After Mueller, what next? Behind the attacks in Sri Lanka Huawei: Britain’s artful compromise Oil’s threat to global growth APRIL27TH–MAY3RD2019 South Africa’s best bet How Cyril Ramaphosa can clean up the rainbow nation Contents The EconomistApril27th2019 3 The world this week United States 6 Around-up of political 19 Robert Mueller’s report andbusinessnews 21 War powers 21 Minimum wages Leaders 24 Churchgoing 9 Cyril Ramaphosa 24 Judicial elections South Africa’s best bet 25 Census and sensibility 10 Technology and security The right call on Huawei 26 LexingtonJoeBiden 10 Donald Trump After Mueller, what next? The Americas 11 Sri Lanka 27 Trump v the troika of tyranny Easterevil 12 Oilprices 28 Miffed, moderate Panama On the cover Spoilingthemood 30 BelloA Peruvian The most plausible way to ex-president’s suicide clean up the rainbow nation is Letters to back Cyril Ramaphosa: 14 Onsyntheticbiology, leader,page 9. He has brought Spain,workers,climate Asia South Africa back from the change,economics, 33 Atrocities in Sri Lanka brink. But even if his party Indonesia,Yiddish wins the general election in 34 Indonesia’s election May, he faces a daunting task. 35 Medical marijuana in Briefing See our special report, after Thailand page40 16 Huawei 35 Identity politics in India Communication •After Mueller, what next? 36 Opposing North Korea breakdown Now that the special counsel’s 37 BanyanTaiwan’s report is public, here is what tycoon-turned-politician Specialreport: Congress should do with it: SouthAfrica leader,page 10. For the time being, the president is above the Savingthenation China law, page 19 Afterpage40 38 Belt-and-road blues 39 Locking up activists in •Behind the attacks in Sri Lanka Hong Kong The bombers wanted to provoke aclash of civilisations. Don’t fall 40 ChaguanNaval dreams into their trap: leader,page 11. Islamist suicide-bombers kill more than 350 people, page 33 Middle East & Africa •Huawei: Britain’s artful compromiseIts calibrated 41 Painful progress in Egypt approach to dealing with the 42 Egypt’s deadly delicacy Chinese telecoms giant is a 43 Sudan’s fragile revolution model for other countries, page 10. How Huawei became mired in political controversy: briefing, page 16.Growing foreign suspicion is hemming in SchumpeterA ride back China Inc’s rising global stars, through history offers page 55 sobering lessons, page 60 •Oil’s threat to global growth Rising oil prices could yet prevent a rebound in the world economy,page 12. America is seeking to reshape oil markets, page 61 1 Contents continues overleaf 4 Contents The EconomistApril27th2019 Europe Finance & economics 44 Ukraine’s comedian 61 The rising price of oil president 62 Price controls in 45 Bosnia on the edge Argentina 46 Vietnamese in the 63 Nigeria’s banks bulk up Visegrad 63 Germany’s bank-merger 46 Syrians in Turkey fiasco 47 Europe’s shifting centre 64 Buttonwood The art of selling 48 Charlemagne The rise of pan-Europeanpolitics 65 Evaluating NAFTA’s successor Britain 65 Efficient markets and 49 The Downton Abbey the law economy 66 Free exchange The risks 50 Adeath in Derry ofgeoengineering 51 BagehotIgnore the European election Science & technology 67 Screening for lung cancer 68 Testing new materials International 69 Lemur colour-blindness 52 How monarchies survive 70 Voice for the speechless 70 The psychology of golf Books & arts 71 Crisis and history 72 African-American history Business 72 Anovel of London 55 China Inc’s hostile 73 JohnsonPolyglot reception abroad politicians 56 BartlebyAn office with 74 The mystery of music aview 74 Guinea-Bissau’s writers’ 57 Kraft Heinz’s new boss club 58 Online vocational training 58 Smart-ish phones Economic & financial indicators 59 European airlines 76 Statisticson42economies 59 Troubled tour operators Graphic detail 60 SchumpeterCan Uber make money? 77 TariffsonAmericangoodstargetDonaldTrump’svoters Obituary 78 Charles Van Doren, saint and sinner of the TV quiz show Subscription service For our full range of subscription offers, including digital only or print and digital combined, visit: Economist.com/offers Volume431Number9140 PublishedsinceSeptember1843 You can also subscribe by mail, telephone or email: One-year print-only subscription (51 issues): Please totakepartin“aseverecontestbetween North America intelligence, which presses forward, The Economist Subscription Center, United States..........................................US $189 (plus tax) and an unworthy, timid ignorance P.O. 