Historic, archived document Do not assume content reflects current scientific knowledge, policies, or practices. jih/A iy1/ United States Ui Department of e Agriculture World Agricultural Foreign Agricultural Service Production Circular Series WAP 6-94 June 1994 World Coffee Production 1994/95 Forecast Indonesia Brazil 7.00 23.50 o cf Mexico c? Ethiopia (. > y ) 4.30 C. 3.20 \'/~s rn rPC y ro Cote d’Ivoire ■p Uganda 3.20 3.00 o & iP Colombia 12.50 Other 30.60 Vietnam 3.30 (Million 60-Kilogram Bags) Production Articles This Month i World Coffee; World' Rice 1-v • World Tobacco ■■World Citrus Brazil Citrus Trip Report Tomatoes for Processing ■ Mexico Grain Trip Report M Russia and: Ukraine (a rain Trip Report Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board - USDA This report draws on information from USDA's global network of agricultural attaches and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments, other foreign source materials, and results of office analysis. Estimates of U.S. acreage, yield, and production are from the USDA's Agricultural Statistics Board, except where noted. This report is based on unrounded data; numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. This report reflects official USDA estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-291), June 9, 1994. This report was prepared by the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division (PECAD), FAS/USDA, AgBox 1045, Washington, D.C. 20250-1045. Further information may be obtained by writing to the division, by calling (202) 720-0888, or by FAX (202) 720-8880. The next issue of World Agricultural Production will be released after 3 p.m. Eastern time on JULY 13, 1994. CONVERSION TABLE Metric tons to bushels Wheat & soybeans — MT * 36.7437 Corn, sorghum, rye MT * 39.36825 = Barley = MT * 45.929625 Oats MT * 68.894438 = Metric tons to 480-lb bales Cotton = MT * 4.592917 Metric tons to hundredweight Rice = MT * 22.04622 Area & Weight 1 hectare = 2.471044 acres 1 kilogram = 2.204622 pounds The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs). Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA Office of Communications at (202) 720-5881 (voice) or (202) 720-7808 (TDD). To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington D.C., 20250, or call (202) 720-7327 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD). USDA is an equal employment opportunity employer. , June 1994 Production Estimates & Crop Assessment Div., FAS USDA 2 NOTE National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) forecasts are used for U.S. winter wheat. For other crops, March 31 NASS Prospective Plantings report is used for planted area, and methods used to project harvested area and yield are noted below. Wheat: Harvested area for spring wheat (including durum) is projected using harvested-to-planted ratios by State for 1984-93 (excluding high and low years). Projected yield is based on 1980-93 State trends, weighted by area. Winter wheat harvested area and yields are reported in May 10 Crop Production. Corn: Harvested area is projected by using the relationship between planted and harvested area for 1991- 93. Projected yield is derived from simple linear trend fit over the 1960-93 period. Sorghum and barley: Harvested area is projected by using the relationship between planted and harvested area for 1991-93 and projected yield is derived from a simple linear trend fit over the 1960-93 period. Oats: Harvested area is reported in March 31 Prospective Plantings; projected yield is a simple average for 1984-93. Rice: Harvested area is reported using harvested-to-planted ratios for 1991-93. Projected yield is derived from a simple linear trend fit for 1964-93. June 1994 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Div., FAS, USDA 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS June 1 994 SUBJECT PAGE PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS FOR 1994/95 Wheat. 7 Coarse Grains. 7 Rice. 7 Oilseeds. 8 Cotton. 8 PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS FOR 1993/94 Wheat. 