Net Zero by 2050 A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector Net Zero by 2050 A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector Net Zero by 2050 Interactive iea.li/nzeroadmap Net Zero by 2050 Data iea.li/nzedata INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The IEA examines the IEA member IEA association full spectrum countries: countries: of energy issues including oil, gas and Australia Brazil coal supply and Austria China demand, renewable Belgium India energy technologies, Canada Indonesia electricity markets, Czech Republic Morocco energy efficiency, Denmark Singapore access to energy, Estonia South Africa demand side Finland Thailand management and France much more. Through Germany its work, the IEA Greece advocates policies Hungary that will enhance the Ireland reliability, affordability Italy and sustainability of Japan energy in its Korea 30 member Luxembourg countries, Mexico 8 association Netherlands countries and New Zealand beyond. Norway Poland Portugal Please note that this Slovak Republic publication is subject to Spain specific restrictions that limit Sweden its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are Switzerland available online at Turkey www.iea.org/t&c/ United Kingdom This publication and any map included herein are United States without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over The European any territory, to the delimitation of international Commission also frontiers and boundaries and participates in the to the name of any territory, work of the IEA city or area. Source: IEA. All rights reserved. International Energy Agency Website: www.iea.org Revised version, July 2021 (3rd revision) Information notice found at: www.iea.org/ corrections Foreword  We are approaching a decisive moment for international efforts to tackle the climate crisis – a great challenge of our times. The number of countries that have pledged to reach net‐zero emissions by mid‐century or soon after continues to grow, but so do global greenhouse gas emissions. This gap between rhetoric and action needs to close if we are to have a fighting chance of reaching net zero by 2050 and limiting the rise in global temperatures to 1.5 °C. Doing so requires nothing short of a total transformation of the energy systems that underpin our economies. We are in a critical year at the start of a critical decade for these efforts. The 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in November is the focal point for strengthening global ambitions and action on climate by building on the foundations of the 2015 Paris Agreement. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has been working hard to support the UK government’s COP26 Presidency to help make it the success the world needs. I was delighted to co‐host the IEA‐ COP26 Net Zero Summit with COP26 President Alok Sharma in March, where top energy and climate leaders from more than 40 countries highlighted the global momentum behind clean energy transitions. The discussions at that event fed into this special report, notably through the Seven Key Principles for Implementing Net Zero that the IEA presented at the Summit, which have been backed by 22 of our member governments to date. This report maps out how the global energy sector can reach net zero by 2050. I believe the report – Net Zero by 2050: A roadmap  for the global energy system – is one of the most important and challenging undertakings in the IEA’s history. The Roadmap is the culmination of the IEA’s pioneering work on energy data modelling, combining for the first time the complex models of our two flagship series, the World Energy Outlook and Energy Technology Perspectives. It will guide the IEA’s work and will be an integral part of both those series going forward. Despite the current gap between rhetoric and reality on emissions, our Roadmap shows that there are still pathways to reach net zero by 2050. The one on which we focus is – in our analysis – the most technically feasible, cost‐effective and socially acceptable. Even so, that pathway remains narrow and extremely challenging, requiring all stakeholders – governments, businesses, investors and citizens – to take action this year and every year after so that the goal does not slip out of reach. This report sets out clear milestones – more than 400 in total, spanning all sectors and technologies – for what needs to happen, and when, to transform the global economy from one dominated by fossil fuels into one powered predominantly by renewable energy like solar and wind. Our pathway requires vast amounts of investment, innovation, skilful policy design and implementation, technology deployment, infrastructure building, international co‐operation and efforts across many other areas. Since the IEA’s founding in 1974, one of its core missions has been to promote secure and affordable energy supplies to foster economic growth. This has remained a key concern of aonudr Rtohaed Imntaepr,n dartaiownianlg I nosnt istpueteci afol ar nAaplypsliise dca Srryisetde moust Awniathly tshise. IInt tsehronwatsio tnhaalt M thoen eetnaoryr mFuonuds All rights reserved. Foreword 3 A. E I