WeWork and the future of the office China’s other Muslims Poverty in America: a special report Schrödinger’s cheetah SEPTEMBER28TH–OCTOBER4TH2019 Twitterdum and Twaddledee The reckoning Contents The EconomistSeptember28th2019 5 The world this week United States 8 Asummary of political 23 The Supreme Court and business news 24 Electronic monitoring Politics 26 Paying college athletes 26 Opinion polling Leaders 28 Primary health care 11 Twitterdum The promise and the 30 LexingtonLessons from perils of impeachment HarlanCounty 12 Twaddledee The reckoning The Americas 14 Quantum computers 31 Justin Trudeau’s troubles Supremeachievement 32 BelloThe war against corruption 14 Thefutureoftheoffice On the cover Workinprogress On September 24th, the day 16 Agriculture they met in New York, the Bureaucraticherbicide American president and the British prime minister both fell Letters Asia foul of their country’s 18 Oneconomists, 33 Japan’s risky tax hike institutions. Donald Trump: Colombia,Syria,Stanley 34 Prisons in the Philippines leader, page 12. A shift in Baldwin,theBible,China, America’s political landscape, 35 Sinophobia in Kazakhstan Tories page 20. Boris Johnson: leader, 35 Immigration to South page 11. Britain’s Supreme Korea Briefing Court rules, page 52. European 36 Malaysia’s youth vote viewsonBrexit,page75 20 Impeachment 38 BanyanProtests in Telephonejustice •WeWork and the future of Indonesia the officeDoes its implosion Specialreport:Poverty pose a systemic risk? page 59. China inAmerica White-collar workers face a two-tier office system: leader, PoorAmerica 39 Repressing Islam page 14. Corporate digs are Afterpage42 42 ChaguanPropaganda being reshaped, page 58. Office blunders in Hong Kong design that treats workers like drones: Bartleby, page 60. Thank goodness for stockmarkets: Schumpeter, page 64 •China’s other MuslimsThe Middle East & Africa repression of Islam is spreading 43 Better seeds for Africa from Xinjiang,page 39 44 Natty Nigerians •Poverty in America: a special 45 Ivory Coast wobbles reportThe secret is to focus on 45 Protests in Egypt children, says Idrees Kahloon, 46 America’s role in Syria afterpage 42 •Schrödinger’s cheetahA Free exchangeFinancial demonstration of quantum ructions are a reminder computing is a defining moment that post-crisis reforms for a field prone to hype: leader, will face severe tests, page 14. How a quantum page 70 computer can outperform a classical one,page 71 1 Contents continues overleaf 6 Contents The EconomistSeptember28th2019 Europe Finance & economics 47 Hope and fear in Ukraine 65 Europe’s economic swoon 48 French addresses 66 IEX exits listings 48 Austria’s election 67 Easing India’s tax burden 49 German climate policy 67 India’s sugar mountain 50 Turkey floods its heritage 68 The juicy market for lemons 50 Estonian booze 51 CharlemagneMacron’s 68 What started the trade war? longgame 69 America and Japan strike Britain adeal 52 The Supreme Court rules 70 FreeexchangeRepouhoh 53 The Jennifer Arcuri affair Science & technology 54 Labour’s conference 71 Quantum computing 55 BagehotLabour after Corbyn 72 Drilling Antarctic ice 73 Manipulative robots 73 Genes, medicine and law International 74 Lily seeds and monkeys 56 Climate policy at the UN 74 Aninterstellarvisitor 57 The state of the oceans Books & arts 75 Vive le Brexit! 76 Protest art in Hong Kong 77 How to live a good life Business 77 An ultra-Orthodox novel 58 Future of the office 78 Country music 59 Worries about WeWork 60 Bartleby The cold Economic & financial indicators comfort of hot-desking 80 Statisticson42economies 61 Taxing times for Vestager 61 Netflix v HBO Graphic detail 62 Uncorking Lafite Chinois 81 China’s“maritimeroad”looksdefensive 62 Chinese pharma grows up Obituary 64 Schumpeter Venture capital’s misadventures 82 Robert McClelland, surgeon for Kennedy and Oswald Subscription service For our full range of subscription offers, including digital only or print and digital combined, visit: Economist.com/offers Volume432 Number9162 PublishedsinceSeptember1843 You can also subscribe by mail, telephone or email: One-year print-only subscription (51 issues): Please totakepartin“aseverecontestbetween North America intelligence, which presses forward, The Economist Subscription Center, United States..........................................US $189 (plus tax) and an unworthy, timid ignorance P.O. 