"UZBEKISTAN ON THE THRESHOLD OF THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY" CONTENT Preface Introduction Part one THREATS TO SECURITY Chapter 1. Regional conflicts Chapter 2. Religious extremism and fundamentalism Chapter 3. Great-power chauvinism and aggressive nationalism Chapter 4. Ethnic and interethnic contradictions Chapter 5. Corruption and criminality Chapter 6. Regionalism and clans Chapter 7. Ecological problems Part two CONDITIONS OF STABILITY AND GUARANTEES FOR PROGRESS Chapter 8. The Revival of spiritual values and national self-awareness Chapter 9. Building up a state system and strengthening a defensive capability Chapter 10. The creation of democratic institutions and the basis of a civil society Chapter 11. The shaping of market relations and the formation of a class of owners Chapter 12. Developing a strong social policy, and encouraging the growth of an active citizenry Chapter 13. Geostrategic potential; resources of natural and raw material Chapter 14. Human potential; social and industrial infrastructure Chapter 15. Guarantees for large-scale transformation and ni-operation Chapter 16. Integration with the world community Conclusion PREFACE I am glad that English-language edition of my book I can present to those numerous readers who take an interest in the transformations taking place in the post-Soviet area the cardinal reforms taking place in Uzbekistan after independence, the hopes and aspirations of our people, and the aims which we want to achieve in the future. From the mid-19th century onwards, the people of Uzbekistan were under the yoke of Tsarist Russia, From the mid-19th century onwards, the people of Uzbekistan were under the yoke of Tsarist Russia, and later under the yoke of the Soviet Communist Empire, which made this land of unique natural and mineral resources a mere raw-material appendix. The inexcusable depreciation of and in fact the consignment to oblivion of our ancient national traditions, language, culture and customs, as well as the artificial thrusting upon us of an alien ideology and way of life greatly damaged the development of our country. Having now shaken off the chains of the totalitarian system, Uzbekistan has chosen the path of democratic transformation, cardinal reform in all spheres of social life, the construction of a secular and law-based state with a social orientation towards the market economy, and the renaissance of our national identity, culture and spirituality. We inseparably link our future to integration with the world community. Uzbekistan is a part of the world system and that is why the future of our country, our people, depends entirely on the progress and development of world society and on the preservation of peace and stability on our planet. Uzbekistan has a huge potential for the establishment and successful development of foreign economic relations for an active participation in global economic relations. One of these potentials lies in the specific geo-strategic situation of our country, which can be a bridge between the West and East. Other potentials are our valuable and needed mineral resources, our agricultural products, and our advanced economic, manufacturing and social infrastructure. But the principal richness of Uzbekistan is its human potential - our highly educated and industrious people, who bear in themselves both ancient culture and modem knowledge. We do not hide the fact that our young country does not only have a bright future, but unfortunately we also face real threats to our independence and national security. We know enough about them and are facing them with realism. Among them there is the threat of great-power chauvinism, which has plans of a return to the past. Another threat is religious extremism, fanaticism and Islamic fundamentalism. The problem of ecological security remains acute because of the tragedy of the drying up of the Aral Sea, and the industrial pollution of our environment. Many challenges to our security are general. They have an impact on the interests not only of our country, but of the whole Central Asian region. Moreover, they also have a global impact. For almost 20 years in Afghanistan, one of the immediate neighbours of Uzbekistan, the fratricidal war has been going on. This war presents a threat to the peace and stability of the whole of Central and South Asia. Among other threats are international terrorism, the narco-business, and the illegal trade of weapons. These evils can be faced and successfully fought only by common efforts. To my mind, the problems mentioned in this book have importance not only for Uzbekistan but for all people who think towards the future. I hope that in the readers of this book I will find supporters and like-minded people. I hope that the publication of this book in English will contribute to further mutual understanding among peoples and will promote the development and strengthening of economic, scientific, technical and cultural relations between Uzbekistan and the nations of the world. Islam Karimov, President of Uzbekistan, Tashkent, 1997 INTRODUCTION The twentieth century in the life of mankind, countries and nations is coming to an end. It is certain that many of us living in Uzbekistan, leaving aside the current problems of the realities of today, are thinking about who and what we are in this world, where we are going, where and what our place will be when mankind enters the twenty-first century. It is important to assess and be aware of the peculiarity of the period in which we are living, and of the historical significance for the present and future of those changes that have taken place in the world recently and radically transformed the geopolitical structure and map of the world. Newly independent states, by now a traditional collocation used by everyone, have appeared in the world; from their socialist past they have won their political independence by peaceful means and have just entered the path of independent development and renewal of social