The world’s least successful president Putin threatens Belarus Pakistan: impoverished by its army How the mighty dollar falls JANUARY12TH–18TH2019 Red moon rising Will China dominate science? Contents The EconomistJanuary12th2019 3 The world this week Britain 8 Around-up of political 23 Labour’s balancing act andbusinessnews 24 Can “no deal” be stopped? 25 Anew plan for the NHS Leaders 26 Shinzo Abe’s visit 11 Chinese science 26 Wills: children v cats Red moon rising 27 Britain’s best police force 12 Politics in Washington How the shutdown ends 28 BagehotSpeaker of the House,headoftheasylum 12 Britain’s opposition Still having its cake Europe 13 Pakistan Praetorianpenury 29 Belarus and Russia 14 Peaksmartphone 30 Orthodox schism On the cover BadnewsforApple.Good 31 Pitching Fort Trump If China dominates science, newsforhumanity 31 Women and street signs should the world worry? 32 French inequality Leader,page 11. It has become Letters aleading scientific power. Can 32 Germany finds “GOd” 16 Onanimalrights, it go on to become a great one? 33 CharlemagneEast and genocide,working, Page69 westinEurope Foucault,Brexit,Santa •The world’s least successful Claus presidentAfter a catastrophic United States first term, Nicolás Maduro is Briefing 34 The shutdown, contd. digging in for a second, page 40 19 Pakistan 35 Health economics •Putin threatens Belarus Talesofself-harm 36 Swatting As Vladimir Putin tightens his 37 #MeToo’s foes bear-hug, the leader of Belarus 38 Chicago corruption fights back, page 29.Two new documentaries depict the 39 LexingtonJohn Kasich: optimistic beginning and conservativeorphan eventual fraying of Mr Putin’s long reign, page 74 The Americas 40 Nicolás Maduro’s mess •Pakistan: impoverished by its armyThe penury of Pakistan’s 41 Protecting scarlet macaws 208m citizens is a disgrace—and 42 BelloBrazil’s confused the army is to blame: leader, foreign policy page 13. Why Imran Khan will struggle to make their life better: Briefing, page 19 •How the mighty dollar falls Middle East & Africa The fate of the greenback will 43 Protests in Sudan shape financial markets in 2019, 44 Congo’s new president page 64. Against the dollar, other currencies are at their cheapest 44 Coups in Africa CharlemagneThe notion in 30 years: Graphic detail, 45 America and Iraq of an east-west split in page 81 the EU is simplistic and 46 Agritech in Israel defeatist, page 33 1 Contents continues overleaf 4 Contents The EconomistJanuary12th2019 Asia Finance & economics 47 Health care in Japan 63 Emerging markets 48 The king of Malaysia 64 ButtonwoodHow the mighty dollar falls 49 Quotas in India 49 Refugees in the outback 65 Studies in sexism 50 BanyanDemocracy in 66 Jim jumps from the World Bank Taiwan 66 Open banking in Europe China 67 Wall Street v exchanges 52 Unemployment woes 68 Free exchange Down 53 Detecting HIV towns 54 ChaguanA craze for 1,800-year-old fashion Science & technology 69 Can China become a scientific superpower? International 55 Missionaries from poor countries target the godless West Books & arts 74 Vladimir Putin on film 76 Who owns Kafka? 76 “Cat Person” returns Business 77 The Troubles 57 Peak smartphone 58 Consumer electronics 59 Bartleby Psychological safety at work Economic & financial indicators 60 PG&E feels the heat 80 Statisticson42economies 60 Carlos Ghosn in court Graphic detail 61 E-commerce in Indonesia 81 TheBigMacindex 62 SchumpeterOn the edge of Mordor Obituary 82 Herb Kelleher, co-founder of Southwest Airlines Subscriptionservice Forourfullrangeofsubscriptionoffers,including digitalonlyorprintanddigitalcombined,visit: Volume430 Number9125 Economist.com/offers PublishedsinceSeptember1843 totakepartin“aseverecontestbetween Youcanalsosubscribebypost,telephoneoremail: One-yearprint-onlysubscription(51issues): Please intelligence,whichpressesforward, andanunworthy,timidignorance Post: TheEconomistSubscription UK..........................................................................................£145 obstructingourprogress.” Services,POBox471,Haywards Heath,RH163GY,UK EditorialofficesinLondonandalso: PEFCcertified Amsterdam,Beijing,Berlin,Brussels,Cairo, Telephone: 08451200983or ThiscopyofTheEconomist Chicago,Johannesburg,Madrid,MexicoCity, 02075768448 isprintedonpapersourced Moscow,Mumbai,NewDelhi,NewYork,Paris, fromsustainablymanaged SanFrancisco,SãoPaulo,Seoul,Shanghai, Email: customerservices forestscertifiedbyPEFC Singapore,Tokyo,WashingtonDC @subscriptions.economist.com PEFC/16-33-582 www.pefc.org Registered as a newspaper. © 2019 The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Newspaper Limited. Published every week, except for a year-end double issue, by The Economist Newspaper Limited. The Economistis a registered trademark of The Economist Newspaper Limited. Printed by Wyndeham Peterborough Limited. 8 The world this week Politics The EconomistJanuary12th2019 TheSaudigovernmentstrucka thecountry.ChristianZerpa The king of Malaysia, Sultan blowforfeminism,decreeing calledMrMaduro’sregimea Muhammad V of Kelantan, thatwomenwhosehusbands “dictatorship”andsaidthe abdicated abruptly for undis- divorcethemmustbein- courthadbecome“anappen- closed reasons. The hereditary formedofthisfact.Courtswill dageoftheexecutivebranch”. monarchs who rule over nine notifythembytextmessage. Thiswasanabout-turnforMr of Malaysia’s 13 states will meet Zerpa,whoin2016wrotethe soon to pick one of their num- FélixTshisekedi,anopposition court’sopinionjustifyingthe ber to serve a five-year term as candidate,wasunexpectedly usurpationofthelegislature’s king. declaredthewinnerofapresi- powersbythegovernment. dentialelectionintheDemo- Jolovan Wham, a Singaporean craticRepublicofCongo. Brazil’snewpopulistgovern- activist, was found guilty of America’sfederalgovernment Pre-electionpollshadput mentsentthenationalguard organising a public assembly