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Canada Post publications mail (Canadian distribution) sales agreement no. 40012331. Return undeliverable Canadian addresses to The Economist, PO Box 7258 STN A, Toronto, ON M5W 1X9. GST R123236267. Printed by Quad/Graphics, Hartford, WI. 53027 8 The world this week Politics The EconomistSeptember28th2019 abouttheunintendedconse- reasonablejustification”mps’ The authorities arrested hun- quencesoftryingtoimpeach abilitytoholdthegovernment dreds of people, hoping to MrTrump,NancyPelosi,the toaccount.MrJohnsonfaced prevent more unrest. DemocraticSpeaker,an- callstoresignfromotherparty nouncedthattheHousewould leaders.Hesaidthatonlya A week after a parliamentary startanimpeachmentinquiry. generalelectioncouldprovide election in Israel produced no awayoutoftheBrexitfog. clear winner, Binyamin Netan- TheIntergovernmentalPanel yahu, the prime minister, was onClimateChangereported Interiorministersfromfiveeu given the first shot at forming a thattheworld’soceansand countries,includingFrance, government. He has been frozenregionshavebeen GermanyandItaly,agreedtoa talking to Benny Gantz, his “takingtheheat”fromclimate temporaryarrangementfor main rival, about forming a Donald Trumpasked the change,andthatthe“conse- sharingoutmigrantsrescued national-unity government. Ukrainian president, Volody- quencesfornatureand intheMediterranean.The myr Zelensky, to “do us a humanityaresweepingand governmentsarepushingfora Britain, France and Germany favour” and investigate the severe”.Meanwhile,roadswere widerdealinvolvingmoreeu joined America in blaming business dealings of Joe closedontheItaliansideof countries,butthatwillbe Iran for attacks on Saudi oil Biden’s son in Ukraine, accord- MontBlancasexpertswarned muchhardertoachieve. facilities. Meanwhile, Iran ing to the rough transcript of a thatpartofaglaciercould lifted a detention order on a phone conversation they had collapse. British-flagged oil tanker held in July. The White House re- Braving the streets since July. But an ongoing leased the transcript after it Hundreds of Egyptians in investigation of “some of its emerged that Mr Trump’s Back to the drawing board Cairo and other cities protested violations” prevented the ship attempt to lean on a foreign Britain’sSupreme Court ruled against the government. They from leaving Iran. power to discredit the front- unanimously that Boris John- were motivated, in part, by runner among Democratic son, the prime minister, acted videos posted online by Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, a presidential candidates had unlawfully when he advised Muhammad Ali, a disgruntled former president of Tunisia, formed the basis of a the queen to prorogue Parlia- businessman and former actor, died. Ben Ali led Tunisia for 23 whistle-blower’s complaint to ment. The court concluded who accuses the government years, keeping the country the intelligence services. After that suspending Parliament of corruption. (Mr Ali lives in stable. But he was criticised for months of warning her party would have limited “without self-imposed exile in Spain.) his oppression and corruption.1 The EconomistSeptember28th2019 Theworldthisweek 9 2Big protests in 2011finally forthecollapseofadaminthe Kiribati, a thinly populated forced him from office. The Best friends forever stateofMinasGeraisinJanu- archipelago in the Pacific, event sparked similar upris- ary,whichkilledatleast248 became the second country in ings across the Arab world. people.Policeclaimtheem- a week to switch diplomatic ployeesknewthedamwould allegiance from Taiwanto Africa’s continental free trade burstbutconcealedthedanger. China. The move leaves Taiwan agreement caused trouble with formal diplomatic rela- between Nigeria and Benin tions with just 15 countries. just months after both coun- Migrants get the blame tries signed up to it. Nigeria Violent protests against Anti-government protests has partially closed its border perceived government racism continued in several districts with its small neighbour to and repression continued in of Hong Kong. Participants curb the smuggling of rice. the Indonesianpart of New threw petrol bombs and set Guinea. Police said that 32 fires. Police responded with An opposition politician in Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s people had been killed across tear gas and rubber bullets. Rwandawas stabbed to death socialist president, visited Papua, as the region is known, Some of the demonstrators in what his partysays is the Moscow for talks with most of them migrants from targeted businesses perceived latest in a series of attacks on Vladimir Putin. Russiais the other parts of Indonesia. Else- as sympathetic to the Chinese its members. biggest backer of Mr Maduro’s where in Indonesia, students government, covering their government, which has crip- protested against the watering premises with slogans. The World Health Organisation pled the economy. America down of anti-corruption laws accused health authorities in called for tougher sanctions on and proposed changes that China’spresident, Xi Jinping, Tanzania of withholding the Maduro regime and more would outlaw extramarital sex. opened a colossal new airport, information about suspected help for the people who have Beijing Daxing International, cases of Ebola. The whosaid it fled the country, expected to India’sgovernment said it about 45km south of the had received unofficial reports top 5m by the end of the year. would cut corporate tax rates capital. The project cost 80bn that one person who tested by ten percentage points in a yuan ($11bn) and took five years positive for the virus had died, In Brazilcharges were laid bid to boost business confi- to complete. It has four but that Tanzanian officials against employees of Vale, a dence and revive the economy. runways and is expected to had insisted that there were no mining company, and staff at a The country’s main stockmark- handle 45m passengers a year cases in the country. German safety-inspection firm et soared on the news. by 2021. 