TRENDS T R IN THE O SPORT SECTOR P S N the passenger and freight A evolved since 1970? How is R TRENDS g? This publication presents T date statistics on transport F ope, together with charts O IN THE major trends. S TRANSPORT SECTOR R earlier than comparable E ort provides the reader with T s on key transport trends. S transport situation in the I tern European countries, as N tic States and the CIS. I M F O E C N E R E F N O C N A 1970-2000 E P O -:HSTCSC=VVX\ZW: R U E 2 Document3A 23/07/02 15:47 Page 1 European Conference of Ministers of Transport TRENDS IN THE TRANSPORT SECTOR 1970-2000 EUROPEAN CONFERENCE OF MINISTERS OF TRANSPORT (ECMT) The European Conference of Ministers of Transport (ECMT) is an inter-governmental organisation established by a Protocol signed in Brussels on 17 October 1953. It is a forum in which Ministers responsible for transport, and more specifically the inland transport sector, can co-operate on policy. Within this forum, Ministers can openly discuss current problems and agree upon joint approaches aimed at improving the utilisation and at ensuring the rational development of European transport systems of international importance. At present, the ECMT’s role primarily consists of: − helping to create an integrated transport system throughout the enlarged Europe that is economically and technically efficient, meets the highest possible safety and environmental standards and takes full account of the social dimension; − helping also to build a bridge between the European Union and the rest of the continent at a political level. The Council of the Conference comprises the Ministers of Transport of 42 full Member countries: Albania, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, FYR Macedonia, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, the Russian Federation, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, the United Kingdom and Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. There are six Associate member countries (Australia, Canada, Japan, Korea, New Zealand and the United States) and two Observer countries (Armenia and Morocco). A Committee of Deputies, composed of senior civil servants representing Ministers, prepares proposals for consideration by the Council of Ministers. The Committee is assisted by working groups, each of which has a specific mandate.  ECMT, 2002 3 The issues currently being studied -- on which policy decisions by Ministers will be required -- include the development and implementation of a pan-European transport policy; the integration of Central and Eastern European Countries into the European transport market; specific issues relating to transport by rail, road and waterway; combined transport; transport and the environment; sustainable urban travel; the social costs of transport; trends in international transport and infrastructure needs; transport for people with mobility handicaps; road safety; traffic management; road traffic information and new communications technologies. Statistical analyses of trends in traffic and investment are published regularly by the ECMT and provide a clear indication of the situation, on a trimestrial or annual basis, in the transport sector in different European countries. As part of its research activities, the ECMT holds regular Symposia, Seminars and Round Tables on transport economics issues. Their conclusions serve as a basis for formulating proposals for policy decisions to be submitted to Ministers. The ECMT’s Documentation Service has extensive information available concerning the transport sector. This information is accessible on the ECMT Internet site. For administrative purposes the ECMT’s Secretariat is attached to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Publié en français sous le titre: EVOLUTION DES TRANSPORTS 1970-2000 Further information about the ECMT is available on Internet at the following address: http://www.oecd.org/cem/ ECMT Publications are distributed by: OECD Publications Service, 2, rue André Pascal, 75775 PARIS CEDEX 16, France. 4  ECMT, 2002 TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION.......................................................7 1. THE ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT IN 2000....9 1.1 2000 -- an exceptionally strong year, but one that marked the end of a cycle of growth..............9 1.2 The Euro Area saw the cycle come to an end.....10 1.3 Similar developments outside the Euro Area......12 1.4 An exceptionally strong year 2000 for new ECMT Member countries too.............................13 1.5 Demand-led production in Central and Eastern Europe and in the Baltic States..............14 1.6 CIS dependent on exports...................................16 1.7 Trade balance improving in new ECMT Member countries...................................18 1.8 A very positive trend in investment in new ECMT Member countries...................................19 1.9 Trends giving rise to inflation worries in some new ECMT Member countries..............20 1.10 Slight improvements in employment figures in new ECMT Member countries........................21 2. FREIGHT TRANSPORT IN 2000......................22 2.1 The countries of Western Europe........................22 Road freight transport.........................................23 Rail freight transport..........................................24 Inland waterways................................................26 Oil pipeline transport..........................................27 2.2 The countries of Central and Eastern Europe......27 Road freight transport.........................................28 Rail freight transport..........................................29 Inland waterway transport..................................31 Oil pipeline transport..........................................31 2.3 Freight transport in the countries of the CIS.......32  ECMT, 2002 5 3. PASSENGER TRANSPORT...............................35 3.1 Passenger transport in the countries of Western Europe..............................................35 Passenger transport by rail.................................35 Passenger transport by bus and coach...............36 Transport by car.................................................37 3.2 Passenger transport in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe.............................................37 Passenger transport by rail.................................38 Passenger transport by bus and coach...............38 Transport by car.................................................39 3.3 Passenger transport in the CIS countries.............40 Passenger transport by rail.................................40 Passenger transport by bus and coach...............41 4. ROAD SAFETY....................................................41 4.1. Road safety figures for the countries of Western Europe..............................................42 4.2. Road safety figures for Central and Eastern Europe.............................................44 