S.P. Plunkett The Extreme Solar Storms of October to November 2003 S.P. Plunkett Space Science Division AN OVERVIEW OF SOLAR ACTIVITY AND SPACE WEATHER In recent decades, humans have come to rely on space technology for an ever-increasing variety of purposes, including human exploration of the solar system, scientific research, national defense, and com- mercial activities. The field of space weather seeks to understand and predict variability in the space envi- ronment.1 The Sun is the source of all space weather, and the origins of major space weather storms can be traced to explosive releases of magnetic energy from the solar atmosphere in the form of solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). A solar flare occurs when a sudden release of energy in an active region of the solar atmosphere leads to rapid heating of a local- ized region of the atmosphere, and rapid acceleration of charged particles to relativistic energies. A CME involves the expulsion of large amounts of ionized FIGURE 1 plasma and magnetic field from the Sun into inter- Sketch of the inner heliosphere, showing the spiral shape of the planetary space (Fig. 1). A typical CME involves the interplanetary magnetic field caused by solar rotation, and a ejection of about 1013 kg of plasma, at speeds from a CME driving a shock as it propagates outward from the Sun. few hundred km/s up to a few thousand km/s, into interplanetary space. A major scientific objective of their detectors, thus causing spacecraft to lose attitude contemporary research in solar-terrestrial physics is control. The impact of a CME on the Earth’s environ- to understand how and why these events occur on ment can lead, under the right circumstances, to severe the Sun, and how to predict their occurrence and worldwide disturbances of the terrestrial magnetic field their effects on humans in space and on technological known as geomagnetic storms. The resulting particle systems both in space and on the ground. acceleration and heating of the upper atmosphere can lead to increased drag on satellites in low Earth orbit, Impact of Space Weather causing their orbits to change unpredictably. The ionosphere is usually disturbed during a geomagnetic The potential impacts of space weather are numer- storm, leading to difficulties with both terrestrial and ous. Spacecraft and the instruments they carry can satellite-borne communications systems that either suffer adverse effects from direct particle bombard- transmit radio signals through the ionosphere or use it ment or electrostatic discharge, ranging from tempo- to “bounce” signals over large distances. For example, rary anomalies to complete failure of critical systems. Global Positioning System (GPS) operations are Humans living and working in space can receive affected by fluctuations in the total electron content radiation doses well in excess of recommended limits. (TEC) of the ionosphere along the path to the satel- Star trackers that are frequently used to orient space- lite. Spacecraft that use the Earth’s magnetic field for craft can lose their ability to lock on to patterns in the guidance can lose orientation during a geomagnetic background stars when high energy particles strike storm. At ground level, fluctuations in the magnetic featured research 2005 NRL Review 91 Report Documentation Page Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to a penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. 1. REPORT DATE 3. DATES COVERED 2005 2. REPORT TYPE 00-00-2005 to 00-00-2005 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER The Extreme Solar Storms of October to November 2003 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Naval Research Laboratory,Space Science Division,4555 Overlook Ave. REPORT NUMBER S.W,Washington,DC,20375 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S ACRONYM(S) 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S REPORT NUMBER(S) 12. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT Approved for public release; distribution unlimited 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT 15. SUBJECT TERMS 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF 18. NUMBER 19a. NAME OF ABSTRACT OF PAGES RESPONSIBLE PERSON a. REPORT b. ABSTRACT c. THIS PAGE Same as 8 unclassified unclassified unclassified Report (SAR) Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 field can induce significant currents (sometimes over orbit around the L1 Lagrange point, located approxi- 100 amps) to flow in long-distance pipelines and mately 1% of the distance along an imaginary line transmission lines for electrical power, leading to from the Earth to the Sun (Fig. 2). SOHO is a joint brownouts and blackouts and damage to expensive mission of the European Space Agency (ESA) and transformer equipment. The most famous example the National Aeronautics and Space Administration of this occurred in 1989, when a geomagnetic storm (NASA) and has been operating almost continuously led to a failure of the electrical grid across the north- since launch in December 1995. SOHO carries 12 sci- eastern United States and Canada. The intense particle entific instruments, including two in which NRL plays acceleration can also lead to beautiful auroral displays key roles. The first of these is the Large Angle Spectro- at much lower latitudes than the polar regions of the metric Coronagraph (LASCO), a suite of telescopes Earth where this phenomenon is usually visible. that observes the outer atmosphere of the Sun (the The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminis- solar corona) in visible light over a range of altitudes tration (NOAA) monitors and forecasts space weather from 2 R to 30 R from the center of the solar disk § § for civilian purposes in the United States. NOAA has (1 R = 6.96 × 105 km, the radius of the Sun). This § developed a set of space weather scales as a way to is accomplished by using an opaque occulting mask describe the environmental disturbances and potential assembly in front of the telescope objective to block impacts of geomagnetic storms, solar particle storms, direct solar light, thus allowing the faint corona to be and radio blackouts. The scales have numbered levels, observed. White-light coronagraphs, such as LASCO, ranging from 1 for the least severe events to 5 for the detect light that is Thomson-scattered off free electrons most severe events, and are analogous to the well- in the highly ionized corona. The principal investiga- known scales used in terrestrial meteorology to classify tor for LASCO is Dr. Russell Howard of the NRL hurricanes, tornadoes, and earthquakes. Solar Physics branch. The second NRL instrument on SOHO is the Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope OBSERVING THE SUN FROM SPACE: THE (EIT). EIT images the corona directly above the solar SOHO MISSION disk in four wavelengths in the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) region of the spectrum, corresponding to The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory emission lines from coronal ions with peak emissivity (SOHO)2 observes the Sun continuously from an at temperatures ranging from 5 × 104 K to 2 × 106 K. FIGURE 2 The SOHO spacecraft (right) and its halo orbit about the L1 point between the Earth and the Sun (left). The black box on the upper right of the spacecraft is the LASCO instrument. The EIT instrument is not visible in this view. 92 2005 NRL Review featured research LASCO and EIT share common resources on the were measured from LASCO images. The masses are SOHO spacecraft, and together they provide a com- in the top 5% and the kinetic energies are in the top prehensive view of activity in the corona. 1% of all CMEs observed by LASCO over almost 9 years of operation. HALLOWEEN FIREWORKS: THE EVENTS OF OCTOBER TO NOVEMBER 2003 OCTOBER 28 AND 29, 2003 SOLAR ERUPTIONS Solar activity waxes and wanes with a periodicity of approximately eleven years (Fig. 3). At the peak On October 28, AR 486 was located close to the of solar activity, known as solar maximum, about 5 sub-Earth point on the solar disk, at 8° east of central CMEs/day occur from all regions of the solar disk. At meridian longitude, and 16° south in latitude (Fig. solar minimum, the rate is only about 0.6 CMEs/day, 5). It had developed into the largest active region of mostly near the solar equator. The current solar cycle the current solar cycle, and had a highly complex peaked in late 2000, and solar activity has gener- appearance indicating a substantial amount of free ally been decreasing since about that time. In early energy in the magnetic field. At 11:10 UTC on that October 2003, however, solar observers working with day, AR 486 produced one of the largest flares of this data from the SOHO mission were surprised to see solar cycle, and the fourth largest flare ever recorded. evidence of unusually high levels of activity on the This flare was classified as X17 (peak X-ray flux of 1.7 far side of the Sun. The Sun rotates on its axis with a × 10–3 W/m2). The event also produced a category period of 27 days at the equator, and on October 18, R4 (severe) radio blackout on Earth. An extremely a large active region rotated into view just north of fast CME moving at an apparent speed of almost the equator, designated as NOAA active region (AR) 2,500 km/s was observed in LASCO imagery. Since 484. On October 22, AR 486 appeared on the east a coronagraph shows features projected onto a plane limb, about 15° south of the equator, and on October extending above the limb of the Sun at a right angle to 27, AR 488 emerged close to disk center and about the line of sight (the “plane of the sky”), this measured 10° north of the equator. From October 19 through speed is a lower limit to the true speed of the CME. November 4, these regions produced a combined total The mass of the CME was estimated to be in the range of 12 X-class flares, including two of the largest flares 1.4 to 2.1 × 1013 kg, yielding a kinetic energy in the ever observed, along with numerous smaller M-class range 4.2 to 6.4 × 1025 J. This is one of the most ener- and C-class flares (Fig. 4). Solar flares are classified getic CMEs observed by LASCO. The CME appeared according to their peak X-ray flux. The brightest (and as a bright ring surrounding the occulting disk that is least common) flares are X-class flares, with peak X-ray used to block out the Sun’s disk in the LASCO coro- flux above 10–4 W/m2. M-class flares have one-tenth nagraphs. Events like this are called “halo” CMEs, and of the flux in X-class flares, and C-class flares have they are indicative of material ejected along the line one-tenth of the flux in M-class flares. The X-flares in between the Sun and the Earth. A thin, sharp ring of this