10 The world this week Business The EconomistSeptember28th2019 AdamNeumannquitaschief misdeeds and awaits trial in still raise at least $5bn, which rewarding themselves hefty executiveofWeWork,the Tokyo. Both he and Nissan would make it the world’s pay packages. Condor, a Ger- office-rentalstartupthathe neither admitted nor denied second-largestipothis year, man airline and subsidiary of helpedfound.Hehadbeen wrongdoing. after Uber. Thomas Cook, had better luck, blamedbyinvestorsforthe securing a bridging loan postponementofWeWork’s Once described as a “Tesla Royal Bank of Scotland backed by the German govern- ipo,whichwasshelvedaftera killer”, nioshed a quarter of its appointed Alison Rose as chief ment to keep it flying. sharpdropinitsexpected stockmarket value after report- executive, succeeding Ross value.MrNeumannisstaying ing a big quarterly loss and McEwan, who has held the job Facebookacquired ctrl-Labs, onaschairman,butisreport- drop in sales. The Chinese for six years. Ms Rose takes a startup that is developing a edlycedingcontrolofWeWork maker of electric vehicles has over at a challenging time for technology to enable people to bycurtailinghisshareholder been hurt by a recall related to rbs. The bank is still majority- manage computers with their votingpower. battery problems and the owned by the taxpayer, 11years brains. It has designed a wrist- phasing-out of Chinese sub- after a bail-out. The govern- band that captures signals sent sidies for green-energy cars. ment’s plan to return it to full from the brain to the hand and About to be stubbed out? private ownership by 2024 is transmits them to a computer. Juul replaced its chief exec- Kristalina Georgievawas less certain given rbs’s recent The head of Facebook’s virtual- utive, as concerns mount confirmed as the new manag- warning that Brexit could reality business said this al- about the health risks of ing director of the imf. Ms affect its profit. lows someone to share a digital e-cigarettes. The firm’s new Georgieva, a Bulgarian, is the photo “just by…intending to”. boss comes from Altria, a first person from a developing tobacco company with a 35% economy to hold the job. In a stake in Juul. Health officials speech she said the world must Alot of spin have identified hundreds of prepare for a downturn. Pelotonlaunched its ipoon cases of lung illness related to the nasdaqstockmarket, vaping. Walmart decided to The eu’s second-highest court pricing its shares at the higher stop selling e-cigarettes struck down the European end of expectations. It de- because of the “regulatory Commission’s finding in 2015 scribes itself as “an innovation complexity and uncertainty”. that Starbuckshad benefited company transforming the Massachusetts banned the sale from illegal tax breaks in the lives of people around the of all vaping products for four Netherlands. world through our ever-evolv- months. ing fitness platform”. Translat- Anheuser-Busch InBevpriced The collapse of Thomas Cook ed, that means selling internet- With the market for e-ciga- the shares being sold in the led to the largest ever peace- connected bikes for $2,245 and rettes facing a cloudy future, forthcoming ipoof its Asian time repatriation in Britain, as subscriptions to workout Philip Morris International business at the bottom end of the government chartered plans. A sensation with svelte and Altriaended their attempt an indicative range it had set. planes to return 150,000 hipster-types, its finances are a to merge, reportedly in part The brewer has already sold stranded tourists. The holiday bit flabby; it lost $196m in its because of the risk from some of the assets in the busi- firmrequested a state bail-out, latest financial year. Peloton Altria’s exposure to Juul. ness, but the scaled-down which was rejected amid re- will have to up the pace as it flotation in Hong Kong should ports that executives were still becomes a public company. German prosecutors charged Volkswagen’schief executive, Herbert Diess, and chairman, Hans Dieter Pötsch, with fail- ing to tell investors in the summer of 2015 that the car- maker was being investigated for cheating emissions tests. When news broke of the scan- dal in September that year vw’s share price plunged. Martin Winterkorn, the company’s ceoat the time, was also charged (he is also facing separate indictments of fraud). All three deny the charges. Nissanand Carlos Ghosn settled with America’s Securi- ties and Exchange Commis- sion for filing fraudulent financial forms relating to his retirement package. Mr Ghosn was sacked