OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,17/6/2019,SPi THE RESHAPING OF WEST EUROPEAN PARTY POLITICS OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,17/6/2019,SPi COMPARATIVE POLITICS ComparativePoliticsisaseriesforresearchers,teachers,andstudentsof politicalsciencethatdealswithcontemporarygovernmentandpolitics.Globalinscope, booksintheseriesarecharacterizedbyastressoncomparativeanalysisandstrong methodologicalrigour.TheseriesispublishedinassociationwiththeEuropean ConsortiumforPoliticalResearch.Formoreinformationvisit <http://www.ecprnet.eu> TheseriesiseditedbyEmilievanHaute,ProfessorofPoliticalScience, UniversitélibredeBruxelles;FerdinandMüller-Rommel,Directorofthe CenterfortheStudyofDemocracy,LeuphanaUniversity;andSusanScarrow, John&RebeccaMooresProfessorofPoliticalScience,UniversityofHouston. OTHERTITLESINTHISSERIES PartyReform TheCauses,Challenges,andConsequencesofOrganizationalChange AnikaGauja HowEuropeansViewandEvaluateDemocracy EditedbyMónicaFerrínandHanspeterKriesi FacesontheBallot ThePersonalizationofElectoralSystemsinEurope AlanRenwickandJean-BenoitPilet ThePoliticsofPartyLeadership ACross-NationalPerspective EditedbyWilliamCrossandJean-BenoitPilet BeyondPartyMembers ChangingApproachestoPartisanMobilization SusanE.Scarrow InstitutionalDesignandPartyGovernmentinPost-CommunistEurope CsabaNikolenyi RepresentingthePeople ASurveyamongMembersofStatewideandSub-stateParliaments EditedbyKrisDeschouwerandSamDepauw NewPartiesinOldPartySystems PersistenceandDeclineinSeventeenDemocracies NicoleBolleyer TheLimitsofElectoralReform EditedbyShaunBowlerandToddDonovan TheChallengesofIntra-PartyDemocracy EditedbyWilliamP.CrossandRichardS.Katz OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,17/6/2019,SPi The Reshaping of West European Party Politics Agenda-Setting and Party Competition in Comparative Perspective CHRISTOFFER GREEN-PEDERSEN 1 OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,17/6/2019,SPi 3 GreatClarendonStreet,Oxford,OX26DP, UnitedKingdom OxfordUniversityPressisadepartmentoftheUniversityofOxford. ItfurtherstheUniversity’sobjectiveofexcellenceinresearch,scholarship, andeducationbypublishingworldwide.Oxfordisaregisteredtrademarkof OxfordUniversityPressintheUKandincertainothercountries ©ChristofferGreen-Pedersen2019 Themoralrightsoftheauthorhavebeenasserted FirstEditionpublishedin2019 Impression:1 Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedin aretrievalsystem,ortransmitted,inanyformorbyanymeans,withoutthe priorpermissioninwritingofOxfordUniversityPress,orasexpresslypermitted bylaw,bylicenceorundertermsagreedwiththeappropriatereprographics rightsorganization.Enquiriesconcerningreproductionoutsidethescopeofthe aboveshouldbesenttotheRightsDepartment,OxfordUniversityPress,atthe addressabove Youmustnotcirculatethisworkinanyotherform andyoumustimposethissameconditiononanyacquirer PublishedintheUnitedStatesofAmericabyOxfordUniversityPress 198MadisonAvenue,NewYork,NY10016,UnitedStatesofAmerica BritishLibraryCataloguinginPublicationData Dataavailable LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2019931800 ISBN 978–0–19–884289–7 PrintedandboundinGreatBritainby ClaysLtd,ElcografS.p.A. LinkstothirdpartywebsitesareprovidedbyOxfordingoodfaithand forinformationonly.Oxforddisclaimsanyresponsibilityforthematerials containedinanythirdpartywebsitereferencedinthiswork. OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,17/6/2019,SPi Preface This book is the result of 20 years’ interest in two topics, namely party competition and agenda-setting. Bringing my research on these two topics together in a book has been my ambition for many years. Beyond the