MTR060202 MITRE TECHNICAL REPORT The Economic Importance of Adequate Aeronautical Telemetry Spectrum January 2007 Darrell E. Ernst Carolyn A. Kahn David L. Portigal Sponsor: TRMC Contract No.: WP15P7T-04-C-D199 Dept. No.: W800 Project No.: 0705D100-AA The views, opinions and/or findings contained in this report are those of Approved for public release; distribution unlimited. The MITRE Corporation and should not be construed as an official Case Number 07-0187 Government position, policy, or decision, unless designated by other documentation. © 2007 The MITRE Corporation. All Rights Reserved. Corporate Headquarters McLean, Virginia MITRE Department Approval: Francis M. Dello Russo Department Head, E523 MITRE Project Approval: Edward F. Gonzalez Project Leader, E524 ii Abstract The flight test community faces a crisis in that insufficient spectrum is available to support telemetering requirements. The amount of spectrum available for aeronautical telemetry (ATM) is inadequate today, and demand is growing exponentially. Vital to flight testing of aeronautical vehicles for both commercial and military application, ATM is used to transmit real-time data during flight tests. The availability of such data is integral to the productivity and safety of live flight test programs. This paper estimates the economic impact of inadequate telemetry spectrum access. The analysis is derived from probable future scenarios at a test range complex over a twenty year period. While based on a US test range complex, spectrum encroachment is an international issue as a result of increased commercial interest. Economic considerations are important to the proposal currently before the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), as Agenda Item 1.5 of the 2007 World Radio Conference (WRC), which calls for the allocation of additional spectrum for wideband ATM in the 3-30 Gigahertz (GHz) band. This study was requested by Mr. Derrick Hinton, who represents the Director, Test Resource Management Center (TRMC). KEYWORDS: Aeronautical Telemetry, ATM, Economic, Bandwidth, Bandwidth Demand Model, Economic Model, Range, Spectrum, Telemetering, Telemetry, Test, Wideband Telemetry, World Radio Conference, WRC iii Executive Summary The flight test community faces a crisis in that insufficient spectrum is available to support telemetering requirements. The amount of spectrum available for aeronautical telemetering is inadequate today, and demand is growing exponentially. Aeronautical telemetry is used to transmit real-time data during flight tests, and the availability of such data is integral to the productivity and safety of live flight test programs. Sufficient telemetry spectrum access is critical to maintaining rigorous system testing and meeting commercial and military flight test requirements. The Department of Defense is developing technological and regulatory solutions to help offset the spectrum shortfall. Technology research initiatives offer the prospect of increasing the bandwidth efficiency and, if they reach their intended capability, may partially offset telemetry spectrum demand until more spectrum access may be secured. A regulatory solution is currently proposed before the International Telecommunication Union as Agenda Item 1.5 of the 2007 World Radio Conference. This proposal calls for the allocation of additional spectrum for wideband aeronautical telemetry in the 3-30 Gigahertz band. There are economic implications associated with the potential outcomes of Agenda Item 1.5. The MITRE Corporation defined probable future scenarios at a test range complex, projected demand and supply of telemetry spectrum, and modeled the economic impacts of spectrum shortfalls. Potential future scenarios vary from no spectrum allocation change to significantly increased allocation of telemetry spectrum to meet needs over the next twenty years. In each case, technology development plays an important role. MITRE defined six future scenarios of telemetry spectrum supply, the baseline being the 215 Megahertz of current available spectrum and five alternatives reflecting World Radio Conference decision outcomes ranging from 0 to 650 Megahertz of spectrum augmentation. The six scenarios used for analyzing economic impact also define additional influences including the use of additional and new test resources and test impacts due to spectrum shortfall. Forecasts of future telemetry demand are based on current usage, statistical analysis of historic test range data, projections of test demand associated with new complex aeronautical development programs, and recent and planned technology developments. The study team built an economic model to estimate cost impacts of inadequate telemetry spectrum at a test range complex. Based on actual data from test ranges, expert interviews, and several previous reports, the model estimates component costs represented in each scenario. Programs incur significant costs – an estimated $60 million a year on a test range today – when tests must be delayed due to telemetry spectrum shortages. Test programs that are not able to obtain the spectrum access they need at their usual test facilities must find spectrum resources elsewhere. Lack of telemetry spectrum access may cause programs to reduce the number of test points collected during flight testing. This test point shedding may, in turn, lead to reduced quality of testing. At some point, failure to fully test results in catastrophes and fatalities. Inadequate testing is a major cost factor; based on a case v example, inadequate testing may cost almost $1.6 billion per incident. Costs to programs, development contractors, and the national economy can be huge when one also considers loss of competitive advantage from delay in marketing and sales of new commercial aircraft, or reduced military effectiveness from unavailability of more advanced aeronautic systems. Inadequate telemetry spectrum access also amplifies the need for investment in technology research and development. This offers the prospect of new methods to increase the