Karim Mezran The Arc of Crisis in the MENA Region volume deals with T THE ARC OF CRISIS H Resident senior fellow at the the countries of the Middle East and North Africa that E Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle A are facing a particularly troubled period in their historical R IN THE MENA REGION Founded in 1934, ISPI is East at the Atlantic Council in C Washington, DC. development. Syria, Iraq, Libya, Egypt and to a lesser O an independent think tank extent Jordan and Tunisia have plunged into a legitimacy F committed to the study of C Arturo Varvelli crisis that in some cases has turned into civil war or violent R Fragmentation, Decentralization, international political and upheaval. As traditional authorities lose their legitimacy, two IS economic dynamics. Senior research fellow and IS It is the only Italian Institute co-head of the Middle East and alternatives are emerging. The first is a more decentralized IN and Islamist Opposition – and one of the very few in North Africa Center at the Italian system of government, evinced by the empowerment of T Europe – to combine research Institute for International Political subnational government bodies and the growing legitimacy HE activities with a significant Studies (ISPI) in Milan, Italy. of local authorities; in this trend, the local authorities are M edited by Karim Mezran, Arturo Varvelli commitment to training, events, able to keep the state united and more functional. The E and global risk analysis for N second is a growing number of political groups that act A preface by Frederick Kempe, Giampiero Massolo companies and institutions. R ISPI favours an interdisciplinary as opposition to authoritarianism, which is experiencing E G and policy-oriented approach a revival. The analysis herein also focuses on Islamist I O made possible by a research movements; namely, their organizational and ideological N team of over 50 analysts and development as well as how the shrinking of the political an international network of 70 space affects them and the entire polity. This Report universities, think tanks, and explores the distinctive dynamics and characteristics of research centres. In the ranking issued by the University of these challenges in the post-Arab Spring era. Pennsylvania, ISPI placed first worldwide as the “Think Tank to Watch in 2018”. € 12 The Arc of Crisis in the MENA Region Fragmentation, Decentralization, and Islamist Opposition edited by Karim Mezran and Arturo Varvelli © 2018 Ledizioni LediPublishing Via Alamanni, 11 – 20141 Milano – Italy www.ledizioni.it [email protected] The Arc of Crisis in the MENA Region. Fragmentation, Decentralization, and Islamist Opposition Edited by Karim Mezran and Arturo Varvelli First edition: September 2018 The opinions expressed herein are strictly personal and do not necessarily reflect the position of ISPI. This report is written and published in accordance with the Atlantic Council Policy on Intellectual Independence. The author is solely responsible for its analy- sis and recommendations. The Atlantic Council and its donors do not determine, nor do they necessarily endorse or advocate for, any of this report’s conclusions. To cite this report: Karim Mezran and Arturo Varvelli (eds.), The Arc of Crisis in the MENA Region, ISPI and Atlantic Council, 2018, https://www.ispionline.it/ http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/ Print ISBN 9788867058570 ePub ISBN 9788867058563 Pdf ISBN 9788867058587 DOI 10.14672/67058570 ISPI. Via Clerici, 5 20121, Milan www.ispionline.it Catalogue and reprints information: www.ledizioni.it The Atlantic Council is a nonpartisan organization that promotes constructive US leadership and engagement in international affairs based on the central role of the Atlantic community in meeting today’s global challenges. Atlantic Council RRAAFFIIKK HHAARRIIRRII CCEENNTTEERR FFOORR TTHHEE MMIIDDDDLLEE EEAASSTT The Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East studies political and economic dynamics in the Middle East and recommends US, European, and regional policies to encourage effective governance, political legitimacy, and stability. Table of Contents A Renewed Arc of Crisis in the MENA Region................... 7 Preface by Frederick Kempe, Giampiero Massolo Part I - IntroductIon Framework.......................................................................... 15 Karim Mezran, Arturo Varvelli Part II - current trends: a case for decentralIzatIon? 1. From Fragmentation to Decentralization: An Overview..................................................................... 23 Ranj Alaaldin, Karim Mezran 2. Decentralization in Tunisia: Its Utility 37 and Competing Visions for Implementation................... Fadil Aliriza 3. Decentralization: The Last Resort for Libya?................... 