ACTA UNIVERSITATIS AGRICULTURAE ET SILVICULTURAE MENDELIANAE BRUNENSIS Volume LIX 39 Number 4, 2011 THE ANALYSIS OF INDIVIDUAL VISEGRAD GROUP MEMBERS’ AGRARIAN EXPORT SENSITIVITY IN RELATION TO SELECTED MACROECONOMIC AGGREGATIONS M. Svatoš, L. Smutka Received: March 30, 2011 Abstract SVATOŠ, M., SMUTKA, L.: The analysis of individual Visegrad group members’ agrarian export sensitivity in relation to selected macroeconomic aggregations. A cta univ. agric. et silvic. Mendel. Brun., 2011, LIX, No. 4, pp. 327–342 This paper analyzes the development of agricultural trade of the countries of the Visegrad Group with emphasis on development of the value of agricultural exports of the individual countries. The subject matter of the analysis is the sensitivity of the commodity structure of agricultural exports of individual countries and the identifi cation of aggregations that are the least and the most sensitive to changes to the external and internal economic environment. From the conducted research, agricultural trade in the V4 countries was found to have developed very dynamically from 1993 to 2008, while the commodity structure of exports has constantly narrowed as the degree of specialization of the individual countries has increased (this applies especially to the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary). From the results of analysis of sensitivity to changes of selected variables relating to the development of the value of agricultural exports of the individual V4 countries, it appears that the aggregations that react most sensitively to changes are those that are the subject of re-exports, followed by the aggregations that are characterized by a high degree of added value. In general it can be said that products of agricultural primary production exhibit less sensitivity in comparison with grocery industry products. This is confi rmed by the general trend arising from the very nature of consumer behaviour. agricultural trade, exports, analysis, sensitivity, change, commodity structure, value In recent years, the countries of the Visegrad for the individual countries, and was economically, Group (Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland and socially and politically exhausting (Bański, J., 2005). Hungary) have undergone very stormy economic, The changes aff ected all sectors of the national cultural, political and societal developments (Qineti, economies, including agriculture. From the second A., Rajcaniova, M., Matejkova, E., 2009; Pokrivčák, half of the 1990s, all of the analyzed countries J., Drábik, D., 2008). The individual countries were linked by an eff ort to become members of the are linked by a common history and similarity of European Union. The Czech Republic, Slovakia, economic and political developments (Střeleček, Poland and Hungary jointly underwent the whole F., Lososová, J., Zdeněk., R., 2009). The individual procedure for accession to the EU, during which in countries emerged a(cid:5) er World War I and then the course of negotiations on joining the EU, they underwent similar developments in particular in the tried (as much as possible) to cooperate and support period a(cid:5) er World War II. A(cid:5) er 1990 the individual each other. countries replaced their centrally planned economic Their entry into the EU in 2004 meant a drastic systems with market economies (Bielik, P., 2010; change for their individual economies (Burianová, Horská, E., 2011). The process of transition from J., 2010). The individual countries became members one economic system to another was very painful of a community encompassing in its present form 327 328 M. Svatoš, L. Smutka 27 member states with over 500 million inhabitants. in the cases of the individual V4 countries, whereby The individual member states are also linked by it may be determined how sensitive the exports of very fi rm economic and political ties, and their a selected country are in comparison with the other cooperation is strengthened by the existence of analyzed countries. the common market of the EU countries, where The goal of the conducted analysis is to quantify the idea of the free movement of goods, services, the sensitivity of agricultural exports to changes capital and