Weather and Society Weather and Society Toward Integrated Approaches Eve Gruntfest This edition first published 2018 © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, except as permitted by law. Advice on how to obtain permission to reuse material from this title is available at http://www.wiley. com/go/permissions. The right of Eve Gruntfest, to be identified as the author of this work has been asserted in accordance with law. Registered Offices John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, USA John Wiley & Sons Ltd, The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex, PO19 8SQ, UK Editorial Office 9600 Garsington Road, Oxford, OX4 2DQ, UK For details of our global editorial offices, customer services, and more information about Wiley products visit us at www.wiley.com. 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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication data applied for ISBN: 9780470669846 Cover Design: Wiley Cover Image: © Dreef/Gettyimages Set in 10/12pt Warnock by SPi Global, Pondicherry, India 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 v Contents Acknowledgments x Preface xii 1 The Need for Integrated Approaches to Weather and Society 1 1.1 Rationale for This Book 1 Research Spotlight Box: Forecasts are Improving Dramatically 3 1.2 The Audience for This Book 8 1.3 Defining Weather and Society: Integrated Approaches 10 1.4 What Social Sciences Have in Common with Each Other and with Atmospheric Science? 15 1.5 Social Science Methodologies 18 1.5.1 Surveys 18 1.5.2 Direct Observations 19 1.5.3 Participatory Action Research 19 1.5.4 Focus Groups 20 1.6 What Is Not Social Science? 21 1.7 Doing Social Science Versus Incorporating Societal Impacts 22 1.8 Questions for Review and Discussion 23 1.9 Using What You’ve Learned: Homework Assignment From the Chapter 24 References 25 2 History of the Movement to Integrate Social Science Into Atmospheric Science 29 2.1 Early Weather Forecasting for Impacts 29 2.2 Historians and Weather 30 vi Contents 2.3 Weather and Society Efforts Build on Natural Hazards Research and Practice 32 2.3.1 Efforts to Add Social Dimensions to Solving Weather Problems 35 2.3.2 Weather and Society * Integrated Studies—WAS*IS 36 2.3.3 Integrated Warning Team Meetings 39 2.3.4 American Meteorological Society Summer Policy Colloquium 39 2.3.5 Social Science Woven into Meteorology (SSWIM) 39 2.3.6 VORTEX‐Southeast 42 Research Spotlight Box: Doing Social Science Reveals Challenges to Accepted Assumptions 43 2.4 Physical Science Myths Related to Climate and Applicable to Weather 45 2.5 Meteorological Aspects of Non‐Meteorological Hazards 48 2.6 Research That Evaluates What People Did When They Heard a Warning: Hurricane Ike 2008 Case Study 50 2.7 Questions for Review and Discussion 53 2.8 Using What You’ve Learned: Homework Assignment From the Chapter 54 References 55 3 Social Science Partners and the Weather/Society Work They Do 59 3.1 The Partners and How They Do Their Work 61 3.2 Anthropology 64 3.3 Communication 68 3.4 Economics 71 3.5 Geography 76 3.6 Psychology 83 3.7 Sociology 87 3.8 Questions for Review and Discussion 94 3.9 Using What You’ve Learned: Homework Assignment From the Chapter 96 References 97 4 Thirteen Profiles of Leaders in Weather and Social Science 105 4.1 Angle’s Recommendations for Integrating Social Science and Atmospheric Science 108 Contents vii 4.2 Dr. Becker’s Recommendations for Integrating Social Science and Atmospheric Science 109 4.3 Dr. Demuth’s Recommendations for Integrating Social Science and Atmospheric Science 112 4.4 Dobson’s Recommendations for Integrating Social Science and Atmospheric Science 114 4.5 Fransen’s Recommendations for Integrating Social Science and Atmospheric Science 116 4.6 Holthaus’ Recommendations for Integrating Social Science and Atmospheric Science 118 4.7 Dr. Lazrus’ Recommendations for Integrating Social Science and Atmospheric Science 120 4.8 Dr. Morss’ Recommendations for Integrating Social Science and Atmospheric Science 122 4.9 Moulton’s Recommendations for Integrating Social Science and Atmospheric Science 124 4.10 Dr. Ruin’s Recommendations for Integrating Social Science and Atmospheric Science 126 4.11 Dr. Schumacher’s Recommendations for Integrating Social Science and Atmospheric Science 127 4.12 Spinney’s Recommendations for Integrating Social Science and Atmospheric Science 129 4.13 Vitols’ Recommendations for Integrating Social Science and Atmospheric Science 131 4.14 Questions for Review and Discussion 132 4.15 Using What You’ve Learned: Homework Assignment From the Chapter 132 References 133 5 Moving Toward Integrated Weather and Society Research and Practice—A