Gulbenkian Think Tank on Water and the Future of Humanity Water and the Future of Humanity Revisiting Water Security Water and the Future of Humanity Gulbenkian Think Tank on Water and the Future of Humanity Water and the Future of Humanity Revisiting Water Security The Gulbenkian Think Thank on Water and the Future of Humanity Benedito Braga, Colin Chartres, William J. Cosgrove, Luis Veiga da Cunha, Peter H. Gleick, Pavel Kabat, Mohamed Ait Kadi, Daniel P. Loucks, Jan Lundqvist, Sunita Narain, Jun Xia (in alphabetic order) Gulbenkian Think Tank on Water and the Future of Humanity Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation Avenida de Berna 45A 1067-001 Lisbon , Portugal ISBN 978-3-319-01456-2 ISBN 978-3-319-01457-9 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-01457-9 Springer New York Heidelberg Dordrecht London Library of Congress Control Number: 2013946034 © Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation 2014 This work is subject to copyright. 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Violations are liable to prosecution under the respective Copyright Law. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specifi c statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. While the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication, neither the authors nor the editors nor the publisher can accept any legal responsibility for any errors or omissions that may be made. The publisher makes no warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein. Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com) Foreword Improved water supply and sanitation contributes to human dignity, health, education, and economic development. It is also increasingly clear that children and adults suffering from diarrhea, as a result of unsafe water and lack of sanitation facilities, cannot fully absorb the nutrients they consume, a condition often referred to as environmental enteropathy. Water has no substitute and the demands for it are increasing. Food and energy production along with industrial activity increasingly compete for the same water to meet the needs of a growing world population. At the same time, we are now seeing the impacts of climate change on water resources management. This book is the result of 2 years of fruitful discussion about water and the future of humanity among 11 of the world’s experts in water resources management under the sponsorship of the Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation. They have examined the major challenges that we face today and that our children will face in the future. They describe the use of water by sector and geographic area, the benefi ts for humans, and the way in which water use impacts other sectors. They remind us that the source of all our water is precipitation and that water resources are continuously replenished through the hydrological cycle—a cycle driven by energy from the sun. Natural and man-made ecosystems, of which humans are a part, play a vital role in water resources dynamics. The fragility of ecosystems to over-abstraction and pol- lution is highlighted. This is a book not only about water management challenges but also about water’s value across multiple sectors. We fail to recognize basic facts. The truth is that often water is undervalued in many of the products and services it provides. It is obvious that we must urgently manage our water use more effi ciently, even so, under optimistic future scenarios; there could still be millions excluded from access to water and the goods and services that water provides. Wealthy countries and societies can afford expensive technology or purchase what they need on the world market. Countries and people trapped by poverty and suffering as a result of climate change may not have this luxury. In describing the challenges, the authors send a message of hope. There will almost certainly be advances in technology and know-how in the years to come. They describe technological, economic, and institutional advances already being implemented by decision makers in different settings throughout the world. They v vi Foreword conclude that by replicating and scaling up these advances we can overcome the challenges we face to create a water-secure world. Leadership, vision along with individual and collective action will help secure the future we want. December 2012 HRH the Prince of Orange, Chair, UN Secretary General’s Advisory Board on Water Supply and Sanitation Prol ogue The Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation has a long history of taking an interest in global issues that affect the world today and can, eventually, create serious problems and constraints to the development of humanity. More recently, it has given due consideration to the analysis of environmental problems and processes. The conver- gence of these two concerns led to the creation of the “Gulbenkian Think Tank on Water and the Future of the Humanity,” initiated in 2010, in the context of the for- mer Gulbenkian Environment Program. One of the purposes of the Think Tank was to refl ect on the possibility of future water use creating serious barriers to human development. This possibility has not received suffi cient attention so far and, consequently, the issue is not yet a source of adequate public concern. The Foundation invited 11 highly respected personalities from the science and water management communities to be part of the Think Tank. They have been cho- sen on the strength of their sound knowledge and experience, as well as their broad vision of freshwater issues and problems. The members of the Think Tank come from different areas of knowledge and different geographic regions. They were all invited on a personal basis, not as representatives of any organizations or institu- tions they are associated with. As a result of its activity, the Gulbenkian Think Tank has produced the present book. The Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation expresses its deep gratitude to the members of the Think Tank for their generous and committed participation in this initiative. We would also like to thank Luis Veiga da Cunha, coordinator of the group. His vision and expertise on these questions enriched the discussions held on this project since its early stage and were an important element in the Foundation’s decision to pursue it. The mandate of the Think Tank was to clarify the main drivers and issues of an eventual water crisis, in order to identify a realistic vision of a water-secure world in the next few decades and to suggest possible ways to cope with related future water problems. In the current times of change and uncertainty, global water security is, no doubt, a major concern. Similarly, interactions and feedback effects running through water and other sectors, such as food, energy, urban development, and biodiversity, pres- ent major and complex challenges in the globalized world of tomorrow. In this vii viii Prologue context, water conveys a potential for crisis and confl ict, since it lays at the core of most things which are important for human life. Moreover water, although renew- able, is limited and has no substitutes. We are, thus, convinced that this initiative is a timely effort. We believe that the results of the “Think Tank on Water and the Future of Humanity” represent a valu- able contribution for ongoing debates on global sustainable development. In par- ticular, they could be helpful to clarify the need for a global water governance, as a cooperative arrangement to ensure improved living standards for the next generations. Artur Santos Silva President, Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation Pref ace The future does not belong to anybody. There are no precursors, only latecomers. Jean Cocteau The Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation in Lisbon, Portugal, decided to create an international Think Tank to analyze noticeable features of the dynamic interactions between freshwater systems and society in the twenty-fi rst century. This book is the result of such an initiative. I was honored by the invitation of the Foundation Board of Trustees to advise on the composition and working rules of this Think Tank and, later, to act as coordinator of the Think Tank activity. The aim of the Gulbenkian Think Tank was to enhance present knowledge on the role of water in the world. Its refl ections addressed water use until 2050, as well as the state of water resources in the planetary environment. The Think Tank has also refl ected on the possible creation of serious barriers to development, caused by water-related constraints. The Think Tank has examined likely trends, regarding water availability and man- agement, comparing them with the growing water demand from various sectors. The Think Tank has also analyzed the main driving forces at play, in order to access the kind of human effort that is feasible and desirable to cope with future situations. The members of the Gulbenkian Think Tank are (in alphabetical order): Prof. Benedito Braga (P resident , World Water Council ; Professor , Escola Politécnica da Universidade de São Paulo , Brazil ); Dr. Colin Chartres (D irector General , International Water Management Institute — IWMI , C olombo , S ri Lanka ); Dr. William J. Cosgrove (H onorary President World Water Council , Montreal , Canada ); Prof. Luis Veiga da Cunha (P rofessor , Universidade Nova de Lisboa , Lisbon , Portugal ); Dr. Peter Gleick (P resident , Pacifi c Institute , Oakland , USA ); Prof. Pavel Kabat (D irector and CEO , International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis — IIASA , Austria ; Professor of Earth Systems Science , Wageningen University , the Netherlands ); Dr. Mohamed Ait Kadi (P resident , Conseil General du Développement Agricole , Rabat , Morocco ); Prof. Daniel P. Loucks (P rofessor , Cornell University , Ithaca , USA ); Prof. Jan Lundqvist (S enior Scientifi c Advisor , Stockholm International Water Institute —S IWI , Stockholm , Sweden ); Ms. Sunita ix