by the Japanese carmaker as chairman last November for various alleged Leaders Leaders 11 The promise and the perils of impeachment On September 24th, the day they met in New York, the American president and the British prime minister, two exponents of the new populism, both fell foul of their country’s institutions. First Donald Trump America almost didn’t have a president. The men who ar- conductlooksalotlikebriberyorextortion.Andtousetaxpayer rived at the constitutional convention in 1787 brought with funds and the might of the American state to pursue a political them a horror of monarchy. Absent a figure of George Washing- enemy would count as an abuse of power. ton’s stature, the young country might have adopted a parlia- The founders wanted impeachment to be a practical option, mentary system of government. Yet having created the office, the not just a theoretical one. Otherwise the president would be founders had to devise a way to remove presidents who abuse above the law, a monarch sitting on a throne for four or eight their positions—not all people are Washingtons. They defined years. Declining to impeach Mr Trump would set a precedent for the mechanism: an impeachment vote in the House, followed by future presidents: anything up to and including what the 45th a trial in the Senate. The question of what exactly a president president has done to date would be fair game. Republican parti- should be impeached for—“treason, bribery or other high crimes sans should consider to what depths a future Democratic presi- and misdemeanours”—was deliberately left to Congress. dent, thus emboldened, could stoop. Hence, though impeachment is a constitutional provision, it It would also signal to America’s allies and foes that snooping is also a political campaign. That campaign began in earnest this on Americans who are influential or might become so was a fine week when Nancy Pelosi directed her Democratic colleagues in way to curry favour with a president. There would be no need for the House to begin impeachment hearings into President Do- the dirt even to be true. Russia and China, are you listening? nald Trump. This will not necessarily lead to impeachment. In Such are the risks of ducking impeachment. Yet the risks on the past, though, impeachment hearings have generated a mo- the other side—of pressing forward—are great, too. Voters expect mentum of their own. The process is fraught with risks on both impeachment to be a last resort, not a trick by one party to re- sides. One thing seems certain: the process will further divide a move a president from the other, or a means for the losers of an country that is already set against itself. election to frustrate its result. House Democrats risk looking Ms Pelosi has taken such a momentous step because she be- self-indulgent as, rather than getting on with fixing infrastruc- lieves the president’s behaviour towards Ukraine’s government ture or health care, they obsess over the minutiae of internal crossed a line. If that seems an obscure reason to contemplate White House communications. The hearings may spin out of unseating a president, remember that impeach- control and make Democratic politicians seem ment proceedings against Richard Nixon had ineffectual and obsessive, as the stonewalling their origins in an office burglary and the ones testimony of a former Trump aide, Corey Lewan- against Bill Clinton began with an affair with an dowski, did last week. The hearings may also be intern. Mr Trump appears to have let Ukraine’s too confusing and rancorous for the public to government know that relations with America, follow. including the supply of aid, depended on it pur- Even if the House did decide to impeach Mr suing an investigation into the family of a politi- Trump, it is highly unlikely that he would be cal rival—that would be more serious than a found guilty by the two-thirds majority needed break-in or a fling. It would mean the president had subverted in the Senate, where Republicans hold 53 of 100 seats. Legally, Mr the national interest to pursue a political vendetta. Biden junior’s sleazy dealings in Ukraine have no bearing on The federal government often gives foreign powers promises whether Mr Trump abused his office. Politically, though, the two of aid in exchange for doing something that America wants them are linked because they give Republican senators minded to de- to do. The Ukraine case is different (see Briefing). America has an fend Mr Trump a handy set of talking points. interest in ensuring that Ukraine is able to defend itself against A failed impeachment that leaves Mr Trump in office might Russian aggression, which is why Congress came up with a pack- not be much of a deterrent to this president or to a future one. In age of $391m in military aid for its newly elected government. Mr fact it might even help Mr Trump, who could argue that he had Trump acted against the national interest in putting that aid on been found innocent after a partisan