The Megacity Operational Challenges for Force 2025 and Beyond Army Chief of Staff’s Future Study Plan “It is not enough to understand, or to see clearly. The future will be shaped in the arena of human activity, by those willing to commit their minds and their bodies to the task.” - Robert F. Kennedy partners’ security interests are generally in developing The Army Chief of Staff’s future study plan, Unified countries. They are described as “ill-structured,” Quest, recently examined how military forces might featuring a mixture of formal, informal, and illicit conduct operations in or around a megacity and structures complicated by rapid growth. Megacities in approaches to achieve military success in urban coastal regions – in proximity to major ports and environments in 2030-2040. The Army Capabilities airfields – are of interest as they influence points of Integration Center (ARCIC) Future Warfare Division, in entry. conjunction with its counterparts from the U.S. Army Special Operations Command, the CSA’s Strategic Operational Access Studies Group, and the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence, hosted the Focused Environment Seminar Operating in densely populated areas has challenged (FES) 4-7 February 2014 to explore urban operations in military forces in every era as far back as the a megacity. Peloponnesian War. Military theorists from Sun Tzu to Clausewitz have warned of the dangers and unique Although 24 megacities exist today, continued rapid challenges of combat in and around urban urbanization will make them more prevalent in 2035. environments. A megacity environment exacerbates Megacities offer potential adversaries concealment those challenges exponentially. within congested populations and sanctuary in They have a high degree of congestion due to ungoverned districts. overpopulation; by 2030, 60 percent of the world’s Despite having similar components of urban terrain, the population is expected to live in urban areas. Many megacity has unique complexities and characteristics megacities feature slums and endemic homelessness, that will complicate understanding the strategic uncontrolled expansion/urban sprawl, and lack of environment and challenge regional access. This basic support structures (roads, garbage, sewage, requires the Army to develop future concepts, etc.). capabilities, capacity, and doctrine to achieve A Renewed Study operational success. Although each megacity is unique in culture, size, Characteristics architecture, transportation networks, trade, demographics, and geographic location, some A megacity is defined as a metropolis of more than 10 generalizations can be made at the tactical and million people. Although megacities have similar operational levels of war. overarching characteristics, each megacity is different and those that concern U.S. national and Military operations in a megacity are complex, dangerous, and intense. Urban terrain is the great Summary Findings equalizer when facing determined combatants. The Future land forces require the capability and capacity megacity magnifies the power of the defender and to gain situational understanding of complex diminishes the attacker’s advantages in firepower and megacity environments (physical, human and mobility. Thus, the United States and partner nations information). will face the possibility of larger entrapments. Access and freedom of movement in and around the Weapons standoff technologies are negated by the megacity will be a primary concern requiring new megacity multi-level structures. Therefore, the actual approaches to sustainment and other enablers. city fight remains a close fight – street by street, Strategic Landpower and Expeditionary Maneuver subsurface to sky scraper level, and often face to face. may offer solutions for achieving partner interests and strategic objectives. At the tactical-level, megacities may be thought of as Conclusion a complex terrain challenge. Within the megacity, The Army has many capabilities suitable for urban however, terrain has multi-level layers: subsurface, operations; however, megacities are fundamentally surface, elevated (buildings), and airspace. Additional different due to their size and complexity. In the factors within the megacity are cyber, communication, 2030-2040 operational environment, megacities and information realms. The multi-level terrain and offer a truly monumental challenge for military additional complexity factors pose unique challenges. operations aimed at securing vital national and Successfully operating in a megacity may require partner interests. Due to the complexity and size of forces to maneuver throughout multiple dimensions the megacity, the Soldier’s ability to operate in the simultaneously (surface, subsurface, air, space, cyber, megacity will require new capabilities, concepts, and information, etc.) to achieve required effects. doctrine for future operational success. Policy makers have few options when considering military responses in megacities. Existing concepts and capabilities, and risk to the force and mission will preclude future forces from achieving military objectives in support of vital national interests. Off- shore balancing and other indirect approaches will be limited by the scope and scale of these environments. Opportunities gained through the application of Strategic Landpower enabled by a modernized force may offer policy makers options that prevent conflict and, when necessary, rapidly respond to shape and win the Nation’s wars. At the operational level, the megacity is an obstacle that hinders access to entire regions and requires new approaches to sustaining operations. Basing in a megacity may be prohibitive due to several variables such as population congestion, enemy fires, security, disease outbreaks, or a persistent threat environment. Joint Force vulnerabilities include dependency on improved ports or intermediate staging bases and an inability to secure lines of communication through a megacity. At the national strategic level, the megacity is inextricably linked to global economic prosperity. The catastrophic implications of future conflict affecting specific megacities warrant significant attention across all tenets of national power. Ideally, the megacity will prove to be a source of continued progress globally and allow nations and people access to the freedoms and benefits currently available to developed states and highly structured population centers. However, the strategic risk associated with emerging megacities resides at the convergence with other well- documented trends, such as resource scarcity, wealth disparity, etc.