persons is realized, which has greatly of selected macroeconomic variables and then to infl uenced and still greatly infl uences the economic identify existing diff erences between the individual developments of the individual analyzed countries countries of the Visegrad Group. (Jeníček, V., 2009). The actual calculation of the value of elasticity Membership in the EU also has an impact on trade is then based on analysis of mutual relations in relation to third countries, since the EU realizes existing between the value of agricultural exports outwardly a common policy for EU member states of individual countries (endogenous variable) on and protection of its internal market (Bašek, V., the one hand, and selected factors relating to the Kraus, J., 2009). development of economic output of the individual All of the aforementioned changes together with countries. Taken into account in this case are the other changes that have occurred in recent years in following variables (exogenous variables): the cases of the individual countries, whether at an • GDP – world (in USD) economic, political, legislative, juridical, cultural, • GDP – EU15 countries (in USD) societal or other level, have greatly contributed • GDP – EU12 countries (new EU members – towards the restructuring of the individual countries joining in 2004 and 2007) (in USD) economies of Visegrad Group countries. Each • GDP – individual countries (i.e. Czech Republic, sector of the national economy has had to adapt Slovakia, Hungary and Poland) (in USD) to changing conditions both on each analyzed • Agricultural exports – world (in USD) country’s own market and on the market of the EU • Agricultural exports – EU (internal market) countries and the world market (Bojnec, Š., Fertő, I., (in USD) 2011). Restructuring had a powerful impact in particular on the agricultural sector, the dimensions • GDP – agricultural sector in individual countries of which in the case of all of the analyzed countries (i.e. Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and over the course of twenty years have shrunk, and Poland) (in USD) the importance of agriculture in the context of the • GDP – agricultural sector – world (in USD) national economies (or with respect to generation of • GDP – agricultural sector – EU15 countries GDP) has declined steeply. This process has strongly (in USD) infl uenced not only the structure and volume of • GDP – agricultural sector – EU12 countries agricultural and food production in the individual (in USD). countries of Central Europe, but also the form of Relations among individual variables are their foreign trade of agricultural products and determined through calculation of correlation, food (hereina(cid:5) er AFT – agricultural foreign trade). and in relation to the endogenous variable versus Nonetheless, it should be emphasized that among the exogenous variable, the index of determinacy the individual countries there are big diff erences is calculated. In this regard, it should be said that with respect to access to the agricultural sector and the index of correlation is at a very high level in development not only of the commodity structure, the case of the relation of agricultural trade of the but also of the territorial structure of agricultural selected country on the one hand and of the selected trade. exogenous parameter on the other hand in the case of most of the analyzed exogenous variables. MATERIALS AND METHODS The actual analysis of elasticity has been calculated on the basis of the construction of This paper analyzes the development of value of a series of single-factor regressive functions based agricultural exports of Visegrad Group countries. on the mutual relationship between the value of The main idea is to analyze in particular the agricultural exports of the selected country (in sensitivity of agricultural exports of individual the position endogenous variable) and a selected countries to changes to both the internal and variable relating to the development of the national, external environment infl uencing development of European and world economy (exogenous variable). the value and structure of agricultural exports of In this regard, the shape of the linear function was individual