relationships. States that strive to consolidate their position among other countries of the world, to be equal among equals, to become an integral part of the vast world community. States that face complicated problems: in a short period of time to overcome the tragic consequences of a failed historical experiment and to establish a genuine democratic society in a modern market economy capable of providing adequate living standards for its people and of protecting their rights and freedoms. Uzbekistan belongs to such states. What kind of period will the twenty-first century be for the inhabitants of Uzbekistan? To what extent will their quality of life be improved? Are we completely aware of the difficulties on the road to reform, renewal and progress that we have chosen? Do we have a sufficiently clear idea about the problems, difficulties and trials that we will face on this road? To what extent can we accomplish the goals and tasks that primarily seek to provide a decent life for people living in this beautiful, fertile and rich land? And, of course, one of the most difficult questions is; are we aware of the threats to our stability and security? What can we set off against these threats, and what can guarantee the stable and steady development of our society, and the maintenance of the geopolitical balance in the region where we live? What is our country's potential for stable and steady development in the forthcoming millennium, and what can we offer for a broad and all-round mutually beneficial co-operation with all countries of the world? It was precisely the desire to answer all these and many other questions that has inspired me to write this book. The experience of the formation and development of Uzbekistan and the other newly independent states that have emerged in the post-socialist area has unfortunately shown that there is an underestimation of the threats to security and stability. The challenges are poorly forecasted; sometimes they seem unexpected and result in huge losses, difficulties and, what is more tragic, the loss of human lives. They create an atmosphere of instability and confrontation; they impede the processes of social development and progress; they provoke among the population feelings of insecurity about the future, fear for their lives and the lives of their relatives and friends, What is more important, such unpredictable events may jeopardize the possibility of the country's realizing its political and economic choices. With the downfall of the totalitarian system, the world stopped being bipolar, But is it safer, more stable and steadier? A critical analysis of recently formed polities at both a global and regional level reveals the following characteristics: an analysis of the sometimes painful process of establishing the foundations of an analysis of the sometimes painful process of establishing the foundations of democracy against a background of acute political struggle in a number of countries; the intensive rebirth of national self-identification along with the aspiration of some nations and nationalities for self-determination; the maintenance of conflicts on interethnic grounds; the devaluation of ideological dogma and the growth in various forms of political and religious extremism; the existence of countries with underdeveloped economies and the consequent disastrous situation for their people; growing economic and social differences between countries and peoples, and between social layers within the boundaries of one country. This suggests that the world remains fragile and needs careful treatment. It has been, is and will remain in the foreseeable future extremely complicated and controversial. Today, in order to safeguard global security and balance, the problems associated with the safe and stable development of the newly independent states have become of great significance. The rapidly changing environment and balance of power in the world, and the emergence of new sovereign states in the international arena persistently require new approaches to ensure the stability of states and nations, and the drawing up of new security patterns on the threshold of the twenty-first century. Leaders of each sovereign state must be aware of the huge burden of duty and responsibility arising from the mandate of people whose primary desires have always been to seek the most evident reality: peace, tranquility and well-being. We have no right to forget even for a second about the responsibility we bear to future generations who will continue to build and improve the new house whose foundations we have managed to lay during these years of complicated and controversial development. Today, the entire logic of the last years encourages us to address three basic issues that will condition Uzbekistan's future: how shou1d security be preserved, how should stability be secured, and how can sustainable development on the road to progress be achieved. These simple words - security, stability and sustainability - have deep meanings that we must comprehend. The issues of how to ensure security and of where impulses for further development are to be found constitute strategic problems which have been and will be in the focus of attention of every independent state. The Republic of Uzbekistan has already gained its own experience in the search for answers to these questions. This experience enables several general conclusions to be reached. This book attempts to provide deeper exposure of these conclusions. What are these conclusions? Today Uzbekistan represents not only an area with huge natural and raw material resources, but also an immense market and a place to invest capital. Our country possesses enormous intellectual, spiritual and cultural potential. This, in combination with its unique geographical location, can only create a great geopolitical and geostrategic interest, particularly at a time when a new political and economic order in the world is actively being formed. All who take part in the process of