8 Coarse Grains. 8 Rice. 8 Oilseeds. 9 Cotton. 12 TABLES Table 1. U.S. Crop Acreage, Yield, and Production . 13 Table 2. World Crop Production Summary . 14 Table 3, Wheat Area, Yield, and Production: World and Selected Countries and Regions . 15 Table 4. Total Coarse Grain Area, Yield, and Production: World and Selected Countries and Regions . 16 Table 5. Corn Area, Yield, and Production: World and Selected Countries and Regions . 17 Table 6. Barley Area, Yield, and Production: World and Selected Countries and Regions . 18 Table 7. Oats Area, Yield, and Production: World and Selected Countries and Regions . 19 Table 8. Rye Area, Yield, and Production: World and Selected Countries and Regions . 20 Table 9. Sorghum Area, Yield, and Production: World and Selected Countries and Regions . 21 Table 10. Rice Area, Yield, and Production: World and Selected Countries and Regions . 22 Table 11. Total Oilseed Area, Yield, and Production: World and Selected Countries and Regions . 23 Table 12. Soybean Area, Yield, and Production: World and Selected Countries and Regions . 24 Table 13. Cottonseed Area, Yield, and Production: World and Selected Countries and Regions . 25 June 1994 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Div., FAS, USDA SUBJECT PAGE Table 14. Peanut Area, Yield, and Production: World and Selected Countries and Regions 26 Table 15. Sunflowerseed Area, Yield, and Production: World and Selected Countries and Regions 27 Table 16. Rapeseed Area, Yield, and Production: World and Selected Countries and Regions 28 Table 17. Copra, Palm Kernel, and Palm Oil Production: World and Selected Countries and Regions 29 Table 18. Cotton Area, Yield, and Production: World and Selected Countries and Regions 30 Table 19. Reliability of June Production Projections . . 31 MAPS Map 1. World Agricultural Weather Highlights . 32 Map 2. FSU (Western) Average Heading Dates for Winter Grains . 38 Map 3. FSU Winter Grain Assessment Travel. 79 WEATHER BRIEFS Canada: Timely Rainfall Favors Prairie Crops. 33 Australia: Rains Boost Moisture for Winter Grain Establishment. 33 Romania and Bulgaria: Heavy Rains Finally Reach the East . 33 Europe (EU): Mostly Favorable Conditions Continue. 33 PRODUCTION BRIEFS Australia: Sultana/Raisin Production Estimate Revised Downward . 34 Brazil: Beef Packers Experiencing Financial Difficulties . 34 Canada: Trial Plan Expected to Boost Broiler Production. 34 Japan: Livestock Producers Petition Government for Reforms. 34 China: Tea Production Continues Trending Upward . 35 United States: Crop Progress and Winter Wheat Conditions . 35 Russia: Sugar Production Estimate Revised Upward. 37 Former Soviet Union: Weather and Crop Developments . 37 FEATURE COMMODITY ARTICLES World Green Coffee Production . 39 Foreign Rice Crop Outlook for 1994/95 . 42 World Tobacco Production. 44 Citrus Production in Selected Countries. 58 Brazil Citrus Trip Report . 63 Processing Tomato Production in Selected Countrirs. 65 Mexico Grain Trip Report. 68 Russia and Ukraine Grain Trip Report . 70 FEATURE TABLES Table 20. Green Coffee: Total Production in Selected Countries. 41 Table 21. Total Unmanufactured Tobacco . 46 June 1994 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Div., FAS, USDA 5 SUBJECT PAGE Table 22. Flue-Cured Tobacco. 49 Table 23. Burley Tobacco. 51 Table 24. Oriental Tobacco. 53 Table 25. Light Air-Cured Tobacco . 54 Table 26. Dark Air/Sun-Cured Tobacco . 55 Table 27. Dark Air-Cured Tobacco, Cigar. 56 Table 28. Dark Fire-Cured Tobacco . 57 Table 29. Citrus Production in Selected Countries . 60 Table 30. Processing Tomato Production in Selected Countrirs . 67 Table 31. Russia: Area, Yield, and Production of Grains. 77 Table 32. Ukraine: Area, Yield, and Production of Grains. 