2013 Meeting of the Population Association of America Session S107 : Fertility Transitions across Space and Time The Diffusion of New Fertility Behaviours in Algeria: Geographical Changes Observed between 1987, 1998 and 2008 censuses Zahia Ouadah-Bedidi, Jacques Vallin and Amar Ouali Unité de recherche Migrations et sociétés (URMIS), Université Paris Diderot Institut national d’études démographiques (INED), Paris Direction de la population, Ministère de la santé, Alger Total fertility rate: from 8 to 2 within 30 years TFR (children per woman) 10 In Algeria, Fertility rate Vital statistics, corrected fell dramatically from ENSP-1970 N & N Estimated from the mid 1970s to the 8 GFR 1966 census end of the 1990s. Vital statistics, corrected Then, it increased ENAF 1986 6 Vital statistics, during the last decade. raw data We are interested here ONS estimates PAPCHILD 1992 in the decrease: how it 4 2008 census diffused over all the 1998 census country? ONS estimates 2 Surveys Censuses MICS3 2006 PAPFAM 2002 Vital statistics raw data Vital statistics corrected for under-recording Vital statisitics, etimated from GFR Navelet & Nizard 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 A first idea is given by comparing urban an rural areas Total fertility rate 9 8 7 Rural 6 5 Urban 4 3 2 1 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Cities started but rural areas caught them up very soon Age specific fertility rates At the beginnig, the shape of fertility curev changes more dramatically in cities but soon after, rural areas filled the gap Age specific fertility rate (p 1000) Age specific fertility rate (p 1000) 400 400 Urban Rural 1970 1970 1986 300 300 1986 1992 200 1992 200 1998 22000088 2008 100 100 1998 2006 2006 0 0 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Âge It has been shown that, in Algeria, the first way to reduce fertility has been the rise in female age at first marriage. Three questions • 1. How fertility decline diffused over the whole Algerian territory? • 2. Did increase in mean age at marriage, the first way of the fertility control, do the same? • 3. Is there a geographical relation between fertility decline and female mean age at marriage rise? I. Fertility decline • 1. Geographical differences in total fertility rate: at « commune » level data are available for a too recent period only (1998-2008, while fertility stopped to decline and rose) • 2. Parity at age 35-39 may serve as a good proxy to investigate previous period of decline 1. The recent fertility rise 1998-2008 11999988 Total fertility rate By wilayates 22000088 All Algeria 1998 Total fertility rate By wilayates 2008 Northern part of Algeria 1998 Total fertitlity rate By communes 2008 All Algeria