The Russian Military Power and Policy Steven E. Miller and Dmitri Trenin, editors The Russian Military American Academy Studies in Global Security Carl Kaysen, John Steinbruner, and Martin B. Malin, editors Robert Legvold, ed., Thinking Strategically: The Major Powers, Kazakhstan, and the Central Asian Nexus Robert Legvold, Celeste A. Wallander, ed.,Swords and Sustenance: The Economics of Security in Belarus and Ukraine Steven E. Miller, Dmitri V. Trenin, ed., The Russian Military: Power and Policy The American Academy Studies in Global Security book series is edited at the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and published by The MIT Press. Please direct any inquiries about the series to: American Academy of Arts and Sciences 136 Irving Street Cambridge, MA 02138-1996 Telephone: (617) 576-5000 Fax: (617) 576-5050 e-mail: [email protected] Visit our Website at www.amacad.org The Russian Military: Power and Policy Steven E. Miller and Dmitri V. Trenin, editors American Academy of Arts and Sciences Cambridge, Massachusetts The MIT Press Cambridge, Massachusetts London, England © 2004 by the American Academy of Arts and Sciences 136 Irving Street, Cambridge, MA 02138-1996 All Rights Reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from the publisher. This book was set in ITC Galliard by Anne Read. Printed and bound in the United States of America. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data The Russian military: power and policy edited by Steven E. Miller and Dmitri Trenin p. cm.—(American Academy studies in global security) Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-262-13450-0 (alk. paper)—ISBN 0-262-63305-1 (pbk: alk. paper) 1. Russia (Federation)—Armed Forces. 2. Russia (Federation)—Military policy 3. Russia (Federation)—Defenses. I. Miller, Steven E. II. Trenin, Dmitri III. Series. UA770.R843 2004 3550.033047—dc22 2004050463 The views expressed in this volume are those held by each contributor. They do not necessarily represent the position of the Officers and Fellows of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. Contents vii FOREWORD xi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xiii GLOSSARY OF ACRONYMS 1 INTRODUCTION Moscow’s Military Power: Russia’s Search for Security in an Age of Transition Steven E. Miller 43 CHAPTER 1 The Trajectory of the Russian Military: Downsizing, Degeneration, and Defeat Pavel K. Baev 73 CHAPTER 2 The Social and Political Condition of the Russian Military Aleksandr Golts 95 CHAPTER 3 Military Reform: From Crisis to Stagnation Alexei G. Arbatov 121 CHAPTER 4 Russia, Regional Conflict, and the Use of Military Power Roy Allison 157 CHAPTER 5 The Economics of Defense in Russia and the Legacy of Structural Militarization Vitaly V. Shlykov 183 CHAPTER 6 Nuclear Weapons in Current Russian Policy Rose Gottemoeller 217 CONCLUSION Gold Eagle, Red Star Dmitri V. Trenin 233 CONTRIBUTORS 237 INDEX Foreword This book is one of five volumes on security challenges to the international community posed by developments within the vast territory of what was once the Soviet Union. It would take a verylong series indeed to explore in detail all of the security relationships among the successor states of the former Soviet Union. The issues selected for further study in this series we believe are among the most important. The approach to these issues is a practical one: rather than settle for generalizations driven by broad analytical categories, each book deals with a specific manifestation of a selected problem and studies it from the “ground up.” The current volume deals directly with the military profile of the key country in the region, Russia. Not much can be said about the broader international significance of security trends within the former Soviet Union without having some sense of what kind of military power Russia is today. The Russian armed forces remain a scaled-down and much bat- tered version of their Soviet predecessor. This book examines how the Russian military has absorbed the shock of the collapse of empire and simultaneously resisted efforts at serious reform. The authors draw the many dimensions of Russia’s military physiognomy—the evolution of defense policy, the socioeconomic condition of the military, Russia’s use of force in regional conflicts, and its approach to nuclear weapons—into asingle composite picture. The book provides a broad assessment of how Russia fits into both regional and international contexts as a military actor. The next volume to appear in the series will consider the relationship of mutual and national security in the Caucasus region, with a focus on Georgia. Not only is that country undergoing painful political and eco- nomic transformation, but it also suffers from violent internal conflicts that resonate with interregional tensions. Add to this the involvement ofmany external players, as well as the influence of oil politics, and the picture grows very complex. This book will seek to explain how this tor- tured and multilayered context is affecting the way Georgia contends with secessionist violence, approaches its defense establishment, thinks THE RUSSIAN MILITARY vii viii FOREWORD about the role of the military in foreign policy, and manages military rela- tions with its neighbors and outside powers. A previous volume in the series, Swords and Sustenance: The Economics of Security in Belarus and Ukraine (2004), tackles the problem of how economic factors impinge on the national security policies of the states of this region. Unique as some features of Belarus and Ukraine are, the way that economic considerations shape and complicate their national security agendas applies in crucial respects to virtually all of the post-Soviet states because of their geopolitical environment and legacy as Soviet republics. Their environment means Russia looms large as potential partner or potential threat, while Europe and the United States are potential part- ners or problems as well. Their legacy of political and economic integra- tion within the Soviet Union created a high level of dependence on Russia and distance from the Western global economy, affecting the costs and benefits of alternative security policies. The intermingling of eco- nomic and security factors is further deepened by the fact that these countries remain in the earlier stages of their post-Soviet political and economic transitions, rendering their choice often a matter of national sovereignty and survival. The first volume in the series, Thinking Strategically: The Major Powers, Kazakhstan, and the Central Asian Nexus (2003), assesses how systematically, ambitiously, and skillfully the major powers have thought about and pursued their vital stakes in Central Asia. It does so by com- paring the policies of China, Japan, Russia, Europe, and the United States toward a key country in this crucial region, Kazakhstan. Without pretending that the knowledge generated in a specific case study can be applied perfectly to the policies of the major powers in other parts of the former Soviet Union, the book’s basic insights, made richer by the con- crete instance from which they are derived, deepen our understanding of what roles the major powers are playing in the massive hinterland of Europe and Asia. A forerunner to the books in the series, Belarus at the Crossroads (1999), shares the same conception and examines what kinds of security issues are overlooked when the complex challenges raised by the larger post-Soviet space are reduced to the single dimension of Russia’s rela- tionship with the West. The book illuminates the way in which Belarus in its external relations considerably complicates European security issues as NATO expands and analytical energies are focused on resolving Russia’s relationship with it. THE RUSSIAN MILITARY ix Wethank the Carnegie Corporation of New York for its support of the project, which has been carried out under the auspices of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and its Committee on International Security Studies. Robert Legvold is the intellectual and organizational force behind the entire project. We are grateful for the important work he has done to advance our understanding of the inter- national implications of developments within the post-Soviet space. Carl Kaysen and John Steinbruner Co-chairs, Committee on International Security Studies April 2004