Visegrad Group countries. chosen as follows: Analysis through calculation of the value of elasticity reveals the sensitivity of agricultural y = bx + c, exports of individual countries to changes that have the potential to infl uence export performance of where: individual countries. The analysis then permits y ....is the endogenous variable, a comparison of the diff erences in sensitivity of x ....is the exogenous variable, agricultural exports to changes of selected factors c .....is the constant. The analysis of individual Visegrad group members’ agrarian export sensitivity 329 The quality of the individual equations was commodity structure of agricultural and food trade tested as follows. The values of the basic tests according to SITC categories from 2002. According (t-test, p-value, D-W test, …) gave satisfactory to that categorization, trade with agricultural and results in the case of the relationship of most food products is divided into 44 basic aggregations. of the selected exogenous variables and of the individual endogenous variables characterizing RESULTS AND DISCUSSION the development of agricultural exports of Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia in 1993– From 1993 to 2008 the agricultural trade of 2008. individual Central European countries increased Once the resultant form of the value of linear in value very sharply (see Tables No. II and III). regression is calculated, next is calculated the actual The agricultural exports of the V4 during the given elasticity for the purpose of obtaining information period rose from USD 4.6 billion to more than about the average value of sensitivity of agricultural USD 31 billion. The value of imports during that exports to changes in the development of value of same period also increased very sharply from USD selected economic indicators. 4.3 billion to nearly USD 30 billion. The value of The calculation of elasticity is then based on the agricultural trade grew most dynamically during the following relationship: monitored years in Poland, while the least dynamic growth of the value of agricultural trade was in E = (∂y/∂x) / (x/y). Hungary. i i Within the context of all of the analyzed From the equation, it is apparent the elasticity is countries, the value of agricultural exports a ratio of the percentage change of the explained during the monitored period rose on average by variable to the percentage change of the explaining ca. 13.6% annually, and the corresponding value variable “i”. of agricultural imports represented ca. 13.64% With respect to the uniformity of the data annually. The results show that within the context source, the central source chosen for data was of all of the analyzed countries, agricultural exports the database of UN COMTRADE. That database and imports are increasing in value at approximately provides compact time series concerning trade the same rate, while there exists a certain slight transactions of individual countries from 1961 to preponderance on the import side, which has 2008. The analysis draws on the categorization of the I: List of aggregations representing the commodity structure of agricultural and food trade SITC SITC Aggregation Aggregation code code 001 LIVE ANIMALS 056 VEGTABLES, PRPD, PRSVD, NES 011 BOVINE MEAT 057 FRUIT, NUTS EXCL. OIL NUTS 012 OTHER MEAT, MEAT OFFAL 058 FRUIT, PRESERVED, PREPARED 016 MEAT, ED. OFFL, DRY, SLT, SMK 059 FRUIT, VEGETABLE JUICES 017 MEAT, OFFL. PRPD, PRSVD, NES 061 SUGARS, MOLASSES, HONEY 022 MILK AND CREAM 062 SUGAR CONFECTIONERY 023 BUTTER, OTHER FAT OF MILK 071 COFFEE, COFFEE SUBSTITUTE 024 CHEESE AND CURD 072 COCOA 025 EGGS, BIRDS, YOLKS, ALBUMIN 073 CHOCOLATE, OTH. COCOA PREP 034 FISH, FRESH, CHILLED, FROZN 074 TEA AND MATE 035 FISH, DRIED, SALTED, SMOKED 075 SPICES 036 CRUSTACEANS, MOLLUSCS ETC 081 ANIMAL FEED STUFF 037 FISH ETC. PREPD, PRSVD. NES 091 MARGARINE AND SHORTENING 041 WHEAT, MESLIN, UNMILLED 098 EDIBLE PROD. PREPRTNS,NES 042 RICE 111 NON-ALCOHOL. BEVERAGE, NES 043 BARLEY, UNMILLED 112 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES 044 MAIZE UNMILLED 121 TOBACCO, UNMANUFACTURED 045 OTHER CEREALS, UNMILLED 122 TOBACCO, MANUFACTURED 046 MEAL, FLOUR OF WHEAT, MSLN 411 ANIMAL OILS AND FATS 047 OTHER CEREAL