Truth to Power Truth to Power A History of the U.S. National Intelligence Council z Edited by ROBERT HUTCHINGS GREGORY F. TREVERTON 1 1 Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide. Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press in the UK and certain other countries. Published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press 198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016, United States of America. © Oxford University Press 2019 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted by law, by license, or under terms agreed with the appropriate reproduction rights organization. Inquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the address above. You must not circulate this work in any other form and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer. Library of Congress Cataloging- in- Publication Data Names: Hutchings, Robert L., 1946– editor. | Treverton, Gregory F., editor. Title: Truth to power : a history of the U.S. National Intelligence Council / edited by Robert Hutchings and Gregory F. Treverton. Other titles: Truth to power (Oxford University Press) Description: New York, NY, United States of America : Oxford University Press, [2019] | Includes bibliographical references. Identifiers: LCCN 2018035753 | ISBN 9780190940010 (pbk : alk. paper) | 9780190940003 (hc : alk. paper) | 9780190940027 (UPDF) | 9780190940034 (EPUB) | 9780190053086 (OSO) Subjects: LCSH: National Intelligence Council (U.S.) | Intelligence service—United States—History—20th century. | Intelligence service—United States—History—21st century. Classification: LCC JK468.I6 T77 2019 | DDC 327.1273—dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2018035753 1 3 5 7 9 8 6 4 2 Paperback printed by WebCom, Inc., Canada Hardback printed by Bridgeport National Bindery, Inc., United States of America To our colleagues in American intelligence, consummate non- partisan professionals who pay a high price, not just in money but in lifestyle, to serve their country by doing their best to speak truth to power. Contents Acknowledgments ix List of Contributors xi Introduction—R obert Hutchings 1 1. Estimative Intelligence after the Cold War: 1993– 1994— Joseph S. Nye Jr. 23 2. Controlling Controversy: 1995– 1997—R ichard N. Cooper 42 3. A New Global Agenda: 1997– 2001—J ohn Gannon 57 4. The Trauma of 9/ 11: 2001– 2002—J ohn L. Helgerson 85 5. America at War: 2003– 2005—R obert Hutchings 105 6. New Missions, New Challenges: 2005– 2008—T homas Fingar 133 7. Intelligence Integration and Reform: 2009– 2014— Christopher Kojm 157 8. From Afghanistan to Trump: 2014– 2017—G regory Treverton 180 Conclusion: Looking to the Next Chapter— Gregory Treverton 198 Appendix 1: Extracts from the National Security Act of 1947 209 Appendix 2: Excerpts from the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004 213 List of Abbreviations 217 Bibliography 219 Index 227 Acknowledgments This book grew out of an offhand suggestion. In November 2016, Greg Treverton, then chairman of the National Intelligence Council, convened a workshop that brought together past chairs and vice- chairs with the aim of providing collective recommendations to the incoming administration. On his way to the workshop from Austin, Robert Hutchings happened to be on the same flight with his University of Texas colleague Alan Kuperman, who offered the suggestion, “You ought to write a history of the NIC.” Thus was planted an idea that took shape during the workshop. All of the last eight chairs were there, and we got on so well that it inspired the idea of telling the history of the NIC via the reflections and analyses of these eight chairs. To our delight and somewhat to our surprise, all agreed to contribute chapters. It seemed that each of us had a story that needed telling, and all of us saw the value of producing the first- ever history of this remarkable but little- known organization. And Hutchings, who seems alarmingly suggestible, is grateful that Kuperman didn’t suggest instead that he kayak solo across the Atlantic. As coeditors, our first debt of gratitude is to the other six former chairs— Joseph Nye, Richard Cooper, John Gannon, John Helgerson, Thomas Fingar, and Christopher Kojm— for their willingness to be included and for their diligence in putting together the compelling chapters that make up the book. We encouraged them to tell the story of their tenures in the style that most suited them; we did not want to impose a common format or structure, ex- cept to the extent that we wanted each chapter to focus on the major foreign policy issues or challenges of the time and not simply on internal organiza- tional matters. Working with these six friends and colleagues was a truly won- derful experience. We are also grateful to the individuals and organizations that provided financial and logistical support along the way. Steve Slick, director of the Intelligence Studies Project at the University of Texas, provided seed money