The End of Intelligence The End of Intelligence Espionage and State Power in the Information Age David Tucker Stanford Security Studies An Imprint of Stanford University Press Stanford, California Stanford University Press Stanford, California © 2014 by the Board of Trustees of the Leland Stanford Junior University. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system without the prior written permission of Stanford University Press. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Tucker, David, author The end of intelligence : espionage and state power in the information age / David Tucker. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. isbn 978-0-8047-9042-0 (cloth : alk. paper) — isbn 978-0-8047-9265-3 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Intelligence service. 2. Espionage. 3. Information society— Political aspects. 4. Information technology—Political aspects. 5. Power (Social sciences). I. Title. jf1525.i6t83 2014 327.12—dc23 2014010112 isbn 978-0-8047-9269-1 (electronic) Printed in the United States of America on acid-free, archival-quality paper. Typeset at Stanford University Press in 10/14 Minion. To Ellen, Nathan, and Sarah for revealing the beauty in chance events Contents Introduction 1 1 Intelligence, Information, Power 5 2 Espionage 44 3 Counterintelligence and Covert Action 71 4 Intelligence and Warfare 99 5 Intelligence and Irregular Warfare 127 6 Principals and Agents 161 Conclusion 186 Appendices A: Surprise and the Importance of an Information Advantage 193 B: Information and the Power of Nonstate Actors 195 Notes 199 Selected Bibliography 225 Index 237 An executive who understands the problem of intelligence, who grasps the limitations and contributions of men of knowledge, is more likely to temper power with wisdom. —Harold L. Wilensky We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events. —Daniel Kahneman It is because chance plays so large a role in the outcome of our actions that a standard of goodness or badness beyond results has always recommended itself to men of superior virtue. —Harry V. Jaffa