satisfactionoffinallyachievingthisambition,thepublication ofthisbookis alsoafantasticopportunitytothankthemanypeoplewhohavehelpedmein doingso. MyinterestinpartycompetitionhasbeenwithmesincemyPhDdisserta- tion. My interest in agenda-setting is actually just as old. In 1998, I took a graduate course in agenda-setting at the University of Bergen with the late RichardMatlandandFrankBaumgartner.Atthattime,agenda-settingwas not on my agenda, but the course opened my eyes to the agenda-setting literature, and I was sure that agenda-setting was on my future research agenda. The course in Bergen was also my first meeting with Frank and his approachtoresearch.Myownworkonagenda-settingreallypickedupwhen JohnWilkersonfromtheUniversityofWashingtonwasavisitingscholarin Aarhusin2001andputmeintouchwithhiscolleagueBryanJones.Agrant fromtheDanishSocialScienceResearchCouncilthenallowedmetocollect thefirstdataforwhatwastobecometheDanishpolicyagendasproject.The grantalsoallowedmetospendasemesterattheUniversityofWashingtonin thespringof2004.ThecloseinteractionwithJohnandBryanallowedmeto push the project beyond the data collection phase. Over the years, working with Bryan, Frank, and John has been a source of enormous inspiration. Seeingwhat social science looks like at its besttaught me what to strive for. Thankstothethreeofyouforallthesupportovertheyears. My interaction with the scholars behind the American Policy Agendas Project was part of what later developed into the Comparative Agendas ProjectknownasCAP.CAPisnotreallyaproject,butanetworkofscholars with an interest in agenda-setting. Through an annual conference and many other activities, the CAP community has become an open academic family whoseinfluenceonthisbookishardtooverestimate.Thankstoallthepeople whohavecontributedtotheCAPcommunityovertheyears. Mymorefocusedworkonthisbookbeganin2012.Ihadjustobtainedthe DanishhigherdoctoraldegreepartlybasedonabookfocusedonDenmark, and I wanted to expand the idea into a comparative book. Grants from the DanishSocialScienceResearchCouncilandtheAarhusUniversityResearch FoundationallowedmetosetupthePOLISresearchgroup.Thegrantsalso madeitpossibleformetohavetworesearchstaysatUNCChapelHillwith OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,17/6/2019,SPi vi Preface my family in 2012 and 2014. These two stays were unforgettable for us and gavemethetimeandenvironmenttolaythefoundationforthisbook.Thanks again to Frank Baumgartner for all his help in making these two stays both possibleandsorewarding.ThanksalsototheUNCPoliticalScienceDepart- mentandtheCentreforEuropeanStudiesanditsdirectorJohnD.Stephens forhostingme. From2012to2016,thePOLISresearchgroupwasaflourishingcontextfor discussingtheideasthatIwastryingtodevelopforthebook.Thankstothe members of the group: Flori So, Thomas Leeper, Henrik Seeberg, Gunnar Thesen, Peter B. Mortensen, Rune Slothuus, and Rune Stubager for their contributiontothemanymeetingsanddiscussionsofthegroup. Myalmamater,theDepartmentofPoliticalScienceatAarhusUniversity has always been a fantastic place to work. When POLIS ended, I had an almostendlessnumberoffantasticcolleaguesIcouldapproachforcomments ondraftsofchapters.ThankstoKeesvanKersbergen,CarstenJensen,Rune Slothuus, Henrik Seeberg, and Peter B. Mortensen for reading their way through often several versions of the same chapter. Also thanks to Kim Sønderskov for showing all the smart things STATA can do, which saved mehoursofwork. AnumberofpeopleoutsidetheUniversityofAarhushavealsoinfluenced thisbookandindifferentwayshelpedmecompleteit.WhileatChapelHill, HerbertKitscheltfromtheneighbouringDukeUniversitynotonlyinvitedme fornichelunches,butalsocommentedintensivelyonmyideas.Iamnotsure