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Canada Post publications mail (Canadian distribution) sales agreement no. 40012331. Return undeliverable Canadian addresses to The Economist, PO Box 7258 STN A, Toronto, ON M5W 1X9. GST R123236267. Printed by Quad/Graphics, Saratoga Springs, NY 12866 6 The world this week Politics The EconomistApril27th2019 Joko Widodo won re-election China’spresident,XiJinping, despite bribes of food parcels as president of Indonesia, attendedanavaldisplayin for many who cast a ballot. beating Prabowo Subianto, a celebrationofthe70thanni- former general who also ran versaryoftheChinesefleet. Jared Kushner, Donald Trump’s against him in 2014. Now as Shipsfrom13othercountries son-in-law and adviser, said a then, Mr Prabowo has refused joinedtheceremonies.Ameri- long-delayed peace plan for to concede defeat, saying the cadidnotsendavessel.Senior Israelisand Palestinianswill election was rigged. Americanswerealsoabsent be unveiled in June. fromagatheringinBeijingof Kazakhstan’sruling party about40leadersandrepre- Saudi Arabia executed 37 named the acting president, sentativesfromdozensof people on charges of terrorism, Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev, as countriestodiscussChina’s including one who was cruci- Jihadists in Sri Lankasuicide- its candidate for a snap presi- BeltandRoadInitiative. fied. Most of those killed were bombed three churches and dential election in June. That from the Shia minority. Hu- three hotels on Easter Sunday, all but guarantees Mr Tokayev’s Myanmar’shighestcourt man-rights groups accused the killing more than 350 people. election to a full term. He has upheldtheconvictionoftwo government of holding sham Islamic State claimed respon- been acting president since journalistsfromReutersfor trials and using the death sibility.The Sri Lankan au- Nursultan Nazarbayev, the breakingthelawonstatese- penalty to stamp out dissent. thorities blamed a little- incumbent of 30 years, crets.Thejournalistssaythey known local group, which they resigned abruptly in March. wereframedbythesecurity Two weeks after large demon- say may have had external servicesforrevealingamassa- strations drove Omar al-Bashir help. The government received A court in Hong Kongsen- creofciviliansbythearmy. from power in Sudan, talks several detailed warnings, but tenced eight activists for their between protesters and the does not seem to have acted on role in the pro-democracy military continued. The army them. The president asked his “Umbrella Movement” of 2014. Astronger strongman said it would share power with chief of staff and the head of The harshest punishments, of Egyptians votedto approve a technocratic government as a the police to resign. It emerged 16 months in jail, were im- constitutional amendments presidential election is that the president had been posed on two academics. A that increase the powers of prepared. But it seems reluc- excluding the prime minister Baptist ministeralso received a President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi tant to give up control. Big and his allies from national 16-month prison term, but it and allow him to stay in office protests were held in the security meetings. was suspended. until 2030. Turnout was low, capital, Khartoum. 1 The EconomistApril27th2019 Theworldthisweek 7 2Theworld’slargestdrone- hereceivedbribesfrom democratic transfer of power mation about the killing. The deliverynetworkwas Odebrecht,aBraziliancon- in the former Soviet Union. “Free Derry” mural, a symbol of launchedinGhana.Zipline,an structioncompany. the Troubles, had “Not In Our Americanstartup,willdis- Vladimir Putinplayed host to Name” added to it and red tributevaccinesandother Argentina’spro-business Kim Jong Un, the leader of handprints were daubed on the medicalsuppliesbyoperating president,MauricioMacri, North Korea, in his first visit to office of a political party sup- 600droneflightsaday. frozepricesof64consumer Russia. After the apparent ported by the New ira, which items,frommilktojam,forsix failure of his negotiations with apologised for the murder. months.MrMacrihopesthat Donald Trump, the North Upping the pressure inflation,whichwas54.1%in Korean dictator may be looking The Trump administration theyeartoMarch,willfall for a new friend. Always with us announced new sanctions on beforethepresidentialelec- Democrats in America’s House Cuba, Nicaraguaand Venezu- tion,duetobeheldinOctober. of Representatives debated the ela, which it calls the “troika of CristinaFernándezdeKirch- Mueller report. Nancy Pelosi, tyranny”. Americans can now ner,hispopulistpredecessor, the Speaker, cautioned against sue people or companiesthat isleadinginthepolls. trying to impeach President do business involving property Donald Trump, since he is sure expropriated after Cuba’s to be acquitted in the Senate. revolution in 1959. John The power of fame Democratic presidential candi- Bolton, the American national Volodymyr Zelensky was elect- dates seemed much keener. security adviser, announced ed president of Ukraine, that America would further trouncing the incumbent, The queen invited Donald restrict travel to Cuba by Petro Poroshenko, with an Trump to Britainahead of the people who do not have rela- astonishing 73% of the vote. A Lyra McKee, a 29-year-old 75th anniversary of the d-Day tives there. comedian whose political journalist, was killed in North- landings in June.Mr Trump experience consisted of play- ern Irelandby gunfire aimed will hope for a better reception Alan García, a former president ing a president on tv, Mr Ze- at the police during rioting in than last year, when he slipped of Peru, killed himself after lensky now has to deal with a Londonderry. Local residents, in to sip tea with the queen at police arrived at his home to war in the east of the country, known for their distrust of the Windsor Castle. Protesters arrest him. Prosecutors were corrupt oligarchs and a disen- authorities, were quick to then floated a baby-Trump investigating allegations that chanted electorate. It was a rare contact police with infor- blimp over London. 