THE DYNAMICS OF THE COMPUTER INDUSTRY: Modeling the Supply of Workstations And their Components THE DYNAMICS OF THE COMPUTER INDUSTRY: Modeling the Supply of Workstations And their Components WALID RACHID TOUMA, Ph.D . ..... " SPRINGER SCIENCE+BUSINESS MEDIA, LLC Librm'Y of Congress Cataloging-In-Publicatlon Data Touma, Walid Raehid. The dynamics of the computer industry : model ing the supply ofworkstations and their eomponents I by Walid Raehid Touma. p. em. Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Texas at Austin, 1992. Includes bibliographieal references and index. ISBN 978-94-010-4974-0 ISBN 978-94-011-2198-9 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-94-011-2198-9 1. Computer industry--Mathematieal models. r. Title. HD9696.C62T67 1993 338.4'7004--de20 93-9419 CIP Copyright © 1993 by Springer Science+Business Media New York Originally published by Kluwer Academic Publishers in 1993 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1s t edition 1993 AII rights reserved. No part ofthis publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form orby any means, mechanical, photo-copying, record ing, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher, Springer Science+ Business Media, LLC. Printed on acid-free paper. To the WAR CHILD. Contents List of Figures xi List of Tables xiii About the Author xv Foreword xvii Preface xix Acknowledgments xxi 1 Introd uction 1 1.1 Problem Statement . 1 1.2 Computer Technologies ....... . 1 1.3 Computer Systems and Workstations. 2 1.4 Contributions ..... 4 1.5 Key Findings . . . . . 4 1.6 Outline and Summary 6 2 Definitions, Terminology, and Concepts 7 2.1 The Workstation ............ . 7 2.1.1 The Birth of the Workstation .. 8 2.1.2 The Workstation and Its Components 9 2.1.3 The Workstation and Its Attributes 13 2.1.4 Workstation Performance ...... . 13 2.2 Semiconductor lCs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 2.2.1 Semiconductor Physical Characteristics 19 viii CONTENTS 2.2.2 pn-Junction ............... . 20 2.2.3 Transistor Fabrication Technologies .. 20 2.2.4 High-Speed IC Technologies . . . . 23 2.2.5 ICs: Speed Versus Die Area . . . . 25 2.2.6 Reliability of Computer Systems 26 2.3 Magnetic Hard Disks . . . . . . . . . 26 2.3.1 Computer Storage System . . . . 27 2.3.2 Magnetic Storage Technology . . 27 2.3.3 Magnetic Hard Disk Components . 28 2.3.4 Magnetic Hard Disk Performance. 34 2.3.5 Concluding Remarks . . . 36 2.4 Color CRT Displays ........... . 37 2.4.1 CRT History .......... . 37 2.4.2 Competing Display Technologies 38 2.4.3 Color CRT Components 39 2.4.4 Screen Image . . . . . . 44 2.4.5 CRT Bandwidth . . . . 45 2.4.6 CRT Hardware Drivers 46 2.4.7 CRT Resolution ... 46 2.4.8 Concluding Remarks . 48 2.5 UNIX Operating System . . . 49 2.5.1 UNIX History. . . . . 49 2.5.2 UNIX Design Structure 50 2.5.3 Stepping Through a UNIX Command . 52 2.5.4 Main UNIX Managed Functions 52 2.5.5 Concluding Remarks . . . . . . . . . . . 54 3 Workstation Supply Models 55 3.1 Simulation Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 3.1.1 The Simulation Modeling Approach 55 3.1.2 Relational Diagrams and Attributes 57 3.2 ICs Supply Model: Microprocessors and DRAMs 61 3.2.1 Historical Data on the Physical Characteristics of ICs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 61 3.2.2 Historical Data on ICs Capabilities and Price Trends 70 3.2.3 Model Assumptions and Terminology 78 3.2.4 CPU Speed and MIPS Models .. 80 3.2.5 DRAM Capacity Model ..... . 82 3.2.6 Die Areas for Fixed Capability ICs 83 CONTENTS ix 3.2.7 IC Cost Model .................... 84 3.3 Magnetic Hard Disk Supply Model ............. 91 3.3.1 Historical Data on the Physical Characteristics of Magnetic Hard Disks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92 3.3.2 Historical Data on Magnetic Hard Disk Capabili- ties and Price Trends ......... 96 3.3.3 Model Assumptions and Terminology 100 ..... 3.3.4 Magnetic Storage Radius 102 3.3.5 N umber of Disk Recording Tracks 102 3.3.6 Track Capacity and Density . 103 3.3.7 Hard Disk Data Rate ....... 104 3.3.8 Areal Capacity and Density . . . . 106 3.3.9 Volumetric Capacity and Density . 106 3.3.10 Magnetic Hard Disk Cost per Megabyte 106 3.3.11 Magnetic Hard Disk Total Cost . . . . . 109 3.4 Color CRT Display Supply Model. . . . . . . . 109 3.4.1 Historical Data on the Physical Characteristics of ................. Color CRT Displays 110 3.4.2 Historical Data on Color CRT Display Capabilities and Price Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . 113 3.4.3 Model Assumptions and Terminology 115 3.4.4 Bandwidth ............... 117 3.4.5 Resolution................ 117 3.4.6 Metal Shadow Mask Manufacturing Yield 120 3.4.7 Color CRT Display Cost. . . . . . . . . . 121 3.5 UNIX Operating System Supply Model ..... 124 3.5.1 UNIX Development-from-Scratch and Porting Trends 124 3.5.2 Model Assumptions and Terminology ..... 126 3.5.3 UNIX Development-from-Scratch Time Period 128 3.5.4 UNIX Porting Time Period . . . . . . . 129 3.5.5 Software Attributes Index . . . . . . . . . . .. 130 3.5.6 Workstation Hardware Attributes Index . . .. 130 3.5.7 UNIX Development-from-Scratch and Porting Costs132 3.6 Workstation Assembly Model . . . . . . . . . 