T H E A R C T I C IN THE ANTHROPOCENE EMERGING RESEARCH QUESTIONS Committee on Emerging Research Questions in the Arctic Polar Research Board Division on Earth and Life Studies The Arctic in the Anthropocene: Emerging Research Questions THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS • 500 Fifth Street, NW • Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special compe- tences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by the U.S. Arctic Research Commission, the Department of Energy under award number DE-SC0008724; the National Aeronautics and Space Administration un- der award number NNX13A014G; the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under award number WC133R-11-CQ-0048, TO#4; the National Science Foundation under award number ARC-1243485; and the Smithsonian Institution under award number 12-PO-590- 0000254005. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsoring agencies or any of their sub agencies. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-30183-1 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-30183-1 Library of Congress Control Number: 2014944501 Additional copies of this report are available for sale from The National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; Internet, http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2014 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Cover image courtesy of NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. The Arctic in the Anthropocene: Emerging Research Questions The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distin- guished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president of the National Academy of Engineering. 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Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing ser- vices to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. The Arctic in the Anthropocene: Emerging Research Questions Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. The Arctic in the Anthropocene: Emerging Research Questions COMMITTEE ON EMERGING RESEARCH QUESTIONS IN THE ARCTIC HENRY P. HUNTINGTON (Co-Chair), The Pew Charitable Trusts, Eagle River, Alaska STEPHANIE PFIRMAN (Co-Chair), Barnard College, Columbia University, New York, New York CARIN ASHJIAN, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts LAURA BOURGEAU-CHAVEZ, Michigan Technological University, Ann Arbor, Michigan JENNIFER A. FRANCIS, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey SVEN HAAKANSON, University of Washington, Seattle ROBERT HAWLEY, Dartmouth College, Hanover, New Hampshire TAQULIK HEPA, North Slope Borough, Barrow, Alaska DAVID HIK, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta LARRY HINZMAN, University of Alaska Fairbanks AMANDA LYNCH, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island A. MICHAEL MACRANDER, Shell Alaska, Anchorage GIFFORD H. MILLER, University of Colorado Boulder KATE MORAN, Ocean Networks Canada, Victoria, British Columbia ELLEN S. MOSLEY-THOMPSON (NAS), The Ohio State University, Columbus SAMUEL B. MUKASA, University of New Hampshire, Durham TOM WEINGARTNER, University of Alaska Fairbanks NRC Staff MAGGIE WALSER, Co-Study Director LAUREN EVERETT, Co-Study Director LARA HENRY, Christine Mirzayan Fellow ELIZABETH FINKELMAN, Senior Program Assistant RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator SHELLY FREELAND, Senior Program Assistant ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate v Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. The Arctic in the Anthropocene: Emerging Research Questions POLAR RESEARCH BOARD JAMES C. WHITE (Chair), University of Colorado Boulder WALEED ABDALATI, University of Colorado Boulder SRIDHAR ANANDAKRISHNAN, Pennsylvania State University, University Park JULIE BRIGHAM-GRETTE, University of Massachusetts Amherst JOHN CASSANO, University of Colorado Boulder JENNIFER A. FRANCIS, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey EILEEN E. HOFMANN,Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia ELLEN S. MOSLEY-THOMPSON, The Ohio State University, Columbus GEORGE B. NEWTON, QinetiQ North America, Marstons Mills, Massachusetts RAFE POMERANCE, Independent Consultant CARYN REA, ConocoPhillips, Anchorage, Alaska GAIUS R. SHAVER, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, Massachusetts KATEY WALTER ANTHONY, University of Alaska Fairbanks ALLAN T. WEATHERWAX, Siena College, Loudonville, New York Ex-Officio: LARRY HINZMAN, University of Alaska, Fairbanks TERRY WILSON, Ohio State University, Columbus DENEB KARENTZ, University of San Francisco, California NRC Staff AMANDA STAUDT, Board Director LAURIE GELLER, Program Director MAGGIE WALSER, Senior Program Officer LAUREN EVERETT, Associate Program Officer LARA HENRY, Christine Mirzayan Fellow AMANDA PURCELL, Research and Financial Associate RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate SHELLY FREELAND, Senior Program Assistant vi Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. The Arctic in the Anthropocene: Emerging Research Questions Preface T his report comes at a unique time in human history. Never before has an ocean opened up before our eyes, awakening many to the importance and relevance of the far north. Because of the Arctic’s new strategic and economic potential, most of the Arctic countries—the United States, Canada, Norway, Sweden, Denmark/ Greenland, Finland, Iceland, and Russia—have produced new or updated national Arctic plans within the past year. These countries include some of the world’s largest and strongest economies. Several of the national plans are oriented toward develop- ment and increased empowerment of northern populations, as countries grapple with the prospect of claiming newly accessible mineral and energy resources. Internation- ally, the opening of the Arctic has raised issues of sovereignty and preparedness and spurred political realignment. Recently, the European Command1 identified the Arctic as a