The Constantinos Karamanlis Institute for Democracy Series on European and International Affairs Series Editors: Constantine Arvanitopoulos Nikolaos Tzifakis The Constantinos Karamanlis Institute for Democracy Vas. Sofias Ave. 10 10674 Athens Greece [email protected] The Constantinos Karamanlis Institute for Democracy Series on European and International Affairs consists of edited multi-author works dealing with contemporary political and socio-economic issues of European and international concern. It attempts to offer comprehensive and up-to-date accounts of the relevant debates currently taking place within the discipline of International Relations. The series is addressed to a wide audience: undergraduate and postgraduate students, scholars, think tanks and decision-makers. Constantine Arvanitopoulos Editor Turkey’s Accession to the European Union An Unusual Candidacy Professor Constantine Arvanitopoulos Constantinos Karamanlis Institute for Democracy Vas. Sofias Ave. 10 10674 Athens Greece [email protected] This is a joint publication of the Centre for European Studies and the Constantinos Karamanlis Institute for Democracy. This publication receives funding from the Community and the European Parliament. The Centre for European Studies, the Constantinos Karamanlis Institute for Democracy and the European Parliament assume no responsibility for facts or opinions expressed in this publication. Sole responsibility lies on the authors of this publication. ISSN 1866-1270 ISBN 978-3-540-88196-4 e-ISBN 978-3-540-88197-1 The Constantinos Karamanlis Institute for Democracy Series on European and International Affairs Library of Congress Control Number: 2008939142 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilm or in any other way, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Constantinos Karamanlis Institute for Democracy. Violations are liable to prosecution under the German Copyright Law. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. Springer is a part of Springer Science+Business Media springer.com Published by Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2009 © Constantinos Karamanlis Institute for Democracy, Athens 2009 Cover-design: WMX Design GmbH, Heidelberg 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Printed on acid-free paper Acknowledgements For the publication of this edited multi-authored volume there are several people whose assistance has been needed and is very much appreciated. First of all, I express my gratitude to the Centre for European Studies for our excellent track record of cooperation in making this joint venture come to fruition. In addition, many thanks to our friends at Springer for believing in this new book series and showing particular interest in this first volume. I also gratefully acknowledge the kind assistance of the Fundación para el Análisis y los Estudios Sociales (FAES), the Hanns Seidel Foundation (HSS) and the Fondation pour l’innovation Politique for suggesting the participation of certain authors whose valuable insights enrich the book. Also, special thanks to Marvin DuBois and his team for their invaluable copy-editing work. At the Constantinos Karamanlis Institute for Democracy, I thank both the pres- ent and past staff members of the Department of International Co-operation – namely, Pantelis Sklias, Nikolaos Tzifakis, Christianna Papageorgaki and Evangelia Sofroni – for their constant support and ready involvement. Finally, I am profoundly indebted to the scholars whose work is included in this volume for their participation and contribution. September 2008 Constantine Arvanitopoulos v The Editor Constantine Arvanitopoulos is Professor of International Relations and Chair of the Department of International and European Studies at Panteion University, Athens. He is a graduate of Panteion University and holds an MA and a PhD in International Relations from the School of International Service, American University, Washington, DC. He has been a Lecturer of International Relations and Comparative Politics in the School of International Service at the American University (1987–1989), post-doctoral Fellow at the Center for European Studies at Harvard University (1990–1992) and Assistant Professor of Government and European Politics in the Department of Public and International Affairs at George Mason University (1992–1995). His research interests are in International Relations theory, specifically the study of regime change, European politics and US foreign policy analysis. He has taught courses on theory and methodology of International Relations, European politics and comparative politics. He has published articles on the EU, the non-aligned movement, Greek–Turkish relations, the study of leadership and authoritarian regimes. He has written books on the transitions from authoritarianism to democracy, on transatlantic relations, on US foreign policy and a textbook on international relations. He has been the Director General of the Constantinos Karamanlis Institute for Democracy since June 2000. His latest appointments include the following: Representative of the New Democracy Party (ND) to the National Council of Foreign Policy, Member of the Academic Council of the Centre for European Studies (CES) and Member of the Board of Directors of UNESCO–Greece. Constantine Arvanitopoulos was also the spokesperson for the New Democracy Party during the last national elections (September 2007). vii Contents Introduction Constantine Arvanitopoulos and Nikolaos Tzifakis ........................................ 1 Enlargement Governance and the Union’s Integration Capacity ............. 9 Constantine Arvanitopoulos and Nikolaos Tzifakis The EU–Turkey Negotiations: Between the Siege of Vienna and the Reconquest of Constantinople ......................................................... 21 Julio Crespo MacLennan Turkey and Europe: The Importance of Predictability .............................. 31 Diba Nigar Göksel Tertium Datur: Turkey’s Application for EU Membership ....................... 45 Thomas Silberhorn Europeanisation and Its Discontents: Turkey, 1959–2007 ......................... 53 Hakan Yılmaz The European Union, Islam and Turkey: Delineating Europe’s Soft Power ....................................................................................... 65 Aristotle Tziampiris Turkey and European Security ..................................................................... 75 Thanos Dokos Is Turkey Still an Asset for European Security? ......................................... 87 Can Buharalı The Emergence of New Security Threats to the EU and Their Implications for EU–Turkey Relations: The Case of Illegal Migration ....................................................................... 95 Özgür Ünal Eris¸ ix x Contents How Can the European Union Transform the Greek–Turkish Conflict? ........................................................................ 107 Panayotis J. Tsakonas Whither Turkey? Greece’s Aegean Options ................................................ 121 Kostas Ifantis Greek–Turkish Peace Processes as Autopoietic Systems ............................ 133 Eugenia Vathakou Turkey and the Identity of Europe: Contemporary Identity Politics on the European Frontier ................................................................ 147 Dimitris Keridis The Debate’s Impact on Europe ................................................................... 159 Ranier Fsadni Imagining the EU in the Turkish Mirror ..................................................... 171 Ali Ihsan Aydin What Makes Turkish Islam Unique? ........................................................... 183 Mustafa Akyol The Political Economy of Turkey’s Accession to the EU: A Comparative Analysis ................................................................................ 195 Pantelis Sklias Index .............................................................................................................. 211 List of Tables The European Union, Islam and Turkey: Delineating Europe’s Soft Power Table 1 Population of Muslims in 2006 (in millions) .................................... 69 Table 2 Projected decline in population ......................................................... 70 The Political Economy of Turkey’s Accession to the EU: A Comparative Analysis Table 1 Comparison between EU-15, CEEC-10 and Turkey, 2000 ............................................................................... 199 Table 2 Total expenditure on education and adult population with upper secondary education ...................................... 201 Table 3 Turkish population in selected EU countries 2000 ............................................................................. 202 The Political Economy of Turkey’s Accession to the EU: A Comparative Analysis Table 1 Total population: Various EU member states and candidates, and total EU25, EU27 and EU28; UN estimates 2003–2050 .................................................................. 205 Table 2 Turkey: Major economic indicators .................................................. 206 Table 3 Main economic trends (as of 7 October 2005) .................................. 208 xi