World Economic Performance Dedicated to the memory of Angus Maddison scholar, mentor, great friend and a well wisher who sadly passed away during the preparation of the manuscript Angus Maddison, 1926–2010 Friend or stranger, stop and shed a tear: Gentle Angus Maddison lies here. Joining the social sciences with art, He took human misery to heart Andmixedtime, space and math to set men free From want. Angus hated poverty. A poem by Roger Dickinson-Brown World Economic Performance Past, Present and Future Essays in celebration of the life and work of Angus Maddison Edited by D.S. Prasada Rao School of Economics The University of Queensland Brisbane, Australia Bart van Ark The Conference Board New York, USA Faculty of Economics and Business University of Groningen Groningen, The Netherlands Edward Elgar Cheltenham, UK • Northampton, MA, US © D.S. Prasada Rao and Bart van Ark 2013 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical or photocopying, recording, or otherwise without the prior permission of the publisher. Published by Edward Elgar Publishing Limited The Lypiatts 15 Lansdown Road Cheltenham Glos GL50 2JA UK Edward Elgar Publishing, Inc. William Pratt House 9 Dewey Court Northampton Massachusetts 01060 USA A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Control Number: 2012930566 This book is available electronically in the ElgarOnline.com Economics Subject Collection, E-ISBN 978 1 78195 355 6 ISBN 978 1 84844 848 3 Printed and bound by MPG PRINTGROUP, UK 4 0 Contents Contributors vii Acknowledgements ix 1. Introduction 1 D.S. Prasada Rao and Bart van Ark 2. Six Transformations in China: 960–2030 7 Angus Maddison 3. The Needham Puzzle, the Weber Question and China’s Miracle: Long Term Performance since the Sung Dynasty 42 Justin Yifu Lin 4. An Indian Miracle? 88 Deepak Lal 5. Analysis of Russian Performance since 1990 and Future Outlook 111 Stanislav Menshikov 6. Japan’s Alternating Phases of Growthand Future Outlook 136 Kyoji Fukao and Osamu Saito 7. Making the International System Work for the Platinum Age 162 Ross Garnaut 8. Total Factor Productivity and Economic Growth in Indonesia 193 Pierre van der Eng 9. Explaining Success and Failure in Economic Development 227 Adam Szirmai 10. Past, Present and Future Economic Growth in Latin America 268 André A. Hofman and Francisco Villarreal 11. Europe’s Productivity Performance in Comparative Perspective: Trends, Causes and Projections 290 Bart van Ark,Mary O’Mahonyand Marcel P. Timmer v vi Contents 12. Revisiting U.S. Productivity Growth over the Past Century with a View of the Future 317 Robert J. Gordon Epilogue:Life and Work of Angus Maddison Confessions of a Chiffrephile 363 Angus Maddison Research Objectives and Results, 1952–2002 400 Angus Maddison A Story Behind Each Number –Angus Maddison (1926– 2010) 412 Derek Blades, Bart van Ark and Harry X. Wu Index 420 Contributors Bart van Ark Chief Economist, The Conference Board, New York, USA and Professor of Economics, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands. Derek Blades Consultant in economic statistics and statistical office management, Blades Consultancy Services,28 Bd.Eugène Tripet, 06400 Cannes, France. Pierre van der Eng School of Management, Marketing & International Business, College of Business and Economics, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia. Kyoji Fukao Professor, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Kunitachi City, Tokyo, Japan. Ross Garnaut Professor of Economics, Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia. Robert J. Gordon Stanley G. Harris Professor of the Social Sciences, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois, USA; NBER, Cambridge, MA, USA and CEPR, London, UK. André A. Hofman Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, Santiago, Chile. Deepak Lal James S. Coleman Professor of International Development Studies, University of California, Los Angeles, USA. Angus Maddison As the Manuscript was prepared, Angus Maddison, Visiting Professor, United Nations University (MERIT), Maastricht, Netherlands and Professor Emeritus, University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands, sadly passed away on 27th April 2010. Stanislav Menshikov Moscow School of Economics,Moscow State University, Moscow, U.S.S.R. vii viii Contributors Mary O’Mahony Professor of International Industrial Economics, Birmingham Business School,University House,Birmingham,U.K. D.S. Prasada Rao Professor of Economics, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia. Osamu Saito Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Kunitachi City, Tokyo, Japan. Adam Szirmai Professorial Fellow, UNU-MERIT and Professor of Development Economics, Maastricht Graduate School of Governance, Maastricht University,Maastricht,The Netherlands. Marcel P.Timmer Professor of Economics, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen, Groningen,TheNetherlands. Francisco Villarreal Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, Santiago, Chile. Harry X. Wu Professor of Economics, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Tokyo, Japan. Justin Yifu Lin Senior Vice President, Development Economics, and Chief Economist, The World Bank, Washington DC, USA. Acknowledgements Our sincere thanks are due to all the contributors to this volume for the time and effort they have put into the preparation and subsequent revisions of their chapters. But this book would not have been possible without constant encouragement and involvement by Late Professor Angus Maddison who was involved in this project right from the conception stage. We are deeply sorry that Angus has not lived to see the completion of the project and the manuscript in print. We sincerely hope that the completed version would have met with his approval. We are also thankful to the Publisher, Edward Elgar, for making it possible to include additional material on the Life and Work of Angus Maddison, and to Managing Editors of The Review of Income and Wealth for allowing us to reprint Angus’ obituary by Derek Blades, Harry X. Wu and Bart van Ark. Our sincere thanks are due to Roger Dickinson-Brown, a long time friend of Angus, for writing the poem. Finally, we thank Visala Rao who has persevered with the difficult job of formatting and proof reading of various chapters. D.S. Prasada Rao Bart van Ark Editors ix