MEAL, FLOURS 421 FIXED VEG. FAT, OILS, SOFT 048 CEREAL PREPARATIONS 422 FIXED VEG. FAT, OILS, OTHER 054 VEGETABLES 431 ANIMAL, VEG. FATS, OILS, NES Source: Czech Statistical Offi ce, 2010 330 M. Svatoš, L. Smutka increased in value during the past years slightly exports in the countries, agricultural GDP in the faster in comparison with exports. In this regard it context of the individual monitored countries and should be emphasized that the average growth rate regions. of the value of agricultural exports of the individual From the results of analysis of the mutual relations countries of the V4 very greatly exceeds the average between the selected variables, one fi nds a very close growth rate of value of agricultural trade around the dependence among the majority of the variables in world and especially in EU countries. question. This mutual relationship is strengthened During the monitored period, agricultural trade by the fact that the American dollar, which is used of the individual V4 countries, and especially for this analysis, has weakened signifi cantly in exports, reacted very sensitively to stimuli aff ecting recent years, thereby increasing the dollar values them, both from the internal and especially from of most of the monitored variables at the regional the external economic environment. Since there and global level. If attention is devoted to the is a large number of variables aff ecting agricultural resultant values of sensitivity of agricultural trade trade, the following variables were selected for the or individual analyzed countries to changes in the analysis below (for details see the methodology): development of selected factors infl uencing both GDP in the world, GDP in EU15 countries, GDP the domestic and the global environment, one may in EU12 countries, GDP of individual countries, assert the following (see the table No. IV). agricultural exports in the world, agricultural II: Growth rate of the value of agricultural exports realized in the context of world trade (growth rate calculated using a chain index) Inter-annual growth Inter-annual growth Inter-annual growth Inter-annual growth rate 1993–2008 rate 1993–1998 rate 1999–2003 rate 2004–2008 World 1.08 1.07 1.03 1.15 EU27 1.08 1.06 1.04 1.13 Czech Republic 1.116 0.997 1.113 1.281 Slovakia 1.13 1.00 1.14 1.29 Hungary 1.10 1.03 1.08 1.20 Poland 1.17 1.08 1.15 1.31 Source: UN Comtrade, 2010 + our own calculations III: Development of values of the fl ows of goods of agricultural trade in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia in 1993–2008 Import Export in mil. in mil. USD Czech Hungary Poland Slovakia V4 USD Czech Hungary Poland Slovakia V4 Republic Republic 1993 981 689 2 079 563 4 312 1993 1 029 1 692 1 544 337 4 602 1995 1 678 836 2 735 707 5 956 1995 1 253 2 568 2 287 506 6 614 1997 1 760 975 3 427 804 6 966 1997 1 157 2 590 3 166 412 7 325 1999 1 630 878 3 033 716 6 257 1999 1 014 2 065 2 394 371 5 844 2001 1 685 1 010 3 071 835 6 601 2001 1 172 2 287 2 727 419 6 605 2003 2 433 1 526 3 566 1 034 8 559 2003 1 624 2 864 4 173 657 9 318 2005 3 989 2 667 6 125 2 046 14 827 2005 2 989 3 626 8 358 1 407 16 380 2007 5 992 3 787 10 074 3 129 22 982 2007 4 369 5 719 12 951 2 145 25 184 2008 7 100 4 705 13 603 3 971 2 9379 2008 5 527 7 115 16 133 2 365 31 140 Source: UN Comtrade, 2010 + our own calculations IV: Elasticity of agricultural trade of the selected countries depending on the percentage of change of value of selected variables in 1993–2008 Agrarian Agrarian Individual World EU15 - EU12 - World EU World GDP of GDP of GDP of export - V4 members agrarian Agrarian Agrarian trade trade GDP EU15 EU12 individual Elasticity (%) GDP GDP GDP GDP V4 members Czech Rep. 1.89 1.90 2.29 1.17 2.29 1.19 2.62 2.09 3.80 1.98 Slovakia 2.21 2.24 2.72 1.39 2.73 1.40 3.05 2.28 4.48 2.32 Hungary 1.30 1.31 1.54 0.85 1.55 0.81 1.81 1.30 2.88 1.37 Poland 2.32 2.33 2.82 1.55 2.81 1.46 3.20 2.09 4.60 2.41 Source: UN Comtrade, 2010 + our own work The analysis of individual Visegrad group members’ agrarian export sensitivity 331 Without a doubt, Poland is the country that reacts commodity structure of the agricultural exports most sensitively to changes to the external and of Visegrad Group countries, we come