THE PROCESS OF POLITICAL SUCCESSION Also by Peter Calven THE MEXICAN REVOLUTION, 1910-1914: The Diplomacy of Anglo-American Conflict LATIN AMERICA: Internal Conflict and International Peace REVOLUTION (Key Concepts in Political Science) A STUDY OF REVOLUTION MEXICO THE MEXICANS: How They Live and Work EMILIANO ZAPATA THE CONCEPT OF CLASS THE FALKLANDS CRISIS: The Rights and the Wrongs POLITICS, POWER AND REVOLUTION: An Introduction to Comparative Politics REVOLUTION AND INTERNATIONAL POLITICS GUATEMALA: A Nation in Turmoil THE FOREIGN POLICY OF NEW STATES The Process of Political Succession Edited by Peter Calvert Professor of Comparative and International Politics University of Southampton Palgrave Macmillan ISBN 978-1-349-08980-2 ISBN 978-1-349-08978-9 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-08978-9 © Peter Calvert 1987 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1987 978-0-333-42401-8 Chapter 6 is reproduced by kind permission of the Regents of the University of California. All rights reserved. For information write: Scholarly & Reference Division, St. Martin's Press, Inc., 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010 First published in the United States of America in 1987 ISBN 978-0-312-00771-3 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data The Process of political succession. Bibliography: p. Includes index. 1. Heads of state-Succession. I. Calvert, Peter JF285.P76 1987 351.003'6 87-4845 ISBN 978-0-312-00771-3 Contents List of Tables vii Notes on the Contributors ix Preface xi 2 Political Succession and Political Change Peter Calvert 2 PART I CASE-STUDIES IN POLITICAL SUCCESSION 2 Political Succession in Western Europe Peter Calvert 27 3 Political Succession during the Transition to Independence: Evidence from Europe John Coakley 59 4 Political Succession in the Ottoman Empire and Modern Turkey C. H Dodd 80 5 Political Succession in the Soviet Union: Buildin! a Power Base Peter Frank 92 6 Political Succession in the People's Republic of China: Rule by Purge. Eberhard Sandschneider 110 7 Political Succession and Political Change: The Case of Nigeria Alan Brier 135 8 Domestic Causes of Military Involvement in Political Succession in Argentina Susan Milbank 172 vi Contents PART II TOWARDS A THEORY OF POLITICAL SUCCESSION 9 Political Succession as Policy Succession: Why So Much Stability? Hannu Nurmi 203 10 A Structural Analysis of Political Succession A. M Potter 223 11 The Theory of Political Succession Peter Calvert 245 Bibliography 267 Index 283 List of Tables 1.1 United Kingdom: political succession since 1940 9 1.2 United States: presidential succession since 1940 9 1.3 Ireland: nomination of Taoiseach, 1938-82 14 2.1 France: presidential and parliamentary succession since 1940 32 2.2 Belgium: succession since 1940 38 2.3 The Netherlands: succession since 1940 39 2.4 Italy: succession since 1940 41 2.5 West Germany: succession since 1940 49 3.1 Population and social structure of new European states at first post-war census, 1920-6 62 3.2 Competing successor regimes, 1917-23 76 5.1 Political succession in the Soviet Union since 1940 93 5.2 Periodisation of Soviet succession, March 1979- March 1986 98 5.3 Turnover of CPSU obkom first secretaries, March 1979-March 1986 99 5.4 Politburo and Secretariat of the CPSU CC (as at 6 March 1986 following the plenum that day of the CPSU CC at the close of the twenty-seventh Congress) 107 5.5 Politburo and Secretariat of the CC of the CPSU (as at 6 March 1986) 108 6.1 PRC: succession since 1949 114 6.2 Leadership positions in the PRC, 1977-86 129 7.1 Succession events in Nigeria 146 8.1 Argentina: succession 1810-1940 173 8.2 Argentina: political succession since 1940 175 9.1 Percentage agreement of electoral outcomes with the Condorcet winners in Merrill's (1984) study 212 9.2 The percentage of Condorcet loser choices by AV and PL under impartial culture assumption 212 9.3 The percentage of Condorcet loser choices by AV and PL in elections with a Condorcet loser under the bipolar culture assumption 213 Vll viii List of Tables 9.4 The percentage of Condorcet loser choices by AV and PL in elections with a Condorcet loser under the unipolar culture assumption 214 11.1 United Kingdom: party leadership since 1940 256 11.2 West Germany: party leadership since 1949 257 Notes on the Contributors Peter Calvert is Professor of Comparative and International Politics at the University of Southampton. Many of his published works deal with the politics and international relations of the western hemisphere countries. His keen interest in extending the theory of comparative politics and in Europe is, however, reflected in his Revolution (1970) and A Study of Revolution (1970), The Concept of Class (1982) and Politics, Power and Revolution (1983). Alan Brier is Lecturer in Politics at the University of Southampton. He has specialised in quantitative approaches to the study of politics and political sociology, and is the joint author of Computers and the Social Sciences (1975). John Coakley is Lecturer in Politics in the Department of European Studies, National Institute for Higher Education, Limerick. Among his recent articles are 'Nationalist movements and national minorities', European Journal of Political Research, 1980, and 'National territories and cultural frontiers', West European Politics, 1982; his planning session paper, 'Selecting a prime minister - the Irish experience', was published in Parliamentary Affairs in 1984. C. H. Dodd is Professor of Politics at the University of Hull and Professorial Research Associate in the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London. He is author of Political Development (1974), Democracy and Development in Turkey (1979), The Crisis of Turkish Democracy (1983), and other books and articles mainly on Middle Eastern subjects. Peter Frank is Senior Lecturer in Soviet Government and Politics at the University of Essex. He is co-author (with R. J. Hill) of The Soviet Communist Party (3rd edition, 1987) and of articles on Soviet govern ment and politics. Susan Milbank is Head of Sociology at Corfe Hills School, Wimborne, Dorset. A research student in politics at the University of Southampton, working on 'Political culture and political instability in Argentina', she is the author of ' An Argentinian security perspective', in Caroline Thomas (ed.), Third World Perceptions of Security. ix