The Bush Administrations and Saddam Hussein This page intentionally left blank The Bush Administrations and Saddam Hussein Deciding on Conflict Alex Roberto Hybel and Justin Matthew Kaufman THEBUSHADMINISTRATIONSANDSADDAMHUSSEIN Copyright © Alex Roberto Hybel,2006. Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2006 978-1-4039-7578-2 All rights reserved. First published in hardcover in 2006 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN® in the United States—a division of St.Martin’s Press LLC,175 Fifth Avenue, New York,NY 10010. Where this book is distributed in the UK,Europe and the rest of the world, this is by Palgrave Macmillan,a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England,company number 785998,of Houndmills, Basingstoke,Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom,Europe and other countries. ISBN 978-1-137-32092-6 ISBN 978-0-230-60114-7 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/9780230601147 The Library of Congress has cataloged the hardcover edition as follows: Hybel,Alex Roberto The Bush administrations and Saddam Hussein :deciding on conflict / by Alex Roberto Hybel and Matthew. p.cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. 1.United States––Foreign relations––Iraq.2.Iraq––Foreign relations––United States.3.United States––Foreign relations––1989– 4.United States––Military policy.5.Bush,George,1924– 6.Bush,George W.(George Walker),1946– 7.Hussein,Saddam, 1937– 8.Persian Gulf War,1991.9.Iraq War,2003– I.Title. E183.8.I57H93 2006 956.7044(cid:2)32––dc22 2006046013 A catalogue record of the book is available from the British Library. Design by Newgen Imaging Systems (P) Ltd.,Chennai,India. First PALGRAVE MACMILLAN paperback edition:March 2013 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 To Barbara Peurifoy, David, Karen, and Hanna Kaufman, and Jeremy Whyman This page intentionally left blank Contents Acknowledgments to the Second Edition ix Foreword by Ronald Steel xiii Preface to the Paperback Edition xvii Introduction Two Surprises, Two Wars, Two Presidents, One Family 1 Chapter One Alternative Theories of Foreign Policy-Making 9 Chapter Two Two Harmful Surprises 19 Chapter Three The Logic of Surprise versus the Logic of Surprise Avoidance 47 Chapter Four Two Very Different Wars 63 Chapter Five The Apple Sometimes Falls Close to the Tree 109 Chapter Six The Absence of a Rational Process 145 Chapter Seven Be Careful What You Hope For: The Consequences of Invading Iraq 155 Notes 177 Bibliography 205 Index 213 This page intentionally left blank Acknowledgments to the Second Edition My research informs my teaching, but it is through teaching that I often discern what I do not know. As a result, teaching has on more than one occasion dictated my research agenda. It is in the classroom that I am repeatedly rewarded by the discovery of students with tremendous intellectual capacity and energy, waiting to encounter someone who will take them seriously and provide them with the opportunity to excel. It was after being exposed to Justin Matthew Kaufman’s work in one of my seminars that I realized that he was such a student. And that is how our research partnership started. Throughout the production of the first edition Justin was the novice; when we put together the second one, he was an equal partner. Our work benefited from the research work and comments by a number of people. A few of them deserve special mention. Cassandra Lynn Waters, a Connecticut College alum, spent an entire semester looking into the foreign policy-making literature and summarizing some of the relevant findings. Stuart Vyse, Ronald Steel, William Rose, and the anonymous reviewers provided helpful suggestions. Students in my US Foreign Policy classes alerted me to a number of mistakes and inconsistencies in earlier drafts. They know who they are. Of no lesser value is Alexander L. George’s contribution. Alex never read the manuscript, nor did he know that Justin and I were working on it; still, though some 29 years have gone by since he served as the director of my dissertation, his approach to the analysis of foreign policy-making remains deeply embedded in my mind. To all of them, many thanks.