remainedshutdown,asDemo- anotheroppositionleader, tothestateofCearátocurban without a permit. He had cratsrefusedtofundDonald MartinFayulu,farahead. outbreakofviolence.Crimi- convened a seminar on civil Trump’swallontheMexican Furiousvotersspeculated nalshavestagedattacks, disobedience. border(whichhehadprevious- aboutapossiblestitch-up.Mr includingfire-bombings,on lysaidMexicowouldpayfor). Fayuluhadvowedtoinvesti- banks,busesandpetrol Inhisfirsttelevisedspeech gatecorruptionwithinthe stations. By any means necessary fromtheOvalOffice,the outgoingregimeofPresident In Britaina cross-party presidentsaidthatmigrants JosephKabila. amendment to the govern- tryingtocrosstheborder Ataste for travel ment’s finance bill designed to illegallyrepresenteda ProtestsspreadacrossSudan. North Korea’sdictator, Kim reduce the chances of crashing “humanitarianandsecurity Whatbeganasanisolatedrally Jong Un, paid a visit to Beijing out of theeuwithout a deal crisis”.Democratsofferedto againsthighbreadpriceshas where he met the Chinese passed by 303 to 296 votes, the reopenthegovernmentby becomeabroadmovement president, Xi Jinping. It was his first defeat on a budget mea- fundingeverythingbarthe againstthedictatorshipof fourth to Chinain ten months. sure since 1978. Although the DepartmentofHomeland Omaral-Bashir,whohasrun This latest trip has fuelled measure cannot stop a no-deal Security.MrTrumpwalkedout thecountrysince1989andis speculation that he may be Brexit, it would prevent the ofameetingwiththem. accusedofgenocideinDarfur. preparing for another summit government from varying Atleast40peoplehavebeen with Donald Trump. taxes if there were no deal by JohnBolton,MrTrump’s killedintheprotests. March 29th. And in a constitu- nationalsecurityadviser, Officials allowed a handful of tionally suspect move, the assuredalliesthatAmerican Theconstitutionalcourtin foreign reporters to visit three speaker of the House of Com- troopswouldnotbeleaving Madagascarconfirmedthe of the camps in the far western mons, John Bercow, permitted Syriaquickly,allbutcontra- electionofAndryRajoelinaas region of Xinjiangwhere an amendment requiring the dictingwhatMrTrumphad presidentafterhisopponent human-rights groups say government to outline a Plan B saidafewdaysearlier.Mr complainedofelectoralfraud. hundreds of thousands of within three days if, as expect- Boltonsaidthat,beforeany MrRajoelinatook55%ofthe Muslims, mostly ethnic ed, it loses a crucial vote on its withdrawal,IslamicStatehad voteinlastmonth’srun-off Uighurs, have been detained Brexit deal on January 15th. tobefullydefeatedandTurkey againstMarcRavalomanana. and pressed to be less pious. hadtopromisenottoattack The journalists heard residents Germany identified the alleged SyrianKurds.Turkey’spresi- singing “If you’re happy and hackerof the personal details dent,RecepTayyipErdogan, Only doing its job you know it, clap your hands” of 1,000 politicians, journalists rejectedthatidea,sayingthat Guatemala’sgovernment in English. Xinjiang’s governor and celebrities: not Russia, but hisplansforanoffensive ordered the shutdown of the said the facilities had been a 20-year-old who lives with againsttheKurdishforce, International Commission “extremely effective” in reduc- his parents. whichTurkeyregardsasa against Impunity in Guatemala ing extremism. terroristgroup,werealmost (cicig) and the expulsion of its complete. foreign workers within 24 China’s anti-graft agency is hours. The foreign minister investigating offences alleged- accused the un-backed body of ly committed by a former Family values exceeding its authority and vice-mayor of Beijing, Chen A Saudi teenager who had politicising its work. But the Gang. Mr Chen was responsible barricaded herself into a hotel constitutional court suspend- for urban planning in the room in Bangkok and live- ed the order, setting the stage build-up to the city’s Olympic tweeted her ordeal was de- for a confrontation. cicighas games in 2008. clared a legitimate refugee by been investigating corruption, the un. Rahaf Mohammed including allegations against Ethnic Rakhine militants al-Qunun said she wanted the family of the president, attacked police posts in Myan- asylum in Australia. She fears Jimmy Morales. mar’sRakhine state, exacer- Ukraine’sOrthodox church that her family will kill her if bating tensions in the region in broke away from the patriarch- she is returned to Saudi Only days before Nicolás Ma- which pogroms by the army ate of Moscow. This was seen Arabia, because she has re- duro was to be sworn in for a and Rakhines against as a blow to Vladimir Putin, nounced Islam. She also fears second term as president of Rohingyas, a Muslim minority, who prizes Russian primacy being forced into an unwanted Venezuela, a justice of the led to an exodus of 800,000 over its neighbours in matters marriage. country’s supreme court fled Rohingya refugees in 2017. spiritual as well as temporal. 1 The world this week Business The EconomistJanuary12th2019 9 CarlosGhosnappearedin Federal Reserve, that the cen- able clout. The two next-big- such a large commitment, publicforthefirsttimesince tral bank would take a “flex- gest shareholders each have which would have been the beingtakenintocustodyin ible” approach both to interest- stakes of around 5%. largest ever in a tech startup, mid-Novemberamidclaimsof rate rises and winding down amid a slump in technology wrongdoing,whichledtohis the assets it accrued through stocks. WeWork, meanwhile, dismissalasNissan’schair- quantitative easing, a soft- World’s biggest companies rebranded itself as the We By market capitalisation man.MrGhosnappearedata ening of the remarks he made Company. January 8th 2019, $trn courtinTokyowherehedenied after the Fed’s recent meeting. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 alltheallegations,which Amazon includea“breachoftrust”at Negotiators from America and Acombustible mix Nissanandunderstatinghis China wrapped up their first Microsoft The share price of Pacific Gas paytotheauthorities.He round of talks since a truce was Alphabet & Electric, California’s biggest describedtheclaimsas“mer- called in the two countries’ Apple energy provider, plunged amid itless”.Thecourtnevertheless trade dispute. The mood at the Berkshire speculation that it might de- Hathaway recommendedthatheremain talks was said to be positive, clare bankruptcy. The com- Source:Datastream from Refinitiv incustody. with China making more pany is being investigated in concessions to deal with Amer- Amazonbecametheworld’s relation to the outbreak of Fordannouncedaroot-and- ican complaints. Both sides are most valuable publicly listed wildfires in 2017-18, the deadli- branchrestructuringofits working towards beating a company when its market est in the state’s history. pg&e operationsinEurope,aloss- deadline of March 1st, after capitalisation at the close of will have to fork out billions of makingregionforthecarmak- which America threatens to trading ended up above Micro- dollars in damages if its power er.Thousandsofjobsare raise its tariffs significantly if soft’s. Microsoft had only just lines are found to have contrib- expectedtogo.JaguarLand the issues aren’t resolved. regained the crown from Ap- uted to the infernos, even if it Roverprepareditsworkersfor ple, which has seen its share observed strict safety rules. hugejoblossesinBritain. Bristol-Myers Squibbagreed price tumble over worries to buy Celgene, a specialist in about its growth prospects. Jim Yong Kim decided to step drugs that tackle cancer. The Amazon is now worth around down as president of the What a drag takeover, worth around $90bn, $800bn, much less than the World Bank, three years before Samsungsaid that it expects is one of the biggest ever in the $1trn valuation it hit (along the end of his second term. its operating profit for the last pharmaceuticals industry. with Apple) in the middle of Following the convention that three months of 2018 to be last year. America gets to select the head significantly lower than ex- The announcement that Jeff of the World Bank (and Euro- pected, its first decline in Bezosand his wife are to di- SoftBankwas reported to have peans get to choose the leader quarterly profit in two years. vorce raised questions about slashed the amount it was of the imf), Mr Kim was nomi- The South Korean electronics his stake in Amazon. Mr Bezos thinking of investing in nated for the job by Barack giant blamed weaker demand married MacKenzie in 1993, a WeWork, which provides Obama. Mr Kim’s appointment in China, a factor that lay be- year before he founded the shared-office space in 96 cities was the first to be challenged hind Apple’s recent warning e-commerce company. He around the world, from $16bn by candidates from developing about decreased revenues. holds a 16.3% stake in Amazon, to $2bn. The Japanese tech countries. Such opposition but if Mrs Bezos gets half of conglomerate is said to have may intensify with Donald The unemployment ratein that she could carry consider- been nervous about making Trump in the White House. the euro area dipped to 7.9% in November, the lowest it has been since October 2008. The youth unemployment rate stood at 16.9%, but remained much higher in Greece, Italy and Spain. American employers added 312,000 jobs to the payrolls in December, exceeding forecasts and capping a year in which the most jobswere created since 2015, thanks in part to tax cuts. As the labour market tightens, wages are rising as employers vie for workers. Average hourly earnings were up by 3.2% year on year. The good news on jobs sent stockmarkets soaring follow- ing a month of turbulence. Investors were also buoyed by assurances from Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Leaders Leaders 11 Red moon rising If China dominates science, should the world worry? Ahundred years ago a wave of student protests broke over ons and oppression. From better batteries and new treatments China’s great cities. Desperate to reverse a century of decline, for disease to fundamental discoveries about, say, dark matter, the leaders of the May Fourth Movement wanted to jettison Con- the world has much to gain from China’s efforts. fucianism and import the dynamism of the West. The creation of Moreover, it is unclear whether Mr Xi is right. If Chinese re- a modern China would come about, they argued, by recruiting search really is to lead the field, then science may end up chang- “Mr Science” and “Mr Democracy”. ing China in ways he is not expecting. Today the country that the May Fourth students helped shape Mr Xi talks of science and technology as a national project. is more than ever consumed by the pursuit of national greatness. However, in most scientific research, chauvinism is a handicap. China’s landing of a spacecraft on the far side of the Moon on Jan- Expertise, good ideas and creativity do not respect national fron- uary 3rd, a first for any country, was a mark of its soaring ambi- tiers. Research takes place in teams, which may involve dozens tion. But today’s leaders reject the idea that Mr Science belongs in of scientists. Published papers get you only so far: conferences the company of Mr Democracy. On the contrary, President Xi and face-to-face encounters are essential to grasp the subtleties Jinping is counting on being able to harness leading-edge re- of what everyone else is up to. There is competition, to be sure; search even as the Communist Party tightens its stranglehold on military and commercial research must remain secret. But pure politics. Amid the growing rivalry between China and America, science thrives on collaboration and exchange. many in the West fear that he will succeed. This