witch-hunt by loser-Demo- hold, while pressing Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, crats. Until this week that was the calculus of Ms Pelosi and to investigate Hunter Biden, who had business dealings in Uk- House Democrats from competitive districts. It is not clear that raine and is the son of the Democratic front-runner, Joe Biden. If public opinion has yet shifted enough to change the equation. that were not clear enough, Mr Trump also sent his personal law- Though it may be bravado, Mr Trump’s campaign team has al- yer to meet an adviser to Mr Zelensky and repeat the message. ways insisted that the more Democrats talk about impeachment In a country as corrupt and vulnerable as Ukraine the link be- the better it is for the president’s chances of re-election in 2020. tween American support and investigating the Bidens—you give us dirt on Joe and we’ll give you weapons and money—did not Cast the die need to be explicit to be understood. “I also want to ensure you Faced with such a daunting choice, Ms Pelosi had until now held that we will be very serious about the case and will work on the back. But Mr Trump appears to be becoming more brazen as re- investigation,” Mr Zelensky told Mr Trump in a call on July 25th. election draws near. The president’s behaviour needs investigat- You might have thought the Mueller investigation into his ing, with the extra authority that the impeachment process con- campaign’s dealings with Russia would have made Mr Trump fers. Better, therefore, to lean towards principle than pragma- wary of dallying with foreign governments. It seems not. His tism. But it is a risky and perilous path. 7 12 Leaders The EconomistSeptember28th2019 Twaddledee The reckoning Brexit has infected British politics from top to bottom. To cure the fever will require another vote No britishinstitutionisanylongerimmunetotheBrexit desperatetodoadeal,butstrikingonethatsatisfiesboth the eu virus. On September 24th the Supreme Court ruled that the and his hardline Brexiteers in Parliament will be a tall order—as queen herself had been led to act unlawfully when her prime it was for his predecessor, Theresa May. The court has shown that minister, Boris Johnson, advised her to suspend Parliament in it will not tolerate the kind of chicanery that his advisers seemed the run-up to Britain’s departure from the European Union (see to think might get him out of this hole. Britain section). Unanimous, the judges ruled that the govern- If Mr Johnson feels tormented by Brexit, he should think ment had not provided “any reason—let alone a good reason” for again. His lifelong aim of becoming Conservative leader had this intrusion on “the fundamentals of democracy”. The very long been blocked by fellow mps, who identified him as a light- next day mps returned to work triumphant. weight and a liar. Only their panicked belief that the party need- This was the worst week in Mr Johnson’s extraordinarily bad ed a leader who had backed Leave, and who could win voters two months in office. The unelected prime minister has lost ev- from the hardline Brexit Party, persuaded them to overlook the ery vote he has faced, squandered his majority and fired a score glaring flaws in his character. Brexit may well make Mr Johnson of mps from his Conservative Party. Following the court’s ruling, the shortest-serving prime minister. But it was also Brexit that he was dragged back from a unsummit in New York to face the made him any sort of prime minister. music in Westminster, where mps now have ample time to grill Something similar is true of Mr Corbyn. He, too, is frustrated him not only about his fraying Brexit plans but also on allega- that Brexit, which does not much interest him, is distracting tions of corruption during his stint as mayor of London. from his plans for transforming Britain. Labour’s internal split Mr Johnson is an unworthy occupant of 10 Downing Street. on the issue is more likely than anything else to bring him down. And yet the man who would replace him, Labour’s Jeremy Cor- But it is also Brexit that has catapulted him to the extraordinary byn, is hardly more appealing. At its conference this week Labour position of preparing to form a socialist government before the set out a platform of wildly far-left policies, including the expro- end of the year. Brexit has done for two Tory prime ministers and priation of a tenth of the equity of every large company, a big counting, and split the party system in such a way that Labour round of nationalisation, the seizure of private schools’ assets might yet take office on only a small share of the vote. Even with and a four-day working week. The extreme na- their humiliations, the Conservatives are ten ture of the programme was matched only by the points ahead in polls. Imagine how poorly Mr extreme viciousness of the infighting, and the Corbyn, the most unpopular opposition leader extreme incompetence with which plots were on record, would be faring in normal times. hatched and