Vienna International Centre,P.O. Box 500,A-1400 Vienna,Austria Tel:(+43 1) 26060-0,Fax:(+43 1) 26060-5866,www.unodc.org T THE OPIUM ECONOMY H E O P IN AFGHANISTAN I U M E C An International Problem O N O M Y I N A F G H A N I S T A N — A n I n t e r n a t i o n a l P r o b l e m United Nations publication Printed in Austria Sales No. E.03.XI.6 V.03-80243–January 2003–500 ISBN 92-1-148157-0 Acknowledgements The following individuals contributed to the preparation of the present book: Sandeep Chawla, Chief, Research Section Thomas Pietschmann, Research and Analysis (Research Section) Thibault le Pichon, The role of Afghanistan as a source of illicit opiates (Research Section) Aruna Nathwani, Maps and graphics (Research Section) Johny Thomas, Graphics, maps and desktop publishing (Research Section) Melissa Tullis, Publishing (Research Section) The preparation of the book would not have been possible without the contributions of several individuals and sections of the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, and particularly the Field Offices in Afghanistan, Central Asia (Tashkent), Islamic Republic of Iran and Pakistan Over the years, many staff of the UN Office on Drugs and Crimehave contributed to expanding the knowledge base on the opium economy of Afghanistan and its regional impact. While it is not possible to acknowledge all of them, the following deserve particular mention: Nazir Ahmad, Mohammed-Reza Amirkhizi, Roberto Arbitrio, Temur Aziz, Xavier Bouan, Doris Buddenberg, Antonella Deledda, Denis Destrebecq, Bernard Frahi, Paul Griffiths, Sayed Hassan, David Mansfield, Antonio Mazzitelli, David Stewart MacDonald, Kamran Niaz, Barbara Remberg, Howard Stead, and Richard Ian Will. OFFICE ON DRUGS AND CRIME Vienna THE OPIUM ECONOMY IN AFGHANISTAN An International Problem UNITED NATIONS New York, 2003 The Office for Drug Control and Crime Prevention (UNODCCP) became the Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) on 1 October 2002. The Office on Drugs and Crime includes the United Nations International Drug Control Programme (UNDCP). United Nations Publication Sales No. E.03.XI.6 ISBN 92-1-148157-0 The boundaries, names and designations used in all maps in this book do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. This publication has not been formally edited. Preface PREFACE For more than two millennia, Afghanistan has been at the crossroads of civilizations and a major contributor to world culture. In the past quarter century, the country has also found itself at the crossroads of international terrorist violence and became a major contributor to world narcotics production. As a consequence, Afghanistan now faces a historic challenge. Although counter-terrorism is the key battleground, the enemy has to be confronted on other fronts as well, first and foremost in the struggle against illicit drugs. This challenge can be faced: Thailand, Pakistan and Turkey (on the opium front), Bolivia and Peru (on the cocaine front) have shown that legal and commercially viable crops can replace illicit cultivation. The establishment of democracy in Afghanistan and the Government’s measures against cultivation, trade and abuse of opium have been crucial steps towards solving the drug problem. Yet, other news has not been good. For example, last year’s opium poppy harvest was among the highest in the country’s history. Not surprisingly, public opinion, both in Afghanistan and abroad, is perplexed. Nagging questions are raised. Why is the international presence in Afghanistan not able to bring under control a phenomenon connected to international terrorism and organized crime? Why is the central Government in Kabul not able to enforce the ban on opium cultivation as effectively as the Taliban regime did in 2000-01? There are no simple answers to these questions. The opium economy of Afghanistan is an intensely complex phenomenon. In the past, it reached deeply into the political structure, civil society and economy of the country. Spawned after decades of civil and military strife, it has chained a poor rural population – farmers, landless labour, small traders, women and children - to the mercy of domestic warlords and international crime syndicates that continue to dominate several areas in the south, north and east of the country. Dismantling the opium economy will be a long and complex process. It cannot simply be done by military or authoritarian means. That has been tried in the past, and was unsustainable. It must be done with the instruments of democracy, the rule of law, and development. Does Afghanistan face an insoluble problem? No, if we all play our parts in the solution. Afghanistan’s drug economy can be dismantled if the Government, with the assistance of the international community, addresses the roots of the matter and not only its symptoms. This report exposes such roots, as a contribution to the common effort against illicit drugs. First, the report de-constructs the opium economy of Afghanistan into its main components: cultivation, production, finance, trade and consumption. Secondly, the report re-constructs the country’s development processes piece by piece, showing that it is essential: (i) to help poor farmers decide in favour of licit crops; (ii) to replace narco-usury with micro-lending; (iii) to provide jobs to women and to itinerant workers; (iv) to provide education to children, particularly girls; (v) to turn bazaars into modern commodity markets; and (vi) to neutralize warlords’ efforts to keep the evil trade alive. National efforts will not be enough. The problem is international. Afghanistan’s cultivation, trafficking and drug abuse have ramifications that reach deeply into the region’s post-colonial history, and widely into the contemporary geo-politics of terrorism and violence. Hence convergent efforts are needed by countries through which Afghan opiates are trafficked, and where heroin abuse nourishes the opium economy. In other words, all countries that are part of the Afghan drug problem should be part of its solution. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, which is the foremost setting for multilateral policy against drugs, and a major provider of technical assistance on counter-narcotic affairs, hopes that this informal report will raise public awareness about an issue that deserves world attention. Antonio Maria Costa Executive Director United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime January 2003 1 Table of contents TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................5 PART 1: DIMENSIONS 1. Afghanistan’s illicit opium economy: size and shape..................................................................19 1.1. Socio-economic context ......................................................................................................21 1.2. Afghanistan as a source of illicit opium................................................................................28 1.3. Trafficking.............................................................................................................................33 1.4. Geography of opium cultivation and trafficking....................................................................38 1.5. The regional dimensions of the opium economy.................................................................48 1.6. Opium markets and bazaars................................................................................................54 1.7. Income derived from the opium economy............................................................................61 1.7.1. Income from opium production................................................................................61 1.7.2. Income from trafficking............................................................................................64 1.8. Abuse ................................................................................................................................71 PART 2: ORIGINS 2. Historical roots of the opium economy..........................................................................................81 2.1. State formation .........................................................................................................................82 2.2. Opium and the war economy...............................................................................................….87 3. Poverty, devastation and farmers’ motivations............................................................................99 3.1. An expensive crop produced with cheap labour (women and children)..............................99 3.1.1. High profitability in 1999........................................................................................100 3.1.2. Decline of profitability in 2000...............................................................................101 3.1.3. Enormous profitability in 2001 and 2002...............................................................104 3.2. Diffusion of know-how by itinerant workers.......................................................................105 4. Bazaars, finance and narco-usurers ..........................................................................................113 4.1. Opium as a source of credit ..............................................................................................113 4.2. Credit available to opium farmers......................................................................................117 4.2.1. Salaam (advance payments)..................................................................................117 4.2.2. Purchase of commodities on credit.........................................................................122 4.2.3. Interest free loans...................................................................................................122 4.2.4. Indebtedness and incidence of default...................................................................122 5. Greed, warlords and the opium trade..........................................................................................127 5.1. Socio-political context........................................................................................................127 5.2. Why traders engage in the opium trade.............................................................................128 5.3. Profitability of the opium trade...........................................................................................129 5.4. Profitability of heroin manufacture.....................................................................................132 5.5. Profitability of heroin trafficking..........................................................................................140 3 The opium economy in Afghanistan: An international problem PART 3: REGIONAL CONSEQUENCES 6. Devastation in neighbouring countries......................................................................................147 6.1. Socio-economic context.....................................................................................................147 6.1.1. Population..............................................................................................................147 6.1.2. Size of economies.................................................................................................148 6.1.3. Level of development............................................................................................149 6.1.4. Economic growth...................................................................................................150 6.1.5. Foreign trade.........................................................................................................150 6.2. Trafficking...........................................................................................................................152 6.2.1. Iran...........................................................................................................................156 6.2.2. Pakistan....................................................................................................................157 6.2.3. Central Asia..............................................................................................................158 6.3. Mega-income and profits....................................................................................................160 6.3.1. Methodology.............................................................................................................160 6.3.2. Results.....................................................................................................................161 6.3.2.1. Quantities trafficked..................................................................................161 