forming a new system of international relations cannot but recognize that the balance of power on the planet will, to a great extent, depend on the choices of the newly independent states in Central Asia. Without any doubt, these choices will in influence, among other things, the results of the controversial processes currently taking place within the Islamic world with all their implications for the world community as a whole. their implications for the world community as a whole. Awareness of this fact should underpin all deliberations about the destiny and development prospects of the Republic of Uzbekistan and all of Central Asia on the threshold of the twenty-first century. Naturally, every such analytical forecast and piece of research deserves to be treated with respect. But one thing is obvious: the region can achieve dynamic and sustainable development and be an honest partner for the world community only if stability and geopolitical balances are preserved. The principle of preserving and maintaining internal and external balances is the only instrument acceptable today for ensuring the steady and stable development of the whole region and preventing conflicts, particularly given that the Central Asian region is a knot of various political, economic, military, transport and ecological problems. These can be solved if geopolitical balance and stability in the region are preserved, And this is, in turn, a substantial contribution towards solving the problems of global security. The experience of Uzbekistan's first years of independent development proves convincingly that social, political and economic stability is a great achievement and has an unsurpassed value. That is why the motto 'People, be watchful 'should keep sounding like an alarm bell. Take care of the things you can and should be proud of: independence, peace, interethnic and civic harmony in society. How to contro1 our own freedom and divert the abundant hazards threatening it today in our controversial and sometimes severe world rests decisively with us. The teaching of our great thinker of the Orient, Abu Nasr Al-Farabi (tenth century), said: Wise management of a state implies reducing and removing danger &om the nation. Now we feel satisfaction that in a short period of time we have been able to achieve much on the path to our chosen objectives. But we have to learn and have a clear vision of the problems which are likely to remain priorities for a long while. The majority of these problems originate in global trends and phenomena. It is therefore very important to make an in-depth analysis of the world around us, a world where we are not alone, where not everything depends on our will and where there are serious threats to our aspirations and objectives. Today it seems insufficient to possess the skills to react adequately to the emerging danger to stability and security. The sustainable growth of the Republic of Uzbekistan depends decisively on how accurately and how deeply we understand the nature of the existing dangers, how promptly we detect their sources and connections, and identify appropriate methods in order to achieve stability in society. What does national security in its broadest sense imply for Uzbekistan? What is our vision of this security? 1. Uzbekistan wholly supports one of the basic principles of the indivisibility of security, that security implies a permanent process and has no limits. 2. Ethnic, regional and local conflicts and aggressive separatism in states cause the main threat to universal security since the end of the 'cold war', especially if this kind of confrontation turns out to be a powerful instrument of political influence in the hands of some states, which seek to maintain and protect their own interests and zones of influence or to change the strategic balance of power in their favor. In every region the problem of maintaining security is far from theoretical. And every region has its own specific features, sources of danger and security factors. specific features, sources of danger and security factors. Unaddressed and unresolved problems in any region may cause a chain reaction in the whole world, and the destabilization of the situation in any region creates a real threat of the violation of the new geopolitical balance. the contours of which are becoming clearer day by day. 3. Owing to its geopolitical situation, Uzbekistan is located in the area where the system of collective security has not yet been adjusted, and that is an additional source of emerging threat. Uzbekistan is actually located in the strategic center of the crescent comprising the richest oil and gas reserves of the Persian Gulf, Caspian Sea and Tarim Basin, that is, in the center of energy resources that, in the circumstances of overall energy deficit, are expected to play a key role in the future of Euro - Asia and ultimately of the whole world. Furthermore, we are part of the region where the interests of Russia do not coincide with those of China, India and other Eastern and Western states. Actually being located at the conjunction of these potentially very powerful Euro-Asian forces, forces which are still in the process of formation and which will undoubtedly determine the image of the twenty-first century, our territory and the territory of the whole region will also be an object of interest for such powerful countries of the Islamic world as Turkey, Pakistan, Iran and Saudi Arabia. There is another source of threat; Uzbekistan is encircled by countries burdened with ethnic, demographic, economic and other problems, to say nothing about our common border with such hotbeds of instability in the region as Afghanistan, torn apart by internal conflicts which are encouraged by religious extremism, ethnic intolerance, drug trafficking and external forces of different kinds, The threat of an escalation of the civil war in neighboring Tajikistan has lasted since our independence. It also should be taken into consideration that these are the countries where the Uzbek diaspora is the most numerous of the diasporas. 