period were all accompanied by large, energetic emission was observed ahead of the CME, extending CMEs. The masses and kinetic energies of the CMEs all the way around the occulting disk. This is identi- FIGURE 3 The monthly-averaged number of sunspots visible on the surface of the Sun since 1900. The number of spots and the associated level of solar activity vary with a period of about 11 years. featured research 2005 NRL Review 93 FIGURE 4 Solar X-ray and energetic particle fluxes measured by instruments on the NOAA GOES spacecraft from October 18 to November 5, 2003. The top panel shows the X-ray flux in two wavelength bands (1 to 8 Å in black, 0.5 to 3 Å in blue). Flares are identified as large, transient increases in the X-ray flux, with flare classes indicated on the right. The bottom panel shows protons in seven energy bands from >1 MeV to >100 MeV (traces labeled I1 to I7), and α-particles from 150-250 MeV (labeled A5) and 300-500 MeV (labeled A6). (a) (b) FIGURE 5 X17 flare and CME on October 28, 2003. (a) Shows active regions that are visible as dark spots on the im- age of the Sun from the SOHO Mi- chelson Doppler Imager (MDI). (b) The EIT image of the corona shows a bright flare in AR 486. (c) LASCO C2 and (d) C3 images show a fast halo CME. The bright specks in the C3 image are caused by energetic particles striking the camera during the exposure. The location and size of the Sun are indicated by the white circle, and the filled circle surrounding the Sun is the portion of the image that is blocked by the coronagraph occulting mask. The lower left portion of the C3 image is blocked by the mechanical structure that supports the occulter. (c) (d) 94 2005 NRL Review featured research fied as a shock front created as the fast-moving CME Earth’s magnetosphere around 16:00 UTC on October plows into the ambient corona and solar wind ahead 30. A typical CME takes about three days to travel of it. When LASCO observers noted this event in the this distance, and the fastest on record took about 15 images arriving at the SOHO operations center, they hours in August 1972. immediately alerted the NOAA Space Environment Center that an event with potentially significant space Solar Eruption Impact weather consequences was headed towards Earth. On the following day, October 29, AR 486 pro- Geomagnetic activity associated with the impact duced another major eruption. An X10 flare (peak of these shocks and CMEs on the Earth’s magneto- X-ray flux 10–3 W/m2) occurred at 20:49 UTC, sphere reached extreme levels. The arrival of the shock resulting in a class R4 (severe) radio blackout at Earth. on October 29 triggered an abrupt perturbation of the Associated with this flare was another extremely fast Earth’s magnetic field known as a “sudden commence- Earth-directed halo CME, with a measured speed just ment.” This was followed by a category G5 (extreme) over 2,000 km/s, and a kinetic energy of 5.7 × 1025 J. geomagnetic storm that lasted for 27 hours and was the sixth most intense storm on record (since 1932). Particle Storm Reaches Earth Orbit Another G5 (extreme) geomagnetic storm resulted from the impact of the second shock and CME on Following the CME and flare eruptions on October 30. Figure 6 shows the estimated planetary October 28, an intense energetic particle event was K index (Kp) for the three-day interval from October observed in Earth orbit beginning around 11:50 UTC. 29 to October 31. This index is a quasi-logarithmic Strong enhancements of the flux of both >10 MeV measure of geomagnetic activity on a global scale, and >100 MeV protons were observed by the GOES based on local measurements from a number of sta- spacecraft (1 eV = 1.6 × 10–19 J). The particle storm tions around the world, and updated every three quickly reached a level of S3 (strong) on the NOAA hours. Values above Kp = 5, shown in red on the space weather scales, and at its peak reached a level of plot, indicate geomagnetic storm conditions. Values S4 (severe), making it one of the largest of the current of Kp = 9 correspond to extreme storm conditions. solar cycle, and the fourth largest particle storm since Bright, colorful displays of the aurora, normally only records began in 1976. An event of this magnitude is visible from near-polar latitudes, were observed and sufficient to cause passengers and crew on high-flying photographed as far south as Florida on the nights of aircraft to receive a radiation dose approximately October 29 and 30. equivalent to one chest X-ray. As can be seen in Fig. 4, the particle event began with a very rapid increase NOVEMBER 4, 2003 SOLAR ERUPTION in the flux of both protons and α-particles within a short period of time across a wide range of energies. By early November, AR 486 had rotated close to The particle flux reached a maximum early on October the west limb as viewed from Earth and was about 29, with the peak flux at lower energies occurring to disappear from view onto the far side of the Sun. several hours later than at the highest energies. The On November 4, AR 486 was located right on the flux then decayed slowly over the next several days, limb, at 89° west of central meridian longitude, and with a secondary enhancement late on October 29 fol- the visible disk was devoid of any significant active lowing the X10 flare and CME from the same active regions (Fig. 7). Just as solar observers were