New Paradigm 134 5.1 How Social Scientists and Meteorologists Work Together to Create New Scientific Conceptual Models and Methods: Start with Adjacent Projects 134 Case Study: Schools and Tornado Saferooms 135 Case Study: Storm Surge Warnings From the NWS—Moving From Adjacent Social Scientific Collaboration to Integrative Collaborations 137 Case Study: Required Integrated Research: National Science Foundation Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems Program 139 viii Contents 5.2 Increased Popularity for How Important It Is for Meteorologists to Understand Some Social Science 140 5.3 Possible New Common Ground for Integrated Approaches to Weather and Society: Emergence of Convergence Science 140 5.4 Socio‐Meteorological Testbeds 145 5.5 Wicked Problems and Momentum In the Movement Toward Integrated Weather‐Society Science 146 5.6 Hard or Soft Science? Evening the Playground Between the Sciences 147 5.7 Human Machine Interface 148 5.8 Questions for Review and Discussion 151 5.9 Using What You’ve Learned: Homework Assignment From the Chapter 151 References 152 6 Ways to Be Part of the Transformation to Integrated Weather Studies 156 6.1 Be Part of the Move From WAS to IS 156 6.2 Understand the Cycle of Change 157 6.3 Keep the Momentum Going Toward the Integration of Social and Atmospheric Science 160 6.4 Build Durable Partnerships—Recognize the Power of Networking 161 6.5 Support May Come From Surprising Sources 163 6.6 Five Key Research Priorities for New Hybrid Weather Society Researchers and Practitioners 163 6.7 How Science Changes 173 6.8 Socio‐Hydrology Emerges 174 6.9 New Integrated Disciplines on the Horizon 175 6.10 Changing the Paradigm Takes Time and Will Require Patience 177 6.11 Hybrids By Design—Socio‐Hydro‐Meteorology 178 6.12 How to Become a Participant in the Movement to Integrate the Social Sciences and Atmospheric Science 180 6.13 The Challenges Are Not Overwhelming 181 6.13.1 Scientific Budgets Are Lean 181 6.13.2 Be Patient and Optimistic and Keep Pushing 181 Contents ix 6.14 Meteorologists Embracing Social Science Is a First Step 182 6.14.1 Be Part of the Integrated Studies Movement 183 6.14.2 Work Out Wide‐Open Ways for Partners to Thrive 183 6.15 Work for the Longer Term 184 6.15.1 New Integrated Graduate Programs and New Integrated Training Models 184 6.15.2 Positive Outlook for Careers for People with a Background in Integrated Studies 185 6.15.3 Climate Change will Exacerbate the Need for Integrated Weather–Society Research and Practice 186 6.16 Questions for Review and Discussion 188 6.17 Using What You’ve Learned: Homework Assignment From the Chapter 188 References 190 Appendices Appendix A: List of Acronyms 194 Appendix B: Blogs and Websites that Integrate Weather and Society 196 Appendix C: Other Relevant Web Resources 199 Addendum 200 Index 203 x Acknowledgments This book began as an effort to support and amplify two ambitious efforts that were passionately dedicated to changing the way that the social sciences and atmospheric sciences collaborate to improve weather forecasting effectiveness, reduce the number of lives lost to severe weather, and to develop a cadre of hybrid socio‐meteorologists. The two main efforts toward these goals were the WAS*IS movement (Weather and Society * Integrated Studies) and the SSWIM or Social Science Woven into Meteorology program. When funding for both of these programs ended and I faced the prospect that this textbook would need to be historical and not totally optimistic, progress on this book slowed. The book retains a cautiously optimistic tone even though a close examination in 2017 reveals that atmospheric scien- tists, without a clear understanding of or appreciation for social sci- ence, are doing most of the talking at the intersection of weather and society and there are only a handful of examples of woven collabora- tions between atmospheric scientists and social scientists. My graduate school mentor and advisor, Dr. Gilbert F. White, inspired me. Gilbert’s brilliance had powerful policy implications for natural hazard mitigation at the local, state, federal, and international levels, and his tireless persistent dedication to bringing all stakehold- ers, researchers, and students together for decision making kept me focused on getting this book finished. I began my career studying the behavior of people during the 1976 Big Thompson flood in Colorado (Gruntfest, 1977) and the flash flood research led to a broader passion for understanding flash floods and warnings nationally and interna- tionally (Gruntfest and Handmer, 2001). Forty years later, I am still highly motivated and engaged with ways to improve flash flood warnings.