to the internal environment infl uencing the development following conclusions, which directly concern the of agricultural exports of the selected countries. actual status of the commodity structure of the Poland’s agricultural trade is growing very agricultural exports of the individual analyzed dynamically. A(cid:5) er Poland comes Slovakia, then countries. From the calculated data, it is seen that the Czech Republic and Hungary. An interesting the commodity structure of the agricultural exports fi nding in this regard is the fact that Hungary, of the Visegrad Group countries is very fl exible. In which represents a natural player on the market the case of Polish agricultural exports, the number for agricultural and food products, exhibits the of aggregations with a higher than average value of lowest level of elasticity in dependence on changes elasticity is 23 (if one were to use the average value of to the environment, whether external or internal. fl exibility of agricultural exports of Visegrad Group In general it can be asserted that the elasticity of countries as a whole, the number of aggregations the agricultural exports of the individual countries with above-average elasticity would in fact rise to changes of the external environment is high, to 33). It is also worth mentioning that of the 44 and in view of the trend towards growth of added aggregations of Polish agricultural exports, 41 are value in all of the monitored variables, the trend characterized by an elasticity fi gure higher than of development is positive. On average, it can 1 (showing themselves to be fl exible). Regarding be said that the elasticity of Polish agricultural Slovak agricultural exports, it can be said that 37 exports to changes caused by changes of value aggregations of the commodity structure of Slovak (usually growth) of selected variables is very high. agricultural exports have proven themselves to be Generally, corresponding to a one-percent change fl exible. In the case of 21 aggregations, the fi gure for to any of the aforementioned exogenous variables fl exibility is above average in comparison with the is on average a change to the actual value of Polish average for Slovak agricultural exports as a whole, agricultural exports by ca. 2.56%. In the case of and approximately 27 aggregations (i.e. 6 more Slovakia one also fi nds high elasticity of the value aggregations) have above-average fl exibility within of agricultural exports to the external environment the context of the average for the Visegrad Group (ca. 2.48%). In the case of the Czech Republic, countries. Czech agricultural exports have above- the sensitivity to external and internal changes average elasticity in the case of 23 aggregations, is not as great. The average value of fl exibility in and if we use the average fl exibility of agricultural respect to the percentage of change of the value of trade of Visegrad Group countries, the number selected variables in 1993–2008 varied at the level of aggregations evaluated as above average falls to of 2.12%. The least elastic development of the value 21. It should also be said that the majority of the of agricultural exports can be seen in the case of aggregations, i.e. 38 of 44, show themselves to be Hungary. Its agricultural sector is now dragging fl exible with an elasticity fi gure greater than 1. In along with a tendency towards stagnation. The crisis comparison with the other countries in question, in which Hungarian agriculture has found itself Hungarian agricultural exports have the lowest has greatly impacted its export competitiveness, fl exibility fi gure in relation to changes to the and Hungary, formerly the leader for agricultural external and internal environment. Exhibiting exports of the Visegrad, is stagnant, and in 1993– fl exibility (having an elasticity fi gure greater than 1) 2008 it did not take full advantage of the potential are “only” 27 aggregations of the commodity possibilities that became available to it as a result of structure of Hungarian exports. Maintaining above- the total liberalization of the European agricultural average fl exibility in the context of the average for and food market. Hungarian agricultural trade are approximately If we