8 The world this week Business The EconomistApril27th2019 The British government report- thesocial-mediacompany companies fared particularly mance since the financial edly gave the go ahead for afterlastyear’sCambridge badly last year, but the nasdaq crisis. Korean exports have Huaweito supply equipment Analyticascandal.Facebook has also reached a new record. fallen sharply. for Britain’s 5gnetworks. The warnedthatthepenaltycould controversial decision comes beashighas$5bn. Not everyone has had a good Britain’s competition regulator after America urged its allies start to the year. ubsdescribed blocked the merger of J. Sains- not to use telecoms hardware the first quarter as “challeng- buryand Asda, a subsidiary of made by Huawei, which Wash- Twitter post ing”, as earnings at its core Walmart, which would have ington believes to be a security Investors were delighted with wealth-management business created the country’s biggest threat because of alleged ties to Twitter’searnings. The social- and its investment bank de- supermarket chain. The regu- China’s army. Huawei will media company reported its clined significantly. Still, the lator found that the deal would provide antennas and other sixth successive quarterly Swiss bank made anoverall net have led to higher prices. transmission equipment for profit on the back of a surge in profit of $1.1bn. Britain’s 5ginfrastructure, but revenues, to $787m. Its mea- Herman Cainwithdrew his it is banned from more sensi- sure of daily users, counting Impeded by restructuring costs name for consideration for a tive parts of the networks that only those who see ads, rose to and extra capital requirements, seat on the board of the Federal handle customer data. 134m. Twitter said its improved Deutsche Bankand Reserve. Donald Trump’s de- performance was explained in Commerzbankabandoned sire to nominate Mr Cain had Kraft Heinzannounced that part by weeding out abusive their plan to merge. sparked a backlash, even Bernardo Hees would step content, around 40% of which among Republicans worried down in June as chief exec- is now detected by machine- America demanded that coun- that the president was seeking utive, an abrupt move amid a learning algorithms. tries stop buying Iranian oilor to undermine the indepen- mountain of problems at the face sanctions, ending months dence of the central bank by food giant, including a $15.4bn of waivers for Iran’s biggest appointing his supporters. write-down. The new ceois S&P 500 buyers. The price of oil rose 1941-43=10 Miguel Patricio, who has sharply in response, pushing 3,000 worked for 20 years in senior Brent crude to $75 a barrel. Wanted: A safe pair of hands 2,750 jobs at Anheuser-Busch InBev. The British government started 2,500 His appointment is backed by Occidentaloffered to buy the formal process for seeking 3gCapital, an investment 2,250 Anadarkofor $55bn, exceed- the next governor of the Bank 2,000 group that brought about the ing Chevron’srecent $49bn of England. Mark Carney has mergers which created both bid, which has been accepted held the job since 2013. Brit- Kraft Heinz and abInBev. S O N D J F M A by Anadarko’s board. Anadarko ain’s chancellor of the exche- 2018 2019 is so alluring because of its quer, Philip Hammond, hopes Source: Datastream from Refinitiv Boeingreported a quarterly assets in shale oil. to sign someone for an eight- net profit of $2.2bn. Revenue Thes&p500indexhitanew year contract, a period which from its commercial-aircraft high. Stockmarketshave South Korea’seconomy unex- will see Britain mired in the division was $1bn lower than broadly recovered from their pectedly shrank in the first process of withdrawing from in the same quarter a year ago, drubbing in 2018. The s&p500 quarter, by 0.3% compared the eu. After three years of which the aerospace company has registered its best start to a with the previous three Brexit, Mr Hammond believes said reflected a fall in deliv- year since 1987. Shares in tech months, the worst perfor- that “Stability has a value”. eries of the 737 maxaircraft, which was grounded in March. Boeing ditched its profit fore- cast for 2019, as it works to sort out problems with the max. Nissanissued its second profit warning this year, in part because of “the impact of recent corporate issues on sales”. The Japanese carmaker sacked Carlos Ghosn as its boss last