Policy Studies 20 The Helsinki Agreement: A More Promising Basis for Peace in Aceh? Edward Aspinall East-West Center Washington EEaasstt--WWeesstt CCeenntteerr The East-West Center is an internationally recognized education and research organization established by the U.S. Congress in 1960 to strengthen understanding and relations between the United States and the countries of the Asia Pacific. Through its programs of cooperative study, training, seminars, and research, the Center works to promote a stable, peaceful and prosperous Asia Pacific community in which the United States is a leading and valued partner. Funding for the Center comes from the U.S. government, private foundations, individuals, cor- porations, and a number of Asia Pacific governments. EEaasstt--WWeesstt CCeenntteerr WWaasshhiinnggttoonn Established on September 1, 2001, the primary function of the East- West Center Washington is to further the East-West Center mission and the institutional objective of building a peaceful and prosperous Asia Pacific community through substantive programming activities focused on the theme of conflict reduction in the Asia Pacific region and promoting American understanding of and engagement in Asia Pacific affairs. The Helsinki Agreement: A More Promising Basis for Peace in Aceh? Policy Studies 20 ___________ The Helsinki Agreement: A More Promising Basis for Peace in Aceh? _____________________ Edward Aspinall Copyright © 2005 by the East-West Center Washington The Helsinki Agreement: A More Promising Basis for Peace in Aceh? by Edward Aspinall ISBN 978-1-932728-39-2 (online version) ISSN 1547-1330 (online version) Online at: www.eastwestcenterwashington.org/publications East-West Center Washington 1819 L Street, NW, Suite 200 Washington, D.C. 20036 Tel: (202) 293-3995 Fax: (202) 293-1402 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.eastwestcenterwashington.org The Policy Studiesseries contributes to the Center’s role as a forum for dis- cussion of key contemporary domestic and international political, eco- nomic, and strategic issues affecting Asia. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the Center. This publication is a product of the East-West Center Washington project on Managing Internal Conflicts in Asia. For details, see pages 91–102. The project and this publication are supported by a generous grant from the Carnegie Corporation of New York. A More Promising Basis for Peace in Aceh? iii Contents List of Acronyms v Executive Summary vii Introduction 1 Learning from the Past 3 Toward a Hurting Stalemate? 7 First Steps toward Reopening Negotiations 14 Opening of Negotiations: A New Approach 21 GAM’s Breakthrough Offer 25 Disunity on the Indonesian Side 31 Toward Deadlock: Local Parties and Elections 37 The Memorandum of Understanding 42 A Broader Foundation for Peace? 47 Potential Spoilers 1: The DPR 49 Potential Spoilers 2: The Military and Its Allies 52 iv Edward Aspinall Potential Spoilers 3: GAM and Its Long-Term Goals 56 The Dangers of Erosion 62 Conclusion 66 Endnotes 69 Bibliography 73 Appendix: Memorandum of Understanding 75 Background of the Aceh Conflict 85 Map of Aceh, Indonesia 89 Project Information: The Dynamics and Management of Internal Conflicts in Asia 91 • Project Purpose and Outline 93 • Project Participants List 99 Policy Studies: List of Reviewers 2004–05 103 Policy Studies: Previous Publications 104 List of Acronyms AMM Aceh Monitoring Mission ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations CMI Crisis Management Initiative COHA Cessation of Hostilities Agreement DPR Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat (People’s Representative Council; Indonesia’s national parliament) GAM Gerakan Aceh Merdeka (Free Aceh Movement) GoI Government of Indonesia HDC Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue (previously, the Henry Dunant Centre) MoU Memorandum of Understanding MP-GAM Majelis Pemerintahan-GAM (GAM Governing Council) PDI-P Partai Demokrasi Indonesia-Perjuangan (Indonesian Democracy Party-Struggle) SIRA Sentral Informasi Referendum Aceh (Aceh Referendum Information Center) TNI Tentara Nasional Indonesia (Indonesian National Military) UN United Nations vi Edward Aspinall