Visit our website for other free publication downloads http://www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil/ To rate this publication click here. STRATEGIC STUDIES INSTITUTE The Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) is part of the U.S. Army War College and is the strategic-level study agent for issues related to national security and military strategy with emphasis on geostrate- gic analysis. The mission of SSI is to use independent analysis to conduct strategic studies that develop policy recommendations on: • Strategy, planning, and policy for joint and combined employment of military forces; • Regional strategic appraisals; • The nature of land warfare; • Matters affecting the Army’s future; • The concepts, philosophy, and theory of strategy; and • Other issues of importance to the leadership of the Army. Studies produced by civilian and military analysts concern topics having strategic implications for the Army, the Department of De- fense, and the larger national security community. In addition to its studies, SSI publishes special reports on topics of special or immediate interest. These include edited proceedings of conferences and topically-oriented roundtables, expanded trip re- ports, and quick-reaction responses to senior Army leaders. The Institute provides a valuable analytical capability within the Army to address strategic and other issues in support of Army par- ticipation in national security policy formulation. Strategic Studies Institute Monograph THE STRATEGIC LOGIC OF THE CONTEMPORARY SECURITY DILEMMA Max G. Manwaring December 2011 The views expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Depart- ment of the Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Gov- ernment. Authors of Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) publications enjoy full academic freedom, provided they do not disclose clas- sified information, jeopardize operations security, or misrepre- sent official U.S. policy. Such academic freedom empowers them to offer new and sometimes controversial perspectives in the in- terest of furthering debate on key issues. This report is cleared for public release; distribution is unlimited. ***** This publication is subject to Title 17, United States Code, Sec- tions 101 and 105. It is in the public domain and may not be copy- righted. ***** Comments pertaining to this report are invited and should be forwarded to: Director, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 632 Wright Ave, Carlisle, PA 17013-5046. ***** All Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) publications may be downloaded free of charge from the SSI website. Hard copies of this report may also be obtained free of charge while supplies last by placing an order on the SSI website. The SSI website address is: www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil. ***** The Strategic Studies Institute publishes a monthly e-mail newsletter to update the national security community on the re- search of our analysts, recent and forthcoming publications, and upcoming conferences sponsored by the Institute. Each newslet- ter also provides a strategic commentary by one of our research analysts. If you are interested in receiving this newsletter, please subscribe on the SSI website at www.StrategicStudiesInstitute. army.mil/newsletter/. ISBN 1-58487-514-3 ii FOREWORD This monograph stems from the tactical and op- erational frustrations of the U.S. Southern Command (USSOUTHCOM) regarding citizen and collective security in the Western Hemisphere. These frustra- tions have been demonstrated in each of the annual colloquia that the Strategic Studies Institute and its partners, Florida International University, the Na- tional Defense University, and USSOUTHCOM have conducted over the past 8 years. This monograph also reflects similar frustrations expressed by other U.S. Government organizations and agencies, as well as by various hemispheric governments and security insti- tutions. The urgency and importance of the security is- sue have generated four related themes. First, sev- eral countries in Latin America are paradigms of the failing state and have enormous implications for the stability, development, democracy, prosperity, and peace of the entire Western Hemisphere. Second, the transnational drug and arms trafficking, paramilitary, insurgent, and gang organizations in Mexico, Central and South America, and the Caribbean Basin are per- petrating a level of corruption, criminality, human horror, and internal instability that—if left unchecked at the strategic level—can ultimately threaten the col- lapse of various states and undermine the security and sovereignty of neighbors. Third, poverty, social exclusion, environmental degradation, and political- economic-social expectations—and the conflicts gen- erated by these indirect and implicit threats to stability and human well-being—lead to further degeneration of citizen security. Fourth, these threats constitute a serious challenge to U.S. national security, well-being, iii and position in the global community. Unfortunately, a strategic-level debate has largely been absent from all this discourse. The reality and severity of the threats associated with transnational security issues indicate that the United States and its national and international part- ners need a new paradigm for the conduct of contem- porary warfare and an accompanying new paradigm for strategic leader development. The strategic-level basis of these new paradigms can be found in the fact that the global community is redefining secu- rity in terms of nothing less than a reconceptualiza- tion of sovereignty. In the past, sovereignty was the acknowledged and/or real control of territory and the people in it. Now, sovereignty is the responsibil- ity of governments to protect the well-being of their peoples and to prevent great harm to those peoples. The security dilemma has now become: Why, when, and how to intervene to protect people and prevent egregious human suffering? Thus, we address some of the strategic-level questions and recommendations that arise from this elaboration. We will probably gen- erate more questions than answers, but it is time to begin the strategic-level discussion. This monograph comes at a critical juncture—a time of promise for globalization, creating a world that has become increasingly interconnected and a positive force for good government, human rights, the environment, peace, and prosperity. At the same time, there is profound concern that the fragmentation associated with globalization is acting as a negative force—leading people everywhere to seek refuge in smaller groups, characterized by isolationism, separat- ism, fanaticism, and deteriorating citizen security and well-being. The Strategic Studies Institute is pleased iv to offer this monograph as part of a continuing effort to inform the security debate, move it to a higher level, and support the best interests of the governments and peoples of the Western Hemisphere and the rest of the world. DOUGLAS C. LOVELACE, JR. Director Strategic Studies Institute v ABOUT THE AUTHOR MAX G. MANWARING is a Professor of Mili- tary Strategy in the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) of the U.S. Army War College (USAWC), has held the General Douglas MacArthur Chair of Research at the USAWC, and is a retired U.S. Army colonel. He has served in various civilian and military positions, in- cluding the U.S. Southern Command (USSOUTH- COM), the Defense Intelligence Agency, Dickinson College, and Memphis University. Dr. Manwaring is the author and co-author of several articles, chap- ters, and books dealing with Latin American secu- rity affairs, political-military affairs, and insurgency and counter-insurgency. His most recent book is The Complexity of Modern Irregular War (Norman, OK: Uni- versity of Oklahoma Press, forthcoming). His most recent article is “Three Lessons from Contemporary Challenges to Security,” in PRISM, Vol. 2, No. 3 (June 2011). His most recent SSI monograph is The Strategic Logic of the Contemporary Security Dilemma (Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War Col- lege, forthcoming). Dr. Manwaring is a graduate of the U.S. Army War College, and holds an M.A. and a Ph.D. in political science from the University of Illinois. vii