November amid allega- tions of financial wrongdoing, which he denies. He was indicted on a fourth charge this week, but also granted bail. Facebookset aside $3bn to cover a potential fine from America’s Federal Trade Com- mission for violating an agree- ment that promised it would not collect personal data and share it without permission. The ftcbegan investigating Leaders Leaders 9 South Africa’s best bet The most plausible way to clean up the rainbow nation is to back Cyril Ramaphosa Since thedaysofNelsonMandela,oneofthemosteffective dorsedthedain2014.Butthistime,withdeep reservations, we slogans of the African National Congress (anc), South Africa’s would cast our notional vote, at the national level, for the anc. ruling party, has been “a better life for all”. The contrast with the Our reasons are painfully pragmatic. The da has the right old apartheid regime, which promised a good life only for ideas for fixing South Africa, but is in no position to implement whites, has never needed spelling out. As the party that helped them. It is still seen as the party of those who are white, Indian or liberate black South Africans from votelessness and segregation, Coloured (to use the local term for mixed-race). Because black the anchas ruled uninterrupted since apartheid ended in 1994, South Africans are 80% of the population and mostly support the always winning national elections by wide margins. The trouble anc, the dacannot win (except at the provincial level—and here, is, when one party has nearly all the power, the kind of people we would enthusiastically endorse the da). For the national par- who seek power in order to abuse it and grow rich flock to join liament, the crucial questions are: will the ancwin an outright that party. Corruption, always a problem, became so widespread majority? And will the election strengthen or weaken Mr Rama- under Jacob Zuma, South Africa’s atrocious president from 2009 phosa’s reforming hands? to 2018, that a more accurate anc slogan during his rule would If the ancdoes badly, it will undermine Mr Ramaphosa and have been “a better life for the president and his cronies”. embolden the large faction within his party that would like to see As our special report in this issue describes, in those nine lost him stumble. These are the bigwigs who profited from the Zuma years Mr Zuma’s chums systematically plundered the state. Hon- years, and did not mind the race-baiting that the Zuma camp est watchdogs were sacked. Investors fled, economic growth used to distract public attention from its own misdeeds. It also stalled, public debt soared and unemployment (even by a narrow includes some of the party’s hard left, who regard Mr Ramaphosa definition) rose from 23% to 27%. Eskom, the bloated, looted na- as altogether too friendly to capitalism. Given a chance, Mr Ra- tional electricity firm, can no longer reliably keep the lights on or maphosa’s anc rivals would love to replace him with someone factories humming. Corruption has crippled public services. more pliable—and that would be disastrous. Many South Africans are frightened of their own police, and If the ancfalls short of a governing majority and has to forge nearly 80% of nine- and ten-year-olds cannot read or under- an alliance with a smaller party, things could be even worse. It stand a simple sentence. might climb into bed with the Economic Free- Yet there is hope. Mr Zuma is gone, narrowly dom Fighters, a black-nationalist group that ousted by his own party and now charged with outdoes Mr Zuma in its racist demagoguery and some 700 counts of corruption. His replace- disregard for economic reality. (It wants to seize ment as party boss and president of South Afri- all white-owned land, and nationalise mines, ca, Cyril Ramaphosa, is an honest reformer. He banks and other “strategic sectors” without is also a tremendously skilful politician—he compensation, for starters.) Such an alliance was one of the chief negotiators who persuaded would foster an even more bloated, corrupt and the apartheid regime to give up power long be- ineffective state. fore it would have been forced to. At elections on May 8th voters The least bad plausible outcome, then, is for voters to give the have a choice. Do they back the ancagain, trusting that Mr Ra- anca solid majority, thus boosting Mr Ramaphosa and allowing maphosa will continue to clean up the party and revive the na- him to shun the populists and face down the mafia within his tion? Or do they give the opposition a chance? (They cannot vote own party. That way, he can continue the tough work of replacing directly for the president; he is chosen by parliament, in which useless Zuma appointees with law-abiding, competent people. seats are allocated by proportional representation.) Over the next five years he should also allow prosecutors free The case for dumping the ruling party is strong. It has been in rein to hunt looters; break up Eskom’s power monopoly; enact a power for 25 years—too