4.3. Road safety figures for the countries of the CIS............................................................46 TABLES.....................................................................51 A. Freight Transport................................................53 B. Passenger Transport............................................59 C. Road Accidents...................................................65 6  ECMT, 2002 INTRODUCTION The main aim of this publication is to describe developments in the transport sector in Europe in 2000 and to show, primarily by means of charts, how the situation has changed since 1970. The analysis of recent trends in the European transport sector is based on data supplied by 40 ECMT Member countries1 in the form of statistics expressed in passenger and tonne-kilometres. To ensure that the overall trends are representative of as many countries as possible, the indices used in several of the charts include estimates for countries which do not yet have figures available for 2000. The report has been divided in four parts. The first one is a brief analysis of the economic environment in 2000. The second part deals with freight transport in ECMT Member countries. The third part concentrates on passenger transport and the fourth one reviews road safety. The 15 Member States of the EU together with Norway, Switzerland, Turkey as well as Iceland and the Liechtenstein are referred to hereinafter as “Western European countries” (ECMT/WEST). The recent trends in 20 “transition countries” are also reviewed. Given that the transport systems of these countries are highly distinctive and are currently undergoing radical change, 1. Albania (ALB), Austria (AUT), Azerbaijan (AZE), Belarus (BLR), Belgium (BEL), Bosnia-Herzegovina (BIH), Bulgaria (BGR), Croatia (HRV), the Czech Republic (CZE), Denmark (DNK), Estonia (EST), Finland (FIN), France (FRA), FYR Macedonia (MKD), Georgia (GEO), Germany (DEU), Greece (GRC), Hungary (HUN), Iceland (ISL), Ireland (IRL), Italy (ITA), Latvia (LVA), Liechtenstein (LIE), Lithuania (LTU), Luxembourg (LUX), Moldova (MDA), Netherlands (NLD), Norway (NOR), Poland (POL), Portugal (PRT), Romania (ROM), the Russian Federation (RUS), the Slovak Republic (SVK), Slovenia (SVN), Spain (ESP), Sweden (SWE), Switzerland (CHE), Turkey (TUR), Ukraine (UKR) and the United Kingdom (GBR).  ECMT, 2002 7 it was decided to compile specific aggregate indicators: one set for the 11 Central and Eastern European Countries and three Baltic States (ECMT/CEECs), and a second set for the 6 members of the Commonwealth of Independent States (ECMT/CIS). Data for the former Czechoslovakia (CSK) have been taken into account up to 1992 to ensure a degree of continuity in the series over a lengthy period of time; from 1993 onwards, the data provided by the Czech and Slovak Republics have been used. Furthermore, German reunification produced a break in the series due to the incorporation, from 1991 onwards, of data relating to new Länder, resulting in a similar increase in the results of the ECMT as a whole. 8  ECMT, 2002 1. THE ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT IN 2000 1.1 2000 -- an exceptionally strong year, but one that marked the end of a cycle of growth The economic cycle that led to a 10-year period of strong, sustained growth in the United States reached its peak in that country in the first quarter of 2000. However, from that point on instead of losing momentum gradually, a sharp downturn in economic activity set in during the second half of 2000. The impact of the cyclical downturn in the United States was accentuated by what proved to be a short-lived upturn in Japan and the combined effects of these developments were felt on the emerging markets of Asia and Latin America at the end of the year. Although economic growth in Europe had been strong on the whole during the year, by the last few months of 2000 the slowdown was nonetheless clearly making its presence felt. In reviewing the trends for the year 2000, one point to note is that monetary policies were tightened up in the United States and in most other industrialised countries from mid-1999 through to the first half of 2000, reflecting monetary authorities’ concerns that there was a risk of the economy overheating and of resurgent inflation. On the oil market, the price per barrel did in fact rise to USD 37 at the beginning of September 2000, its highest level in 10 years, but the effect of this increase was deflationary rather than inflationary, knocking 0.5% off GDP in industrialised countries and eroding consumer confidence in the future. Headline inflation heightened the impact of the increase in oil-based product prices. However, the rise in interest rates proved to be inappropriate, as underlying inflation remained subdued. On the stock market, a change of mood took hold among players from mid-2000 onwards. At the same time that weaker growth forecasts were announced for 2001, key firms, especially those in the new  ECMT, 2002 9 technology sector, issued profit warnings. This development, in a sector in which performance is typically very volatile, triggered a loss of confidence, pushing share prices down in the new technology sector on most markets. The reversal of the wealth-effect for shareholders in turn contributed to a fall in consumer spending in the last few months of the year and, if not to a total loss of confidence, at least to the development of a “wait and see” climate. It would be fair to say that the share prices seen in industrialised countries were boosted to unprecedented levels by what has been described as “irrational exuberance” and that a correction to the unusually optimistic climate, although not foreseen in the early part of 2000, was inevitable. Looking at the overall figures for the world economy, there are no discernible signs of the significant slowdown that set in towards the end of the year. On the contrary, the world economy shows an increase in output of 4.5% for 2000, i.e. a 1% rise on output in 1999. This made 2000 the best year in a decade, with the United States as the main driver of this growth. With GDP up by 5% in the United States in 2000, this was the country’s best performance since 1978 when GDP had shown an increase of 5.5%. The volume of world trade increased by 10% in 2000, doubling the performance recorded in 1999. This reflects the concurrent economic developments in North America, Latin America and Europe, at the top of the cycle. For this latter region, economic performance in 2000 seemed very promising with GDP up by 3.5% in Western Europe, its best performance since 1988. Strong economic growth had led to the creation of more jobs, making inroads into the unemployment figures while inflation remained low despite the increase in crude oil prices. 1.2 The Euro Area saw the cycle come to an end In the Euro Area, the cycle of growth that had started in 1997 also reached a peak in mid-2000. However, not all the major economies experienced 10  ECMT, 2002