4. Regional conflicts will last as long as such dangerous threats and challenges as terrorism, drug trafficking, an illegal arms trade and a massive violation of human rights survive. All these phenomena have no state boundaries. 5. It is our deep conviction that the practice of international relations should stipulate the right of each sovereign state (deriving from its own national interests) to identify the extent of its participation in international entities and collective agreements on security, in order to ensure its own independence and stability. Naturally, we imply that the protection of security and the unacceptability of infringements of other states' interests should be ensured and that there should be no return to the anguish and tragedy of the military-political confrontation of the recent past. 6. Of special importance, we think, are ecological and nuclear security problems. Our desire is to declare the Central Asian region a nuclear-free zone. We are particularly worried that some neighboring states are quite open about their intention to join the ranks of nuclear weapon possessors. The Aral Sea disaster is an issue of global proportions, affecting the interests of people in many countries and with the potential to have a deleterious effect for many generations. Threats to security are of universal character and they imply such phenomena as political extremism, including religion, nationalism and national self-isolation, contradictions of an ethnic, interethnic, local and tribal nature, corruption and criminality, and ecological problems. In other words, the threats listed should provoke a common concern among human beings, even though they take place in various regions and vary in intensity. regions and vary in intensity. This book is an attempt to analyze the nature of the challenges to the security of our country, our nation, our society and each individual citizen - challenges which endanger the course of renewal and progress, and our integration into the world community. We should bear in mind that all of history is based on challenges and responses. We have reliable guarantees to respond adequately to the challenges of history through the broadest co-operation, ranging from person-to-person relations up to the level of international integration. We recognize and must face up to these real and potential threats. At the same time we are aware of our resources, attributes and advantages, Our raw material, and human and industrial resources serve as a solid guarantee for our internal stability and international significance. I believe that our country has a historic chance to occupy a deserved place in world economy, politics and culture in the twenty-first century. We are opening up possibilities for world-wide co-operation for ourselves, and, what is more important, for our children and grandchildren. We are eager to help everybody who genuinely wants to learn in depth about Uzbekistan and its possibilities, and to discover for themselves the indisputable benefits that will result from co-operation with us. As we enter the new millennium, we extend to everyone the hand of friendship and mutual understanding, symbolizing this with the words: security, stability and the sustainability of growth and development, because these realities create a solid basis for the peace, well-being and prosperity of every country, every nation, as a sine qua non for the geopo1itical balance of the planet, enabling each human being to face the future bravely and with confidence. Part one THREATS TO SECURITY Chapter 1. Regional conflicts With the end of the severe confrontation marked by the struggle between two ideological systems that affected all aspects of international life, the world around us, despite all expectations, has not become a safer place with less conflict. The Formation of a new world order is accompanied by an aggravation of the smoldering old regional and subregional conflicts based on various historical, ethnic, political, religious and other motives, which within the previous framework of overall confrontation were 'extinguished' in the interests of one or other pole of power. Moreover, there is the potential threat of new regional conflicts emerging with the involvement of different external forces within the boundaries of their geostrategic ambitions. Since our independence, the collocation 'regional conflicts' has often been heard and it has become a rather common and sinister phrase, Regional conflicts are characteristic of both the developed and developing areas of the world. Behind the bald comments of TV reporters and impressive newspaper headlines reporting on more victims of armed clashes, millions of human destinies are lost, with pain and anguish. Will it be possible to pass by impartially the latest United Nations data which put the number of refugees all over the world today at 50 million? In 1996 13 million were registered as finding asylum in other countries. Almost 30 million people are displaced within their respective states, being forced to leave their homes due to civil wars. What could be more horrible than the fact that any society should become due to civil wars. What could be more horrible than the fact that any society should become accustomed to violence and the bloody tragedy of entire nations, be they ever so far away from their national borders? Such a civil attitude of an individual conditioned by misunderstanding or complacency implies more danger than an open threat of the use of force. These attitudes are absolutely unacceptable for the citizens and the leadership of our country. Regardless of our will or our desire, Uzbekistan, following the disintegration of the USSR, has practically turned out to be a frontline state: on the external perimeters of its borders two hotbeds of crises go on burning (the one in Afghanistan, the other in Tajikistan), having between them taken hundreds of thousands of human lives over the past