analyze the sensitivity of agricultural exports 18 aggregations, and in the case of the average for of the individual countries to changes to selected countries of the Visegrad Group as a whole, the variables of the external and internal environment, number of above-average aggregations falls to one may assert that the changes having the greatest approximately 10. From this point of view, it would impact on all of the countries are not those of the appear that Hungarian trade is the most stable in global market, but rather those of the countries comparison with all of the other Visegrad Group of the EU (especially changes to GDP of EU15 countries, but in this case the low level of elasticity countries, and specifi cally changes to the agriculture means that Hungary’s agricultural exports have had GDP of the EU15 countries), to which the individual the slowest growth of value in comparison with all countries belong and which constitute the main of the other analyzed countries, where the export export market for their agricultural and food values of agricultural exports during the years of products. Tables No. V, VI, VII and VIII below give general growth (1993–2008) increased greatly. a brief overview of the development of the value of elasticity of individual aggregations representing Elasticity of the commodity structure of the commodity structure of Polish, Czech, Slovak agricultural trade of the Visegrad Group and Hungarian exports. countries (identical trends and diff erences) If we then summarize the fi ndings above An interesting determination relating to relating to the characteristic of sensitivity of the the elasticity of the commodity structure of 332 M. Svatoš, L. Smutka agricultural exports of the Czech Republic, Czech Republic Slovakia, Hungary and Poland is the fact that With Czech agricultural trade, one sees that the within the context of the fi rst half of the scale of commodity structure of agricultural exports rests commodity structure of agricultural exports, (i.e. on more than 20 aggregations characterized by an in the case of 22 aggregations) there are matches above-average level of elasticity, both with respect among the individual countries in the case of only 5 to the Czech structure of agricultural exports and aggregations, and if we compare matching of lists of with respect to the export structure of the Visegrad items with an above-average rate of growth of value Group countries. Through the infl uence of the of agricultural exports in the case of the individual accession negotiations that took place in 1995– countries, we fi nd that the lists match only in the 2003 and through the infl uence of developments case of 9 aggregations, indicative of the fact that since the Czech Republic joined the EU, Czech although the individual countries have a very agricultural exports have strongly increased their similar commodity structure of agricultural exports, standing within the context of the economy and the stimuli of the external and internal environment within the context of agricultural trade as a whole. infl uence development of the value of agricultural More than ¾ of the aggregations are characterized exports of the individual countries manifest by a high level of sensitivity to changes to the themselves with respect to the development of the external environment, as was shown especially actual value of individual aggregations in the cases in 2004–2008 by the sharp increase of the traded of the individual V4 countries in very diff erent ways. value of Czech agricultural and food exports. It is important to mention that as with Poland, the high Hungary level of elasticity of exports (positive in this case) In the case of Hungary, it can be observed that manifests itself both in the case of aggregations with the pillars of Hungarian agricultural exports that a small share of traded value, and particularly in the accounted for more than two thirds of the value of set of aggregations that represent a large share. It total agricultural exports in 1993–2008 have very is also interesting that in 1993–2008, aggregations low elasticity in relation to changes to the external with an above-average level of elasticity in the and internal environment. Aggregations