49 Karim Mezran, Erin A. Neale 4. Decentralization in the Syrian Context........................... 61 Faysal Itani, Emily Burchfield 5. Iraq: From Fragmentation to (De)Centralization?........... 75 Andrea Plebani Part III - PolItIcal oPPosItIon In the arab World 6. Islamist-Inspired Groups After the Arab Spring............... 89 Arturo Varvelli, Silvia Carenzi 7. Mainstream Institutionalization vs Disenfranchised Radicalization in Tunisia........................... 109 Stefano M. Torelli 8. What Happened to Political Islam in Libya?..................... 123 Mary Fitzgerald 9. Egyptian Islamists in the Labyrinth.................................. 135 Ashraf El Sherif 10. Political Islam in Jordan: A Plurality of Visions..................................................... 153 Paolo Maggiolini Part IV - energy 11. The Implications of Natural Gas Potential 173 in the MENA Region..................................................... Simone Tagliapietra Acknowledgments................................................................185 About the Authors...............................................................187 A Renewed Arc of Crisis in the MENA Region The “arc of crisis” concept was formulated in 1978 by Jimmy Carter’s National Security Advisor, Zbigniew Brzezinski, after various events had shaken the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA). The idea behind this theorization was that an arc of instability was emerging, stretching from the Indian sub- continent to the Atlantic Coast of North Africa. Forty years after such an idea was first conceptualized, the Middle East re- mains the least stable region on earth. Failing states, wars, jihadi terrorism, migration flows and the refugee emergency are all threats that destabilize the region and contribute to creating a “constantly renewing” arc of crisis, whose consequences have an impact on Western countries as well. The current situation in the MENA region therefore appears to be the byproduct of dynamics of change in the international system, political deci- sions taken by leading foreign actors, and social, political, and economic dynamics within the Arab-Muslim world. At the global level, the past two years have been marked by the exacerbation of a process that was already underway for some time: the decline of an international system that is prev- alently based on a shared sense of Western values (liberalism, multilateralism, international laws, etc.). A crisis of legitimacy encompasses every fundamental dimension of the current in- ternational political system, starting from the principles that characterized every past model of international coexistence, 10 The Arc of Crisis in the MENA Region i.e., the principles that define who are the legitimate subjects within the international order, their status, the distribution of territory between them, and the conditions at which they may legitimately resort to military conflict. All these dynamics arise in the MENA region as well. This crisis is triggering the growing and renewed assertiveness of potential global rivals of the United States, and particularly Russia and China. The breakdown of the international system into sub-regions that are progressively more independent is in- creasing the weight of regional powers, such as Saudi Arabia, Iran and Turkey. This condition is not helping to mitigate the flames of the rivalries, whose original causes are certainly more geopolitical than religious and/or sectarian. In this context, the Trump administration has chosen to revitalize alliances with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Israel in the attempt to contain Iran, perceived as a major threat and a highly destabilizing actor. Russia seems more interested in trying to become a mediator for regional disputes in the region. In order to gain a privi- leged geopolitical position in the area, and above all in Syria – where it champions one side over others –, Moscow maintains good relations with many of the regional actors. Not by chance, Russia has broad ties of various natures: from Israel to Iran, from Syria to Saudi Arabia, from Turkey to Lebanon. On the one hand, this allows Russia to consolidate a phase of interven- tionist foreign policy, functional at the same time to confront the United States. On the other hand, this policy is certainly precarious and costly, and raises the question of whether the Kremlin will be able to fulfill its commitments with the (limit- ed) resources available in the long term. At the internal level, however, managing power and govern- ance in many MENA countries remains highly problematic. In less stable countries, internal fractures, which have at times led to the outbreak of civil wars, have been intensified by the growing influence of non-state actors on a local and interna- tional level. Legitimacy, however, remains very fragile even in