about to region. The particle storm from the October 29 event breathe a sigh of relief, and activity appeared ready to reached a level of S3 (strong). The time profile of this return to normal levels, AR 486 produced the largest combined particle event is typical of that expected if X-ray flare ever recorded, at 19:31 UTC on November the particles are accelerated by a shock wave driven by 4. The flare saturated the GOES X-ray detector, and a CME originating near central meridian longitude on later analysis yielded a peak X-ray flux at the X28 the solar disk. The shock from the event on October level (peak flux of 2.8 × 10–3 W/m2). Intense radio 28 was detected at the L1 point by the Advanced bursts across a broad range of frequencies were associ- Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft at 05:59 ated with the X28 flare. A category R5 (extreme) UTC on October 29, and it reached Earth at 06:13 radio blackout resulted at Earth shortly after the flare. UTC. The transit time for this CME from Sun to LASCO recorded an extremely fast CME, moving Earth was about 19 hours, making it one of the fastest outward at a speed of 2,657 km/s. The mass of this on record. The CME on October 29 also traveled to CME was about 1.5 × 1013 kg, yielding a kinetic Earth in about 19 hours, with the shock impacting the energy of 5.3 × 1025 J. Unlike the events of October featured research 2005 NRL Review 95 FIGURE 6 Geomagnetic Kp index from October 29 to October 31, 2003, showing severe storming in red. (a) (b) FIGURE 7 X28 flare and CME on November 4, 2003. (a) Shows that no large active regions are visible on the MDI image of the Sun. (b) Shows a flare visible on the limb in EIT. (c) LASCO C2 and (d) C3 show a large, fast CME with complex internal structure. The location and size of the Sun are indicated by the white circle, and the filled circle surrounding the Sun is the portion of the image that is blocked by the coronagraph occulting mask. The lower left portion of the C3 image (d) is blocked by the mechanical structure that supports the occulter. (c) (d) 96 2005 NRL Review featured research 28 and 29, in which the CMEs were observed almost on the ISS was powered down to protect it from pos- head-on, this CME was observed edge-on, at almost sible radiation damage. The Martian Radiation Envi- 90° to the direction of propagation. ronment Experiment (MARIE) on the Mars Odyssey The particle flux in Earth orbit was already mission had a high temperature alarm on October enhanced on November 4 due to an X8 flare and 28 and was powered off. This instrument was not associated CME on November 2 (Fig. 4). As the recovered. Contact with the Japanese Advanced Earth particle flux was decaying, an enhancement in >10 Observing Satellite II (ADEOS-2) was lost during a MeV protons due to the X28 flare and associated severe geomagnetic storm on October 24, caused by CME was observed by GOES beginning at 22:25 a CME associated with an X5 flare early on October UTC on November 4 (a much smaller enhancement 23. The ADEOS-2 payload included the $150 million was observed in >100 MeV protons). Although the NASA SeaWinds instrument, a microwave radar flare occurred on the west limb, and the CME was experiment designed to map ocean wind speeds and not directed towards Earth, the particles were able directions. Several other NASA spacecraft had to use to propagate to Earth because of the wide extent of backup systems for attitude control during the particle the CME-driven shock and because the magnetic storms, when star trackers were temporarily rendered field lines along which the particles are constrained unusable by the large number of particle hits. Other to travel form a spiral pattern connecting Earth to spacecraft switched into safe modes and turned off a solar longitude approximately 60° west of central instruments during the periods of increased activity. meridian (Fig. 1). The particle flux rose gradually, with Airlines and ground controllers experienced com- the >10 MeV proton flux peaking at 06:00 UTC on munications difficulties almost daily in late October November 5, and then decayed slowly throughout the and early November, with the most severe problems rest of that day. This time profile is typical of a particle occurring on polar routes between North America and event due to a CME-driven shock where the nose of Asia. At least one major airline rerouted polar flights the shock propagates well to the west of the observer, to a route with better satellite communications links. as was the case here. Because only the flank of the Another major concern for airlines during this period CME-driven shock propagated towards Earth, the was the potential impact of increased radiation levels shock was detected at L1 by the ACE spacecraft much on passengers and crew. On October 28, the Federal later, around 19:00 UTC on November 6. For the Aviation Administration (FAA) issued their first ever same reason, despite the record size of the flare, and advisory warning that flights traveling at latitudes the large, fast CME, the particle storm at Earth only greater than 35° were subject to excessive radiation reached S2 (moderate) levels, and geomagnetic activity doses. Both major U.S. airlines that operate over the reached only a G1 (minor) storm level. pole rerouted flights to nonpolar routes in response to this advisory notice, thus significantly