P o l U n Fi n i S h e d UnFiniShed BUSineSS lA C K / A l K An AMeRiCAn StRAtegy FoR iRAq Moving FoRWARd Ad i R i / C A iraq still hangs in the balance. The dramatic improvements in Iraqi security RP B US i n e SS e n between 2007 and 2009 have produced important, but incomplete t e changes in the nation’s politics. These changes make it possible to imagine R / Iraq slowly muddling upward, building gradually toward a better future. K A g But we must be constantly on guard against the considerable potential for A n Iraq to slip into all-out civil war. There are dozens of scenarios—from military / K coups, to official misconduct, to the assassination of one or two key leaders— A n that could spark such violence. e In Unfinished Business, a team of five experts from across the political spectrum analyze the situation in Iraq. They present a well-reasoned and An AMeRiCAn StRAtegy FoR iRAq Moving FoRWARd feasible path for U.S. policy toward Baghdad—one that would give priority to preventing Iraq from slipping into civil war or becoming an aggressive state but that would also lead to a clear American goal: a new, strong, and prosperous ally in the Middle East. Ultimately, the United States must condition the continuation of the U.S.-Iraqi relationship on the willingness of Iraqi political leaders to guide their country in the direction of greater stability, inclusivity, and effective governance. Kenneth M. PollacK is director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. He is the author of A Path out of the Desert: A Grand Strategy for America in the Middle East (Random House). Raad alKadiRi is partner and head of Global ni JR.i sSkc aot tPtFC c EanRerPgey,n at WeRas hisi ntghteo Kn,e sDto.nC F.-abmasileyd F estlrloawte gaitc thaed vWisaosrhyi nfigrtmon. o rellandi WIns.t iKtuateg foar nNe iasr aE arests iPdoelnict ys cahnodl adri raetc ttohre o Af imtse Prircoajnec tE Fnitkerrap.r FisRe IendstietuRtei canKd uters/stefan author of Finding the Target: The Transformation of American Military Policy © re (Encounter). Sean Kane is the senior program officer for Iraq at the graPh United States Institute of Peace and previously served with the UN Assistance oto h Mission for Iraq. over P C n / g BWwRwaOswh.OibnrKgotoIoNkniG,n DgSs ..ICeNd.uSTITUTION PRESS gn by sese-Paul desi Kenneth MFr.e Pdoelrliacckk ,W R. aKaadg aAnlk, aadnidri ,S Je.a Sn cKoattn eCarpenter, over desi C BP_PollackSoftCover_final.indd 1 1/11/11 8:43 PM Unfinished Business Pollack.indb 1 1/6/11 5:51 PM Pollack.indb 2 1/6/11 5:51 PM Unfinished Business An American Strategy for Iraq Moving Forward Kenneth M. Pollack Raad Alkadiri J. Scott Carpenter Frederick W. Kagan Sean Kane With contributions from Joost Hiltermann brookings institution press Washington, D.C. Pollack.indb 3 1/6/11 5:51 PM Copyright © 2011 the brookings institution 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 www.brookings.edu All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the Brookings Institution Press. a saban center at the brookings institution book Originally released as Analysis Paper 22, December 2010 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication data is available ISBN: 978-0-8157-2165-9 (pbk. : alk. paper) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Printed on acid-free paper Typeset in Sabon Composition by Cynthia Stock Silver Spring, Maryland Printed by R. R. Donnelley Harrisonburg, Virginia Pollack.indb 4 1/6/11 5:51 PM Contents Preface vii Introduction 1 1 Goals and Influence 11 2 Politics 35 3 Security 61 4 Governance and Economics 87 5 Regional Issues 105 Notes 115 About the Authors 121 Index 125 v Pollack.indb 5 1/6/11 5:51 PM Pollack.indb 6 1/6/11 5:51 PM Preface U nfinished Business: An American Strategy for Iraq Moving Forward is the product of a remarkable transformation. Not the transformation of Iraq, but the transformation of the views of analysts in the United States who work on Iraq. During the spring of 2010, in the midst of Iraq’s post-election wrangling, the six members of this group met on several occasions at small dinners and other meetings related to Iraq. Over the course of those gatherings we re- alized that although many of us had once differed vociferously in our views regarding American policy toward Iraq, our disagreements had abated rather dramatically. Indeed, there seemed to be a surpris- ing convergence in our thinking despite our widely differing political backgrounds. In response, during the late summer and early fall of 2010, Kenneth Pollack of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution convened the group formally as a working group on Iraq. Unfortunately, Frederick Kagan of the American Enterprise Institute was asked to come to Afghanistan by General Stanley McChrystal to help the U.S. military with that mission. As a result, Fred had to follow our activities remotely, via emails, written notes from the ses- sions, and the odd face-to-face meeting whenever he was in town. The rest of us spent long hours together hashing out every significant vii Pollack.indb 7 1/6/11 5:51 PM viii preface issue related to Iraq and U.S. policy toward Iraq. In the end, there were still some differences among us, but the degree of consensus— and consensus on a number of rather bold statements about what the United States will need to do to secure its interests in Iraq in the future—was remarkable. By the end of our conversations, members of our group who had once been ready to do great violence to one another over their differences found themselves in violent agreement over what needed to be done. The product of that harmonic conver- gence is this report. Joost Hiltermann of the International Crisis Group attended most of our meetings, participated fully in the conversations, and contrib- uted a number of important ideas to the final product. As for the rest of us, the views expressed in these pages are ours alone and do not constitute the positions of the American Enterprise Institute, the Brookings Institution, PFC Energy, the United States Institute of Peace, or the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. We were extremely fortunate to have the advice of a remarkable collection of people. Ambassador Ryan Crocker, Lt. General James Dubik (ret.), Ambassador Charles Reis, and Emma Sky were all ex- ceptionally generous with their time, experience, and expertise. They provided comments on an early draft of this report and their insights made this a far better product than it otherwise would have been. We are deeply grateful to them for their wisdom. In addition, Bob Cassily of the U.S. State Department shared the fruits of his experience with the Provincial Reconstruction Teams in Iraq with us, which proved invaluable to key sections of this report. Any and all remaining mis- takes or stupid ideas are ours alone. Kenneth M. Pollack Raad Alkadiri J. Scott Carpenter Frederick W. Kagan Sean Kane Pollack.indb 8 1/6/11 5:51 PM Unfinished Business Pollack.indb 9 1/6/11 5:51 PM