6.3.2.2. Trafficking profits......................................................................................165 6.4. Abuse and treatment .........................................................................................................168 6.4.1. Pakistan....................................................................................................................171 6.4.2. Iran...........................................................................................................................178 6.4.3. Central Asia..............................................................................................................185 6.5. The spread of HIV/AIDS ....................................................................................................194 6.5.1. Pakistan....................................................................................................................195 6.5.2. Iran...........................................................................................................................196 6.5.3. Central Asia..............................................................................................................197 6.6. Economic vulnerability .......................................................................................................203 CONCLUSION The way forward.................................................................................................................209 ANNEXES Annex 1 Afghanistan opium poppy cultivation, 2002...........................................................211 Annex 2 Afghanistan opium production, 2002.....................................................................212 Annex 3 Afghanistan opium poppy estimates, 2002...........................................................213 Annex 4 Afghanistan opium production estimates, 2002....................................................216 Annex 5 Dry opium prices from March 1997 to November 2002........................................217 Annex 6 Afghanistan opium prices, 2001-2002...................................................................218 Annex 7 Heroin prices per gram in Afghanistan, neigbouring countries and Europe in US dollars in 2001..........................................................................221 Annex 8 Global illicit opium poppy cultivation and production, 1990-2002.........................222 4 Executive Summary EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Background The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime has conducted annual opium poppy surveys in Afghanistan since 1994. The most recent one was issued in October 2002. The surveys collect information on the location and extent of opium cultivation, production and prices. Since Afghanistan was the world’s largest source of illicit opium in 2002, the surveys are crucial in defining a problem which is manifestly global and international in dimension. The present study goes beyond reporting on a single year’s production and value. It examines Afghanistan’s opium economy in order to understand its dynamics, the reasons for its success, its beneficiaries and victims, and the problems it has caused domestically and abroad. The purpose of the study is to assist the country and the international community in fulfilling the objectives of the United Nations General Assembly Special Session on Drugs (1998), to eliminate illicit drugs. This report is not about Afghanistan’s dependence on illegal drug activity. On the contrary, it shows that the opium economy is limited to a few provinces that have defied the opium ban issued by President Karzai on 17 January 2002. The decree asserted that the opium problem was a matter of national security, and called for international support to solve it. The findings of this report render that call imperative. PART 1: DIMENSIONS Chapter 1. Afghanistan’s illicit opium economy: size and shape Production and Trafficking (cid:1) Afghanistan’s opium production (3400 tons in 2002) increased more than 15-fold since 1979; (cid:1) From 1996 to 1999, under the Taliban, production doubled and peaked at over 4600 tons; (cid:1) In 2000 the Taliban banned opium cultivation, but not trade; (cid:1) In 2002 opium was cultivated by several ethnic groups in the south (Helmand), east (Nangarhar) and north (Badakshan); (cid:1) Cross-border ethnic and tribal links facilitate trafficking by several ethnic groups; (cid:1) Over three-quarters of the heroin sold in Europe, and virtually all of it in Russia, originates in Afghanistan. Afghanistan’s opium production increased more than 15-fold since 1979, the year of the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan. By 2000 the country was the source of 70% of all the illicit opium produced in the world. Following a decline in 2001, production resumed at high levels in 2002, again making Afghanistan the world’s largest producer (followed by Myanmar and Laos), accounting for almost three-quarters of global opium production. 5 The opium economy in Afghanistan: An international problem Opium production in Afghanistan in metric tons (1980-2002) 5,000 4,565 s n o 4,000 c t ri 3,416 3,422 et 3,276 m n in 3,000 2,2482,8042,693 o 2,335 cti u d 2,000 ro 1,570 p m u pi 1,000 O 450 200 185 0 'Soviet' period 'Warlord' period 'Taliban' period Figure 1 Source: UNDCP, Global Illicit Drug Trends 2001 and 2002 and Afghanistan Opium Survey 2002. Traditionally the bulk of opium poppy cultivation was in the south (Helmand province, 52% of total cultivation in 2000) and the east (Nangarhar, 24%). In 2001, the Taliban ban pushed the output to the north (Badakshan, 83%, though of a far lower total). In 2002 the largest areas under cultivation were again Helmand (40%), Nangarhar (27%) and Badakshan (11%), followed by Uruzgan (7%), Kandahar (5%), and Ghor (3%). Thus 93% of the area under poppy cultivation is restricted to six provinces that have not yet complied with the ban issued by the Government in January 2002. Distribution of Afghan opium poppy cultivation in 2002 (N = 74,045 ha) Other northern Western provinces provinces 0.1% Badakshan2.0% Nangarhar 11.1% (east) Other eastern Other 26.7% provinces southern/central 3.0% provinces 4.4% Kandahar 5.4% Uruzgan (south) 6.9% Helmand (south) 40.4% Figure 2 Source: UNDCP/ICMP, Afghanistan Opium Poppy Survey 2002. 6