THE LITTLE BLUE Reasoning Book 50 POWERFUL PRINCIPLES FOR CLEAR AND EFFECTIVE THINKING Brandon Royal Published by Maven Publishing © 2010 by Brandon Royal All rights reserved. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical — including photocopying, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system — without permission in writing from the author or publisher. Reviewers, however, may quote brief passages in a review, and individuals wanting to reference material from this book for academic or non-commercial purposes may do so provided the book, with title and author’s name, is cited as a source. Published by: Maven Publishing 4520 Manilla Road Calgary, Alberta, Canada T2G 4B7 www.mavenpublishing.com Library and Archives Canada Cataloguing in Publication: Royal, Brandon The little blue reasoning book : 50 powerful principles of clear and effective thinking / by Brandon Royal. ISBN 978-1-897393-60-4 Library of Congress Control Number: 2009909356 In addition to the paperback edition, this book is available as an eBook and in the Adobe PDF file format. Technical Credits: Cover Design: George Foster, Fairfield, Iowa, USA Editing: Jonathan K. Cohen, Irvine, California, USA Illustrations: Ashley Vercekaites, Calgary, Canada This book’s cover text was set in Minion. The interior text was set in Scala and Scala Sans. Contents Preface 7 Introduction 9 Quiz 11 Chapter 1: Perception & Mindset Selective Perception 15 The Magic of Coincidence 16 The Four Classic Mindsets 19 Chapter 2: Creative Thinking Overview 27 Lateral Thinking 27 Divergent vs. Convergent Thinking 33 Mind Maps 38 Devil’s Advocate Technique 39 Idea Killers and Idea Growers 42 Brainstorming 49 Reframing Problems 54 Selling Creative Ideas 55 Chapter 3: Decision Making Overview 59 Pros-and-Cons Analysis 60 Matrixes 66 Decision-Event Trees 76 Probability Trees 81 Weighted Ranking 81 Utility Analysis 88 Sunk Costs 91 Hypothesis Testing 93 Prisoner’s Dilemma 98 Chapter 4: Analyzing Arguments Overview 105 The ABCs of Argument Structure 106 Evaluating Arguments 107 The Five Common Reasoning Flaws 114 Testing Critical Reasoning 127 Putting It All Together 145 Chapter 5: Mastering Logic Overview 149 “If … Then” Statements 150 “No-Some-Most-All” Statements 153 Mutual Inclusivity and Exclusively 155 Statements of Logical Equivalency 157 Testing Logic-based Reasoning 159 Appendix I – Summary of Reasoning Tips 1 to 50 171 Appendix II – Fallacious Reasoning 177 Appendix III – Avoiding Improper Inferences 188 Appendix IV – Analogies 190 Appendix V – The Ten Classic Trade-offs 196 Appendix VI – Critical Reading and Comprehension 205 Appendix VII – Tips for Taking Reading Tests 209 Answers and Explanations 225 Quiz – Answers 281 Selected Bibliography 283 Index 285 About the Author Preface Henry Humidor purchased a box of very rare, very expensive cigars and insured them, among other things, against fire. Within a month, having smoked his entire stockpile of cigars, he filed a claim against the insurance company. In his claim, Henry stated the cigars were lost “in a series of small fires.” The insurance company refused to pay, citing the obvious reason: he had consumed the cigars in the normal fashion. Henry sued and won! In delivering the ruling, the judge agreed that the claim was frivolous. He stated that the man nevertheless held a policy from the company in which it had warranted that the cigars were insurable and also guaranteed that it would insure against fire, without adequately defining what is considered to be an “unacceptable fire,” and was obligated to pay the claim. Rather than endure a lengthy and costly appeals process, the insurance company accepted the ruling and paid Henry $15,000 for the rare cigars he lost in the “fires.” But … After Henry cashed the check, the insurance company had him arrested on twenty-four counts of arson! With his own insurance claim and testimony from the previous case used against him, Henry Humidor was convicted of intentionally setting fire to his insured property and was sentenced to twenty-four months in jail and a $24,000 fine. Welcome to the wonderful world of reasoning. 7 Introduction Some 2,500 years ago, Socrates gave birth to the art and science of what we now call critical reasoning. Through a system of inquiry, known as the “Socratic method,” Socrates used a series of probing questions to obtain answers and then critique those answers. In this manner, he sought to reveal the key issues behind perplexing problems, to uncover the merit and flaws in commonly held ideas, and to expose those contradictory beliefs that often hide behind smooth-sounding but empty rhetoric. It is indeed humorous to reflect on Socrates’ observation that one cannot necessarily rely on the “sound” judgment of those individuals occupying positions of authority; they may be prone to think in a muddled, whimsical, or irrational manner. Critical reasoning, also referred to as critical thinking, may be defined broadly as “the process by which we evaluate information.” Often, the information we seek relates to problems or opportunities, and the process relates to how we arrive at our conclusions based upon the information we have. Individuals who possess critical thinking skills can identify problems or opportunities, gather relevant information, analyze information in a “proper” way, and come to reliable conclusions by themselves, without necessarily relying on others. Notwithstanding our ability to read, no other single skill is more important than our ability to reason. Yet, strangely, no required course dedicated to reasoning skills exists as a part of our regular school curriculum or as part of any on-the-job training program. This book provides a distillation of the most useful academic and real-life reasoning concepts. Teaching in our school systems — primary, secondary, and post-secondary — has traditionally been skewed toward instructing us “what to think” as opposed to “how to think.” An all-rounded education must balance the teaching of course content with new and better ways of understanding and interpreting the material at hand. 9