The Puzzle of Humanitarian Intervention: Why the US militarily intervenes in some failed or fragile nation states and abstains from others By Julissa Rachelle Rachor A THESIS Submitted to Oregon State University In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Bachelor of Arts in International Studies in Political Science Presented on September 02, 2014 Commencement September 2014 AN ABSTRACT OF THE THESIS OF Julissa Rachelle Rachor for the degree of Bachelor of Arts in International Studies in Political Science presented on September 02, 2014. Title: The Puzzle of Humanitarian Intervention: Why the US militarily intervenes in some failed or fragile nation states and abstains from others? Abstract approved: ______________________________________________________ David Bernell Humanitarian intervention by the United States has increased since the end of the Cold War. This thesis examines the cases of Somalia, Rwanda, Libya and Syria as to explore why the US chooses to offer various amounts of aid to some failed or fragile nation states and not others. Rwanda offers an example of avoiding intervention by the US, while Somalia represents the largest effort of the four cases, with Libya and Syria in between the two. This analysis will first examine the grand strategies that inform and explain the actions of US foreign policy-makers in the post-Cold-War era. It will then examine the role of four key explanatory factors: national interests, international support, public opinion, and the media influence. This thesis argues that, with respect to each of the four case studies: 1) the United States will not engage in humanitarian intervention unless its national interests are directly affected; 2) in the absence of national interests, the US cannot sustain support for extended commitments because of the human and financial costs, 3) the results of previous conflicts have the effect of preventing future interventions; and 4) democratic nation-building has become the strategic and moral standard by which the US decides to intervene in failed or fragile states. Each of these influential factors are invariably linked to one another and to an often-evolving notion of how broadly the idea of “US national interests” is to be defined by policymakers. 2 © By Julissa Rachelle Rachor September 02, 2014 All Rights Reserved 3 Bachelor of Arts in International Studies in Political Science thesis of Julissa Rachelle Rachor presented on September 02, 2014. Approved: __________________________________________________________________ David Bernell, Political Science Programs, Department of Public Policy __________________________________________________________________ Chair of School of Public Policy __________________________________________________________________ Nick Fleury, Head Advisor, International Degree Program I understand that my thesis will become part of the collection of Oregon State University. My signature below authorizes release of my thesis to any reader upon request. I also affirm that the work represented in this thesis is my own work. __________________________________________________________________ Julissa Rachelle Rachor, Author 4 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS To my mother and father, I thank you both for the opportunity that you have given me to succeed in life and at Oregon State University. I love you both for your sacrifices and your love. To my grandfather and grandmother, you both have been such an inspiration in my life and have taught me what it means to put in the hard work to succeed and never to give up hope. To my family and friends, who have stuck with me through the years and continue to motivate me to do my best, you all kept this goal of finishing this thesis alive. To my thesis advisors David Bernell and Nick Fleury, I thank you both for your patience, support and motivational talks to help see this thesis through. Thank you. 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page 1 Introduction………..………………….......................................... 11 2 Review of Literature...................................................................... 14 2.1 US Foreign Policy Strategies Post Cold War......................... 14 2.1.1 Neo-Isolationism........................................................ 14 2.1.2 Selective Engagement................................................ 15 2.1.3 Cooperative Security.................................................. 17 2.1.4 Primacy...................................................................... 18 2.2 Understanding Humanitarian Intervention and R2P.............. 20 2.2.1 State Sovereignty vs. Intervention............................. 22 2.3 What determines US humanitarian intervention?.................. 24 2.3.1 National Interest......................................................... 25 2.3.2 International Support................................................. 26 2.3.3 Public Opinion........................................................... 26 2.3.4 Media Influence......................................................... 28 3 Methods............................................................................................. 29 4 Tying Hands and Washing Hands.................................................. 31 4.1 Case Study I: Somalia............................................................ 31 4.1.1 Historical Context...................................................... 31 4.1.2 National Interest......................................................... 34 4.1.3 International Support................................................. 35 4.1.4 Public Opinion........................................................... 36 6 4.1.5 Media Influence......................................................... 36 4.1.6 Implications of Intervention....................................... 37 4.2 Case Study II: Rwanda........................................................... 38 4.2.1 Historical Context...................................................... 38 4.2.2 National Interest......................................................... 41 4.2.3 International Support................................................. 42 4.2.4 Public Opinion........................................................... 43 4.2.5 Media Influence......................................................... 43 4.2.6 Implications of (Non) Intervention............................ 44 4.3 Case Study III: Libya............................................................. 45 4.3.1 Historical Context...................................................... 45 4.3.2 National Interest......................................................... 47 4.3.3 International Support................................................. 49 4.3.4 Public Opinion........................................................... 50 4.3.5 Media Influence......................................................... 53 4.3.6 Implications of Intervention....................................... 54 4.4 Case Study IV: Syria............................................................... 55 4.4.1 Historical Context...................................................... 55 4.4.2 National Interest......................................................... 56 4.4.3 International Support................................................. 58 4.4.4 Public Opinion........................................................... 58 4.4.5 Media Influence......................................................... 59 4.4.6 Why the US has not intervened................................. 59 7 5 Conclusion……………...................…........................................... 62 Bibliography................................................................................................. 69 Appendices.................................................................................................... 73 Appendix A Criteria for Military Intervention using R2P............. 73 8 LIST OF FIGURES Table Page Figure 1. The US spectrum of intervention from 1990’s to present day................... 12 Figure 2. Approval Rating for Intervention in Libya on March 21, 2011................. 51 Figure 3. Approval Ratings of Intervention over the last three decades................... 51 Figure 4. Comparison of Approval Ratings for US intervention in Libya from March 21, 2011 to June 22, 201..................................................................... 52 LIST OF TABLES Table Page Table 1. Comparison of each nation state and the four factors ............................... 66 9 LIST OF APPENDICES Table Page Appendix A Criteria for Military Intervention using R2P.......................... 73 10