THE NECESSITY FOR NUCLEAR POWER THE NECESSITY FOR NUCLEAR POWER Geoffrey Greenhalgh Graham & Trotman Limited First published in 1980 by Graham and Trotman Limited Bond Street House 14 Clifford Street London WIX lRD © Graham and Trotman Limited, 1980 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1980 ISBN-13: 978-0-8601()"249-6 e-ISBN-13: 978-94-011-7350-6 DOl: 10.1007/978-94-011-7350-6 This publication is protected by international copyright law. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photo-copying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publishers. Typeset in Great Britain by Supreme Litho Typesetting, liford, Essex. Contents List of Figures Vll List of Tables IX Foreword Xlll Chapter 1 The Need for More Energy 1 Chapter 2 Energy Demand 25 Chapter 3 The Availability of Oil 41 Chapter 4 Coal 52 Chapter 5 Nuclear Power 64 Chapter 6 How Much Nuclear Plant in Operation by the year 2000? 98 Chapter 7 Nuclear Power Utilisation 119 Chapter 8 Nuclear Process Heat 126 Chapter 9 The Comparative Hazards of Energy Production and Use 143 Chapter 10 The Hazards of Fuel Production 148 Chapter 11 The Hazards of Power Generation 157 Chapter 12 Carbon Dioxide and the Greenhouse Effect 171 Chapter 13 Hazard of Major Accidents 174 Chapter 14 Three Mile Island 189 Chapter 15 Waste Disposal 195 Chapter 16 Nuclear Safeguards and Non-proliferation 210 Chapter 17 Opposition to Nuclear Power 223 Chapter 18 Conclusion 237 Glossary 241 List of Figures 1. Recent changes in growth/energy ratios for a number of countries 6 2. US gross energy consumption 9 3. US commercial energy use 10 4. US residential energy use 10 5. Distribution of per t:apita energy t:onsumption in 1971 11 6. Urban population estimates and projections 14 7. World population growth 16 8. Changes between more and less developed population shares 18 9. Arable land per capita; survey, 1965 and estimate, 1985 19 10. Energy subsidies for various food crops 20 11. Growth and demographic transitions of gross world product versus world population and per capita product 23 12. Global energy scenarios 26 13. Future annual world energy requirements 27 14. World primary energy demand projections 29 15. Primary energy demand according to several projections 30 16. The Conservation Commission's alternative demand projection 31 17. Regional economic growth rates 32 18. Petroleum prices 44 19. Oil supply projections 47 20. Oil demand and availability 48 21. Natural gas supply and demand 50 22. The market share for primary energy consumption in the US 53 23. World production of coal 55 24. Fuel used for energy generation in the OECD 56 25. Development of the export/production ratio (%) of main coal producing countries 61 26. Development of coal production and coal export 63 27. Rate of ordering nuclear power stations 76 28. World electrical generating capacity 100 29. Comparison of worldwide total electric with hydroelectric generating capacity 101 30. Time taken to bring new power plants into operation 106 31. Annual ordering rate for nuclear reactors 111 32. Penetration of the electric power market by nuclear power 114 33. US total energy usage, 1972 120 34. Direct use of gas and oil in the US, 1972 121 35. Comparison of the electric and gasoline powered car 122 36. US total energy economy, year 2000 124 37. US installed generating capacity 125 38. Temperature ranges for process heat applications 126 39. C:omparison of tot:'!1 c.ost of heat rlelivererl for rlifferent maximum heat IO:'!ds 128 viii The necessity fOT nuclear power 40 Schematic diagram of transmission system 130 41. Cost saving for transmission of heat from the Barsebeck power station compared with the extension of hot water stations 131 42. Reactor providing heat where required 132 43. Applications for nuclear process heat 134 44. Schemes of coal gasification processes 135 45. Process flow diagram for nuclear steelmaking system 137 46. Total pipeline transportation cost versus energy flow rate 142 47. Materials flow for coal mining and preparation in Canada 144 48. Average radiation doses from various sources 161 49. Extrapolation of known radiation effects down to small doses 164 50. Comparison of pollutant standards, background levels, man~made exposures and health effects 