The Invisible Hands of Political Parties in Presidential Elections DOI: 10.1057/9781137318602 List of Previously Published Works Dowdle, Andrew, THE OBAMA PRESIDENCY: Change and Continuity (edited with Dirk van Raemdonck and Robert Maranto, 2011). Song Yang, SOCIAL NETWORK ANALYSIS (with Knoke David, 2nd edn, 2007). Stewart, Patrick A., DEBATABLE HUMOR: Laughing Matters on the 2008 Presidential Primary Campaign (2012). DOI: 10.1057/9781137318602 The Invisible Hands of Political Parties in Presidential Elections: Party Activists and Political Aggregation from 2004 to 2012 Andrew Dowdle, University of Arkansas Scott Limbocker, Vanderbilt University Song Yang, University of Arkansas Karen Sebold, University of Arkansas Patrick A. Stewart, University of Arkansas DOI: 10.1057/9781137318602 invisible hands of political parties in presidential elections Copyright © Andrew Dowdle, Scott Limbocker, Song Yang, Karen Sebold, and Patrick A. Stewart, 2013. Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2013 978-1-137-32279-1 All rights reserved. First published in 2013 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN® in the United States—a division of St. Martin’s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Where this book is distributed in the UK, Europe and the rest of the world, this is by Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN: 978–1–137–31860–2 PDF ISBN: 978–1–349–45857–8 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available from the Library of Congress. A catalogue record of the book is available from the British Library. First edition: 2013 www.palgrave.com/pivot doi: 10.1057/9781137318602 We would like to dedicate this book to the following people: Jennifer Dowdle, Corinna Rees, Heather Yang, Jennifer Stewart, David Sebold, Joshua Garr, Jeremy Willbern, and Bobby Sebold. Thank you for your patience with us during this long process. Without your support, none of this would have been possible. DOI: 10.1057/9781137318602 Contents List of Tables and Figures ix Acknowledgments xi 1 Why Contested Primaries May Not Be Divisive Primaries 1 The paradox of why “divided” presidential primaries do not always lead to disaster in November 3 “Divisive primaries” or simply contested ones? 7 Outline of subsequent chapters 13 2 Refining (and Redefining) the Party 16 Elements within political parties 19 Competing models of parties 22 Constructing a theoretical framework for an activist-based party 26 3 Multiple Donors and the Party as a Network 37 Why donors donate 39 Accounting for the various donor motives 43 How to measure donor movement 44 Donor patterns 45 4 Multiple Donor Networks Begin to Shed Light on the Nomination Process: The 2004 Democratic Nomination Process 53 vi DOI: 10.1057/9781137318602 Contents vii Conventional measures of partisan support in the 2003 Democratic preprimary 54 The 2003 Democratic multiple donor network 59 Network cross checking of general election return rates 62 Conclusions for 2004 64 5 A Tale of Two Networks: The 2008 Nomination Process 67 The 2007 Democratic preprimary contest 68 The 2007 Republican preprimary contest 72 The preprimary network of 2007 77 Network cross checking of general election return rates 83 Conclusions for 2008 84 6 A “Not-Romney” Explanation: The 2012 Republican Nomination Process 88 Conventional measures of partisan support in the 2011 Republican preprimary 90 The 2011 Republican multiple donor network 93 Network cross checking of general election return rates 96 Conclusions for 2012 97 7 Multiple Donors and Their Place in the Partisan Universe 99 Rallying the troops 103 Summary of findings 105 Future implications and questions 107 Appendix A: Geographic Patterns of Contributions to Presidential Campaigns—The Cases of the 2008 and 2012 Presidential Nominations 110 Appendix B: Fundamentals in Social Network Analysis— Theories and Methods 114 Theoretical assumptions of social network analysis 114 Social network fundamentals: actors and relations 115 DOI: 10.1057/9781137318602 viii Contents Appendix C: Matrices of Shared Donors during Preprimaries 124 Bibliography 129 Index 139 DOI: 10.1057/9781137318602 List of Tables and Figures Tables 1.1 Contested primaries and caucuses in open nominations, 1976–2012 4 4.1 Elite endorsements during the 2003 Democratic preprimary 56 4.2 G allup poll data during the 2003 Democratic preprimary 57 4.3 Total amount of donations in the 2003 preprimary to Democratic candidates 58 5.1 Elite endorsements during the 2007 Democratic preprimary 70 5.2 G allup poll data during the 2007 Democratic preprimary 71 5.3 Total amount of donations in the 2007 preprimary to Democratic candidates 72 5.4 Elite endorsements during the 2007 Republican preprimary 73 5.5 G allup poll data during the 2007 Republican preprimary 75 5.6 Total amount of donations in the 2007 Republican preprimary 76 6.1 Elite endorsements during the 2012 Republican preprimary 91 6.2 Gallup poll data during the 2012 Republican preprimary 92 6.3 Total amount of donations in the 2012 preprimary to Republican candidates 93 DOI: 10.1057/9781137318602 ix