backs were stabbed. Voters will soon face an unappetising choice It may seem like an awful twist of fate that at between these two inadequate leaders. With the such a crucial time Britain has both the worst government some 40 votes short of a majority, prime minister and worst leader of the opposi- an election is coming. Polls show that many vot- tion in living memory. But it is no coincidence. ers (like quite a few mps) are defecting to the Both men, wholly inadequate to their roles, are in place only be- moderate Liberal Democrats—a sign that they reject the drift to cause Brexit has upended the normal rules of politics. This tur- the extremes in the two main parties. Yet under first-past-the- bulent week has shown more clearly than ever that, until Brit- post voting it would take an earthquake for the next prime min- ain’s relationship with the euis resolved, its broader politics will ister to be anyone other than Mr Johnson or Mr Corbyn. And as be dangerously dysfunctional. for the great matter of the day, neither man has yet been able to say precisely what type of Brexit, if any, he could bring about. He fought the law and the law won Given the polls, it is likely that neither will end up with a major- The Supreme Court’s welcome slapping down of Mr Johnson’s ity, leaving Parliament just as logjammed as today. unlawful suspension of Parliament was a model of neutrality. That is why the Brexit question is best answered by returning But the unrepentant prime minister told a febrile Parliament it to voters, via a second referendum. We have long argued that that the court had been wrong to intervene. mps are sabotaging they deserve a chance to say whether the final exit deal is prefer- Brexit, he thundered; by ruling out a no-deal Brexit they are sur- able to the one they have as eu members. A referendum would rendering to the Europeans. The man who claimed he wanted to resurrect bitter arguments and infuriate Leavers, who see it as a leave the eu to restore power to British institutions has again rematch of a contest they already won. But nearly four years will shown himself ready to vandalise them when it suits him. have passed between the original vote and a likely exit date. In There is no doubt, though, that the person most damaged by addition, what was promised has turned out starkly different the ruling is the prime minister himself. As well as the ignominy from the reality, especially if Britain proposes to leave without a of losing the case, the judgment brings more immediate pro- deal. It is thus more important than ever to find out if voters are blems. One is the prospect of mps digging into new claims that, really in favour of what is being done in their name. The public as mayor, he funnelled public money to companies owned by a supports the idea of a second vote and there is just about a major- close friend. (He says funds were dispensed to her with “utter ity for it in Parliament, which can agree on little else. Only when propriety”.) Another is that his promise to leave the euon Octo- people are given a clear choice on this question can the country ber 31st under any circumstances looks rasher than ever. He is begin to shake off the Brexit virus. 7 14 Leaders The EconomistSeptember28th2019 Quantum computers Supreme achievement A demonstration of quantum computing’s power is a defining moment for a field prone to hype “Natureisn’tclassical,dammit,andifyouwanttomakea someproblems—butonlysome—cleverprogrammersormath- simulation of nature you’d better make it quantum me- ematicians can create algorithms that exploit the machines’ chanical, and by golly, it’s a wonderful problem because it quantumcapabilities.Inthosespecialcases,quantumcomput- doesn’tlookeasy.”Withthosewords,in1981,RichardFeynman, ersofferhugegains,crunchingtasksthatwouldotherwisetake anAmericanphysicist,introducedtheideathat,byharnessing yearsormillenniadowntominutesorseconds. quantummechanics,itmightbepossibletobuildanewkindof Severalofthesealgorithmshavebeendeveloped.Theyoffera computer,capableoftacklingproblemsthatwouldcausearun- glimpse of where quantum computers might excel. In encryp- of-the-mill machine to choke. Feynman was right: it has not tion, for example, a quantum machine could quickly untangle beeneasy.Overthepastfourdecadesquantumcomputershave the complex maths that underlies much of the scrambling that slowly evolved from squiggles on theoreticians’ blackboards to protects information online. A world with powerful quantum small machines in university laboratories to research projects computers, in other words, is one in which much of today’s runbysomeoftheworld’sbiggestcompanies. cyber-securityunravels.Techfirmsandgovernmentsareinves- Now one of those machines, built by researchers at Google, tigating new foundations for encryption that are not known to hasatlastshownwhatallthefussisabout.Itap- be susceptible to quantum computers. But de- pearstohaveperformed,injustoverthreemin- ployingthemwillbetheworkofdecades. utes, a task