Università degli Studi di Padova Dipartimento di Territorio e Sistemi Agro-Forestali (TESAF) Bangor University, United Kingdom College of Natural Sciences, School of Environment, Natural Resources and Geography ___________________________________________________________________ SCUOLA DI DOTTORATO DI RICERCA IN: Territorio, Ambiente, Risorse e Salute CICLO XXVII MEASURING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF CONSERVATION GOVERNANCE, POLICIES AND PROGRAMMES IN FOREST PROTECTED AREAS Direttore della Scuola: Ch.mo Prof. Mario Aristide Lenzi Supervisore: Prof. dr. Laura Secco Co-supervisore: Prof. dr. Andrew S. Pullin Dottorando: Biljana Macura Summary Failures of governance underlay many problems in natural resource management. In- situ conservation strategies, such as forest protected areas (FPAs), are currently one of the main strategies for forest and terrestrial biodiversity conservation. Nevertheless, there is no clear evidence in the current literature on the exact role of governance arrangements and cause-effect relationships between decision-making style and conservation outcomes of forest protected areas. Governance theory deals with the inquiry of how decisions are made and how decisions are implemented given the existing institutional frame and interactions of different actors. This work aims to clarify the role of governance, its diversity, quality and change, in the functioning of forest protected areas to deliver the desired social and ecological outcomes. Accordingly, the dissertation has three specific objectives: 1) to characterise and collate an evidence base on the role of governance in forest protected areas and their conservation outcomes globally; 2) to analyse potential for a shift from hierarchical to collaborative governance in a case example of tiger conservation; and 3) to evaluate inclusive policies and their implementation through state-driven decentralization programmes on the ground. This work applies a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, including systematic review methodology, qualitative data analysis and quantitative impact assessment. The first part of the dissertation (Chapter 2) collates the evidence on conservation success of FPAs conditional on the type of their governance. This chapter explores protected areas globally and synthesizes the published literature up-to-today to create a global map of the evidence and knowledge base on the role of governance in the conservation effectiveness of protected areas with respect to social and ecological outcomes. The current evidence base is small and fragmented with the low explanatory power and methodological weaknesses. Conservation research often does not account for local governance elements while making judgement on conservation success. In case where it does, it measures conservation success through mainly one type of conservation outcome (ecological). However, social-related issues such as actors’ attitudes and behaviour (intermediate outcomes on the change pathway) might contribute to more complete picture of the protected area success. The second part of the dissertation (Chapters 3 and 4) uses tiger conservation in central India as a case example to analyse governance change and the gaps between socially-inclusive and collaborative policies and actual practices on the ground. Chapter 3 investigates, from an institutional perspective, enabling and disabling factors for a shift towards “landscape-level conservation” that implies collaboration between PA managers and different actors in central India. The results show how a mix of institutional and cognitive factors can constrain a shift to the collaboration. Organisational structure of the public management agency and its “fortress conservation” mentality is perceived to be a major constrain for a change. Chapter 4 examines the case of two participatory projects around Pench Tiger Reserve in Madhya Pradesh and evaluates the effects of project participation through local community’s attitudes towards biodiversity and trust and satisfaction with reserve authorities. The existing participatory approach seems to have only a small effect, mainly to people’s conservation knowledge but not to their biodiversity attitudes and institutional trust. The main findings of this dissertation calls attention to the understanding of the decision-making process, informal and formal institutions and interactions between conservation actors for more complete understanding and measurement of conservation success. Riassunto Fallimenti di politiche e di governance sottendono molti problemi nella gestione delle risorse naturali. Interventi di conservazione in situ, come la creazione e gestione di aree forestali protette (AFP), sono attualmente una delle principali strategie per la conservazione delle risorse forestali e della biodiversità terrestre. Tuttavia, in letteratura, non vi è alcuna chiara evidenza sul ruolo dei meccanismi di governance e sulle relazioni di causa-effetto tra processo decisionale ed esiti della conservazione di AFP. La teoria della governance si occupa di come vengono prese e attuate le decisioni in un determinato contesto istituzionale e in presenza di determinate interazioni tra i diversi attori. Questo lavoro si propone di chiarire il ruolo dei meccanismi di governance, della loro diversità, qualità e degli eventuali cambiamenti, sul funzionamento di aree forestali protette affinché queste ultime possano offrire i risultati sociali ed ecologici desiderati. A questo scopo, la tesi ha tre obiettivi specifici: 1) caratterizzare, raccogliere e sistematizzare le conoscenze esistenti a livello globale sul ruolo della governance in AFP e sui loro risultati in termini di conservazione; 2) analizzare le potenzialità di un cambiamento da un approccio gerarchico ad una governance collaborativa in un caso esemplificativo di area protetta finalizzata alla conservazione della tigre; e 3) valutare le politiche di inclusione e la loro attuazione attraverso i programmi di partecipazione pubblica e decentramento dello Stato, sulla base degli interventi operativi realizzati a scala locale. In questo lavoro si applica una combinazione di metodi qualitativi e quantitativi, tra cui una metodologia di revisione sistematica della letteratura, un’analisi qualitativa di dati raccolti tramite interviste semi-strutturate ed una valutazione di impatto basata su medoti quantitativi. La prima parte della tesi (Capitolo 2) raccoglie le evidenze dei casi di successo ed efficacia di interventi di conservazione di AFP in ragione del tipo di governance cui le aree protette stesse sono soggette. Questo capitolo esplora aree protette a livello globale e sintetizza la letteratura ad oggi pubblicata al fine di creare una mappa globale delle evidenze ed una base