challenge of transforming our energy systems is also a huge opportunity for our economies, with the potential to create millions of new jobs and boost economic growth. Another guiding principle of the Roadmap is that clean energy transitions must be fair and inclusive, leaving nobody behind. We have to ensure that developing economies receive the financing and technological know‐how they need to continue building their energy systems to meet the needs of their expanding populations and economies in a sustainable way. It is a moral imperative to bring electricity to the hundreds of millions of people who currently are deprived of access to it, the majority in of them in Africa. The transition to net zero is for and about people. It is paramount to remain aware that not every worker in the fossil fuel industry can ease into a clean energy job, so governments need to promote training and devote resources to facilitating new opportunities. Citizens must be active participants in the entire process, making them feel part of the transition and not simply subject to it. These themes are among those being explored by the Global Commission on People‐Centred Clean Energy Transitions, which I convened at the start of 2021 to examine how to enable citizens to benefit from the opportunities and navigate the disruptions of the shift to a clean energy economy. Headed by Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen of Denmark and composed of government leaders, ministers and prominent thinkers, the Global Commission will make public its key recommendations ahead of COP26 in November. The pathway laid out in our Roadmap is global in scope, but each country will need to design its own strategy, taking into account its specific circumstances. There is no one‐size‐fits‐all approach to clean energy transitions. Plans need to reflect countries’ differing stages of economic development: in our pathway, advanced economies reach net zero before developing economies do. As the world’s leading energy authority, the IEA stands ready to provide governments with support and advice as they design and implement their own roadmaps, and to encourage the international co‐operation across sectors that is so essential to reaching net zero by 2050. This landmark report would not have been possible without the extraordinary dedication of the IEA colleagues who have worked so tirelessly and rigorously on it. I would like to thank the entire team under the outstanding leadership of my colleagues Laura Cozzi and Timur Gül. The world has a huge challenge ahead of it to move net zero by 2050 from a narrow possibility to a practical reality. Global carbon dioxide emissions are already rebounding sharply as economies recover from last year’s pandemic‐induced shock. It is past time for governments to act, and act decisively to accelerate the clean energy transformation. As this report shows, we at the IEA are fully committed to leading those efforts. Dr Fatih Birol  Executive Director  International Energy Agency  4 International Energy Agency | Special Report Acknowledgements  This study, a cross‐agency effort, was prepared by the World Energy Outlook team and the Energy Technology Perspectives team. The study was designed and directed by Laura Cozzi, Chief Energy Modeller and Head of Division for Energy Demand Outlook, and Timur Gül, Head of Division for Energy Technology Policy. The lead authors and co‐ordinators were: Stéphanie Bouckaert, Araceli Fernandez Pales, Christophe McGlade, Uwe Remme and Brent Wanner. Laszlo Varro, Chief Economist, Davide D’Ambrosio and Thomas Spencer were also part of the core team. The other main authors were: Thibaut Abergel (buildings), Yasmine Arsalane (economic outlook, electricity), Praveen Bains (biofuels), Jose Miguel Bermudez Menendez (hydrogen),  Elizabeth Connelly (transport), Daniel Crow (behaviour), Amrita Dasgupta (innovation), Chiara Delmastro (buildings), Timothy Goodson (buildings, bioenergy), Alexandre Gouy (industry), Paul Hugues (industry), Lilly Lee (transport), Peter Levi (industry), Hana Mandova (industry), Ariane Millot (buildings), Paweł Olejarnik (fossil fuel supply), Leonardo Paoli (innovation, transport), Faidon Papadimoulis (data management), Sebastian Papapanagiotou (electricity networks), Francesco Pavan (hydrogen), Apostolos Petropoulos (transport), Ryszard Pośpiech (data management), Leonie Staas (behaviour, industry), Jacopo Tattini (transport), Jacob Teter (transport), Gianluca Tonolo (energy access), Tiffany Vass (industry) and Daniel Wetzel (jobs). Other contributors were: Lucila Arboleya Sarazola, Simon Bennett, Cyril Cassisa, Arthur Contejean, Musa Erdogan, Enrique Gutierrez Tavarez, Taku Hasegawa, Shai Hassid, Zoe Hungerford, Tae‐Yoon Kim, Vanessa Koh, Luca Lo Re, Christopher Lowans, Raimund Malischek, Mariachiara Polisena and Per Anders Widell. Caroline Abettan, Teresa Coon, Marina Dos Santos, Marie Fournier‐S’niehotta, Reka Koczka and Diana Louis provided essential support. Edmund Hosker carried editorial responsibility and Debra Justus was the copy‐editor. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in particular Benjamin Hunt, Florence Jaumotte, Jared Thomas Bebee and Susanna Mursula, partnered with the IEA to provide the macroeconomic analysis. The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), in particular Peter Rafaj, Gregor Kiesewetter, Wolfgang Schöpp, Chris Heyes, Zbigniew Klimont, Pallav Purohit, Laura Warnecke, Binh Nguyen, Nicklas Forsell, Stefan Frank, Petr Havlik and Mykola Gusti, partnered with the IEA to provide analysis and related indicators on air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions from land use. Valuable comments and feedback were provided by other senior management and numerous other colleagues within the International Energy Agency. In particular Keisuke Sadamori, Mechthild Wörsdörfer, Amos Bromhead, Dan Dorner, Nick Johnstone, Pascal Laffont, Toril Bosoni, Peter Fraser, Paolo Frankl, Tim Gould, Tom Howes, Brian Motherway, Aad van Bohemen, César Alejandro Hernández, Samantha McCulloch, Sara Moarif, Heymi Bahar, Adam Baylin‐Stern, Niels Berghout, Sara Budinis, SJeteafna‐nB aLpotriestnec zDiku.b reuil, Carlos Fernández Alvarez, Ilkka Hannula , Jeremy Moorhouse and All rights reserved. Acknowledgements 5 A. E I Valuable input to the analysis was provided by: Trevor Morgan (independent consultant) and David Wilkinson (independent consultant). Thanks go to the IEA Communications and Digital Office (CDO), particularly to Jad Mouawad, Head of CDO, and to Astrid Dumond, Jon Custer, Tanya Dyhin, Merve Erdil, Grace Gordon, Christopher Gully, Jethro Mullen, Julie Puech, Rob Stone, Gregory Viscusi, Therese Walsh and Wonjik Yang for their help in producing and promoting the report and website materials. Finally, thanks to Ivo Letra of the IEA Information Systems Unit for his essential support in the production process, and to the IEA’s Office of Legal Counsel, Office of Management and Administration, and Energy Data Centre for the assistance each provided throughout the preparation of this report. Peer reviewers  Many senior government officials and international experts provided input and reviewed preliminary drafts of the report. Their comments and suggestions were of great value. They include: Aimee Aguilar Jaber Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD) Keigo Akimoto Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth, Japan Doug Arent National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), United States Daniel Balog Permanent Delegation of Hungary to the OECD Georg Bäuml Volkswagen Harmeet Bawa Hitachi ABB Power Grids Pete Betts Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, United Kingdom Sama Bilbao y Leon World Nuclear Association Diane Cameron Nuclear Energy Agency Rebecca Collyer European Climate Foundation Russell Conklin US Department of Energy François Dassa EDF Jelte de Jong Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy, The Netherlands Carl de Maré ArcelorMittal Guillaume De Smedt Air Liquide Agustin Delgado Iberdrola Johanna Fiksdahl Permanent Delegation of Norway to the OECD Alan Finkel Special Advisor to the Australian Government on Low Emissions Technology Niklas Forsell International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) James Foster UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Hiroyuki Fukui Toyota Rosanna Fusco Eni Li Gao Ministry of Ecology and Environment of the People’s Republic of China 6 International Energy Agency | Special Report François Gautier Permanent Delegation of France to the OECD Oliver Geden German Institute for International and Security Affairs Dolf Gielen International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) Francesca Gostinelli Enel Jae H. Jung Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Korea Michael Hackethal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Industry, Germany Peter Wood Shell Selwin Hart United Nations David Hawkings Natural Resources Defense Council Jacob Herbers US Department of Energy Takashi Hongo Mitsui & Co. Global Strategic Studies Institute, Japan Christina Hood Compass Climate, New Zealand Michael Kelly World LPG Association Sir David King Cambridge University Ken Koyama The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan Fabien Kreuzer DG Energy, European Commission Joyce Lee Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) Chen Linhao Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China Todd Litman Victoria Transport Policy Institute, Canada Claude Lorea Global Cement and Concrete Association Ritu Mathur The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) Vincent Minier Schneider Electric Steve Nadel American Council for an Energy‐Efficient Economy Stefan Nowak Technology Collaboration Programme on Photovoltaic Power Systems (PVPS TCP) Brian Ó Gallachóir MaREI, SFI Research Centre for Energy, Climate and Marine, University College Cork Henri Paillère International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Yongduk Pak Korea Energy Economics Institute (KEEI) Alessandra Pastorelli Permanent Delegation of Italy to the OECD Jonathan Pershing US State Department Glen Peters Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO) Stephanie Pfeifer Institutional Investors Group on Climate Change (IIGCC) Cédric Philibert