Additional Praise for The Second Term of George W. Bush: Prospects and Perils “This collection of scholarship is timely and much-needed. It is a well-written, well-researched, and worthwhile addition to the scholarly literature on the presidency in general and on George W. Bush in particular. I believe this text is well-suited to advanced undergraduates as well as graduate students.” ––Denise von Herrmann, University of Southern Mississippi “This book lays to bare key questions and issues that plague all second term presidents and provides a powerful lens to understand the context, con- straints and capacities which presidents must confront. This book will appeal to an advanced undergraduate audience and find a home in political science and history courses on the presidency.” ––Victoria A. Farrar-Myers, The University of Texas at Arlington The Evolving American Presidency Series The Second Term of George W. Bush: Prospects and Perils Edited by Robert Maranto, Douglas M. Brattebo, and Tom Lansford The Second Term of George W. Bush: Prospects and Perils Book Editors Robert Maranto Associate Professor, Political Science Villanova University Douglas M. Brattebo Assistant Professor, Political Science United States Naval Academy Tom Lansford Associate Professor, Political Science University of Southern Mississippi THESECONDTERMOFGEORGEW.BUSH © Robert Maranto,Douglas M.Brattebo,Tom Lansford,2006. Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2006 978-1-4039-7291-0 All rights reserved.No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles or reviews. First published in 2006 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN™ 175 Fifth Avenue,New York,N.Y.10010 and Houndmills,Basingstoke,Hampshire,England RG21 6XS Companies and representatives throughout the world. PALGRAVE MACMILLAN is the global academic imprint of the Palgrave Macmillan division of St.Martin’s Press,LLC and of Palgrave Macmillan Ltd. Macmillan® is a registered trademark in the United States,United Kingdom and other countries.Palgrave is a registered trademark in the European Union and other countries. ISBN 978-1-349-53412-8 I SBN 978-1-4039-8441-8 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/9781403984418 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data The second term of George W.Bush :prospects and perils / book editors,Robert Maranto,Douglas M.Brattebo,Tom Lansford. p.cm.—(The evolving American presidency) Includes bibliographical references and index. 1.United States—Politics and government,2001.2.Bush,George W. (George Walker),1946–.3.United States Foreign relations—2001–. I.Maranto,Robert,1958–.II.Brattebo,Douglas M.III.Lansford,Tom. IV.Series. JK275.S43 2006 973.931092—dc22 2005040164 A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Design by Newgen Imaging Systems (P) Ltd.,Chennai,India. First edition:June 2006 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Contents List of Figures vii List of Tables ix Series Foreword xi Notes on Contributors xiii Part I The Setting One Are Second Terms Second Best? Why George W. Bush Might (or Might Not) Beat the Expectations 3 Jeremy Johnson, Douglas Brattebo, Robert Maranto, and Tom Lansford Two Public Opinion, Presidential Campaigns, and Presidential Governance 21 Roger H. Davidson Part II The Institutions Three The Bush White House Staff in the Second Term: New Structures? New Faces? New Processes? 47 Bradley H. Patterson Four Choices for the President: Structuring the Second-Term Cabinet of President George W. Bush 63 Shirley Anne Warshaw Five George W. Bush and Congress in the Second Term: New Problems—Same Results? 79 Andrew Rudalevige Six Crusade: The Rhetorical Presidency of George Bush 101 John Robert Greene Part III Domestic Policy Seven Judges, Courts, and Policy in President George W. Bush’s Second Term 115 Amy Steigerwalt and Lori A. Johnson vi Contents Part IV The Policies Eight Domestic Policy in the Second Bush Term: The Un-Hidden Hand Leadership of a Conviction President 135 Michael A. Genovese Nine Economic Policy: Responsibility but with Limited Authority 157 Jeffrey E. Cohen Part V Foreign and Security Policy Ten Homeland (In) Security 179 Anne M. Khademian Eleven The Best Defense? Iraq and Beyond 201 Tom Lansford and Jack Covarrubias Twelve Problematic Policies Toward the Middle East 221 Ann M. Lesch Part VI Presidential Leadership Thirteen George W. Bush: A Transformational Leader at Midterm 239 Stanley A. Renshon Index 259 List of Figures 5.1 Presidential success on roll-call votes, 1953–2004 80 5.2 Presidential support in 107th–108th congresses, 2001–2004 88 9.1 S&P 500 index, 1995–2004 160 9.2 Unemployment, the 1990–1991 and 2001 recessions 161 9.3 Federal deficit/surplus as a percentage of GDP, 1976–2003 162 9.4 The public’s most important problem, January–September 2004, Gallup polls 163 This page intentionally left blank List of Tables 1.1 Reelected presidents of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries 4 2.1 Exit poll: Groups’ voting for president, 2004 31 2.2 Exit polls: How the presidential candidates fared 2000–2004: Bush’s performance, 2004 compared with 2000 33 2.3 Intended voters’ views of the candidates 37 4.1 President George W. Bush’s first-term cabinet 64 4.2 Background of second-term Bush cabinet 70 4.3 Cabinet diversity of George W. Bush 72 4.4 Relation between administration and key electoral states 74 8.1 President George W. Bush’s approval ratings: Gallup poll andCNN/USA Today. “Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?” 140 9.1 Most important issue and the 2004 vote 164 9.2 Republican minus Democratic vote by income category, 1992–2004 presidential elections 165