long for any party, anywhere. Despite Mr moratorium on job-killing regulations; take on the teachers’ un- Ramaphosa’s efforts, it is still stuffed with crooks, some of them ions that throttle education reform; and ensure that any land re- too powerful for the president to sack. Though home to a broad form extends property rights rather than trampling on them. range of ideologies, the anchas recently seen a worrying resur- gence of far-left populism among its cadres. For example, it vows The man Madiba wanted to change the constitution to allow the expropriation of farm- There is a big risk that none of this will happen, that the anchas land without compensation. grown so rotten that no one can reform it. However, Mr Rama- The case for backing the liberal opposition, the Democratic phosa’s record so far suggests that he is more likely than anyone Alliance (da), is also strong. It is far cleaner than the anc. Its else to accomplish what is necessary. South Africa cannot afford charismatic young leader, Mmusi Maimane, believes in free for him to fail; nor can the rest of Africa. Despite the wasted markets. The parts of the country that it runs, including Cape Zuma years, the rainbow nation still has the continent’s most so- Town and Johannesburg, are islands of efficiency in a sea of phisticated economy, vibrant civil society and feisty media. Hav- murk and incompetence. Though the vast majority of munici- ing overcome apartheid without a civil war, it has long been an palities are controlled by the anc, a recent study by Good Gover- inspiration to the world. All this is now in jeopardy, but Mr Ra- nance Africa, a think-tank, found that 15 of the 20 best-governed maphosa, the man Mandela originally wanted to succeed him, were run by the da, alone or in a coalition. The Economist en- has a chance to save his legacy. He must not blow it.7 10 Leaders The EconomistApril27th2019 Technology and security The right call on Huawei Britain’s measured approach to dealing with the controversial Chinese firm is a model for other countries Onapril24ththenewsbrokethatBritain’sgovernmenthad usually gain access to networks through flaws in software cod- decidedtopermitpartsofthecountry’s5gmobilenetworks ing.ThisiswhyRussiacancausemayhemabroad,despitehav- tobebuiltbyHuawei,aChinesefirm.ManyAmericansandother ingnocommercialroleinWesterntelecomsnetworks. friendsofBritainwillbeappalledbyitsdecisionandfearthatthe A ban would also have geopolitical costs. If an open system country is being naive and toadying up to China. Huawei has, forglobalcommerceistobesaved,aframeworkhastobebuilt afterall,becomeoneofthemostcontroversialfirmsintheworld forcountriestoengageeconomicallyeveniftheyarerivals.No and sits at the centre of a geopolitical storm. America worries evidenceofspyingviaHuaweigearhasbeenmadepublic.Most thatthetelecomsequipment-makerisaTrojanhorseforChina’s emergingeconomieshavenointentionofprohibitingit.Aban spiesandautocratsandposesagravethreattoWesterninterests. byafewAmericanalliesriskssplittingtheworldintotwoblocs. Ithasbeenurgingitsalliestobanit. AndasystemwithoutrulescouldbeabusedtohobbleotherChi- Britain’sdecisionmatters:itisamemberofthe“FiveEyes”in- nesefirmsengagedinlegitimateactivity(seeBusinesssection). telligence-sharing alliance led by America, and was one of the Foracalibratedpolicytosucceed,Britainandothercountries firstWesterneconomiesinwhichHuaweibuiltapresence.Brit- willneedtoobservethreeprinciples.Thefirstiscontinualmon- ainalsohasexperienceofelectronicspyingand itoring for hidden back doors and bugs. Since knows Huawei well. Far from being a betrayal, 2010 Britain has had a system for vetting Hua- Britain’s approach, of using the firm’s gear on wei’ssoftwareandsystems.Thisshouldcontin- the edges of 5g networks, under close supervi- ue and be extended to other 5g providers, with sion, offers a sensible framework for limited the aim of minimising the sloppy coding that commercial engagement while protecting Brit- createsvulnerabilities. ain’ssecurityandthatofitsallies. Thesecondprincipleistolimitthescopeof Huaweihasannualsalesof$105bnfrom170 Huawei’sactivities.Britainwillexcludeitsgear countries.Itisaleadingsupplierofequipment fromthenetwork“core”,wherethemostsensi- fornew5gnetworksthatwillconnectavastarrayofdevicesand tive processing takes place, and from government networks. become deeply embedded in the economy. Rumours have long Militarycommunicationsshouldalsobekeptisolated.Andthe circulated that Huawei is cosy with China’s army, and worries use of other equipment vendors means that if a problem aboutthefirmhaveintensifiedinthepasttwoyears(seeBrief- emerges,itiseasytoswitchfirms. ing). In February Mike Pompeo, America’s secretary of state, Thefinalprincipleisthatau-turnisalwayspossible.Britain threatenedtolimitco-operationwithcountriesthatusedHua- shoulddemandthatHuaweicontinuallyraisesstandardsinits weigear.AmericaisalsotryingtoextraditeaHuaweiexecutive softwareandimprovesitsopaquegovernance—andshouldhave (thedaughterofitsfounder)fromCanadaforsanctions-busting. noqualmsaboutchuckingitoutifitdoesnot.Nooneshouldbe TheeasiestoptionforBritainwouldhavebeentobanHuawei naiveaboutHuawei.Butneithershouldanyonebecomplacent from 5g networks, as Australia has. But that would be wrong- about the dangers of a trading system racked by confrontation headed. One reason is technical. Refusing to use Huawei hard- andadhocbans.TherightpathistomitigatetherisksHuawei ware does relatively little to eliminate the risk of cyber-attacks presentsandavoidanescalatingtradewarthatmakeseconomic by hostile governments. State-backed hackers and saboteurs engagementbetweentheWestandChinaimpossible.7 Donald Trump After Mueller, what next? Now that the special counsel’s report is public, here is what Congress should do with it American voterswaited almost two years for the Mueller re- iour of the Trump campaign and administration that might oth- port. Most of its findings turned out to have already been erwise have been dismissed as thinly sourced or ideologically published over the previous 13 months by investigative reporters motivated (see United States section). It shows a campaign, a and in indictments issued by Robert Mueller’s office. But that transition team and then a White House run by a person who will makes it no less extraordinary. While the special counsel found lie about the most serious issues and who tells his staff to break no evidence to sustain a conspiracy charge, he described a cam- the law in order to obstruct justice—including by sacking Mr paign eager to co-operate with a foreign adversary and a presi- Mueller. President Donald Trump’s summary of the report (“no dent who may have obstructed justice. This leaves America’s sys- collusion - no obstruction!”) and his attorney-general’s at- tem of checks and balances in an uncomfortable position. tempt to spin it as a paean to presidential virtue are further ex- What the report lacks in novelty it makes up for in thorough- amples of the administration’s contempt for facts. ness, adding detail and credibility to accounts about the behav- All elections are street fights, but Mr Mueller and his team 1 The EconomistApril27th2019 Leaders 11 2showed that Mr Trump’s campaign staff in 2016 placed America That leaves America’s constitution in a quandary. One of the at risk from a foreign adversary. The campaign knew about and guiding principles of the experiment undertaken in 1776 was that encouraged Russian efforts to help his election; the Russian gov- no man should be above the law. Having just got rid of one unac- ernment concluded that a Trump victory would be in its interests countable tyrant, the founders were keen to prevent the emer- and so worked towards that end. What saved the president was gence of a homegrown version. Set against this, they did not the absence of a formal agreement to co-ordinate their efforts. want the president tied down by petty legal squabbles. The foun- What, if anything, should Congress do with Mr Mueller’s ders therefore meant removing a president by impeachment to findings? The special counsel explained he had not charged the be hard, to become possible only once a significant number of president with obstruction of justice, in part because of a guide- the president’s own faction had deserted him. line drawn up by the Justice Department in 1973, amid Watergate, Yet the founders did not foresee the rise of a rigid two-party which says that the federal bureaucracy cannot indict its own system that mirrors the rural-urban divide. That makes it very boss. The authors of the constitution made it clear that Congress hard in practice for either faction in the Senate to assemble the has the task of dealing with a rogue president. two-thirds majority required to convict the president in an im- Should it therefore start impeachment hearings? The best ar- peachment trial, unless the rank and file of their party move gument for this is that failure to sanction Mr Trump would estab- against the president, too. Lined up the right way, senators who lish a precedent, signalling to some future president that the ly- represent 25m citizens could acquit a president, against the ing, the footsie with Russia and attempts at obstruction are just wishes of senators who represent 300m. Getting rid of a rule- fine. Yet rushing into an impeachment would still be a mistake. breaking president was not supposed to be this difficult. Impeachment is a hybrid. It is part legal, because it involves a The result is that one man is, in effect, above the law for all but trial; but the framers intended it to be political, too, because the the most serious and readily understandable crimes, such as trial is conducted by elected representatives who, inevitably, murder, which would surely be too much even for the commit- think as politicians. Were Mr Trump to be impeached now by the ted partisans of either side. Congress should legislate against Democrat-controlled House he would be acquitted