The Art of War in the Network Age Intellectual Technologies Set coordinated by Jean-Max Noyer and Maryse Carmes Volume 1 The Art of War in the Network Age Back to the Future Joseph Henrotin First published 2016 in Great Britain and the United States by ISTE Ltd and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, this publication may only be reproduced, stored or transmitted, in any form or by any means, with the prior permission in writing of the publishers, or in the case of reprographic reproduction in accordance with the terms and licenses issued by the CLA. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside these terms should be sent to the publishers at the undermentioned address: ISTE Ltd John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 27-37 St George’s Road 111 River Street London SW19 4EU Hoboken, NJ 07030 UK USA www.iste.co.uk www.wiley.com © ISTE Ltd 2016 The rights of Joseph Henrotin to be identified as the author of this work have been asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. Library of Congress Control Number: 2016946873 British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data A CIP record for this book is available from the British Library ISBN 978-1-84821-912-0 Contents Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix Chapter 1. Approaching Military Revolutions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1.1. Lexical varieties . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 1.1.1. MTR versus RMA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 1.1.2. Military revolutions versus RMAs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 1.1.3. Reassessing the notion of military revolution . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 1.1.4. An incomplete RMA? From revolution to transformation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 1.2. Types of RMA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 1.2.1. An example of techno-centric classification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 1.2.2. Unlikely revolutions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 1.2.3. Cohen and the “revolutionary types” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 1.2.4. RMA schools at the turn of the millennium . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Chapter 2. The Epistemology of RMA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 2.1. Longue durée, conjoncture and event history … outdated? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 2.2. RMA as a result of a long-term evolution? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 2.2.1. From evolutionary to revolutionary longue durée . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 2.2.2. The eternal moment of changing epochs: RMA and postmodernity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 2.2.3. An overused post-modernity, an assumed post-industrialism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 2.2.4. The building of a revolution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 vi The Art of War in the Network Age 2.3. Confronting the distinctive aspects of military revolutions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 2.3.1. An anhistorical RMA? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 2.3.2. Breaks and discontinuities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 Chapter 3. A Paradigm Shift . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 3.1. A strategic consensus around the “paradigm shift” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 3.1.1. Paradigm pluralities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 3.1.2. The place of politics: scientific-rational and historical paradigms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 3.1.3. The question of levels of engagement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 3.1.4. A rethinking of strategy as an art . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 3.2. Strategy of means and RMA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 3.2.1. A hidden revolution? RMA and genetic strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 3.2.2. A failed revolution? RMA and industrial strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 Chapter 4. Understanding (1): Piercing the Fog of War in Fluid Spaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 4.1. Strategy of fluid spaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 4.1.1. The fluid and the solid . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 4.1.2. SAGE, the first network-centric system . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 4.2. Fluidifying global spaces? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85 4.2.1. Figures of the fluidification of aerospatial spaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 4.2.2. Fluidification by reticulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 4.2.3. Operating in mixed spaces: generating political effect . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92 Chapter 5. Understanding (2): Fluidifying the Solid? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 5.1. The electronic battlefield . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 5.1.1. The Vietnam War . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 5.1.2. The European model of the RMA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 5.2. The fragmentation of intelligence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110 5.2.1. Fragmenting and network-centering . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110 5.2.2. The network-centric man . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114 5.2.3. Uncertainty and new armies of the old regime . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 Contents vii Chapter 6. Waging War in Network-centric Conditions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 6.1. The kinematics of operations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 6.1.1. On the conquest of time: chronostrategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128 6.1.2. War and movement, war and command . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134 6.1.3. Controlling and dominating . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138 6.2. Waging war in networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142 6.2.1. The paradox of the enemy: the (non-) responses to asymmetry and hybrid warfare . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142 6.2.2. Future wars and wars in networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145 6.2.3. Principles of war in the age of networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148 Chapter 7. Striking in Network-centric Conditions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155 7.1. A paradoxical precision . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156 7.1.1. Certainty of striking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157 7.1.2. Certain to succeed? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161 7.1.3. Wars lost by precision? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164 7.2. The retaliation against the Transformation: techno-guerillas and hybrid war . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167 7.2.1. The state incubator . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168 7.2.2. The true RMA and the future of war? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172 7.2.3. Adaptation by networks? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183 Glossary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187 Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191 Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217