133 3.6.1 Assembly Steps. . . . . . . . . . . . . 136 3.6.2 Model Assumptions and Terminology 136 3.6.3 Model Formulation . . . . . . . . . . . 137 x CONTENTS 4 Model Behavior and Sensitivity Results 141 4.1 Component Cost, Single Unit Price, and Bulk Price 143 4.2 Component Supply Model Inputs . . . . . . . . . . . 143 4.2.1 Model Input Parameters. . . . . . . . . . . . 144 4.2.2 Components' Physical Characteristics Trends 145 4.2.3 Components' Capabilities and Price Trends 145 4.3 ICs: Model Results and Actual Market Data .... 146 4.3.1 ICs Die Yields ................. 146 4.3.2 ICs: CISC CPUs Model Results and Actual Mar- ket Data ........................ 147 4.3.3 ICs: RISC CPUs Model Results and Actual Mar- ket Data. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149 4.3.4 ICs: DRAMs Model Results and Actual Market Data .......................... 151 4.4 Magnetic Storage: Model Results and Actual Market Data 156 4.4.1 Magnetic Hard Disk Price per Megabyte. . . 156 4.4.2 Magnetic Hard Disk Areal Density ......... 156 4.4.3 Notes on Volumetric Density and Data Rate ... 158 4.5 Color CRT Display: Model Results and Actual Market Data159 4.5.1 Color CRT Price per Megapixel . . . . . 159 4.5.2 Color CRT Number of Pixels per Inch . 160 4.6 UNIX: Model Results and Actual Market Data 161 4.6.1 UNIX Porting Times and Costs. . . . . 161 4.6.2 UNIX Development-from-Scratch Time and Cost 161 4.7 Workstation Assembly Model: Inputs and Projected Results 164 4.7.1 Projected Results. . . . . . . . 165 4.8 Sensitivity Analyses ..................... 167 4.8.1 Sensitivity to the Feature Size ............ 169 4.8.2 Sensitivity to the Number of Silicon Wafer Defects per Unit Area. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181 5 Conclusions and Suggestions for Future Research 187 5.1 Suggestions for Future Research. 189 5.2 Final Comments .................... . 190 References 193 Index 203 List of Figures 1.1 Computer classes versus user environment .. 3 2.1 General computer system configuration. . . 10 2.2 npn bipolar transistor configuration. ... . 21 2.3 Enhancement type NMOS transistor configuration. 22 2.4 CMOS inverter configuration. 23 2.5 Rigid disk file components. . 29 2.6 Magnetic disk surface layout. 31 2.7 Inductive head structure. .. 32 2.8 CRT display components. . . 39 2.9 Inner screen phosphors layout structures. 43 2.10 UNIX layer structure. ........ 51 3.1 illustration of a relational diagram. . 57 3.2 Die sizes of CISC CPUs and DRAMs versus time. 63 3.3 Feature size versus time. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 3.4 Silicon wafer diameter versus time. . . . . . . . . . 69 3.5 Actual data on the number of instructions per cycle for Intel and Motorola CISC CPUs. .............. 75 3.6 Actual data on the number of instructions per cycle for HP-PA and Sun SPARC RISC CPUs. ......... 76 3.7 Relational diagram of the operational speed of CPUs. 80 3.8 Relational diagram of the DRAM capacity. ...... 83 3.9 Relational diagram of the average IC die testing time. 88 3.10 DASD recording system scaling. ............ 93 3.11 Actual price per megabyte of magnetic hard disk storage versus time. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 97 xii LIST OF FIGURES 3.12 Areal densities of magnetic storage devices in bits per mm2 versus time. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 99 3.13 illustration of the dimensional parameters of a magnetic hard disk. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103 3.14 Relational diagram of the cost per megabyte of a magnetic hard disk. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107 3.15 Relational diagram of the number of pixels per inch of a color CRT display. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118 3.16 Relational diagram of the cost per megapixel of a color CRT display. ......................... 122 3.17 Relational diagram ofthe UNIX development-from-scratch time period. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128 3.18 Relational diagram of the UNIX porting time period. . . . 130 3.19 Relational diagram of the workstation hardware attributes. 132 3.20 illustration of a workstation assembly network. . . . . 135 4.1 Present value prices of workstations: types 1, 2, and 3. 166 4.2 Feature size: sensitivity of the price per megaHertz of CPUs - cases 1, 2, and 3. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171 4.3 Feature size: sensitivity of the price per megabyte of DRAMs - cases 1, 2, and 3. ......... . . . . . . . . . . . . 173 4.4 Feature size: sensitivity of the price per megabyte of magnetic hard disks - cases 1, 2, and 3. . . . . . . . . . . . 175 4.5 Feature size: sensitivity of the price of a 19-inch color CRT display - cases 1, 2, and 3. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176 4.6 Feature size: sensitivity of the present value price of a type 2 workstation - cases 1, 2, and 3. .......... 178 4.7 Feature Size: Sensitivity of the DRAM and the magnetic hard disk prices per megabyte - cases 1 and 3. . . . . . . 180 4.8 DPUA: sensitivity of the price per megaHertz of CPUs - cases 1, 2, and 3. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184 4.9 DPUA: sensitivity of the price per megabyte of DRAMs - cases 1, 2, and 3. ..................... 185