in the Repub- such impunity at a later date. Most democracies have indepen- lican-controlled Senate. This would not be much of a rebuke. dent prosecutors able to indict the chief executive. When someone is found not guilty in court, that is usually taken Right now, Congress should also take up Mr Mueller’s invita- as an exoneration. If Democrats dismissed an acquittal as parti- tion to do its part by using hearings to give his witnesses the san nonsense, Republicans would likewise ridicule the decision chance to tell the American people what happened. The House to impeach. There is a risk that a failed effort to remove Mr should impeach only if the case builds over the coming months, Trump would boost him as he is seeking re-election, as it boost- leading Republican senators to change their position. An im- ed Bill Clinton. Democratic leaders in the House calculate, prob- peachment that fails along party lines is worse than useless. Bet- ably correctly, that impeachment is not in their interest either. ter to trust the wisdom of voters in 2020.7 Sri Lanka Easter evil The bombers wanted to provoke a clash of civilisations. Don’t fall into their trap Afew months ago National Thowheed Jamath (ntj), an Is- tory of jihadist terrorism, nor even of much tension between lamist group from Sri Lanka, was known for little more than Muslims and Christians, it sits in an ocean of bubbling extrem- defacing statues of the Buddha. On April 21st nine of its members ism. In recent decades in South Asia, intolerant strands of Islam walked into churches and luxury hotels on the island and blew have edged out the broad-minded forms that used to predomi- themselves up, killing more than 350 people. Islamic State (is) nate. That has created fertile ground for jihadists. The Maldives, claimed responsibility for the deadliest set of terrorist attacks in just a short flight from Sri Lanka, sent more recruits to isin Iraq Asia in modern times (see Asia section). and Syria as a proportion of its population than How could this happen? Start with Sri Lan- any other country. Bangladesh, across the Bay of ka’s bungling. The world has learned a great deal Bengal, has suffered a wave of Islamist attacks about how to thwart terrorists since September on secular activists and minorities in the past 11th 2001. A crucial lesson is that it is vital to six years. Sri Lanka’s suicide-bombers reported- share information quickly and widely, so that ly contacted is veterans from both those coun- fragmentary intelligence can be pieced together tries. International jihadists have also cropped and followed up. This is precisely what Sri Lan- up across the Palk Strait in the Indian state of ka’s government failed to do, despite receiving Tamil Nadu, which is bound to northern Sri Lan- unusually detailed warnings. Part of the reason for that appears ka by ethnic kinship. It was an is suspect arrested there who is to be shameless politicking. The island’s president, Maithripala said to have yielded some of the intelligence passed to Sri Lanka’s Sirisena, has been at loggerheads with the prime minister, Ranil government (which was then ignored). Wickremesinghe, since the former tried to sack the latter in Oc- On top of all this, Mr Wickremesinghe says that some of the tober. Mr Wickremesinghe has been excluded from meetings of bombers had been to Syria; they are likely to have been among the national security council since then. the three dozenSri Lankans who have fought with is. In short, Sri A second explanation is that, although Sri Lanka has no his- Lanka is not as quarantined from global jihadist networks as one 1 12 Leaders The EconomistApril27th2019 2might think. Few countries are. And as ishas been bombed out of lished a code of conduct that said Hindu, Muslim and Buddhist its so-called caliphate, thousands of its fighters have dispersed civilians and places of worship would not be attacked. By con- the world over, grafting themselves onto local Islamist groups trast, is proudly claims attacks on religious targets, including like Sri Lanka’s ntj and disseminating ideology and expertise. churches in Egypt, the Philippines, Indonesia, Pakistan and now The threat of jihadist attacks is therefore likely to grow. Sri Lanka.The aim of such sectarian terrorism is to promote the Last, the form of the atrocity in Sri Lanka—striking not only at narrative of a clash of civilisations—an aim the jihadists share hotels full of Westerners, but also at three churches—reflects the with white-nationalist terrorists, such as the one who attacked changing pattern of jihadist violence. Though al-Qaeda railed two mosques inNew Zealand last month. against “Jews and Crusaders” in the 1990s, it made its name strik- Both groups want to sow discord and force people to choose ing secular targets, such as embassies and warships. Its more sides. The jihadists would love to provoke a backlash against radical offshoot, is, instead came to prominence in Iraq by Muslims, in the hope of