Praise for The Trend Management Toolkit “This book is truly inspirational. An excellent toolkit for anybody who needs to think about what the future will hold and prepare their busi- ness for it before it happens. It will help all its readers both to see and understand ‘the big picture’ and how we will evolve as people, consumers, and societies in a not so distant future.” John Carstensen, Head of Profession for Climate and Environment, UK Department for International Development “I’ve read this book with the utmost interest and found it not only a professionally useful but a personally captivating read as well. It offers plenty of food for thought and – what is more important – a methodol- ogy and a set of tools that really help to organize and orient the reflection process, be it individual or collective. The Trend Management Toolkit offers a rare combination of sharp insights, sound methodology, and effective tools. It will be of great help to companies when it comes to navigating the complexity of the future.” Fernando Gutiérrez, Director and Advisor to the Chairman and CEO, BBVA “To make our world a better and greener place, we need to work together for the common good. This book presents the business case for a balanced people, planet, purpose, and profit outlook – a sustainable business model that is close to my own heart. It is essential reading for anyone wishing to map out and create positive future scenarios.”  Søren Hermansen, CEO, Samsø Energy Academy; TIME magazine Hero of the Environment 2008  “As we are living in a world where the amount of data is increasing dramatically, technology is developing at a speed never seen before, and the stress we are putting on environment and resources is coming to a tipping point – it is hard not to get confused. But with The Trend Manage- ment Toolkit we get sound help to navigate in this complex world.” Anders Eldrup, Former CEO, DONG Energy; Permanent Secretary, Danish Ministry of Finance “Anne Lise Kjaer provides a valuable toolkit for conscious capitalists look- ing to shape the 21st century. Unapologetically Nordic in her approach, she shows how a strong focus on inclusion, empowerment, and social consciousness can spur innovation and give businesses a competitive edge. This book is a must-read for current and future business leaders.” Henrik Fogh Rasmussen, Founder, Rasmussen Public Affairs “This inspiring and generous book cleverly explains how society has developed over the last 20 years and pulls all the complexity into an acces- sible tool that ensures strategic thinking. Dig in and choose what future you want to create – the business case is already argued thoroughly and the warmth and wit make it a captivating read. As both a toolbox and a summary of 20 years plus of professional learning, I can see it becoming a key source for university courses, not just within business but also design and sociology. It will also be the Christmas present for my entire network.” Esther Davidsen, Brussels lobbyist; head of Zealand Denmark EU Office “Trends on their own tell a small part of the story. Using techniques from The Trend Management Toolkit, business leaders can apply a systemic approach to understanding how to visualize the future.” R “Ray” Wang, Founder, Constellation Research Inc.; author of Disrupting Digital Business “Our success relies on adapting to the future faster than our competitors. This book’s toolkit is an invaluable resource to think deeply about that future.” Sir Ian Cheshire, Group CEO, Kingfisher plc “Just as Alvin Toffler’s Third Wave helped frame the coming decades for me in 1980, Anne Lise Kjaer has put words to the uncertainties and opportuni- ties facing our global village in coming years. The need to think in terms of circular economies and understand the critical relevance of social inclusion has never been greater. She equips the reader with both the mindset and the tools to help adapt, and even thrive, in the face of radical change.” Gary Baker, Executive Director, Climate Change & Sustainability Services, Ernst & Young AB “The future, and how to make sense of it – these are the themes of Anne Lise Kjaer’s new book. A guidebook to long-term planning in a fast- morphing world, The Trend Management Toolkit will particularly interest businesses looking for new ways of responding to changes in consumer behaviour. But its potted history of the art of prediction will fascinate all – as should Kjaer’s argument that vapid consumerism has heightened, rather than destroyed, a desire for social ties and collaboration.” Patrick Kingsley, Guardian foreign correspondent, author of How to be Danish; best young journalist at the 2014 British Press Awards “Trends – every company depends on understanding them yet few do. In Anne Lise Kjaer’s new book, The Trend Management Toolkit, she takes a brave step into the future by introducing a new way of predicting and managing trends. She has cracked it!” Martin Lindstrom, New York Times best selling author of Brandwashed and Buyology “The opportunities presented by the ongoing digital and social revolution make a culture and architecture of continuous innovation an even bigger imperative for progressive organisations. The ability to paint a holistic picture of the future is an important component of this innovation archi- tecture. The Trend Management Toolkit provides a valuable method to map the future and thereby contribute directly to the innovation process.” Neetan Chopra, Senior Vice President, IT Strategy, Emirates Group “I was captivated by the direct, personal and inspiring tone of this tool- kit and storytelling book about the future. I read it in one day – simply couldn’t put it down – because I wanted to know more. A new societal learning map and master class is born, complete with history, data and tools. This is a solid overview, with clear arguments and insights, which explains why we need a new and multidimensional set of tools to navigate in the 21st century. Lars Engman, former design director, IKEA “The future is something to be embraced not feared, but it has never been harder to discern. Political, economic, social, environmental, and technol- ogy trends bounce around the world, colliding and merging at a fearsome rate; Anne Lise’s book is a great practical guide to understanding these trends and building a strategy to respond to them.” Mike Barry, Director Plan A, Marks & Spencer “In an era of constant change, brands are finding that it is vital to be able to identify and embrace new and game-changing trends. The Trend Manage- ment Toolkit offers incisive insights and practical steps to help marketers better understand the future needs and wants of their customers.”  Muireann Bolger, Features Editor, The Marketer The Trend Management Toolkit A Practical Guide to the Future Anne Lise Kjaer © Anne Lise Kjaer 2014 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2014 978-1-137-37008-2 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No portion of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, Saffron House, 6–10 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS. Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The author has asserted her right to be identified as the author of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. First published 2014 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN Palgrave Macmillan in the UK is an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan in the US is a division of St Martin’s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN 978-1-349-47519-3 ISBN 978-1-137-37009-9 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/9781137370099 This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. Logging, pulping and manufacturing processes are expected to conform to the environmental regulations of the country of origin. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress. Typeset by Aardvark Editorial Limited, Metfield, Suffolk. This book is dedicated to my son Vicente Macia-Kjaer who challenges and inspires me by bringing a true Millennial dimension to every discourse about the future. This page intentionally left blank Contents List of figures and tables xi Foreword xiii Acknowledgments xiv 1 From facts to feelings 1 Introducing trend management as a concept 1 What this book can do for you 9 Taking time out to think and act 22 2 Sense making in a fast-forward society 28 Connecting the dots 29 Understanding the evolution of consumption 30 Future consumer landscape and culture shifts 39 The rise of meaningful consumption 47 3 Trend mapping: past, present and future 55 From weak signals to macro trend 55 Rethinking human decision making 56 21st-century sense making 64 From 2D to 4D thinking explained 70 The future is not set in stone 75 Signposts to the road ahead 80 4 Your essential trend toolkit 83 The bigger picture 84 Creating your Trend Atlas 87 Identifying key trends in the multiple dimensions 90 The Trend Index 99 Adopting a glocal perspective 110 ix