gives Chinese scientists an incentive to observe interna- There is no doubting Mr Xi’s determination. Modern science tional rules—because that is what will win its researchers access depends on money, institutions and oodles of brainpower. Partly to the best conferences, laboratories and journals, and because because its government can marshal all three, China is hurtling unethical science diminishes China’s soft power. Mr He’s gene- up the rankings of scientific achievement, as our investigations editing may well be remembered not just for his ethical breach, show (see Science section). It has spent many billions of dollars but also for the furious condemnation he received from his Chi- on machines to detect dark matter and neutrinos, and on insti- nese colleagues and the threat of punishment from the authori- tutes galore that delve into everything from genomics and quan- ties. The satellite destruction in 2007 caused outrage in China. It tum communications to renewable energy and has not been repeated. advanced materials. An analysis of 17.2m papers The tantalising question is how this bears on in 2013-18, by Nikkei, a Japanese publisher, and Mr Democracy. Nothing says the best scientists Elsevier, a scientific publisher, found that more have to believe in political freedom. And yet came from China than from any other country critical thinking, scepticism, empiricism and in 23 of the 30 busiest fields, such as sodium-ion frequent contact with foreign colleagues threat- batteries and neuron-activation analysis. The en authoritarians, who survive by controlling quality of American research has remained what people say and think. Soviet Russia sought higher, but China has been catching up, ac- to resolve that contradiction by giving its scien- counting for 11% of the most influential papers in 2014-16. tists privileges, but isolating many of them in closed cities. Such is the pressure on Chinese scientists to make break- China will not be able to corral its rapidly growing scientific throughs that some put ends before means. Last year He Jiankui, elite in that way. Although many researchers will be satisfied an academic from Shenzhen, edited the genomes of embryos with just their academic freedom, only a small number need without proper regard for their post-partum welfare—or that of seek broader self-expression to cause problems for the Commu- any children they might go on to have. Chinese artificial-intelli- nist Party. Think of Andrei Sakharov, who developed the Russian gence (ai) researchers are thought to train their algorithms on hydrogen bomb, and later became a chief Soviet dissident; or data harvested from Chinese citizens with little oversight. In Fang Lizhi, an astrophysicist who inspired the students leading 2007 China tested a space-weapon on one of its weather satel- the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989. When the official ver- lites, littering orbits with lethal space debris. Intellectual-prop- sion of reality was tired and stilted, both stood out as seekers of erty theft is rampant. the truth. That gave them immense moral authority. The looming prospect of a dominant, rule-breaking, high- Some in the West may feel threatened by China’s advances in tech China alarms Western politicians, and not just because of science, and therefore aim to keep its researchers at arm’s length. the new weaponry it will develop. Authoritarian governments That would be wise for weapons science and commercial re- have a history of using science to oppress their own people. Chi- search, where elaborate mechanisms to preserve secrecy already na already deploys aitechniques like facial recognition to mon- exist and could be strengthened. But to extend an arm’s-length itor its population in real time. The outside world might find a approach to ordinary research would be self-defeating. Collabo- China dabbling in genetic enhancement, autonomous ais or ration is the best way of ensuring that Chinese science is respon- geoengineering extremely frightening. sible and transparent. It might even foster the next Fang. These fears are justified. A scientific superpower wrapped up Hard as it is to imagine, Mr Xi could end up facing a much in a one-party dictatorship is indeed intimidating. But the ef- tougher choice: to be content with lagging behind, or to give his fects of China’s growing scientific clout do not all point one way. scientists the freedom they need and risk the consequences. In For a start, Chinese science is about much more than weap- that sense, he is running the biggest experiment of all. 7 12 Leaders The EconomistJanuary12th2019 Politics in Washington How America’s shutdown ends An almighty fight over presidential authority is brewing The government has partially shut down. Again. No other ButthefightisreallyaboutMrTrump’sauthority.Thepresi- advanceddemocracyhasgovernmentshutdowns.InAmeri- dentwasofferedjustsuchatradeayearagobySenateDemocrats. catheyhavebecomealmostroutine.ThisisthethirdsinceDo- Heturneditdown,sayinghewantedcutstolegalimmigration, naldTrumpbecamepresidentandbyfarthemostdamaging.The too. Had he accepted it, the wall would by now be under con- otherswereresolvedquickly;thisisalreadythesecond-longest struction,butMrTrumpisnotthemasterdealmakerheclaimsto onrecord.ItisnothappeningbecauseAmericaisinturmoil:the be. In December he said he would be “proud to shut down the countryisnotatwar,unemploymentisaslowasithaseverbeen. governmentforbordersecurity”.Havingpickedafight,hemust Itishappeningbecausethatiswhatthepresidentwants. winitorseehispowerdiminishedfortherestofhisterm. WhatisplayingoutinWashingtonisthedenouementofapo- Ifpoliticsblockstheobviousdeal,Congresscouldpassabill liticalfight(seeUnitedStatessection).MrTrumpwaselectedon fundingtheentiregovernmentor,alongthelinesofaDemocrat- apromisetobuildawallonthesouthernborder,thoughMexico