security concern. The non-Arctic countries of China, India, Italy, Japan, Singapore, and South Korea were accepted as observers by the Arctic Council2 in 2013, joining France, Spain, Poland, Germany, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. The United States will assume chairmanship of the Arctic Council in 2015. The Arctic itself is unique. The seasonal shifts from icy white in winter to browns, greens, and blues in summer are more extreme than anywhere else on Earth as the snow melts on land and the sea ice retreats in the ocean. The Arctic Ocean is sur- rounded by land, with narrow passages allowing interchange between the Pacific and the Atlantic oceans. Its hydrology is subject to more terrestrial influence than is any other ocean’s, and it receives freshwater from some of the largest rivers on Earth, whose watersheds include much of North America and Asia. Some have called it the estuary for the rest of the world ocean. The nearly encircling, shallow continental shelves are dominated by national Exclusive Economic Zones; no other ocean has so much of its area so designated. The United States shares international borders with Russia and Canada in the Arctic. Northern populations are unique in their relationship with the land, having thrived through some of the largest climate variations on Earth, ranging from the Ice Age, with mile-thick glaciers and frozen lands, to the warming, thawing, greening, glacial retreat, and urbanization of the Anthropocene. Resilient in the face of past changes, they face 1 See http://www.eucom.mil/. 2 See http://www.arctic-council.org. vii Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. The Arctic in the Anthropocene: Emerging Research Questions PREFACE a complex suite of disruptions, dislocations, and opportunities in the years to come as all climate models project continued warming and loss of sea ice, on which many of their traditional practices and food sources depend. The need for actionable Arctic science has never been greater than it is today. This report synthesizes the scientific community’s input on emerging research topics that concern the Arctic (i.e., those questions that we are only now able to ask or have a realistic prospect for studying). It especially considers topics that have been over- looked or underrepresented in current Arctic research. It also outlines opportunities and challenges in supporting new and existing research pathways and translating that research into practical information that can help guide management and policy decisions in the United States. The report is directed toward the Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committee (IARPC),3 which represents 15 federal agencies and organi- zations with responsibilities in the Arctic. It is designed to address the urgency for un- derstanding the rapidly changing Arctic by connecting the dots among future science opportunities and priorities, infrastructure needs, and collaboration opportunities at local, regional, and international levels. In preparing this analysis, the committee heard from a broad spectrum of the scientific and stakeholder communities, and we thank everyone for their thoughts and perspec- tives (Appendix B). We also thank the over 300 anonymous participants in our commu- nity questionnaire (Appendix C). Special thanks go to Marc Meloche, David Scott, and Sandy Bianchini of the Canadian Polar Commission for hosting our committee meet- ing in Ottawa. On behalf of the entire study team, we also thank the sponsors who enabled the undertaking of this important analysis. Finally, this report would not have been possible without the dedication and hard work of the National Research Coun- cil staff: Lauren Everett and Maggie Walser. We also thank Elizabeth Finkelman, Shelly Freeland, Rita Gaskins, and Rob Greenway for administrative and logistical support. Stephanie Pfirman and Henry Huntington, Co-Chairs Committee on Emerging Research Questions in the Arctic 3 IARPC member agencies / organizations include: the National Science Foundation; the Department of Commerce; the Department of Defense; the Department of State; the Department of Health and Human Services; the Department of Homeland Security; Office of Science and Technology Policy; the Department of Agriculture; the Department of Energy; the Department of the Interior; the Department of Transportation; the National Aeronautics and Space Administration; the Environmental Protection Agency; the Smithsonian Institution; and the National Endowment for the Humanities. viii Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. The Arctic in the Anthropocene: Emerging Research Questions Acknowledgments T his report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institu- tional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participa- tion in their review of this report: WALEED ABDALATI, University of Colorado Boulder EDDY CARMACK, Institute of Ocean Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada F. STUART (TERRY) CHAPIN, University of Alaska Fairbanks BYRON CRUMP, Oregon State University GAIL FONDAHL, University of Northern British Columbia DONALD PEROVICH, U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, Dartmouth College MARTIN ROBARDS, Wildlife Conservations Society JULIENNE STROEVE, National Snow and Ice Data Center ORAN YOUNG, University of California, Santa Barbara TINGJUN ZHANG, National Snow and Ice Data Center Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by John Walsh, University of Alaska Fairbanks, appointed by the Division on Earth and Life Studies, who was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. The authoring committee also wishes to thank numerous individuals from a broad spectrum of the scientific and stakeholder communities (Appendix B). Responsibility for the final content of this report rests en- tirely with the authoring committee and the institution. ix Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.