pushing more Muslims into their camp. slaughtering local Muslims who disagreed with its bloodthirsty Neither governments nor citizens should fall into that trap. In- interpretation of the Koran, often with a degree of violence that stead, they should work harder to catch terrorists, while doing even al-Qaeda’s leaders thought excessive. their best to soothe relations between Muslims and their neigh- ishas exported its modus operandi. In 2017 al-Qaeda in the In- bours. It was the Muslim Council of Sri Lanka, remember, that dian Subcontinent (aqis), al-Qaeda’s South Asian branch, pub- first reported ntjto the authorities three years ago.7 Oil prices Spoiling the mood Rising oil prices could yet prevent a rebound in the world economy The sense of pessimism that hung over the world economy deal—they were then stung by his granting of the waivers. In early this year has begun to lift in recent weeks. Trade flows public they have pledged to keep the market in balance, but they are picking up in Asia, America’s retail sales have been strong, also say there is no need for immediate action. and even Europe’s beleaguered manufacturing industry has Working out what pricier oil means for the world economy is shown flickers of life. But it would not take much bad news to re- more complex than it used to be. In America gas-guzzling con- instate the gloom. One threat is that oil prices continue their up- sumers will have to pay more to fill up their cars. But ever since ward march—on April 23rd the price of a barrel of Brent crude ex- the shale revolution, there has been an offsetting benefit to ceeded $74, the highest level for nearly six months. Though the American gdp because higher prices stimulate investment in dynamics of the oil market have changed over the past decade, the Permian and other shale basins. Other producer countries dearer oil still acts as a drag on global growth. are also more likely to spend any oil windfall than they used to The latest jump in oil prices has resulted from anticipation of be, supporting global demand. And more expensive oil should a shock to supply, rather than surging demand (see Finance sec- bring the benefit of lower carbon emissions (so long as it does tion). On April 22nd America said that it would end waivers not prompt the discovery of vast new oil fields). granted to a number of big economies, including China, India Yet right now, pricier oil would be bad news for the global and Turkey, which allowed them to import Ira- economy. It would hit its weaker spots. Europe, nian oil, bypassing America’s sanctions regime. Oil price whose economy is in worse shape than Ameri- These waivers were put in place after President Brent crude, $ per barrel ca’s, has no shale industry to compensate for a 100 Donald Trump pulled out of a nuclear deal with hit to its consumers. China, which imports vast Iran in 2018. Their expiry on May 2nd could re- 75 quantities of the black stuff, was the source of duce the global supply of oil by more than 1m 50 much of the recent global growth scare. And barrels per day (about 1% of the total). economic crises in Turkey, Argentina and Paki- That is not the only threat to supply. War 2018 2019 stan would be made worse by the higher infla- threatens production in Libya. Sanctions tion and larger current-account deficits that a against Venezuela have taken supply off the market. Although a rising oil price would bring. bottleneck in the Texan Permian basin will be relieved this year, Higher oil prices could also reduce central bankers’ leeway to it does not produce the heavy, sour crude found in Venezuela. see off any downturn. After oil prices rose in 2018, several central And, after the American announcement, the head of Iran’s navy banks in emerging markets subsequently raised rates, fearing said that if it is prevented from using the Strait of Hormuz, inflation. In America and Europe policymakers have this year through which one-fifth of the global oil supply flows, it could been able to loosen the stance of monetary policy, providing try to close the waterway for everyone else, too. economies with a much-needed boost to growth, because they Oil inventories are low, and it is far from clear that other pro- can point to muted inflation expectations. Higher oil prices ducers will increase output enough to compensate for the supply could start to put that trend into reverse. With many labour mar- shock. In the long term Saudi Arabia and other opec members kets tight, central bankers are more likely to be spooked by oil- have an incentive to avoid sky-high prices, which would lead to a driven inflationary pressure. new wave of capital pouring into American shale production. A serious oil-price shock remains a possibility at this stage But the last time the Saudis complied with a request from the rather than a probability. But with the world economy still in a White House to pump more—after Mr Trump scrapped the Iran fragile state, it is an uncomfortable risk to run. 7