166 51. Annual change in C02 concentration in the atmosphere 171 52. Frequency of man-caused events with fatalities greater than N 182 53. Frequency of natural events with fatalities greater than N compared to the 100 US nuclear reactor case 183 54. Total deaths per megawatt-year by energy system 186 55. Total man-days lost per megawatt-year net output over lifetime of system 187 56. Heat output from a harvest block 199 57. Perspective drawing of plant for intermediate storage and encapsulation 200 58. Handling of waste canisters in final repository 201 59. Radioactive elements in high-level waste 20.1) 60. Relative ingestion radiotoxicity of components of highly active waste and naturally occurring radioactive pitchblende 206 List of Tables 1. GNP and the physical quality of life 3 2. Developing countries: growth of gross domestic product, 1970-90 4 3. Industrial countries: growth of gross domestic product, 1960-90 5 4. Selected social indicators for groups of nations, 1970 12 5. Levels of absolute poverty under alternative scenarios, year 2000 13 6. Contraceptive use and crude birth rates in selected developing countries, 1977 17 7. Energy budget per capita for a steady-state civilisation 21 8. Growth and levels of gross domestic product under alternative scenarios 22 9. Alternative assumptions for gross world product (GWP) growth rates in Cavendish report, % 28 10. Alternative scenario demand projections 29 11. Predicted world energy demand (excluding communist countries), UNICE 33 12. Energy/GDP elasticities 34 13. Energy supply in the year 2000 (MTDE) 35 14. Summary of energy supply in the year 2000 36 15. Potential world primary energy production (exajoules) 37 16. Energy sources as a percentage of total in 2000 and increase over 1972 37 17. UNICE figures as a percentage of total in 2000 and increase over 1974 37 18. Interfutures and IIASA figures as a percentage of total in 2000 and increase over 1972 38 19. Supply pattern for combined DECD indigenous supply and import figures 38 20. Summary of source energy as a percentage of total in 2000 39 21. Source energy in 2000 as an increase over base figures 39 22. Energy balances 40 23. Development of the pattern of primary energy consumption 41 24. Dependence on imported energy 42 25. Energy balance (MTDE), 1975 43 26. World Energy Conference figures for supply and demand for 1972,2000 and 2020 49 27. Estimated future production by the main coal-producing countries for 1985, 2000 and 2020 53 28. DE CD energy demand and supply and world oil trade. Reference case: alternative nuclear sub-cases (MTDE) 54 29. Coal: Present and future patterns of use within the DE CD 55 x The necessity for nuclear power 30. Data of production and export of the main coal producing countries (MTOE) 62 31. Nuclear power. State of programmes in various countries. Situation at 1 January 1979 65 3'2. Nuclear power in operation. Situation at 1 January 1979 66 33. Nuclear power in operation, under construction or ordered. Si tuation at 1 January 1979 67 34. Contribution of nuclear energy to the total production of electric power 68 35. Contributions of the different reactor types in nuclear power ordered. Situation at 1 January 1979. 69 36. Orders received by the principal manufacturers. Situation at 1 January 1979 70 37. Costs of a PWR nuclear power station 72 38. Balance-of-plant equipment 73 39. Energy balance (MTOE), 1975 78 40. Energy imports as a % of merchandise export earnings in 1976 78 41. Share of nuclear power in total electricity (%) 79 42. Korea: Energy consumption structure (1,000 MTCE) 81 43. USSR nuclear power stations 92 44. Nuclear power stations for CMEA countries except USSR 93 45. Nuclear capacity in year 2000 (GW(e)) 99 46. Estimated potential world electrical demand (exajoules electrical output) 101 47. Projected world nuclear power installation (GW(e)) 103 48. Estimates of the development of installed electrical and nuclear capacity by main country groups (1000 MW(e)) 103 49. Estimates of total world electric and nuclear energy consumption (TWh) 104 50. Nuclear capacity (GW) 105 51. Percentage change in GNP 112 52. Energy consumption of primary sources (MTOE). (Combustible solids and liquids, natural gas, hydro/geo/nuclear power.) 