1 of 39 Trends in Agrifood Systems Drivers, Changes, Impacts and Overall Assessment About the FAO Policy Learning Programme This programme aims at equipping high level officials from developing countries with cutting-edge knowledge and strengthening their capacity to base their decisions on sound consideration and analysis of policies and strategies both at home and in the context of strategic international developments. Related resources • See all material prepared for the FAO Policy Learning Programme • See the FAO Policy Learning Website: http://www.fao.org/tc/policy-learning/en/ © FAO January 2008 2 of 39 Trends in Agrifood Systems Drivers, Changes, Impacts and Overall Assessment By Doyle Baker, Chief, and Carlos da Silva, Agribusiness Economist Agricultural Management, Marketing and Finance Service, Rural Infrastructure and Agro-Industries Division, FAO, Rome, Italy of the FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS About EASYPol The EASYPol home page is available at: www.fao.org/easypol This presentation belongs to a set of modules which are part of the EASYPol Resource package: FAO Policy Learning Programme : Specific Policy Issues: Agrifood EASYPol is a multilingual repository of freely downloadable resources for policy making in agriculture, rural development and food security. The resources are the results of research and field work by policy experts at FAO. The site is maintained by FAO’s Policy Assistance Support Service, Policy and Programme Development Support Division, FAO. © FAO January 2008 3 of 39 Objectives Users will: know which are the main drivers of recent changes in agrifood systems worldwide understand the nature of such changes be informed about their impacts on agrifood systems organization and performance © FAO January 2008 4 of 39 Introduction The changing agrifood system Drivers Most important changes What have been the impacts? Constraints still faced Overall assessment © FAO January 2008 5 of 39 The changing agrifood system Dramatic changes Modernization of agriculture Coordination, concentration, globalization The new consumer Quality, safety, ready to eat  What are the drivers of such changes?  What are the most important changes?  What are the impacts of the changes? © FAO January 2008 6 of 39 What are the drivers? Income growth Population growth and urbanisation Trade liberalization and capital flows Changes in transport and logistics Technology Information and communication Packaging and processing © FAO January 2008 7 of 39 Income growth 7 1980 1990 6 e 2001-2005 g n a 2006-20015 h 5 c t n e c r 4 e p e g a 3 r e v a al 2 u n n a 1 a, t i p a c 0 r e p Developing East Asia Europe and Latin Middle East South Asia Sub- P -1 D Countries and Pacific Central Asia America and and N. Saharan G Caribbean Africa Africa al e -2 r -3 GDP – Annual Percentage Change © FAO January 2008 8 of 39 Income growth [cont’d] World Bank forecasts growth in income per capita in all regions of the world Region 2005 2006 2006-15 East Asia and Pacific 6.2 5.7 5.3 Europe and Central Asia 5.6 5 3.5 Latin America and Caribbean 2.3 2.3 2.4 Middle East and North Africa 2.8 2.5 2.6 South Asia 4.7 4.4 4.1 Sub-Saharan Africa 1.6 1.7 1.6 Source: The World Bank – Global Economic Prospects 2005 © FAO January 2008 9 of 39 Urbanization trends ) s 1,400 n o i 1,200 l l i m 1,000 1970 ( n o 800 1980 i t a l 600 1990 u p o 400 2000 P n 200 a b r 0 U Asia Africa Latin Near East Eastern America & Europe Caribbean © FAO January 2008 10 of 39 Urbanization trends [cont’d] Urbanisation in developing countries will accelerate over the next 30 years 4.5 4 3.5 projected 3 e l p o 2.5 e p n o 2 i l l i b 1.5 projected 1 0.5 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Rural Urban © FAO January 2008