icidea,allofitbarringHomelandSecurity,andthenoverridethe wassupposedtopayforit.ThenewDemocraticmajorityinthe president’s veto. But that would take a two-thirds majority in House is reluctant to give the president a victory on his best- bothhouses,andsowillnothappensoon. known policy. The Senate majority leader, who Hencethingsmaygetworsebeforetheshut- mightbeabletoendthestand-off,isawol. down ends. Nearly 1m federal employees are House Democrats have reason on their side. workingwithoutpayorhavebeensenthome.At Even knowledgeable immigration hawks think some point their absence will make itself felt. spending $5.7bn on a wall would be a waste of Federalspendingonfoodforthepoorcouldalso money. The number of people crossing the rundry,whichwillhitprogrammesthatpayfor southern border illegally is at a 45-year low. school lunches and milk for infants. The irs Vastly more people fly into the country legally may be unable to pay tax refunds on time. Na- andthenoverstaytheirvisas.Ifillegalimmigra- tional parks and monuments will remain un- tionistheproblem,MrTrumpshouldbefocusingonthat. staffed,harmingbusinessesthatdependontourism.Eventually, Yet it is also true that $5.7bn is peanuts in budgetary terms. the pressure on Republicans in the Senate to bypass the presi- Thefederalgovernmentspendsthatamountevery12hours.And, dentandcutadealcouldproveirresistible. despite what Nancy Pelosi, the House Speaker, says, there is Thereisanotherpossibility.ThepresidentcouldcutoutCon- nothing inherently “immoral” about a wall. Quite a lot of wall gress and award himself emergency powers, allowing him to and fencing was built on the southern border long before Mr spendmoneyonthewallas“militaryconstruction”,evenashe Trumpbecamepresident,andwithDemocraticsupport. reopensthegovernment.Thatwouldsetoffalegaldisputeover If this were just a fight about policy, it is clear what a deal thelimitsofhisauthority.Sadly,theprospectofsucharawexer- wouldlooklike.Congresswouldpassabillgivingcitizenshipto cise of presidential power—to say nothing of a good old fight thosewhoarrivedinthecountryillegallyaschildren,amount- over the law—could appeal to all Mr Trump’s worst instincts. ingtoabout700,000people,andfundthewallinexchange.The Andyettodeclareanemergencywhereonedoesn’texist,legalor president gets something he wants; Democrats get something not,wouldopenanotherchapterinWashington’sdegradationof theywant;Americagetsbackitsgovernment. goodgovernment.7 Britain’s opposition Still having its cake Labour’s Brexit cop-out makes a mockery of its promise to empower party members As the deadline for Britain’s departure from the European bled down on his policy of calculated equivocation. Labour will Union approaches, with an exit deal still elusive, mps are vote against the government’s draft Brexit deal on January 15th, haring off in every direction. Parliament has descended into but has no plausible explanation of how it would get a better one, guerrilla warfare, as backbenchers attempt to wrestle the initia- nor a convincing strategy to break the impasse in Parliament if tive from the executive (see Britain section). Meanwhile the gov- the deal is defeated. Its abdication of responsibility makes La- ernment organised a pretend traffic-jam of 89 lorries on the road bour complicit in the crisis that is about to engulf Britain. And it to Dover, as part of preparations for a “no deal” exit. All it showed exposes the hollowness of Mr Corbyn’s promise that, as leader, was that Britain is hopelessly unprepared for what happens next. he would hand power back to the party’s members, whose grow- Amid the chaos, on January 10th the leader of the opposition, ing calls for a second referendum he continues to ignore. Jeremy Corbyn, stepped forward to propose a way out of the Labour’s Brexit policy amounts to cake followed by more mess. Yet his speech, delivered as we went to press, merely dou- cake. Though the party sensibly rejects the option of leaving with1 The EconomistJanuary12th2019 Leaders 13 2no deal, it insists that the withdrawal terms should provide the Yet Labour’s equivocation is at odds with the strongly pro-eu “exact same benefits” as membership of the single market while views of the half-million party members who elected him. Eight also allowing Britain to manage migration—something the eu out of ten of them voted to remain in 2016. Now seven out of ten would never agree to. In its refusal to acknowledge Brexit’s basic want a second referendum. A party “policy forum” this week trade-offs, Labour is at a stage in the argument that even the most heard calls from constituency associations around the country deluded Tory Brexiteers left behind months ago. for Labour to back a second vote. Even most members of Momen- Its tactics in Parliament are thoroughly obscure. If the gov- tum, a hard-left activist group set up to support Mr Corbyn, want ernment’s deal is voted down, Labour will try to force a general the party to endorse a referendum. election. But that is not in the party’s gift: success depends on the support of Tory and Democratic Unionist mps, who do not want Hearing without listening Mr Corbyn anywhere near Downing Street. The other way to Although all party leaders sometimes have to ignore their mem- break the stalemate would be another referendum. But Labour bers, for Mr Corbyn to go over the heads of the rank and file in says only that such a vote should be one “option on the table”. Mr this instance reeks of hypocrisy. When members re-elected him Corbyn, a convinced Eurosceptic who campaigned only half- leader in 2016, Mr Corbyn said that Labour’s growing member- heartedly to remain in 2016, has confused matters further by ap- ship “has to be reflected much more in decision-making”. Yet, pearing to accept that any referendum should have an option to over