efficiency of bandwidth utilization so real-time data can be transmitted as efficiently as possible. However, there is technical risk for technologies not yet proven, and research initiatives that do not reach their intended capability will not improve bandwidth utilization. The Integrated Network Enhanced Telemetry (iNET) project offers the prospect of a wireless network to supplement point-to-point telemetry capabilities. In addition to technology research and development, investment in test infrastructure may be required to utilize additional or new test resources. Use of additional test resources is only possible if there are alternative ranges available far enough away from existing ranges to allow for spectrum reuse. New test ranges are only possible at a huge expense, and thus are not realistic in the present environment due to the significant geographic, legal, environmental, political, and upfront investment hurdles. The economic model aggregates the cost impacts of inadequate telemetry spectrum at a test range complex over a twenty year period, from 2005 to 2025. For the defined scenarios, this cost varies from almost $23 billion in the worst case to over $1 billion in the best case. Projections of other scenarios fall within this range. In the year 2025, the worst case shows an annual cost of almost $3 billion and a spectrum shortfall of 977 Megahertz, whereas the best case shows an annual cost of under $58 million and a zero spectrum shortfall. The best case is the only scenario in which requirements for telemetry spectrum are met over the next twenty years. This study and its resulting economic model point to substantial cost impacts associated with telemetry spectrum shortfall. Operational and scheduling setbacks for flight testers seen daily at test ranges result in millions of dollars of added cost to the development or modification of aeronautical systems. The increasing complexity of these systems – driving the need for more extensive testing and integration with more test assets, advanced testing techniques requiring greater utilization of real-time video and high data rates, and shorter development cycles – are conclusively leading to an exponential growth in the demand for telemetry. While technology advances may mitigate some of the bandwidth shortfall, it is clear that spectrum augmentation is critical to closing the gap and reducing the costs identified in this study. It is important that the telemetry user and provider community protect and defend spectrum to ensure its future availability for aeronautical telemetering. The future use of spectrum must be carefully planned so it can adequately support commercial and government flight test missions. The World Radio Conference decision on telemetry spectrum augmentation is critical and will determine the nature of flight testing and impacts to this community far into the future. vi Acknowledgments The authors would like to acknowledge and thank the other individuals who contributed to this study. First and foremost, we would like to extend our sincere appreciation to those who shared their experiences, wisdom, and time with us. In particular, thanks to Tim Chalfant, Jim Zimmerman, Jeffrey Acurso, Michelle Caldera, Steve Cronk, Pat Feeley, Ed Garza, Paul Hashfield, Bob Jefferies, Paul Jonas, Charles Jones, Sid Jones, John Kellas, Steven Kuipers, Dan Laird, J. J. Littlefield, Dennis Madl, Steve O’Neal, Saul Ortigoza, Randy Scott, Bob Selbrede, Ronald Streich, George C. Tolis, Doug Warren, Gary D. Welty, and Vicky Yoshida. These individuals helped make this study possible. Further thanks to Craig Ernst, Jean-Claude Ghnassia, Bill Horne, and Mikel Ryan for their contributions. The authors would like to thank David Crawford, Frank Dello Russo, Ray Faulstich, Robert Giallombardo, Edward Gonzalez, Charles Lehan, Joe McMorrow, Barbara Moran, Andrew Wisdom, and Beverly Woodward for their insights and helpful reviews. Thanks to Janice Ballo for the materials and information contributed through her search efforts. Also, thank you to Rosemarie Mauriello for assistance in producing this document. vii viii Table of Contents 1.0 Introduction 1-1 1.1 Objective 1-1 1.2 Background 1-2 1.3 Problem 1-4 1.4 Study Methodology 1-6 1.5 Limitations and Constraints 1-8 1.6 Organization of Paper 1-9 2.0 Key Findings 2-1 3.0 Model Overview 3-1 4.0 Bandwidth Demand 4-1 4.1 Driving Factors of Demand 4-1 4.1.1 Factors Contributing to the ATM Spectrum Demand Growth 4-1 4.1.1.1 Increased System Complexity 4-1 4.1.1.2 Greater Use of High Definition Video 4-1 4.1.1.3 Larger Footprints 4-2 4.1.1.4 Shorter Acquisition Cycles 4-2 4.1.2 Factors with Potential to Offset ATM Spectrum Demand Growth Until More Spectrum Access Can Be Secured 4-3 4.1.2.1 Advanced Range Telemetry 4-6 4.1.2.2 Tier 1 Technology 4-7 4.1.2.3 Tier 2 Technology 4-7 4.1.2.4 Integrated Network Enhanced Telemetry 4-7 4.2 Bandwidth Demand Model 4-8 4.2.1 BDM Components 4-9 4.2.1.1 Derivation of FOG 4-9 4.2.1.2 Derivation of MAX USER 4-12 4.2.1.3 Total Demand 4-15 4.2.2 BDM Summary and Conclusion 4-17 ix 5.0 Probable Future Scenarios and Gap Analysis 5-1 5.1 Probable Future Scenarios 5-1 5.1.1 Demand Scenarios 5-1 5.1.1.1 Demand Assumptions and Baseline Case 5-1 5.1.1.1.1 Range Operations Base 5-1 5.1.1.1.2 Range Operations Factor 5-2 5.1.1.1.3 iNET Usage Factor 5-2 5.1.1.1.4 iNET Bandwidth Reduction Factor 5-2 5.1.1.1.5 Maximum User Factor 5-3 5.1.1.1.6 Tier 3 Toggle 5-3 5.1.1.2 Definition of Demand Cases 5-3 5.1.1.3 Demand Results and Sensitivity Analysis 5-4 5.1.2 Supply Scenarios 5-6 5.1.2.1 Supply Assumptions 5-6 5.1.2.1.1 Technology Adoption and Diffusion 5-7 5.1.2.1.2 Technology Diffusion Examples 5-7 5.1.2.1.2.1.1 Low Diffusion Example 5-7 5.1.2.1.2.1.2 Medium Diffusion Example 5-8 5.1.2.1.2.1.3 High Diffusion Example 5-8 5.1.2.1.2.1.4 Summary of Diffusion Examples 5-8 5.1.2.2 Supply Results 5-9 5.2 Gap Analysis 5-11 6.0 Economic Impacts 6-1 6.1 Technology Investments 6-1 6.1.1 ARTM 6-2 6.1.2 Tier 1 and 2 6-2 6.1.3 iNET 6-2 6.1.4 Extreme Frequency Bands 6-2 6.1.5 Other 6-3 x