Springer Earth System Sciences Philip Micklin N.V. Aladin Igor Plotnikov Editors The Aral Sea The Devastation and Partial Rehabilitation of a Great Lake The Aral Sea Springer Earth System Sciences Series Editor Philippe Blondel For furthervolumes: http://www.springer.com/series/10178 Philip Micklin (Chief Editor) (cid:129) N.V. Aladin (Associate Editor) (cid:129) Igor Plotnikov (Associate Editor) The Aral Sea The Devastation and Partial Rehabilitation of a Great Lake Editors PhilipMicklin(ChiefEditor) N.V.Aladin(AssociateEditor) DepartmentofGeography IgorPlotnikov(AssociateEditor) WesternMichiganUniversity ZoologicalInstitute Michigan RussianAcademyofSciences USA St.Petersburg Russia ISBN978-3-642-02355-2 ISBN978-3-642-02356-9(eBook) DOI10.1007/978-3-642-02356-9 SpringerHeidelbergNewYorkDordrechtLondon ©Springer-VerlagBerlinHeidelberg2014 Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsarereservedbythePublisher,whetherthewholeorpart of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation,broadcasting,reproductiononmicrofilmsorinanyotherphysicalway,andtransmissionor informationstorageandretrieval,electronicadaptation,computersoftware,orbysimilarordissimilar methodologynowknownorhereafterdeveloped.Exemptedfromthislegalreservationarebriefexcerpts inconnectionwithreviewsorscholarlyanalysisormaterialsuppliedspecificallyforthepurposeofbeing enteredandexecutedonacomputersystem,forexclusiveusebythepurchaserofthework.Duplication ofthispublicationorpartsthereofispermittedonlyundertheprovisionsoftheCopyrightLawofthe Publisher’s location, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer.PermissionsforusemaybeobtainedthroughRightsLinkattheCopyrightClearanceCenter. 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Printedonacid-freepaper SpringerispartofSpringerScience+BusinessMedia(www.springer.com) Foreword The Aral Sea has long been a poster child of pollution and environment degrada- tion.Picturesofcamelsgrazingnexttoabigship’srustedhull;parchedlandwhere asearichinfishandotherresourcesusedtobe;abandonedeconomichubsindry harbors; dust and salt storms large enough to be visible from space ... All these exampleshaveenteredtheconsciousnessoflaycitizensaroundtheworld,showing howhumanactivitieshaveslowlybutsteadilydestroyedwhatwasoncearichand productiveregion.Astheeffectsofclimatechangeareincreasinglyfeltaroundthe world, scientists, administrators and politicians need to heed the lessons from the AralSeaandavoidsimilar,loomingdisastersinotherregions. This urgency has been noted in many publications, scientific and otherwise, including the authoritative and regular reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange(IPCC,http://www.ipcc.ch).Alreadyin1997,theIPCChighlighted the importance of the Aral Sea as “a case study of the multiplicative effects of resourceoveruse,whichcanleadtolocalenvironmentalandevenclimatechange”, noting however there had been no integrated assessment of its natural and human impacts.Thiscleargapisaddressedbythepresentbook,entitled“Destructionofthe Aral Sea” and edited by experts of the Aral Sea who have spent decades of their professionallivesmeasuringandunderstandingtheevolutionoftheAralSea.Inthe truespiritoftheSpringerEarthSystemSciencesseries,thisbookbringstogethera wealth of experts from seven different countries, spanning all fields from remote sensingtofisheries,geology,zoology,biodiversityandenvironmentalmanagement inter alia. Throughout 18 chapters, in close to 500 pages and with an extensive bibliography, sometimes summarizing innovative and important research not pre- viously seen in the western literature, the authors show us how the Aral Sea has evolved, fromlong before humanintervention tothe latest years.This bookis far fromonlyaseriesofobservationsof“theDestruction”,anditssubtitleclearlyshows thepotentialfora“PartialRehabilitationofaGreatLake”. Masterfullyorganizedandledbyitseditors,PhilipMicklin,NikolayV.Aladin and Igor Plotnikov, this book consists of an introductory chapter and three parts. Part I (Background to the Aral Problem) in three chapters provides essential information about the Aral Sea prior to its modern desiccation that gives context v vi Foreword towhathashappenedtothelakeinthemodernera.PartII(ModernRecessionof Aral) in nine chapters covers key aspects and consequences of the shrinking Aral Seafromtheinceptionofthisphenomenonintheearly1960suntiltoday.Thefirst