Brexit, Labour members who swallowed his promise of remain, but also saying that “we can’t stop” Brexit. “people-powered politics” have been had. Party managers have There is a certain political logic in this lack of clarity. Four out done their best to keep controversial Brexit motions off the agen- of ten Labour voters and six out of ten Labour constituencies da at Labour’s conferences, in feats of stage management worthy backed Brexit. Manyvoters see a second referendum as a plot to of Tony Blair, a predecessor he derides. thwart the will of the people. It may even be in Labour’s interests More important Mr Corbyn’s refusal to listen is letting down to let the Tories drive Britain over the no-deal cliff. Mr Corbyn, the country at large. Britain’s democracy relies on an opposition whose main achievement during three decades in Parliament to provide an alternative. For Labour to show that it is the “gov- was grabbing a selfie with Hugo Chávez, would not win an elec- ernment in waiting” that it claims, it would have to put forward a tion under normal circumstances. The shock doctrine of no deal better Brexit plan than the Tories. This is a dismally low bar. But might just make Britain susceptible to his disaster socialism. the opposition has so far failed to clear it. 7 Pakistan Praetorian penury The impoverishment of Pakistan’s 208m citizens is a disgrace—and the army is to blame It has forso long been a country of such unmet potential that citizenry. And the army, believing the country to be surrounded the scale of Pakistan’s dereliction towards its people is easily by enemies, promotes a doctrine of persecution and paranoia. forgotten. Yet on every measure of progress, Pakistanis fare atro- The effects are dire. Religiosity has bred an extremism that at ciously. More than 20m children are deprived of school. Less times has looked like tearing Pakistan apart. The state backed than 30% of women are employed. Exports have grown at a fifth those who took up arms in the name of Islam. Although they ini- of the rate in Bangladesh and India over the past 20 years. And tially waged war on Pakistan’s perceived enemies, before long now the ambitions of the new government under Imran Khan, they began to wreak havoc at home. Some 60,000 Pakistanis who at least acknowledges his country’s problems (see Briefing), have died at the hands of militants, most of whom come under are thwarted by a balance-of-payments crisis. If Mr Khan gets an the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (ttp). The army at last moved imfbail-out, it will be Pakistan’s 22nd. The per- against them following an appalling school sistence of poverty and maladministration, and massacre in 2014. Yet even today it shelters viol- the instability they foster, is a disaster for the ent groups it finds useful. Some leaders of the world’s sixth-most-populous country. Thanks Afghan Taliban reside in Quetta. The presumed to its nuclear weapons and plentiful religious instigator of a series of attacks in Mumbai in zealots, it poses a danger for the world, too. 2008, which killed 174, remains a free man. Many, including Mr Khan, blame venal poli- Melding religion and state has other costs, ticians for Pakistan’s problems. Others argue including the harsh suppression of local identi- that Pakistan sits in a uniquely hostile part of ties—hence long-running insurgencies in Ba- the world, between war-torn Afghanistan and implacable India. loch and Pushtun areas. Religious minorities, such as the Ahma- Both these woes are used to justify the power of the armed forces. dis, are cruelly persecuted. As for the paranoia, the army is no Yet the army’s pre-eminence is precisely what lies at the heart of more the state’s glorious guardian than India is the implacable Pakistan’s troubles. The army lords it over civilian politicians. foe. Of the four wars between the two countries, all of which Last year it helped cast out the previous prime minister, Nawaz Pakistan lost, India launched only one, in 1971—to put an end to Sharif, and engineer Mr Khan’s rise (as it once did Mr Sharif’s). the genocide Pakistan was unleashing in what became Bangla- Since the founding of Pakistan in 1947, the army has not just desh. Even if politicking before a coming general election ob- defended state ideology but defined it, in two destructive ways. scures it, development interests India more than picking fights. The country exists to safeguard Islam, not a tolerant, prosperous The paranoid doctrine helps the armed forces commandeer 1 14 Leaders The EconomistJanuary12th2019 2resources. More money goes to them than on development. stan’s population will have increased by half. Only sizzling rates Worse, it has bred a habit of geopolitical blackmail: help us fi- of economic growth can guarantee Pakistanis a decent life, and nancially or we might add to your perils in a very dangerous part that demands profound change in how the economy works, peo- of the world. This is at the root of Pakistan’s addiction to aid, de- ple are taught and welfare is conceived. Failing so many, in con- spite its prickly nationalism. The latest iteration of this is Chi- trast, really will be felt beyond the country’s borders. na’s $60bn investment in roads, railways, power plants and Transformation depends on Pakistan doing away with the ports, known as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (cpec). state’s twin props of religion and paranoia—and with them the The fantasy that, without other transformations, prosperity can army’s power. Mr Khan is not obviously the catalyst for radical be brought in from outside is underscored by cpec’s transport change. But he must recognise the problem. He has made a start links. Without an opening to India, they will never fulfil their po- by standing up to demagogues baying for the death of Asia Bibi, a