with context of the national commodity structure of above-average elasticity values, both with respect to exports accounted for ca. 65% of the resultant value the average for Hungarian agricultural trade and to of agricultural exports of the Czech Republic. As agricultural trade in the Visegrad Group countries, far as the aggregations are concerned, the elasticity accounted in 1993–2008 for approximately 38% and of which exceeded the average value of elasticity of 30% respectively of the value of total exports. On the market for agricultural exports of countries of the basis of the facts stated, one may understand the the Visegrad Group, their share in the total value of stagnation of Hungarian agricultural trade, where it agricultural exports of the Czech Republic in 1993– can be seen that the aggregations constituting the 2008 reached the level of 53%. This is indicative pillar of value are developing over time only slowly, of the fact that Czech agricultural exports are while there is generally dynamic growth only in developing very dynamically and react sensitively aggregates with a low share of the resultant value of to changes to the environment, to which they then realized trades. adapt. Poland Slovakia In the case of Poland, it is apparent that among The last of the analyzed countries is Slovakia. the items with a high degree of fl exibility are In recent years, Slovak exports have reacted more both aggregations with a high share of realized than Czech exports to changes to the internal exchange and aggregations with a very low share. and external economic environment. The value Nonetheless, it should be said that aggregations of exports has grown very dynamically, thanks with above-average value of elasticity in the context also to the high degree of elasticity in the case of of Polish agricultural exports or in the context of the individual aggregations of the commodity exports of Visegrad Group countries account for structure of Slovak agricultural exports. In 1993– approximately 40% and 70% respectively of the 2008, more than thirty aggregations of Slovak resultant value of Polish agricultural exports. It exports showed an elasticity fi gure greater than follows from this that the majority of aggregations 1. Approximately 27 aggregations have shown an of Polish agricultural exports react very sensitively above-average elasticity fi gure in comparison with to changes to the external and internal environment. the average for Visegrad Group countries, and of These reactions, especially in 2004–2008, have those, approximately 21 aggregations have shown had a very powerful eff ect. Agricultural exports above-average fl exibility in comparison with the have reacted very sensitively to change to the average commodity structure of Slovak agricultural environment, especially in relation to the EU27 exports. The share of individual aggregations with market and also in relation to markets of the new EU an above-average value in the total value of Slovak member states, and have been able to benefi t from agricultural exports in 1993–2008 varied at around these changes. 53% in the case of the national average and at around The analysis of individual Visegrad group members’ agrarian export sensitivity 333 V: Elasticity of individual aggregations of Czech agricultural exports to changes to the external and internal economic environment in 1993– 2008 Czech – World Czech EU15 EU12 World World Czech EU15 EU12 agrarian EU trade Agrarian agrarian agrarian Agrarian trade GDP GDP GDP GDP export GDP GDP GDP GDP S3-001 1.933 1.963 2.328 1.188 2.361 1.211 2.712 2.144 4.204 2.061 S3-011 1.565 1.525 1.824 0.973 1.691 1.003 2.252 1.729 2.296 1.647 S3-012 1.965 1.983 2.423 1.234 2.418 1.260 2.704 2.206 3.727 2.068 S3-016 5.526 5.502 6.424 3.349 6.303 3.422 7.900 5.967 11.358 5.744 S3-017 2.908 2.920 3.396 1.759 3.386 1.793 4.134 3.190 6.227 3.059 S3-022 2.269 2.287 2.741 1.393 2.735 1.425 3.190 2.479 4.737 2.387 S3-023 0.518 0.531 0.557 0.293 0.603 0.297 0.774 0.571 1.850 0.599 S3-024 1.311 1.316 1.610 0.819 1.591 0.836 1.793 1.444 2.360 1.351 S3-025 1.119 1.140 1.335 0.690 1.369 0.695 1.563 1.256 2.610 1.197 S3-034 1.102 1.116 1.361 0.690 1.368 0.701 1.488 1.224 2.219 1.148 S3-035 3.411 