78 June 1994 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Div., FAS, USDA 6 PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS FOR 1994/95 June 1994 WHEAT 1994/95 . Change Current Monthly Monthly From Country Estimate Chanae Chanae 1993/94 Comments MMT MMT (%) <%) World 552.0 -0.1 -0 -2 A decrease in foreign output more than offsett an increase in the United States. United States 64.6 + 0.5 + 1 -1 Production is estimated higher this month due to an upward adjustment in winter wheat yields. Total Foreign 487.4 -0.5 -0 -2 Production is estimated down from 1993/94 due to a reduction in Ukraine. Ukraine 17.0 -0.5 -3 -22 Production is estimated lower due to a decline in yield potential. COARSE GRAINS 1994/95 Change Current Monthly Monthly From Country Estimate Chanae Chanae 1993/94 Comments MMT MMT (%) (%) World 847.6 + 2.0 + 0 + 7 The 1994/95 crops are forecast higher due to increases outside the United States. United States 249.1 NC NC + 33 No change this month. Total Foreign 598.5 + 2.0 + 0 -0 Production is slightly higher due to an increase in Brazil that is partially offset by a decrease in Ukraine. Brazil 31.8 + 3.0 + 10 -5 Production is forecast higher for corn due to an upward area revision for the 1993/94 corn crop. Ukraine 19.2 -1.0 -5 -2 Production is estimated lower due to a decline in corn and barley area. RICE (MILLED BASIS) RICE (MILLED BASIS) FORECAST FOR 1994/95: World production is forecast at 349.7 million tons, up 3.8 million or 1 percent from 1993/94. Foreign production for 1994/95 is forecast at 344.0 million tons, down 5.0 million or 1 percent from last month, but up 1 percent from 1 993/94. Rice production in the United States is forecast at 5.7 million tons, up 0.7 million or 15 percent from 1993/94. June 1 994 Production Estimates & Crop Assessment Div., FAS, USDA 7 OILSEEDS OILSEEDS FORECAST FOR 1994/95: World production is forecast at a record 239.0 million tons, up 4.5 million or 2 percent from 1993/94. Foreign production for 1994/95 is forecast at 171.8 million tons, up 4.1 million or 4 percent from 1993/94. Total oilseed production in the United States is forecast at 67.2 million tons, up 9.4 million or 16 percent from 1993/94. COTTON COTTON FORECAST FOR 1994/95: World production is forecast at 84.0 million bales, unchanged from last month, but up 8.0 million or 10 percent from 1993/94. Total foreign production is forecast at 66.3 million bales, unchanged from last month, but up 6.4 million bales or 11 percent form the 1 993/94. U.S. production is forecast at 17.7 million bales, unchanged from last month, but up 1.6 million or 10 percent from 1993/94. PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS FOR 1993/94 WHEAT WHEAT: World wheat production for 1993/94 is estimated at 561.5 million tons, up 1.3 million or less than 1 percent from last month's estimate. A revision in China's wheat production increased the total foreign output for 1 993/94. COARSE GRAINS COARSE GRAINS: World production for 1 993/94 is estimated at 788.7 million tons, up 3.3 million or less than 1 percent from last month's estimate. Production is estimated higher mainly due to an increase in Chinese and Brazilian corn production. However, corn production in South Africa and Zimbabwe are lowered in view of revised Government estimates. WORLD RICE (MILLED BASIS) . 1993/94 . Change Current Monthly Monthly From Country Estimate Change Change 1992/93 Comments MMT MMT (%) (%) World 346.0 -2.0 -1 -2 The 1993/94 crop increased this month due to changes outside the United States. United States 5.0 NC NC -13 No change this month. Total Foreign 341.0 -2.0 -1 -2 Production is estimated higher this month due to a decrease in China, but increases in Brazil and Vietnam. China 124.4 -3.0 -2 -5 Production is estimated lower due to a revision in China's State Statistical Bureau's report detailing a total rice estimate. Brazil 7.4 + 0.4 + 6 + 9 Production is estimated higher due to increased yield. Favorable precipitation in the North/Northeast boosted the national yield to a record level. Vietnam 14.6 + 0.2 + 1 + 3 Production is raised due to excellent harvest conditions for the winter crop in the south and continued favorable prospects for the summer crop. June 1 994 Production Estimates & Crop Assessment Div., FAS, USDA 8