tential. But the army blocks any rapprochement. Christian labourer falsely accused of blasphemy. Mr Khan’s government can do much to improve things. It However, wholesale reform is beyond the reach of any one in- should increase its tax take by clamping down on evasion, give dividual, including the prime minister. Many politicians, busi- independence to the monetary authority and unify the official nesspeople, intellectuals, journalists and even whisky-swilling and black-market exchange rates. Above all, it should seek to generals would far rather a more secular Pakistan. They should boost competitiveness and integrate Pakistan’s economy with speak out. Yes, for some there are risks, not least to their lives or the world’s. All that can raise growth. liberty. But for most—especially if they act together—the elites Yet the challenge is so much greater. By mid-century, Paki- have nothing to lose but their hypocrisy. 7 Peak smartphone Bad news for Apple. Good news for humanity The maturing of the smartphone industry should be celebrated, not lamented When apple cut its revenue estimate for the last quarter of What about the people who still lack a smartphone? Sales of 2018 because of unexpectedly slow sales of iPhones, mar- 1.4bn units a year implies 2.8bn users who replace their handsets kets convulsed. The company’s share price, which had been slid- every two years, or 4.2bn who replace them every three years. ing for months, fell by a further 10% on January 3rd, the day after The reality is somewhere in between, and replacement cycles are the news came out. Apple’s suppliers’ shares were also hit. This lengthening as new models offer only marginal improvements. week Samsung, the world’s largest maker of smartphones by vol- Many phones are used for longer than three years, often refur- ume, which also sells components to other smartphone-makers, bished or as hand-me-downs. So even with flat sales, the longer said its sales were weaker than expected for the quarter, too. gaps between upgrades mean that overall penetration is still ris- Analysts reckon that the number of smartphones sold in 2018 ing. People who already have phones benefit, too. For all but the will be slightly lower than in 2017, the industry’s first ever annual most obsessive gadget fans, the slowing treadmill of upgrades decline. All this is terrible news for investors who had banked on comes as a welcome relief. continued growth (see Business). But step back and look at the Does that mean innovation is slowing? No. The latest phones bigger picture. That smartphone sales have peaked, and seem to contain amazingly clever technology, such as 3d face-scanners be levelling off at around 1.4bn units a year, is and cameras assisted by artificial intelligence. good news for humanity. But as with mature technologies such as cars or Smartphone sales People have voted with their wallets to make Worldwide, units bn washing machines, extra bells and whistles no 1.6 the smartphone the most successful consumer longer make a deep impression. 1.4 product in history: nearly 4bn of the 5.5bn More important is that smartphones support 1.2 adults on the planet now have one. And no won- extra innovation in other areas. Deploying apps 1.0 der. They connect billions of people to the inter- and services on an immature platform whose net’s plethora of information and services. prospects are uncertain is risky; on a mature 2014 15 16 17 18 Phones make markets more efficient, compen- one it is not. Smartphones thus provide a foun- sate for poor infrastructure in developing countries and boost dationfortoday’s innovations, like mobile payments and video growth. Yes, they can be used for wasting time and spreading dis- streaming, and for future ones, such as controlling “smart” information. But the good far outweighs the bad. They might be home appliances or hailing robotaxis. the most effective tool of development in existence. As computers become smaller, still more personal and closer The slowdown does not reflect disenchantment; quite the to people’s bodies, many techies reckon that wearable devices, contrary. It is the result of market saturation. After a decade of from smart watches to augmented-reality headsets, will be the rapid adoption, there is much less scope to sell handsets to first- next big thing. Even so, finding another product with the scope time buyers as so few of them are left. That hits Apple the hardest of the smartphone is a tall order. The smartphone retains its pro- because, despite a relatively small market share (13% of smart- mise as the device that will make computing and communica- phone users), it captures almost all of the industry’s profits. But tions universal. The recent slowing of smartphone sales is bad Apple’s pain is humanity’s gain. The fact that the benefits of news for the industry, obviously. But for the rest of humanity it is these magical devices are now so widely distributed is some- a welcome sign that a transformative technology has become al- thing to be celebrated. most universal. 