that, the researchers estimate, the As Feynman pointed out, classical comput- world’smostpowerfulclassicalsupercomputer ersstruggletosimulatethequantum-mechani- would take around 10,000 years to complete. calprocessesthatunderpinphysicsandchem- Google’s machine is a special-purpose device istry. Quantum computers could do so with thatwasdesignedtosolveacontrivedproblem aplomb,ausefultrickfordevelopingeverything with few practical uses. But this display of so- frompharmaceuticalstopetrochemicals.Their called “quantum supremacy” is nonetheless a ability to solve optimisation problems could milestone(seeSciencesection). helpfinancialfirmsimprovetheirtradingalgorithms.Artificial- What might quantum computing actually be used for? That intelligenceresearchershopethatquantumcomputerscouldof- question is obscured by the piles of money and hyperbole that feraboosttotheiralgorithms,too. surround it. Along with 5g and ai, it is one of the technologies Fornow,though,allthatliesinthefuture.Google’smachine that presidents, of both countries and companies, love to cite. is best thought of as a Sputnik moment. By itself, Sputnik did ChinaandAmericahavepledgedtoinvestbillionsofdollarsinit. nothing but orbit Earth while beeping. But it proved a concept, There is excited talk of a race, and of the riches and power that and grabbed the world’s attention. Google’s accomplishment is awaitthefirsttoseizethe“HolyGrailofcomputing”. oneintheeyeforquantum-computingsceptics.Itstronglysug- Despitethebreathlessness,quantumcomputersarenotmag- geststhepromiseofquantumtechnologycanberealisedinprac- ical.Arichbodyoftheoreticalworkprovesthattheywillbepo- ticeaswellastheory.Anditwilldrawevenmoremoneyandat- tent, but limited. For all the talk of supremacy, quantum com- tention to a red-hot field. A great deal of engineering work putersarenotsuperiorineveryregardtotheirclassicalcousins. remainsbeforequantumcomputerscanbeusedforreal-world Indeedformanytaskstheywillofferlittleimprovement.Yetfor tasks.Butthatdayhassuddenlygotcloser.7 The future of the office Work in progress Beyond the fiasco at WeWork, white-collar workers are facing a two-tier office system “From ninetill five, I have to spend my time at work,” war- which required workers to be gathered in one place. Big offices bled Martha and the Muffins back in 1980. “My job is very grew from the need to process lots of paperwork, and for manag- boring, I’m an office clerk.” Many of the hundreds of millions of ers to instruct clerks on what to do. But now the internet, perso- people who trek into an office will feel as despondent at the pros- nal computing and handheld devices mean that transactions can pect as Martha did. The office needs a revamp (see Business sec- be dealt with on-screen and managers can instantly communi- tion). But the crisis at WeWork, a trendy office-rental firm whose cate with their workers, wherever they are. The need for staff to boss, Adam Neumann, stepped down this week after its attempt be in one place has been dramatically reduced. to float its shares turned into a debacle, shows that businesses A new model may take time to emerge—electric power was are still struggling to come up with a new format. first harnessed in the 1880s but it was not until the 1920s that fac- The large office, like the factory, is an invention of the past tories changed their layouts to make full use of it. The new model two centuries. The factory arose because of powered machinery, will have to balance three factors: the desire of many workers for 1 16 Leaders The EconomistSeptember28th2019 2a flexible schedule; the high cost for firms of maintaining office trend, in which this elite get better facilities. Those who need to space; and the countervailing desire to gather skilled workers in concentrate have quiet spaces. Better lighting and air condition- one place, in the hope that this enhances collaboration. ing aim to keep employees healthy. Apple’s new headquarters People who work at home or in a Starbucks have no need for a has parks, a meadow and a 1,000-person auditorium. The hope is stressful commute and can adjust their hours to suit their way of that when workers mingle or relax, that will spark ideas. life. In turn, that flexibility lets companies cut down on space. All this looks like a shift towards an airline-style world of Our analysis of 75 large listed services firms in America and Brit- work, with economy seating for the drones and business-class ain shows that annual rental costs per employee have dropped luxury for skilled workers, who enjoy some of the benefits once by 15% over the past 15 years, to $5,000. Many firms operate a hot- reserved for senior executives. But this is a hard trade-off to get desking system where workers find a new seat every day. At the right. WeWork offers a “premium economy” service in which a London offices of Deloitte, a consultancy, 12,500 people have ac- wider range of workers can get a few perks. But fears that its rent- cess to the building but only 5,500 