di conoscenze sul ruolo della governance nell'efficacia della conservazione di AFP in relazione ai risultati sociali ed ecologici attesi. Le evidenze attualmente disponibili sono limitate e frammentate, hanno un potere esplicativo contenuto e debolezze metodologiche. La ricerca in questo campo spesso non tiene conto degli elementi di governance locale nel formulare un giudizio sul successo delle strategie e degli interventi di conservazione. Nel caso in cui lo fa, spesso misura il successo della conservazione soltanto (o soprattutto) attraverso i risultati dal punto di vista ecologico. Tuttavia, risultati sociali quali nuovi atteggiamenti e comportamenti (outcome intermedi lungo un percorso di cambiamento indotto da interventi di conservazione) potrebbero contribuire a fornire un quadro più completo dell’efficacia e del successo dell'area protetta. La seconda parte della tesi (Capitoli 3 e 4) usa il caso della conservazione della tigre in India centrale come esempio per analizzare il cambiamento nei meccanismi di governance e il divario tra le politiche e pratiche reali sul campo dal punto di vista dell’inclusione sociale e della collaborazione. Il Capitolo 3 indaga, da un punto di vista istituzionale, i fattori favorevoli e quelli che invece potrebbero ostacolare uno spostamento delle politiche e degli interventi verso una conservazione “a livello di paesaggio" (a scala meso, e non di singola unità boschiva, per esempio), che implica una maggior collaborazione tra i gestori dell’area protetta e i diversi attori, con un focus sempre in India centrale. I risultati mostrano   4 come un mix di fattori istituzionali e cognitivi siano in grado di limitare il passaggio alla collaborazione e di conseguenza di limitare la possibilità di proteggere e conservare in maniera efficace zone più ampie ed integrate di territorio. La struttura organizzativa interna dell’ente pubblico che si occupa della gestione dell’area protetta e la sua mentalità da "fortezza della conservazione" è percepita dagli operatori locali come un vincolo importante per un cambiamento. Il Capitolo 4 esamina il caso di due progetti partecipativi attuati nelle aree limitrofe alla Pench Tiger Reserve, nello Stato del Madhya Pradesh in India, e valuta gli effetti dei progetti/programmi di partecipazione e gestione congiunta dell’area attraverso l’analisi delle attitudini/atteggiamenti della comunità locale nei confronti della biodiversità, nonché la fiducia ed il grado di soddisfazione rispetto alle autorità pubbliche che operano nella riserva. Gli approcci e gli strumenti finora attuati sembrano avere un effetto molto limitato, solo in relazione alla conoscenza dei concetti di conservazione della biodiversità da parte delle persone residenti nell’area. Non si sono riscontrati effetti sulle attitudini, o sugli atteggiamenti/comportamenti dei membri della comunità locale nei confronti della biodiversità né sul loro grado di fiducia verso le istituzioni pubbliche. I principali risultati di questa tesi richiamano l'attenzione sull'importanza della comprensione del processo decisionale, le istituzioni informali e formali ed una più profonda comprensione delle interazioni tra attori per essere in grado di misurare il successo/efficacia degli interventi di conservazione di aree forestali protette ai fini della protezione della biodiversità.   5 6 CONTENTS Annex list  ................................................................................................................................  11   Acknowledgements  ...............................................................................................................  12   Chapter 1  ................................................................................................................................  19   Introduction  ...........................................................................................................................  19   Background  and  problem  statement  ....................................................................................  19   Objectives  and  research  questions  ........................................................................................  21   Theoretical  framework  .............................................................................................................  22   Governance theories  ....................................................................................................................................  23   Conservation  and  governance  evaluation  ........................................................................................  28   Shifting discourses and governance modes in conservation  ..........................................................  31   Dissertation  structure  ................................................................................................................  34   References  ......................................................................................................................................  37   Chapter 2  ................................................................................................................................  45   The role of Governance in forest protected areas: mapping the evidence  ...............  45   References  ......................................................................................................................................  46   Chapter 2.1  ............................................................................................................................  49   Systematic Review Protocol  ...............................................................................................  49   Background  ...................................................................................................................................  49   Objectives  of  the  Review  ...........................................................................................................  53   Methods  ..........................................................................................................................................  57   Search strategy  ..............................................................................................................................................  57   Study inclusion criteria  ...............................................................................................................................  62   Potential reasons for heterogeneity and effect modifiers  ................................................................  64   Study quality assessment  ...........................................................................................................................  