years. Taking into account the deep and acute crisis in Afghanistan, where the war has been going on for nearly 20 years, and the impact of this crisis on geopolitical processes at a regional and global level, the tragedy it represents is equal to that of the most large-scale and dangerous regional conflicts in the modern world, Without probing deeply into its causes and prerequisites, or the motives of the ongoing crisis in neighboring Tajikistan, it is still necessary to point out that the sustainable and safe development of Uzbekistan, providing the well-being and prosperity of its citizens, is hardly possible when tension around our Republic is periodically aggravated, when military action takes place, and when reasonable peace initiatives are hindered by the misunderstandings of the fighting factions. The tragedy of the events in Afghanistan and Tajikistan will result in a situation where, after extended internal military and political confrontation, these countries will be brought to the brink of self- extermination and loss of statehood. Forthcoming generations are unlikely to forgive those of our contemporaries who caused and justified the stirring up of a stone-cold prejudices. History, when making its fina1 decisions, a1ways separates the husk from the grain and does not accept justifications like the ambitions of certain individuals who hide their own malignant wishes behind the alleged interests of the whole nation. The more the opposing sides are drawn into conflict, aggravating the antagonism, the more evident it becomes that this brings incommensurably larger losses than the supposed acquisitions which participants are hoping to gain. No objective can be justified if the fate of millions of human beings is at stake. The destructive impact of war on society and on the state is not only apparent in economic disaster, which is a natural implication of war, but also in other spheres that are of primary importance for a nation's future. Few people would dare to say that the dissemination of hatred among co-citizens on the basis of any motives whatsoever, the flows of refugees forced to leave their households, the criminalization of society, the turning of war into the sole source of earnings, the undermining of the nation's genotype and the deprivation of the young generation of the possibility of getting primary level education can ensure the Future for such a nation. Already now, observing the events in Afghanistan and Tajikistan, it is possible to state that the conflicts taking place in these countries and the consequences of these conflicts have pushed these two states backwards for dozens of years at least, while world civilization, poised on the threshold of the year 2000, is preparing for the twenty-first century. At the same time, the champions of war try to convince their compatriots that this sacrifice is the price to be paid for a brighter future. So, what is the threat of the regional conflicts to the well-being and the progress of the Republic? At first glance, it may seem that the confrontations taking place close to the borders of Uzbekistan have no direct connection with political, economic and social stability within our state. Of no less political and civic myopia is the opinion that in the future the alarming developments will roll on smoothly avoiding our country, that stability will be preserved of itself and that the future of the country will be secured automatically. Here I can only remark that such 'optimists' cannot imagine the huge efforts it really costs the state to secure peace and order, and to prevent the spilling over of the conflicts and adverse developments on secure peace and order, and to prevent the spilling over of the conflicts and adverse developments on to our soil. It is appropriate to recall here the well-known truth that if acute problems, including those that surround us, are ignored, they lead to a crisis, and an unmanageable crisis in its development sooner or later grows into a destructive cataclysm rejecting state borders and other political, economic, and ethnic realities. In the existing environment of regional crises, the threat to the security of Uzbekistan is not hypothetical, its existence is obvious. It comes into sharp focus if regional confrontation is not just understood as armed antagonism between 6ghting sides within a limited area giving rise to numerous victims among the civilian population, but is analyzed from the point of view of how this situation of opposition influences all aspects of life in a particular society and its neighboring states. The historical development of human civilization, especially in the context of the modern world, is towards full interdependency. This means that any confrontation in a separate state cannot stay within its national borders for long. For various reasons, such a confrontation will inevitably tend to spread in an incontrolled manner that sooner or later presents neighboring states with a complex of problems that lead to the destabilization of the situation in the region. From this point of view a crisis is aggravated as a rule by the overt or covert internationalization of the conflict, because there are always external forces pursuing different aims and trying to secure their own interests in the area of crisis. So it is erroneous to analyze an internal conflict in any isolated state, and the interrelation between that state and its neighbors, as unrelated phenomena. The military and political crisis in Afghanistan and the instability in Tajikistan can only have a negative impact on both the regional stability of Central Asia as a whole and the national security of Uzbekistan in particular. I think there is no need to theorize at length or to make references to the historical background of other regional conflicts to confirm this truth concerning our situation. It is my deep belief that the aggravation of the situation in Afghanistan in September and October 1996 demonstrates the realities and acuteness of this many-sided