Vladimir Putin and the Evolution of Russian Foreign Policy CHATHAM HOUSE PAPERS The Royal Institute of International Affairs, at Chatham House in London, has provided an independent forum for discussion and debate on current inter- national issues for over eighty years. Its resident research fellows, specialized information resources and range of publications, conferences and meetings span the fields of international politics, economics and security. The Institute is independent of government and other vested interests. Chatham House Papers address contemporary issues of intellectual importance in a scholarly yet accessible way. In preparing the papers, authors are advised by a study group of experts convened by the RIIA, and publication of a paper indicates that the Institute regards it as an authoritative contribution to the public debate. The RIIA is, however, precluded by its Charter from having an institutional view. Opinions expressed in this publication are the respon- sibility of the author. Vladimir Putin and the Evolution of Russian Foreign Policy Edited by Bobo Lo © The Royal Institute of International Affairs, 2003 The Royal Institute of International Affairs Chatham House 10 St James’s Square London SW1Y 4LE http://www.riia.org (Charity Registration No: 208223) Blackwell Publishing Ltd 350 Main Street, Malden, MA 02148-5018, USA 108 Cowley Road, Oxford OX4 1JF, UK 550 Swanston Street, Carlton South, Melbourne, Victoria 3053, Australia Kurfürstendamm 57, 10707 Berlin, Germany The right of Bobo Lo to be identified as the Author of this Work has been asserted in accord- ance with the UK Copyright, Designs, and Patents Act 1988. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, except as permitted by the UK Copyright, Designs, and Patents Act 1988, without the prior permission of the publisher. First published 2003 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data has been applied for ISBN 1-4051-0299-3 (hardback); ISBN 0-4051-0300-0 (paperback) A catalogue record for this title is available from the British Library. Set in 10.5 on 12 pt Caslon with Stone Sans display By Koinonia, Manchester Printed and bound in the United Kingdom by MPG Books Ltd, Bodmin, Cornwall For further information on Blackwell Publishing, visit our website: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com 5 Contents Acknowledgments vii About the author ix 1 The Putin phenomenon 1 2 The inheritance 9 Identity and self-perception 11 The political context 18 The institutional context 21 The foreign policy panorama 23 Conclusion 29 3 The policy-making environment 31 A cast of thousands? 32 The primacy of the individual and the making (and breaking) of policy 42 All together now? 46 Conclusion 49 4 The economic agenda 51 The ‘unaturalness’ of economics 51 Foreign policy and economic reform 53 The integration agenda and globalization 57 The profit motive 61 Geoeconomics and geopolitics 65 Economization and a ‘balanced’ foreign policy 69 5 Security and geopolitics 72 The geopolitical mindset 72 Change and continuity in Russian strategic thinking 74 The evolution of threat perceptions 83 Contents The future of security and geopolitics – from anachronism to rebirth? 94 6 Identity, values and civilization 97 The burden of the past 98 Integration with the West 101 Identification with the West and the evolution of the Russian world-view 109 Conclusion 113 7 11 September and after 115 Policy-making – image and reality 117 The economic agenda – Westernization with qualifications 121 A new conception of security? 123 The repackaging of identity 127 Strategic opportunism 129 Towards a sustainable foreign policy 130 Notes 133 Index 161 5 Acknowledgments The cover of this book credits to one person the work of many. This has been very much a collective enterprise, and I owe an immense debt to numerous friends and colleagues. It is perhaps invidious to single out individuals, but I should like to thank three people in particular. Tania Keefe was an exceptional research assistant, unearthing a rich seam of information about contemporary Russian foreign policy as well as undertaking the ugly task of reading through the initial draft. Ole Lindeman brought to the project the indispensable perspective of the insider, offering critical insights and suggestions while shepherding me through lengthy periods of self-doubt. Finally, Roy Allison was the moving spirit behind the book, a never-ending source of ideas, energy and analytical rigour. Two outstanding institutions have played central roles in this enterprise. The Royal Institute of International Affairs has provided inspiration and intellectual support from the outset. I shall always be grateful to the distin- guished members of the Chatham House study group for their extremely constructive and perceptive comments on the draft text, and to James Nixey and Margaret May for their logistical and moral support. When I was living in Russia, the Carnegie Moscow Center became something of a home from home, and I am especially grateful to Dmitri Trenin and Bob Nurick with- out whom this book would never have been completed. Thank you, also, to Gareth Meyer and Timofei Bordachev for their invaluable suggestions on individual chapters. It has been said that ‘no man is a failure who has good friends’, and I have been unusually blessed in this regard. Lizzy Fisher, Alex Pravda and Riitta Heino, Chris and Antonia Davis, Roy Allison, Ole and Berit Lindeman, and Laetitia Spetschinsky have had the dubious pleasure of putting me up in recent months, during which they offered friendship and support far exceed- ing any reasonable expectations. More generally, I should like to recognize the contribution of all my friends in helping me to get through some difficult Acknowledgments times. Thank you to Lyn and Bruce Minerds, Stephen Shay and Nicola Cade, Linda Kouvaras and Richard Ward, Gareth Meyer and Penny Xirakis, Justine Braithwaite and David Peebles, Glenn and Agnes Waller, Ros and Simon Harrison, Emily Gale, Jill Colgan, Rohi Jaggi, Tatiana Parkhalina, Kostya Eggert, and David and Lena Waterhouse. Last but certainly not least, I am indebted to my family: my mother, to whom this book is dedicated, my father, Helen, Hsiao, Didi and Ping. December 2002 B.L.