65   Data extraction  ..............................................................................................................................................  66   Data synthesis  ................................................................................................................................................  68   References  ......................................................................................................................................  69   Chapter 2.2.  ...........................................................................................................................  75   What evidence exists on the role of governance in the conservation effectiveness of forest protected areas? Knowledge base and evidence gaps  .......................................  75   Background  ...................................................................................................................................  75   Objective  of  the  map  ...................................................................................................................  77   Evolving objective of this research  ........................................................................................................  77   Primary and secondary objectives  ..........................................................................................................  78   Methods  ..........................................................................................................................................  79   Searches  ...........................................................................................................................................................  80   Estimating the comprehensiveness of the search  ..............................................................................  83     7 Article retrieval  .............................................................................................................................................  84   Article screening and study inclusion criteria  .....................................................................................  84   Amendments and clarifications to the inclusion criteria published in the protocol  ...............  85   Study coding  ...................................................................................................................................................  87   Critical Appraisal  ..........................................................................................................................................  87   Results  .............................................................................................................................................  89   Evidence identification, retrieval and screening  ................................................................................  89   Systematic Map database  ...........................................................................................................................  91   Database description and findings  ..........................................................................................................  92   Mapping the quality of the studies relevant to the question  ........................................................  115   Discussion  ....................................................................................................................................  117   Mapping limitations  ..................................................................................................................................  117   Limitations in the evidence base on the governance role in conservation effectiveness  ...  119   Conclusions  ..................................................................................................................................  121   Implications for practice and policy  ....................................................................................................  121   Implications for synthesis  .......................................................................................................................  122   Implications for research  .........................................................................................................................  123   References  ....................................................................................................................................  125   Chapter 3  ..............................................................................................................................  131   Potential for social connectivity in landscape-scale tiger conservation of central India  ......................................................................................................................................  131   Introduction  ................................................................................................................................  131   Methodology  ................................................................................................................................  135   Case  Study  ....................................................................................................................................  137   Results  ...........................................................................................................................................  143   Tiger  reserves  in  Central  India  ..........................................................................................................  144   The  Forest  Department:  legacies  and  working  culture  ...........................................................  147   Interaction  between  the  Forest  DepaRTment  and  other  actors  in  the  landscape  ......  151   Discussion  ....................................................................................................................................  157   Changing  FD  values  and  behaviour  .................................................................................................  157   Improving  information  flow  and  trust  ...........................................................................................  158   Working  with  local  people  in  the  corridors  .................................................................................  159   Concluding  thoughts  .................................................................................................................  160   References  ....................................................................................................................................  161   Chapter 4  ..............................................................................................................................  