increasing IMPACTS ON TECHNOLOGICAL SYSTEMS operating costs and time for these flights. Flights between the United States and Europe flew at lower Near-Earth and deep space satellites and space than normal altitudes during this period. The FAA’s operations, communications and navigation systems, Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS), which uses the airline industry, and electric utilities were adversely GPS for aircraft navigation, was seriously impacted impacted by the high levels of solar and geomagnetic during the severe storms on October 29 and 30, and activity during this period. Other systems were able resulted in commercial aircraft being unable to use the to modify their operations to mitigate potential WAAS for precision approaches. effects, and still others were able to continue normal Electric utilities in North America experienced operations based on real-time data and space weather minimal disruption, partly because of preventive mea- forecasts. The detailed solar imagery available from sures taken to counter the effects of induced currents the LASCO and EIT instruments was invaluable on the power grid based on space weather forecasts. to NOAA space weather forecasters in making the More significant impacts occurred in Europe, and a predictions that enabled operators to take appropriate power system failure occurred in Malmo, Sweden, on measures to protect their systems. October 30, resulting in a city-wide blackout. Numerous NASA missions were impacted by the October-November activity. The crew on the Interna- LESSONS LEARNED tional Space Station (ISS) was directed to relocate to a shielded location on the station on at least five separate The observations presented here would not have occasions to avoid radiation hazards. The robotic arm been possible in any previous solar cycle. We now featured research 2005 NRL Review 97 have available a fleet of spacecraft with advanced space weather. STEREO will also allow us to view instrumentation that allows us to observe an eruption Earth-directed CMEs edge-on for the first time, thus on the surface of the Sun, and track that eruption all revealing the detailed internal structure that is hidden the way from the Sun to the Earth. We also have the in a head-on view. Some of the keys to understanding tools to forecast with reasonable accuracy the potential the potential space weather impacts of a CME, such space weather impacts of an eruptive event. We can as the topology of the magnetic field, lie in knowing identify solar active regions that are likely to produce these details about the internal structure. The edge-on large flares and CMEs, and we know that these events view will also allow us to more accurately measure key are powered by the conversion of free energy stored parameters, such as the speed and mass of CMEs, that in magnetic fields on the Sun. However, we still do are difficult to determine from an end-on view. not know the details of the underlying mechanism In summary, the dramatic events of October that triggers these eruptive events, and we lack the and November 2003 demonstrate that our ability to ability to reliably predict when they will occur, so that observe and predict solar activity and its impact on accurately forecasting space weather more than a few technological systems in space and on the ground has days in advance is not possible. Future progress on this improved dramatically in recent years. We expect sig- issue will require close synergy between observations nificantly improved capabilities to be in place for the and theoretical modeling using advanced computing next solar cycle, when our society will be even more techniques. susceptible to the negative impacts of space weather. The NASA Solar-Terrestrial Relations Observatory NRL is leading the way in research efforts in this field. (STEREO) mission will be launched in 2006. This mission will consist of two nearly identical spacecraft ACKNOWLEDGMENTS along the Earth’s orbit. One spacecraft will lead, the The author acknowledges assistance from staff in other will lag behind the Earth, and both will drift the NRL Solar Physics branch in preparing this article, apart at a rate of about 22° per year. NRL is leading particularly Angelos Vourlidas, Dennis Socker, and a consortium that will provide identical suites of Russell Howard. Assistance and advice from Daniel imaging instruments for both STEREO spacecraft, as Wilkinson and Bill Murtagh at the NOAA SEC are well as theoretical modeling and data analysis efforts. also appreciated. The graphics were prepared by Mary The Sun-Earth Connections Coronal and Heliospheric Helen Gregory at Praxis, Inc. in Alexandria, VA. This Investigation (SECCHI) will obtain unprecedented work was carried out under NASA DPR S-13813-G. stereoscopic views of the Sun and the heliosphere to a distance beyond the Earth’s orbit. This will allow References three-dimensional imaging of CMEs from their origin 1 P. Song, H.J. Singer, and G.L. Siscoe, eds., “Space Weather,” Geophysical Monograph 125, American Geophysical Union, at the Sun to their impact on Earth, and will sub- Washington, DC, 2001. stantially increase our understanding of the structure 2 B. Fleck, V. Domingo, and A.I. Poland, ed., “The SOHO and dynamics of CMEs and our ability to predict Mission,” Solar Physics 162 (1-2), (1995). ´ 98 2005 NRL Review featured research