fourchaptersofPartIII(AralFuture)examinewhatmayhappentothisoncegrand lakeanditsenvironsincomingyears,dependingprimarilyonthehumanresponse to this disaster and showing that there is a way forward, provided clear commitmentsandactionsonthegroundaretakensoon.Thefinalsummarychapter includes a discussion ofthe lessons to be gleaned from the Aral experience along withasuggestedlistofkeyresearchtopicsthatneeddeeperinvestigationinorder foroptimalimprovementofthiswaterbody.Whathashappenedinthisregion,and what is happeningnow, concerns usall, asglobal citizens inaworld increasingly affectedbyclimatechangeandhumanimpacts. Havingreadthemanychaptersofthisbookasitwasinthemaking,Ihaveseen howtheyevolvedtoformastructuredsummaryofsuchaninternationallyimpor- tantregion.Icanthereforeonlyrecommenditsreadingstoscientists,administrators anddecision-makersaroundtheworld,toseehowthelessonswearelearning the hardwayintheAralSeanow,canbeusedeverywhereinthefuture. Bath,UK PhilippeBlondel October2013 Acknowledgements PhilipMicklin,ChiefEditor MycontributiontothisbookisbasedonthreedecadesinvolvementwiththeAral Sea issue and numerous trips to the Aral Sea region. Over these years I have receivedhelpfrommanyindividuals,andfundingfromorganizations,intheUnited States,SovietUnion,Russia,WesternEurope,JapanandCentralAsia,particularly in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. I want to express my deepest thanks to these individuals and organizations too numerous to name. Special thanks, however, are in order to the Department of Geography, Western Michigan University, Kalamazoo, Michigan; the NATO Science for Peace Program; the U.S. National AcademyofSciences;theCommitteeforResearchandExplorationoftheNational GeographicSociety;theNationalCouncilforSovietandEastEuropeanResearch; the United Nations Environment Program; the Institutes of Geography and Water Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences in Moscow; Karakalpakstan State University in Nukus, Karakalpakstan (Uzbekistan), and, last but not least, the Zoological Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences in St. Petersburg. Iwouldalsoliketoexpressmygratitudetomywife,lefttohandlefamilymatters duringmyvisitsoverseas,sometimesforextendedperiods,inconnectionwithmy researchontheAralSea. NikolayAladinandIgorPlotnikov,AssociateEditors We would like to thank all members of our Brackish Water Laboratory of the ZoologicalInstituteofRASandallmembersoftheFisheriesLaboratoryinAralsk, KazakhstanandallmembersoftheInternationalFundforSavingtheAralSea,all membersofourexpeditionstotheAralSeafromRussia,Kazakhstan,Uzbekistan, USA,Germany,UK,France,Spain,Japan,Australia,Sweden,Sloveniaandsome other countries. A special thanks is in order to our colleagues at St-Petersburg Pedagogic University headed by the famous botanist Lev Aleksandrovich Kusnetsov with whom we did our studies on the Barsakelmes Island in the Aral Sea.Wealsowouldliketothankallmembersofourfamilieswhoremainedwithout uswhenwewereinourlonglasting,numerousexpeditionstotheAralSeaduring the period from 1979 until 2013. Finally, we would like to remember those vii viii Acknowledgements colleagues and friends who passed away and who helped us a lot in our Aral Sea studies: Dr. Evdokiya Markova (Kazakhstan), Dr. Nikolay Vorontzov (Russia), Dr. William Williams (Australia), Dr.William Potts (UK), Dr. Gilbert White (USA), Dr. Tatuo Kira (Japan), and especially Dr. David Davidovich Piriulin of ourLaboratory. Abbreviations and Acronyms ASBP AralSeaBasinProgramoftheWorldBank AVHRR AdvancedVeryHighResolutionRadiometer asl Abovesealevel BP Beforepresent BVO BasinWaterManagementAssociation(Authority) ca. Approximately cal. Calibrated cm Centimeter DO Dissolvedoxygen ESA EuropeanSpaceAgency EVI Enhancedvegetationindex GEF Globalenvironmentalfacility ha Hectare ICAS InterstateCouncilontheProblemsoftheAralSeaBasin ICWC InterstateCoordinatingWaterManagementCommission IFAS InternationalFundforSavingtheAralSea ka Thousandyears km Kilometer Landsat Landsatellite km2 Squarekilometer km3 Cubickilometer l Liter m Meter m3 Cubicmeter mt Metricton MODIS ModerateResolutionImagingSpectroradiometer NAS NorthAralSea NATO NorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization NAWAPA NorthAmericanWaterandPowerAlliance NDVI Normalizeddifferencevegetationindex RBO RiverBasinOrganization ix