The Politics of Pact-Making Political Evolution and Institutional Change Bo Rothstein and Sven Steinmo,editors Exploring the dynamic relationships among political institutions,attitudes,behaviors,and outcomes, this series is problem-driven and pluralistic in methodology.It examines the evolution of gover- nance,public policy,and political economy in different national and historical contexts. It will explore social dilemmas,such as collective-action problems,and enhance understanding of how political outcomes result from the interaction among political ideas—including values,beliefs, or social norms—institutions,and interests.It will promote cutting-edge work in historical institu- tionalism,rational choice,and game theory,and the processes of institutional change and/or evolu- tionary models of political history. Restructuring the Welfare State:Political Institutions and Policy Change Edited by Bo Rothstein and Sven Steinmo The Problem of Forming Social Capital:Why Trust? By Francisco Herreros The Personal and the Political:How Personal Welfare State Experiences Affect Political Trust and Ideology By Staffan Kumlin Building a Trustworthy State in Post-Socialist Transition Edited by János Kornai and Susan Rose-Ackerman Creating Social Trust in Post-Socialist Transition Edited by János Kornai,Bo Rothstein,and Susan Rose-Ackerman The Politics of Pact-Making:Hungary’s Negotiated Transition to Democracy in Comparative Perspective By John W.Schiemann The Politics of Pact-Making Hungary’s Negotiated Transition to Democracy in Comparative Perspective John W.Schiemann THEPOLITICSOFPACT-MAKING © John W.Schiemann,2005. Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2005 978-1-4039-7109-8 All rights reserved.No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles or reviews. First published in 2005 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN™ 175 Fifth Avenue,New York,N.Y.10010 and Houndmills,Basingstoke,Hampshire,England RG21 6XS Companies and representatives throughout the world. PALGRAVE MACMILLAN is the global academic imprint of the Palgrave Macmillan division of St.Martin’s Press,LLC and of Palgrave Macmillan Ltd. Macmillan® is a registered trademark in the United States,United Kingdom and other countries.Palgrave is a registered trademark in the European Union and other countries. ISBN 978-1-349-53273-5 ISBN 978-1-4039-7857-8 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/9781403978578 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Schiemann,John W. The politics of pact-making :Hungary’s negotiated transition to democracy in comparative perspective / John W.Schiemann. p.cm.—(Political evolution and institutional change) Includes bibliographical references and index. 1.Democratization—Hungary.2.Negotiation—Hungary.3.Hungary— Politics and government—1989–.4.Comparative government.I.Title. II.Series. JN2165.S35 2005 320.9439(cid:1)09(cid:2)048—dc22 2005049185 A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Design by Newgen Imaging Systems (P) Ltd.,Chennai,India. First edition:November 2005 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 For my parents This page intentionally left blank C O N T E N T S List of Figures and Tables ix Abbreviations x Preface and Acknowledgments xi Introduction 1 Goals 2 The Basic Argument 3 Overview 6 One Pact-Making,Bargaining,and Institutional Choice 10 The Empirical Puzzle 11 A Framework for Analysis:Pacts,Rules,and Institutions 18 Pact-making,Bargaining,and Risk-taking 19 Uncertainty and Beliefs,Mental Models and Transition Players 27 A Model of Pact-Making 30 Case Studies:Hungary in Comparative and Counterfactual Perspective 34 Two Pact-Making in Hungary:The 1989 Hungarian Roundtable Talks 37 Dissidents and Populists,Reformers and Conservatives 38 Pact-Making about Pact-Making 49 Negotiating Democracy:The National Roundtable Talks 63 Summary 83 viii Contents Three Presidentialism,Parliamentarism,and Opposition Intransigence:The Presidency 85 An MSZMP Presidency 86 The Opposition on the Presidency 88 The Negotiated Design of Presidential Powers 97 Election Rules 105 Summary 111 Four From Perverse Checks and Balances to Guardian of the Constitution:The Constitutional Court 115 The MSZMP’s Strategy:Institutionalizing a Perverse Checks and Balances 116 The Opposition and the Constitutional Court 124 Bargaining Over the Constitutional Court 131 Summary 136 Five Comparative Perspectives:South Africa,Poland, and China 139 South Africa,1990–1994:From Risk-taking to Risk-averse Bargaining Strategies 139 Poland,1989:A Risk-averse Opposition and Risk-taking Softliners 146 China,1989:A Risk-taking Opposition and a Risk-taking Regime 153 Summary 162 Conclusion 165 Counterfactual Pact-Making in Hungary 166 Pact-making,Institutional Choice,and Rational Action 173 Appendix:Sources and Data 179 List of Interviews 180 Notes 181 References 198 Index 209 L I S T O F F I G U R E S A N D T A B L E S Figures 1.1 Comparison of MSZMP institutional plans and transition outcomes 14 1.2 An opposition negotiator decision problem 24 1.3 Revised typology of democratization actors 28 1.4 Pact-making outcomes 32 2.1 Major participants in the National Roundtable Negotiations 63 2.2 Bargaining profiles of NKA actors 83 5.1 Pact-making outcomes in Hungary,South Africa, Poland,and China 163 6.1 Pact-making outcomes,actual and counterfactual 166 Tables 2.1 Strategic differences between risk-averse and risk-taking softliners 40 2.2 Strategic differences between risk-averse and risk-taking parties in the EKA 74 3.1 Distributional results of bargaining over the presidency 112 4.1 Distributional results of bargaining over the constitutional court 137