problem, the echo of which was felt by everyone in the country, and made us pensive about the price of peace in the Republic and the well-being of the nation. In this context it would be logical to go on with the thought that, unless the regional conflicts are settled, no state in Central Asia will be safe and able to advance confidently into the future. The list of threats, both actual and potential, would appear to be rather long. Firstly, special attention should be paid to the development of such situations as the deliberate or involuntary expansion of armed or other undermining activity on the territory of neighboring states, since the Afghan and, to some extent, Tajik conflicts have already reached the stage where they are actually unmanageable. In such situations the particularities of the location of the principal cultures in the area, the proportions of which vary in all Central Asian states and reveal a historically shaped interrelationship in various spheres and on various levels (including multiple relative links), should be taken into consideration. Due to the level of ethnic heterogeneity of each of the Central Asian states any aggravation of the crises can only undermine civic harmony and stability in neighboring countries. The attempts of certain subversive groups to fan the flames of conflict and carry the crises across to neighboring countries by appealing to the national feelings of ethnic population groups living in those countries can only cause alarm. Modem history clearly shows that forces trying to play the 'national card' for their own political and other purposes primarily draw on the high sensitivity of people's emotions in order to direct them further along the path of militant aggression, which excludes political wisdom and common sense. Secondly, during recent years events have taken a dramatic course because in the Afghan crisis, alongside the existing ethnic factions, a religious aspect has been introduced. A strong politicization of Islam has taken place that has shaped extremely radical forms; open pretensions to power and the wish to achieve it through using arms and calling up all co-religionists in support. This process, which has nothing to do with the humane ideals and foundations of our religion, negatively influences the social and political situation over a vast area from Gorny Badakhshan to the Caspian Sea. Unfortunately, it should be remembered that, in some countries of the region, extremist elements who will not hesitate to impose the Afghan scenario on their people in total disregard of the consequences of the events in Afghanistan still exist, We and our descendants will have to evaluate this tragedy in the future. Thirdly, centrifugal waves from the Afghan conflict, the roots of which also lie in the ethnic and confessional ambitions of various Afghan groups to seize power, continue to have a negative effect on the entire region and to take tangible shape, This is clearly illustrated by the armed provocation on the Tajik - Afghan border which, together with other manifestations of subversive activity from the territory of the Islamic State of Afghanistan, is seriously destabilizing the situation in Tajikistan and consequently in this region. In such conditions heterogeneous 'fighters for faith', to justify their actions and intentions, use religious slogans, trying to impose spiritual ideals and values alien to our nations, to sow seeds of discord and medieval obscurancy, and to deprive us of an adequate place in the architecture of human civilization. Finally, one more potential threat deserves particular attention. The ongoing conflicts give some people the opportunity to exaggerate the problems of 'separated nations'. Often a deliberate selection of arguments is presented in favor of, for instance, the unification of Tajiks or Uzbeks and Pushtun tribes on both sides of the border with Afghanistan. The consequences of any attempt to change existing borders using the principles of ethnic division are unthinkable. A change of borders in our region might result in a horrifying effect for the entire world community, and the conflict of a similar kind in Bosnia and Herzegovina would seem a prelude to this holocaust. Extended regional conflicts generate a wide range of problems for neighboring countries (naturally, Uzbekistan is no exception) and not only of an immediate nature. In the future, they may produce the effect of a 'delayed-action mine' in politics, ideology and interethnic relationships. The consequences of regional conflicts have a more definite, tangible form and influence both national economies and the economic links between the states. These are not abstract concepts, they affect the interests of every citizen and community member and are easily calculated, For example: 1.The war in Afghanistan, having almost destroyed the country's insufficiently developed economy, is today the major constraint for new transport links which would allow the Central Asian states to have access to 'warm sea' ports and would help to integrate them into the existing system of world trade, This, consequently, holds back the development of national economies, because it is a well-known fact that the shortest and most stable transport links are necessary for an effective commodities exchange. 2.There is the problem of refugees, who in the case of armed confrontations are ready 'to flood' the territory of neighboring countries, Frequently, in inflows of this sort, it is not just those seeking food and shelter who cross the border; there are also those who confuse people's souls, For the host country, this problem has an economic aspect along with the natural humanitarian one because the need arises to find additional funds from the budget to locate refugees, to provide accommodation and to solve a great deal of their urgent problems, 3.As far as the negative factors associated with the extended conflicts in Afghanistan and Tajikistan and of their great danger to neighboring states are concerned, I cannot