Praise for the Future of Water M A X “Steve Maxwell takes us straight into the realities of the water crisis that is now W spreading through all parts of the country, and indeed of the entire world.” E LL Imagine for a moment that a giant asteroid —From the foreword by Bruce Babbitt, is hurtling directly toward Earth and is former US Secretary of the Interior certain to destroy us in ten years. With an immediate and coordinated effort, however, “The Future of Water is sobering and exhilarating at the same time. It’s sobering t scientists can develop technology to redirect as Maxwell and Yates detail just how water touches so many aspects of modern h or explode the asteroid before impact. life, and how dire the situation might be if nothing changes. However, this book is Wouldn’t the people of the world quickly agree e also exhilarating in the fast-paced way it examines the future of water, from our to drop their differences and collectively find own kitchen sinks to massive dams in China.” a way for the human race to survive? Steve Maxwell has provided strate- F gic consulting and investment services —Bill Owens, former Governor of Colorado We are rushing headlong into a global water to the water industry for 20 years and u crisis of equally calamitous proportions. The has managed dozens of mergers and “Water is our greatest global challenge and local opportunity, and yet it seems dual threat of compromised water quality acquisitions in the industry. He is the invisible to many and inexhaustible to most. Maxwell connects the dots and drops t and water shortages amounts to one of the author of the annual Water Market to chart a more sustainable future for our blue planet and for your community u greatest challenges of our time. This impend- Review as well as hundreds of articles watershed. We need to wake up and smell the water, change our old policies and ing crisis may not have the sudden impact of on water resource and business r paradigms, and begin to manage water as one resource, integrating and innovat- the asteroid, but if a united effort to solve the issues. He holds advanced degrees ing from top to bottom, above and below.” e problems is not forthcoming, the ultimate in public policy and geology from effect will be just as dire. Harvard University and is a Phi Beta —Benjamin H. Grumbles, President, Clean Water America Alliance o Kappa graduate of Earlham College. Fortunately, it is not too late to prevent a water Mr. Maxwell is also an avid cyclist former EPA Assistant Administrator and f disaster. Find out what may be in store for us and recently became one of the few Arizona Environmental Director as author Steve Maxwell presents an incisive Americans to complete the legend- W look at how water could be used, transported, ary climb Mont Ventoux, in southern “This is the book the industry and the public it serves has been waiting for — and stored in and around our homes, in France, from all three directions in one a clear, concise, comprehensive, and authoritative look not just to the future, but to agriculture, and in industry. Maxwell’s day. He lives in Boulder, Colorado. the context from which that future is evolving. This is an important book that will a detailed take on the future describes how become a reference for water professionals, policy makers, and private citizens t the actions of individuals, water utilities, concerned about our water future, and what we can do to craft it.” e industries, and even entire countries can Scott Yates is a writer, consultant, positively alter the flow of water. An insider’s —Bill Bertera, former Executive Director, r and entrepreneur. After graduating view into the business side of water, Maxwell’s Water Environment Federation with a journalism degree from New specialty, sheds light for investors and others York University, he started his writing on the future availability, cost, and true career at SPY Magazine in New York value of this precious resource, in the US and City. He went on to work at newspapers throughout the world. and magazines in New York, Connect- icut, and Colorado, winning numerous regional and national awards. He lives in Denver with his wife, son, and dictionary collection. 1P-1.5M-20692-4/11-SB $39.99 USA $59.99 CAN 20692 Dust Cover.indd 1 3/14/2011 4:40:46 PM the Future of Water 20692 Future of Water.indb 1 6/22/2011 9:38:10 AM 20692 Future of Water.indb 2 6/22/2011 9:38:10 AM the Future of Water A STARTLING LOOK AHEAD by STEVE MAXWELL with SCOTT YATES Foreword by BruCE BABBiTT 20692 Future of Water.indb 3 6/22/2011 9:38:10 AM The Future of Water: A Startling Look Ahead Copyright © 2011 American Water Works Association All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmit- ted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information or retrieval system, except in the form of brief excerpts or quotations for review purposes, without the written permission of the publisher. The authors, contributors, editors, and publisher do not assume responsibility for the validity of the content or any consequences of its use. In no event will AWWA be liable for direct, indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of the use of information presented in this book. In particular, AWWA will not be responsible for any costs, including, but not limited to, those incurred as a result of lost revenue. In no event shall AWWA’s liability exceed the amount paid for the purchase of this book. Project Manager: Scott Millard Publications Manager: Gay Porter De Nileon Technical Editor: Martha Ripley Gray Production Editor: Cheryl Armstrong Cover Art: Maurizio Marotta Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Maxwell, Steve. The future of water: a startling look ahead/by Steve Maxwell; with Scott Yates; foreword by Bruce Babbitt. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-1-58321-809-9 1. Water resources development. 2. Sustainable development. 3. Climatic changes--Environmental aspects. I. Yates, Scott. II. American Water Works Asso- ciation. III. Title. HD1691.M38 2011 333.91--dc22 2011005552 Printed in the United States of America 6666 West Quincy Avenue Denver, CO 80235-3098 303.794.7711 • www.awwa.org 20692 Future of Water.indb 4 6/22/2011 9:38:11 AM To my children, Nick and Beck, with the hope that their generation will be more water-smart than preceding ones. 20692 Future of Water.indb 5 6/22/2011 9:38:11 AM 20692 Future of Water.indb 6 6/22/2011 9:38:11 AM Contents Foreword by Bruce Babbitt xi Prologue 1 1 Looking Back on the Future of Water 9 Looking Back to 1910....................................... 9 Looking Forward ......................................... 12 Four Major and Recurring Themes ........................... 14 2 The Future of Water Use Outside the Home 17 Lawns: The American Dream ............................... 17 Trends in Landscaping and Water Savings...................... 21 Changing Attitudes ....................................... 24 3 The Future of Water Use Inside the Home 29 The Tale of the Toilet...................................... 30 The TP Factor ........................................... 32 Recycling Trends ......................................... 33 Clothes Washing ......................................... 36 Bathing................................................. 38 Gray Water Systems ....................................... 41 Doing the Dishes ......................................... 42 Cooking and Drinking..................................... 44 Bottled Water............................................ 46 4 The Future of Agricultural Water Use 53 Abundance, Scarcity, and Cost............................... 53 The Water Cost of Raising Livestock ......................... 56 The Water Cost of Crops ................................... 65 The Case Against Cotton................................... 71 More on the Water Footprint................................ 74 Summing Up Water and Food............................... 76 vviiii 20692 Future of Water.indb 7 6/22/2011 9:38:11 AM 5 The Future of Industrial Water Use 81 Emerging Trends ......................................... 82 Where the Water Is........................................ 83 Reducing Consumption.................................... 85 Longer-Term Trends....................................... 88 Environmental Concerns ................................... 90 An Example from the Coal Industry .......................... 91 Gold Mining ............................................ 94 The Nexus of Energy and Water ............................. 95 6 Future Sources of Water 99 Freshwater from the Ocean ................................. 99 Innovations in Desalination................................ 105 Other New Sources of Water ............................... 108 Groundwater Management..................................110 Other Approaches.........................................115 7 The Future of Water Storage 119 China’s Vast Diversion Projects ............................. 120 Global Reach and Conflict................................. 123 The Decline of US Dams ................................. 126 Worldwide Trends ....................................... 131 8 The Future of Water Utilities 135 Large Utilities........................................... 136 Making Water Safe to Drink ............................... 139 Wastewater Treatment .................................... 143 Innovations in Wastewater Treatment .........................145 A Look at the Smaller Utilities.............................. 149 Water Utilities Around the World ............................153 9 The Future of the Water Business 157 The Current Water Industry ................................157 The Rush to Invest........................................159 Water Risk ............................................. 163 Water Rights ............................................165 Privatization and Outsourcing of Water....................... 172 viii 20692 Future of Water.indb 8 6/22/2011 9:38:11 AM 10 The Future Role of Water 181 Population ............................................. 185 Economic Growth ....................................... 187 Energy ................................................ 188 Climate Change..........................................191 General Demographic Trends............................... 192 The General Outlook..................................... 194 11 Looking Forward to the Future of Water 201 Solutions for Tomorrow ................................... 202 Back to Our Recurring Themes............................. 208 Concluding Thoughts .....................................214 Acknowledgments 217 Bibliography 219 Index 233 ix 20692 Future of Water.indb 9 6/22/2011 9:38:11 AM