167   Effects of two state-driven participatory projects on conservation knowledge, attitudes and trust: a case of a Central Indian Tiger Reserve  ..................................  167   Introduction  ................................................................................................................................  167   Case  Study  ....................................................................................................................................  172   Study site  ......................................................................................................................................................  172   Joint Forest Management around PTR  ...............................................................................................  173   Ecodevelopment around PTR  ................................................................................................................  174   The  JFM  and  the  ED:  differences  ...........................................................................................  174     8 Methods  ........................................................................................................................................  175   Data collection  ............................................................................................................................................  175   Empirical strategy  ......................................................................................................................................  176   Defining treatments, counterfactual and reasons to participate  ....................................  179   Results  ...........................................................................................................................................  184   Describing the unmatched sample  .......................................................................................................  184   Average effect of participation compared to no participation (H1)  ..........................................  190   Average effects of participation in ED compared to JFM (H2)  .................................................  191   Discussion  ....................................................................................................................................  192   Do local people’s conservation knowledge and biodiversity attitudes differ between participants and non-participants?  .......................................................................................................  192   Does the type of participatory intervention - JFM or ED – matters in terms of people’s conservation knowledge, biodiversity attitudes, trust and satisfaction with the management authorities?  ...................................................................................................................................................  194   Study limitations  ........................................................................................................................................  196   Conclusions  ..................................................................................................................................  196   References  ....................................................................................................................................  198   CHAPTER 5  ........................................................................................................................  207   ADVANCING ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION OF CONSERVATION POLICY AND PRACTICE  ...............................................................................................................  207   Directions  for  future  research  ..............................................................................................  211   References  ....................................................................................................................................  213   Annexes  .................................................................................................................................  219     9 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1 Connection between the chapters and research logic…………………..36 Figure 2.2.1 Conceptual framework with different governance arrangements and four types of mapped effects………………………………………………………….77 Figure 2.2.2 Flow diagram of mapping stages from searching, identification of relevant literature and coding………………………………………………………..90 Figure 2.2.3 Numbers of articles included in the map by publication year……….92 Figure 2.2.4 Number of study locations per country and per continent/region…. 93 Figure 2.2.5 Governance modes in included studies………………………………..97 Figure 2.2.6 Nature of study comparators in included studies…………………….97 Figure 2.2.7 Study design in the included studies…………………………………115 Figure 2.2.8 Appropriateness of comparator in included quantitative and mixed- methods observational and quasi-experimental studies…………………………..116 Figure 3.1 Central Indian & Eastern Ghat Landscape complex…………………134 Figure 4.1 Theory of change showing inputs, activities and the effects of participatory conservation interventions through hypothesised and theoretical cause-effect relations between participation, behaviour and conservation……...168 Figure 4.2 Study location: PTR, Madhya Pradesh with sampled villages……….172 LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1 Summary of research questions, methods and outputs………………...35 Table 2.1.1 Elements of the systematic review question…………………………...56 Table 2.2.1 Elements of critical appraisal and their coding…………………….....88 Table 2.2.2 Number and kind of reported outcomes per study…………………...94 Table 2.2.3 Overview of the mapped governance modes, outcomes and comparators ……………………………………………………………………..98 Table 3.1 Overview of interviewed actors, their role in the landscape and administrative level of activities…………………………………………………....136 Table 3.2 Evolution of forestry and conservation policies………………………..139 Table 3.3 Actors in the landscape around tiger reserves in Maharashtra………144 Table 4.1 Measured effects and related questions for participant (both ED and JFM) and non-participant households……………………………………………..177 Table 4.2 Models for specification of the PSs for testing H1 (logit) and H2 (probit)……………………………………………………………………………….182 Table 4.3 Descriptive statistics for unmatched samples…………………………..185 Table 4.4 Effect of participation (in either ED or JFM) versus no participation (H1) for four measured effects (ATT)……………………………………………...190 Table 4.5 Effect of household participation in ED versus participation in JFM (H2) for measured effects (ATT)…………………………………………………………191   10