thisbookwillconvincehimthatpartypoliticsshouldbestudiedinthisway, buthiscriticismforcedmetothinkmuchmoreclearlyaboutmyarguments. Overtheyears,Ihavealsohadthegreatpleasureofdiscussingmyworkwith Hanspeter Kriesi. In some ways, this book is a criticism of his work, but discussing with him is always both a pleasure and highly rewarding. Also thankstoTarikAbou-Chadi,whohadasmallroleinthePOLISproject,for reading large parts of the manuscript and providing excellent feedback. The tworeviewersatOUPalsodeservemythanksforcarefulandcritical,butalso constructiveengagementwiththemanuscript. WhenIbeganthis bookproject,CAPcodingofpartymanifestoswasnot available for all the countries I was interested in, so I needed the help from other people to code the manifestos. Thanks to Nina Liljeqvist for cooper- ation on coding the Swedish manifestos. Thanks to Isabelle Guinaudeau for setting up the coding of the German manifestos and also for providing me with the updated version of the French data. Furthermore, thanks to Simon OtjesfororganizingthecodingoftheDutchmanifestos.Wealsoco-authored anarticle(Green-PedersenandOtjes2017)onwhichChapter8ispartlybased. Finally,thankstoJeroenJolyforansweringallmyquestionsontheBelgium dataandtoCatherineFroiforprovingtheUKdata.ThomasPogunkteand ThomasSaalfeldwereveryhelpfulinmystrugglewithenvironmentalpolitics OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,17/6/2019,SPi Preface vii inGermany,andAndrewJordanandRomanSenningerhelpedmewiththe EUdata,which,intheend,however,didnotfindtheirwayintothebook. Overtheyears,Ihavebeenfortunatetohavetheopportunityofpresenting parts of this book to a number of institutions. This includes the University of Strathclyde, the University of Gothenburg, the University of Southern Denmark, the Berlin Graduate School of Social Science, the University of South Carolina, and the University of Bamberg. Thanks to the participants onalltheseoccasionsfortheirmanyvaluableinputs. An additional factor that makes the Department of Political Science at Aarhus University such a great place to work is the friendly and efficient administrative staff. Thanks to Helle Bundgaard, Annette Andersen, and HelleHornemannMøllerfortheircarefulworkwithreferencesandlanguage editing. Last, but not least, thanks to those at home, my wife Lone and my kids Jacob,Kasper,andLeawhohaveputupwithallmyfrustrationsduringthe project and accepted the Saturdays when I was buried in the manuscript. Icouldnotimagineabetterbaseathome. Idedicatethisbooktomythreechildren.Whenthisbegan,theywerestill kids.Nowtheyhavegrownintosomethingelse,butformetheywillalwaysbe mysmallkids.Pleaserememberthatheightisasocialconstruction. OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,17/6/2019,SPi OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,17/6/2019,SPi Table of Contents ListofFigures xi ListofTables xiii 1. WhatHasHappenedtoPartyPoliticsinWesternEurope? NewParties,NewIssues,andNewConflicts 1 2. Bottom-UporTop-Down?TheoreticalApproachestothe ContentofWestEuropeanPartyPolitics 10 3. TheIssueIncentiveModelofPartySystemAttention 24 4. DataSourcesfortheStudyofthePartySystemAgenda 41 5. TheDevelopmentofthePartySystemAgendainWestern Europe:AnOverview 52 6. TheDynamicsofthePartySystemAgenda 71 7. ExpansionfromtheRight:TheGrowthofImmigrationon thePartySystemAgenda 82 8. AnEver-SleepingGiant?EuropeanIntegrationontheParty SystemAgenda 99 9. UpandDownwiththeEnvironment 114 10. AttentiontoEducationinthePost-IndustrialSociety 135 11. EveryoneReallyLovesHealthCare 153 12. TheIssueContentofWestEuropeanPartyPolitics: TheCentralRoleofLarge,MainstreamParties,butfor HowLong? 169 References 189 Index 207