desks are available. al income may be insufficient to offset its $47bn of lease liabil- But hot-desking can be alienating (see Bartleby). Every night, ities were one reason its ipowas delayed. workers must erase all trace of their existence, hiding away their The office is bound to change further. Some firms may ask if it possessions. When crammed into desks sited close together, makes sense to have offices in city centres. In an era of remote workers wear headphones to shut out noisy neighbours. Studies collaboration, software and documents sit in the cloud and of- suggests this leads to more emails and less face-to-face commu- fices could disperse to cheaper places. Mr Neumann’s business nication. So much for collaboration and camaraderie. plan is in tatters. But one of his insights is surely right: the office High-skilled workers can be repelled by these conditions. So of the mid-21st century will be as different from today’s as the the hot-desking drive has been accompanied by a countervailing high-tech factory is from the Victorian mill.7 Agriculture Bureaucratic herbicide Africa’s farmers need better seeds. Governments are getting in their way Acentury ago American crop scientists began experiment- obstruct the approval of seeds that have already been certified for ing with the plant known there as corn, and elsewhere as planting elsewhere. As a result, those on the market are always maize. They discovered that by crossing two inbred strains they several years behind the scientific cutting edge. It need not be so. could create seeds that would consistently grow better than ei- Zambia has liberalised its certification system, including by al- ther of the parent plants. It was the beginning of a seed revolu- lowing seed companies to inspect themselves. In the past two tion. By the 1940s American agricultural productivity was shoot- decades, maize productivity there has doubled. ing up; by the 1960s Asia had joined the race, thanks to improved Although Africa’s governments have mostly got out of the varieties of rice and wheat. seed-production business, governments often subsidise seeds In most of the world, the green revolution continues. Open an and former state monopolies still dominate the seed trade (see American seed catalogue today and you will see dozens of variet- Middle East & Africa section). They flood markets with seeds that ies of each plant, many of them labelled “new” to show that they are often of poor quality or unsuited to local conditions, crowd- have been released or improved somehow just in the past year. ing out more efficient private distributors with better goods. But on one continent, it never quite hap- It is not a bad idea for governments to subsi- pened. African farmers still tend to use open- Maize yield dise seeds to persuade farmers to try productive pollinated seeds held back from the previous Tonnes perhectare varieties for the first time. But that should be the 10 year’s crop or commercial hybrids that were de- North America limit. State resources would be better spent on veloped years ago. That’s one of the main rea- research, on tackling counterfeit seeds—a big 5 sons for the continent’s chronically low produc- problem in many countries—or on educating Africa tivity. The average field planted with 0 farmers about how to use improved seeds and maize—Africa’s most important crop, which 1961 70 80 90 2000 10 17 fertiliser. Ethiopia, though not a paragon of supplies 30% of people’s calories in some coun- market openness, has done that well. Its maize tries—yields a third as much as a Chinese maize fieldofthesame fieldsarenow almost twice as productive as the African average. size and just a fifth as much as an American one. The bravest governments could also relax the bans that al- The problem is not a paucity of science. Although crop re- most all have imposed on genetically modified crops. Their cau- search in Africa is not as well funded as it is in rich countries, tion is hardly unusual. gm crops are permitted in some other there is enough public and private investment to ensure a stream places, but only on the assumption that they would be fed to live- of new seeds to suit local soils and climates. Nor is the problem stock. In Africa they would be eaten by people. And many of the ideology. African governments have mostly ignored the argu- European countries that Africa exports to are hostile to gmcrops. ments, from some charities, that old-fashioned farming is best But genetic technology is often the quickest route to seeing off and that wicked, profit-seeking seed firms should be barred. the pests and diseases that afflict the continent more than other They know that modern seeds make farming more productive. parts of the world, and is the best way of producing seeds that The problem is that government policies prevent farmers will flourish in a changing climate. Who says that Africa should from getting good seeds. Many insist on lengthy field trials and always be the last to innovate?7