7 16 Letters The EconomistJanuary12th2019 andwhaleshavedemonstrated DrachmanoftheJewishSab- I asked my daughter, who Nonsense on stilts? consciousawarenessand bathAlliancecampaignedfora studies classics, to give me a The speciousness of animal emotionalexperiencebeyond five-dayweekinAmericaas Greek word for a political rights is obvious when one reasonabledoubt.Theirbasic earlyas1910.Inearliertimes, system where the incompe- considers what animals do to righttolife,withoutcrueltyor Puritanspassedlegislationto tent, the irresponsible, the each other in nature (“Do they extremeconfinement,should ensureworkershadtimefor corrupt and the con artists have rights?”, December 22nd). beano-brainerforallliberals recreation.Andlawsdatingto emerge in political parties and When a cheetah kills a gazelle, seekingtoadvancehappiness 958inEnglandand1203in manage to win elections. The are rights being violated? Is a andfreedom.Iwouldloveto Scotlandrestrictedlabouron term she gave me was crime being committed? Is the seeTheEconomistadoptthis Saturdayafternoonsinorderto “kakistocracy”. I prefer Bage- gazelle’s family entitled to radical,butentirelyreason- preparefortheSabbath. hot’s more pedestrian and less damages? Jurists who find able,position. Thosewhowishtosecurea cacophonic term: “chumo- these questions perplexing are justingiles four-dayworkweekshould cracy” (December 22nd). more likely to find clarity in Charlotte,NorthCarolina notethattheweekendaswe claudio coltro basic moral philosophy than in knowithasbeenbrought Milan case law. Especially helpful is aboutnotonlybyorganised Immanuel Kant’s grounding of Childkillers labour,butalsobyorganised Perhaps “chumpocracy” would duties and rights in our accep- Ireadwithgreatinterest,and religion. be more apt. tance of a universal moral law, indeedsadness,yourpieceon karljohnson andrew johnston our capacity to recognise the genocideprevention(“Never Ithaca,NewYork Radley, Oxfordshire rights of others and temper our again,againandagain”, behaviour accordingly. This December8th).Inyourbrief trait is uniquely human. accountoftheRwandangeno- Illustrator’sFouc-aulp Ho, ho, ho! The fact that animals can cide,youreferredspecifically TheillustratedcalendarinThe As a former consultant, I feel pain or show glimmers of toHutuofficersorganising Worldin2019depictsthewrong enjoyed Bartleby’s report on human-like cognition or adultHutustoslaughtertheir Foucault.LéonFoucault, Santa Claus’s organisation at behaviour does not confer Tutsineighbours.Although knownforhispendulumand the North Pole (December rights. Laws protecting ani- mostofthosewhocommitted celebratinghis200thbirthday 22nd). However, his good mals are perfectly justifiable, genocidalactsinRwandawere inSeptember2019,diedwitha journalistic instincts got in the not because they have rights, indeedadults,therewere fullheadofhairandfavoured way of consulting best prac- but because we value their nonethelesssomechildren, three-piecesuitsoverturtle- tice. There was a distinct lack welfare and are repulsed by includingtheveryyoung,who necks.Picturedinhisstead, of incomprehensible jargon, acts of cruelty against them. wereinvolvedasperpetrators. withtrademarkbaldpateand and the recommendations Upholding such laws does not Theparticipationofchil- spectacles,isMichelFoucault, were delivered in clearly writ- require the cascade of non- dreninactsofatrocitycarries aFrenchphilosopherand ten prose, instead of a baffling sense that would ensue from withitcertainimplications, literarytheorist.Acolytesof 45-slide PowerPoint deck. pretending that animals have particularlywhenitcomesto Foucauldian-discourseanaly- Nevertheless I’ll look for- moral or legal standing. howcountriesdealwithsuch siswilltoasttothecentennial ward this year to a progress Thinkers of a certain bent violentcrimes.Regrettably, ofhisbirthin2026. report on how things are going will find it irresistible to attack Rwandaisnottheexception. peterkalal with outsourcing the rdo the species barrier by decon- Toprovidejustonerecent NewYork (reindeer delivery operations), structing human behaviour example,videopropaganda changes to the ceca(chimney- into purely biological or evolu- fromIslamicStateoverthe enabled customer access) tionary factors. At the rawest pastcoupleofyearshasshown Amissed opportunity process, and the nonvt levels of description, they may childrenasexecutionersin You say that Brussels is more (naughty-or-nice verification have a point. Still, the fact that Syria.Internationaleffortsto eager to make concessions to transformation) project. I am “animal law” seems to focus preventandrespondtosuch eumember countries than sure Bartleby’s imaginary exclusively on how people tragiceventsmustnotneglect non-members (“Brussels consultancy firm will be happy treat them, rather than how children’sinvolvement. pouts”, December 22nd). Sadly, to help with these initiatives animals treat themselves, is a drjastinebarrett this was not David Cameron’s (for a juicy fee and Lapland tacit acknowledgment of a Harpenden,Hertfordshire experience before the referen- Airways expenses, of course). moral distinction. dum in 2016. Back then, the eu nathaniel kent henry stephenson should have offered an emer- London O’Fallon, Illinois God blessed the seventh day gency brake on free movement. Regarding the prospect of a But it is not too late. Indeed, Surely Bartleby’s “Yule Univer- I was excited to see your article four-day work week, an given the events in Europe over sity” would be a member of the on the advancement of animal understanding of the past is the past two years, an eu-wide Holly League. rights. Your newspaper has indeed in order, but it is too emergency brake of some form charlie wilson frequently called for a bolder simple to say that “organised would probably be welcomed Oxford and more radical modern labour has led the charge for throughout the eu. Now we liberalism, and this is an obvi- reduced working hours” (Free know so much more about ous issue in need of an update. exchange, December 22nd). Brexit, that concession would Lettersarewelcomeandshouldbe Although animal welfare in Christian clergy and lay leaders certainly clinch a vote for addressedtotheEditorat TheEconomist,TheAdelphiBuilding, general remains complicated on both sides of the Atlantic Remain in a re-run. Come on 1-11JohnAdamStreet,LondonWC2N6HT (and I for one have no desire to collaborated with labour to Angela! Email:[email protected] give rights to clams), species push for shorter hours in the andrew robson Morelettersareavailableat: Economist.com/letters such as great apes, dolphins 19th century. Rabbi Bernard Chailey, East Sussex