112 53. Electricity production of OECD (GWh) 113 54. Estimated environmental damages from different pollution sources in the model city 129 55. Selected oil spills exceeding 2,000 tons in marine waters, OECD countries, 1967-1979 146 56. Average injury rates 1964-1969 for coal and uranium mines 148 57. Comparative data on accidents occurring in various extraction processes from 1965 to 1969 149 58. Accidental fatalities per million workers per year 151 59. Injuries due to transport of fuel for a 1,000 MW plant 153 60. Expected numbers of annual injuries and deaths due to occupational accidents per. 1,000 MW(e) plant for 1980 fuel cycles 154 61. Estimated number of deaths due to accidents per GWy of the electrical energy sent out 155 62. Occupational accidental deaths from 1 year operation of a 1,000 MW electrical power plant and associated fuel cycle services 156 63. Quantities of waste products produced from fossil fuels (tons) 157 List of Tables xi 64. Annual releases of chemical pollutants from 1,000 MW(e) fossil- fuelled power stations 159 65. Metals in fuel p.g/g (ppm) 159 66. Comparative dose commitments for coal-fired and nuclear 100 (MW(e)) generating plant from airborne releases 162 67. Effluents from 1,000 MW(e) electric power stations 163 68. Health effects associated with sulphur oxide emissions 166 69. Estimates of the costs in the USA of damage caused by discharges of fossil fuel pollutants in 1968 167 70. Occupational injuries per year associated with operation of 1,000 MW(e) power plant (values are lowest and highest estimates from original references) 168 71. Premature deaths per year associated with operation of a 1,000 MW(e) power plant (values are lowest and highest estimates from original references) 168 72. Deaths and disabilities due to a 1,000 MW(e) power plant at 75% load 169 73. Releases into the atmosphere 1975 (1,000 tons) 169 74. Catastrophic dam failures 174 75. Chlorine accidents 175 76. Approximate values of acute illness and latent effects for 100 reactors 180 77. Total deaths per 1,000 MW years of net electrical output 185 78. Dates of first atomic bombs and reactors 211 Foreword Energy is no longer a purely technical and commercial question; it has become a political issue affecting the welfare of all mankind with far-reaching implications for the preservation of world peace. It is therefore vitally important for all of us that the right energy decisions be taken without delay and that the important contri bution which nuclear energy can make toward the solution of the world energy problem should not be overlooked or, even worse, discarded. It is now recognized that the only significant choices we have, until at least the end of this century, for the production of electric power are coal and nuclear energy and at some places hydropower. Of course, we have to use all other alternative energy sources available and capable of development, but one should realize that by the end of the century, those sources can only make a marginal contribution. The shrinking world reserves and rising costs of petroleum will eventually eliminate it as a source of energy, except for propulsion purposes and uses by the petro-chemical industry. Conservation measures in the more affluent countries and higher priority given to alternative energy technologies may only retard the growth of the demand for electricity. To the developing world also the problems facing the nuclear industry cannot be a question of indifference. The less nuclear power that the industrial countries generate, the more oil they will consume, the higher the price will go, and less oil will be available to the developing world. The same is true of coal. Moreover, a healthy nuclear industry in the industrial countries is an indispensable basis for the expansion of nuclear power in developing countries themselves. What is the reality behind the public's apprehensions about nuclear power? By the end of 1979, the world's installed capacity of nuclear power amounted to 120,000 MW, or six per cent of the world's generating capacity. By 1985, on the basis of plants now being built, the share of nuclear power will Increase to about 16 percent of the electricity annually pro duced. In 1985, it will represent the equivalent of more than