The Year 2000 and Mental Retardation Current Topics in Mental Health Series Editors: Paul I. Ahmed u.s. Office of International Health, HE W. and Stanley C. Plog Plog Research, Inc. ST A TE MENTAL HOSPITALS: What Happens When They Close Edited by Paull. Ahmed and Stanley C. Plog COPING WITH PHYSICAL ILLNESS Edited by Rudolf H. Moos THE PRINCIPLES AND TECHNIQUES OF MENTAL HEALTH CONSULTATION Edited by Stanley C. Plog and Paul I. Ahmed TOWARD A NEW DEFINITION OF HEALTH Edited by Paull. Ahmed and George V. Coelho THE YEAR 2000 AND MENTAL RETARDATION Edited by Stanley C. Plog and Miles B. Santamour The Year 2000 and Mental Retardation Edited by Stanley C. Plog President, Plog Research, Inc. Reseda (Los Angeles), California and Miles B. Santamour President's Committee on Mental Retardation Washington, D.C. PLENUM PRESS . NEW YORK AND LONDON ISBN-13: 978-1-4615-9130-6 e-ISBN-13: 978-1-4615-9128-3 DOl: 10.1007/978-1-4615-9128-3 © 1980 Plenum Press, New York Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1980 A Division of Plenum Publishing Corporation 227 West 17th Street, New York, N.Y. 10011 All rights reserved No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming, recording, or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher Contributors Marvin Adelson, Ph.D. Professor, School of Architecture and Urban Planning, University of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California Henry V. Cobb, Ph.D. Former Vice Chairman, President's Committee on Mental Retardation, Washington, D.C. Roderic Gorney, M.D., Ph.D. Associate Professor of Psychiatry and Di rector, Program on Psychosocial Adaptation and the Future, University of California at Los Angeles School of Medicine, Los Angeles, California Harold A. Linstone, Ph.D. Professor of Systems Science and Director, Fu tures Research Institute, Portland State University, Portland, Oregon William K. Linvill, SC.D. Chairman, Department of Engineering-Eco- nomic Sytems, School of Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, California John McHale, Ph.D. Director, Center for Integrative Studies, State Um- versity of New York at Binghamton, Binghamton, New York (deceased) Burt Nanus, D. B.A. Director, Center for Futures Research, Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California Stanley C. Plog, Ph.D. President, Plog Research, Inc., Reseda (Los An geles), California Miles B. Santamour, M.S.W. Committee Coordinator, President's Com mittee on Mental Retardation, Washington, D.C. v Foreword The future is exciting-frightening-and demanding! As social and eco nomic change accelerates at an ever-increasing rate, we look with awe and wonder at the way in which unanticipated events impact on our lives and change the way we live. We are also frightened about how well we will adapt to the demands of a world that may be structured quite differently from the familiar environment of today. If we are to handle our own futures with some degree of skill and adap tiveness, we need to begin planning today for the dawn of the next century. Otherwise, we may find that events have overrun our capacity to cope. Those of us in the social and helping sectors of the economy have a responsibility for the future welfare of persons who are less able to look out for their own needs or to protect themselves from the vagaries of economic fluctuations or major dislocations in the social fabric of the land. The President's Committee on Mental Retardation is proud of its deci sion to look at the year 2000 and its impact on the mentally retarded. Our goals were straightforward-to understand how unfolding events can affect the lives of the mentally retarded, for good or ill, a generation from now. We elected to use futurists to help us in this effort since their professional armamentarium includes a battery of tools and techniques to fathom the unfathomable. It was an interesting process-mixing social scientists with prognosticators to develop a new and more insightful view of the world. More important, it was an extremely helpful undertaking. The view of the future is much more positive than we had ever anticipated. Finally, our di vining friends raised the point-central to our entire effort-that the future is in part shaped by determined actions that responsible people take today. Individually and collectively, we all make our own future-and for the better. We now feel more confident that mental retardation can be prevented to a great degree, that those who are retarded can be accepted by their com munity, that retarded individuals can receive adequate needed assistance in a humane fashion, and that every retarded individual can receive his full entitle ments and responsibilities as a citizen. The primary effort was directed by Stanley C. Plog and Miles B. Santamour. They not only did a superb and noteworthy job in developing vii viii FOREWORD the framework for the cooperative efforts of the PCMR staff and specialists with the futurists. but pulled together the excellent material that is contained in this volume. The results are noteworthy and should set the stage for other human-problem-centered organizations to utilize the services of professionals who can help us dispel the clouds of confusion that accom pany novice attempts to ponder our future. There is meat for many in this volume: the professional therapist who works with the families of the retarded. the social scientist who is interested in the process of discovering more about the future. the futurist who is curious about the utility of this type of interdisciplinary effort. and the families of the mentally retarded who are anxious to know what hope there is that the world may be a better place tomorrow in terms of the care and support services that will be available for their children. Read on. for there is much to be learned. And there is hope. The world does not appear to be as uninhabitable in the year 2000 as many would have us think. Fred J. Krause Executive Director President's Committee on Mental Retardation Contents INTRODUCTION: MENTAL RETARDATION AND FUTURES RESEARCH Perspectives on the President's Committee on Mental Retardation ............................................ . Miles B. Santamour The Nature of Mental Retardation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Henry V. Cobb Futurists and Their Methodologies .......................... . 15 Burt Nanus VIEWS OF THE FUTURE Chapter I Mental Retardation and the Future: A Conceptual Approach 19 John McHale Chapter 2 Living and Working in the Year 2000: Some Implications for Mental Retardation Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 Burt Nanus Chapter 3 The Impact of Technological Advances on the Lives of Mentally Retarded Persons in the Year 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 William K. Linvill ix x CONTENTS Chapter 4 The Postindustrial Society and Mental Retardation. . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 Harold A. Linstone Chapter 5 Mental Retardation: Toward a Different Kind of Future 155 Marvin Adelson Chapter 6 Mental Retardation Management: Manifestation of and Mandate for Human Survival. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179 Roderic Gorney OVERVIEW Chapter 7 The Year 2000 and Mental Retardation: An Interpretation and Critique . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 20 I Stanley C. Plog Index. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227 Mental Retardation and INTRODUCTION Futures Research Perspectives on the President's Committee on Mental Retardation Miles B. Santamour Committee Coordinator President's Committee on Mental Retardation Washington, D.C. 20201 Major national interest in the prevention and remediation of mental retar dation developed in the 1950s. In 1961 the interest accelerated when President Kennedy appointed the President's Panel on Mental Retardation to assess the problem of retardation and propose policies and programs for meeting it. One year later the panel presented to the President" A Proposed Program for National Action to Combat Mental Retardation," which listed 95 recommendations for action. Following the work of the panel, President Kennedy created an Office of the Special Assistant to the President on Mental Retardation, which was responsible for acquainting the states with the panel report and the adminis tration's program. This office continued briefly under President Johnson. It was then decided that there needed to be a permanent national advi sory committee to the President to continue to advise him on matters affect ing prevention and remediation of mental retardation and the role of retarded people in American society. Consequently, in May 1966 President Johnson issued an executive order creating the President's Committee on Mental Retardation (PCMR). The order designated as members the secretary of the Department of Health, Education and Welfare (HEW Chairman), the secretary of the Department of Labor (DOL), the director of the Office of Economic Opportunity (OEO), and 21 citizens. In carrying out the order, since renewed, the committee is responsible for coordinating relevant federal agencies, providing liaison among federal, state, and local governments and organizations, and developing and