Independent consultant Lynn Price Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, United States Andrew Purvis World Steel Julia Reinaud Breakthrough Energy Yamina Saheb OpenEXP Ignacio Santelices Sustainable Energy Agency, Chile Andreas Schäfer University College London Vivian Scott The University of Edinburgh Acknowledgements 7 Simon Sharpe Cabinet Office, United Kingdom Adnan Shihab Eldin Formerly Kuwait Foundation for the Advancement of Sciences Toshiyuki Shirai Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan Adam Sieminski KAPSARC Stephan Singer Climate Action Network Varun Sivaram US State Department Jim Skea Imperial College London Jeff Stehm Task Force on Climate‐Related Financial Disclosures Jonathan Stern Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Wim Thomas Independent consultant David Turk US Department of Energy Fritjof Unander Research Council of Norway Rob van der Meer The European Cement Association (CEMBUREAU) Noé van Hulst International Partnership for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells in the Economy Tom van Ierland DG for Climate Action, European Commission David Victor University of California, San Diego Amanda Wilson Natural Resources Canada Harald Winkler University of Cape Town Markus Wolf Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), United States Markus Wråke Swedish Energy Research Centre William Zimmern BP The individuals and organisations that contributed to this study are not responsible for any opinions or judgments it contains. All errors and omissions are solely the responsibility of the IEA. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. Comments and questions are welcome and should be addressed to:  Laura Cozzi and Timur Gül Directorate of Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks International Energy Agency 9, rue de la Fédération 75739 Paris Cedex 15 France E‐mail: [email protected] Web: www.iea.org 8 International Energy Agency | Special Report Table of Contents  Foreword........................................................................................................................... 3  Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................... 5  Executive summary ......................................................................................................... 13  1  Announced net zero pledges and the energy sector  29  1.1 Introduction ................................................................................................... 30 1.2 Emissions reduction targets and net zero pledges ........................................ 31 1.2.1 Nationally Determined Contributions ............................................... 31 1.2.2 Net‐zero emissions pledges ............................................................... 32 1.3 Outlook for emissions and energy in the STEPS ............................................ 36 1.3.1 CO emissions .................................................................................... 36 2 1.3.2 Total energy supply, total final consumption and electricity generation ......................................................................................... 37 1.3.3 Emissions from existing assets .......................................................... 39 1.4 Announced Pledges Case ............................................................................... 40 1.4.1 CO emissions .................................................................................... 41 2 1.4.2 Total energy supply ........................................................................... 43 1.4.3 Total final consumption ..................................................................... 44 1.4.4 Electricity generation ......................................................................... 45 2  A global pathway to net‐zero CO₂ emissions in 2050  47  2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................... 48 2.2 Scenario design .............................................................................................. 48 2.2.1 Population and GDP ........................................................................... 50 2.2.2 Energy and CO prices ........................................................................ 51 2 2.3 CO emissions ................................................................................................ 53 2 2.4 Total energy supply and total final consumption .......................................... 56 2.4.1 Total energy supply ........................................................................... 56 2.4.2 Total final consumption ..................................................................... 60 2.5 Key pillars of decarbonisation ....................................................................... 64 2.5.1 Energy efficiency ................................................................................ 65 2.5.2 Behavioural change ........................................................................... 67 2.5.3 Electrification ..................................................................................... 70 All rights reserved. Table of Contents 9 A. E I