THCEAUS ES OFWAR By the same author THE PEAKS OF LYELL A CENTENARY HISTORY OF THE UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE GOLD AND PAPER MINES IN THE SPINIFEX THE RUSH THAT NEVER ENDED THE TYRANNY OF DISTANCE ACROSS A RED WORLD THE RISE OF BROKEN HILL THE STEEL MASTER TRIUMPH OF THE NOMADS A LAND HALF WON THE BLAINEY VIEW OUR SIDE OF THE COUNTRY ALL FOR AUSTRALIA THE GREAT SEESAW THCAUSEE S OFWAR Geoffrey Blainey ThiErddi tion l�I THE FREE PRESS NEWYORK THE FREE PRESS A Division of Simon & Schuster Inc. 1230 Avenue oft he Americas New York, N.Y. 10020 Copyright© 1973, 1977, 1988 by Geoffrey Blainey All rights reserved, including the right ofreproduction in whole or in part in any form. THE FREE PRESS and colophon are trademarks ofS imon & Schuster Inc. Manufactured in the United States ofA merica 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Blainey, Geoffrey. The causes of war/Geoffrey Blainey.-3rd ed., 1st American ed. p. m. Bibliography: p. Includes index. ISBN 0--02---903592-g. ISBN 0--02-go3591-o (pbk.) 1. War. 2. Military history, Modern-20th century. I. Title U21.2.B53 1988 88-6893 355'.027---dc19 CIP Contents Preface to the Third Edition vu Preface to the First Edition lX Book One: The Mystery of Peace 1 The Peace that Passeth Understanding 3 2 Paradise is a Bazaar 18 Book Two: The Web of War 3 Dreams and Delusions of a Coming War 35 4 While Waterbirds Fight 57 5 Death-Watch and Scapegoat Wars 68 6 WarC hests and Pulse Beats 87 7 ACalendarofWar 97 8 The Abacus of Power 108 Book Three: The Elusive Warmongers g War as an Accident 10 Aims and Arms 11 A Day that Lives in Infamy Book Four: The Varieties of War 12 Vendetta of the Black Sea 177 13 LongWars 186 14 And Shorter Wars 206 15 TheMysteryofWideWars 228 16 Australia's Pacific War 243 Conclusions 1 7 Myths of the Nuclear Era 18 War, Peace and Neutrality Abbreviations Notes Select Bibliography 3I I Index 321 Preface to the Third Edition In the decade and a half since this book was published it seems to have become one of the more widely quoted books on the causes of war and peace. I have learnt much from the discussion. I especially accept the criticism that the book, while offering few direct comments on nuclear war, assumed that the causes of war remained basically the same since the era of cavalry. It is still my belief that the causes of war and even the nature of war have not yet been drastically altered by the advent of nuclear weapons. In a new chapter at the end of the book I argue rather than, as before, beg my conclusion that in international relations there is more continuity than chasm in the years since 1945. On the other hand I have retreated from my earlier opinion about the likely duration of a nuclear war of the future. In the first edition I maintained too emphatically that 'in the era of nuclear weapons a general war -if it occurs - will probably be a long war'. While I still see a long nuclear war as possible I do not think that, on existing evidence, it is more likely to be long than short: both a long and short nuclear war are possible. Some critics of the first edition of this book had argued that Japan's conduct and expectations on the eve of Pearl Harbor in 1941, might well defy one of the main conclusions and therefore the whole scaffolding of my argument. Similarly Australia's and Britain's expectations on the eve of the fall of Singapore in 1942 were said by some to contradict my argument about the causes of war. Accordingly I looked closely at these events, and, to meet the criticism, wrote a detailed story leading up to the outbreak of the Pacific war, as seen from the eyes of japan and one of her ultimate opponents, Australia. That story appeared in an Australian paperback edition of the book published in 1977: a slightly shortened version appears in this edition as chapter 16. The argument of this book depends on its dovetailed conclusions. Like the scaffolding of a building it needs only one Vlll Preface to the Third Edition major piece of timber to break loose or topple, and the whole edifice falls. I believe the edifice remains intact; and that chapter 16 on the outbreak of the Pacific War and chapter 17 on the nuclear era both fit into the scaffolding of the original edition. Geoffrey Blainey Universiry of Melbourne June 1987