3.442 4.067 2.082 4.102 2.118 4.807 3.802 7.594 3.631 S3-036 1.465 1.456 1.785 0.914 1.736 0.938 2.085 1.597 2.769 1.529 S3-037 2.583 2.624 3.189 1.605 3.218 1.641 3.600 2.869 5.496 2.733 S3-041 2.489 2.519 3.064 1.542 3.017 1.579 3.438 2.751 4.637 2.542 S3-042 1.694 1.705 1.836 0.974 1.892 0.981 2.452 1.884 4.901 1.811 S3-043 2.948 3.008 3.734 1.843 3.755 1.892 3.992 3.178 5.564 3.012 S3-044 3.965 3.982 4.788 2.464 4.713 2.506 5.494 4.304 7.219 4.074 S3-045 2.656 2.702 3.420 1.669 3.430 1.725 3.628 2.800 4.820 2.743 S3-046 0.289 0.286 0.225 0.149 0.188 0.147 0.570 0.494 1.300 0.409 S3-047 0.240 0.230 0.328 0.144 0.327 0.149 0.377 0.272 0.266 0.301 S3-048 1.882 1.894 2.253 1.161 2.250 1.179 2.621 2.112 3.970 1.977 S3-054 1.163 1.184 1.313 0.686 1.347 0.695 1.716 1.275 3.033 1.255 S3-056 2.188 2.204 2.696 1.364 2.680 1.396 3.009 2.373 4.081 2.260 S3-057 2.434 2.472 3.034 1.511 3.052 1.545 3.336 2.723 4.796 2.546 S3-058 0.969 0.981 1.125 0.576 1.177 0.579 1.328 1.115 2.627 1.057 S3-059 1.264 1.265 1.592 0.788 1.574 0.810 1.699 1.347 2.419 1.301 S3-061 1.875 1.928 2.434 1.187 2.480 1.206 2.499 2.173 3.633 2.025 S3-062 1.970 2.010 2.539 1.271 2.556 1.293 2.622 2.247 3.623 2.057 S3-071 1.826 1.851 2.338 1.170 2.321 1.199 2.418 2.046 2.982 1.866 S3-072 −0.471 −0.434 −0.089 −0.087 −0.088 −0.102 −0.991 −0.301 −2.110 −0.533 S3-073 2.042 2.065 2.452 1.257 2.466 1.277 2.850 2.263 4.400 2.151 S3-074 3.254 3.240 3.756 1.971 3.694 2.017 4.680 3.534 6.866 3.384 S3-075 0.342 0.335 0.326 0.198 0.324 0.198 0.519 0.361 0.869 0.362 S3-081 2.169 2.178 2.610 1.339 2.587 1.365 3.034 2.401 4.350 2.266 S3-091 1.669 1.674 1.937 0.993 1.952 1.012 2.339 1.803 3.960 1.765 S3-098 2.110 2.115 2.536 1.304 2.517 1.328 2.923 2.335 4.228 2.197 S3-111 2.393 2.385 3.008 1.515 2.918 1.557 3.254 2.554 3.776 2.430 S3-112 1.444 1.464 1.746 0.891 1.768 0.906 2.012 1.608 3.157 1.528 S3-121 4.069 4.092 4.966 2.520 4.929 2.567 5.623 4.380 8.063 4.246 S3-122 1.471 1.435 1.668 0.898 1.598 0.912 2.043 1.622 2.504 1.490 S3-411 0.906 0.932 0.995 0.518 1.049 0.519 1.377 0.922 2.588 0.937 S3-421 2.676 2.663 3.171 1.636 3.090 1.674 3.779 2.923 5.039 2.768 S3-422 0.622 0.691 0.534 0.311 0.690 0.293 1.041 0.874 3.659 0.825 S3-431 0.898 0.910 1.013 0.540 1.038 0.544 1.278 1.027 2.171 0.955 Total 1.890 1.904 2.292 1.169 2.285 1.192 2.621 2.093 3.800 1.977 Source: UN Comtrade, 2010 + our own work 334 M. Svatoš, L. Smutka VI: Elasticity of individual aggregations of Slovak agricultural exports to changes to the external and internal economic environment in 1993–2008 Slovak – World Slovak EU15 EU12 World World Slovak EU15 EU12 agrarian EU trade Agrarian agrarian agrarian Agrarian trade GDP GDP GDP GDP export GDP GDP GDP GDP S3-001 2.185 2.219 2.711 1.386 2.738 1.388 3.012 2.275 4.450 2.292 S3-011 2.065 2.147 2.676 1.365 2.774 1.335 2.790 2.220 4.118 2.191 S3-012 3.261 3.309 4.056 2.076 4.070 2.079 4.482 3.350 6.385 3.424 S3-016 3.319 3.349 4.110 2.079 4.098 2.091 4.488 3.310 5.725 3.396 S3-017 3.853 3.874 4.621 2.357 4.600 2.407 5.401 3.771 7.691 4.004 S3-022 3.117 3.139 3.821 1.960 3.792 1.982 4.318 3.166 6.008 3.245 S3-023 2.630 2.637 3.267 1.683 3.235 1.695 3.595 2.794 4.910 2.700 S3-024 2.183 2.203 2.671 1.371 2.661 1.381 3.003 2.219 4.202 2.270 S3-025 3.451 3.475 4.158 2.127 4.152 2.160 4.819 3.438 7.073 3.596 S3-034 1.536 1.575 1.958 1.003 2.000 0.985 2.064 1.668 3.151 1.626 S3-035 0.093 0.056 −0.088 −0.029 −0.008 −0.015 0.184 0.089 1.509 0.180 S3-036 1.190 1.202 1.299 0.693 1.276 0.730 1.723 1.102 2.554 1.229 S3-037 3.154 3.154 3.682 1.910 3.651 1.955 4.431 3.082 6.525 3.308 S3-041 2.653 2.735 3.186 1.599 3.276 1.620 3.654 2.693 6.607 2.865 S3-042 1.020 0.980 0.941 0.490 1.012 0.504 1.507 0.848 3.991 1.128 S3-043 3.173 3.219 3.927 2.006 3.949 2.016 4.374 3.279 6.275 3.258 S3-044 2.511 2.538 3.060 1.563 3.069 1.581 3.458 2.596 5.055 2.602 S3-045 2.431 2.479 3.188 1.627 3.156 1.609 3.149 2.662 3.206 2.455 S3-046 3.834 3.875 4.454 2.278 4.500 2.336 5.474 3.713 9.471 4.115 S3-047 1.783 1.773 1.739 0.883 1.851 0.939 2.772 1.398 6.836 1.994 S3-048 1.880 1.899 2.299 1.187 2.288 1.195 2.581 1.946 3.699 1.958 S3-054 0.756 0.781 0.824 0.422 0.873 0.444 1.147 0.680 2.241 0.831 S3-056 1.387 1.392 1.639 0.837 1.635 0.856 1.946 1.355 2.934 1.462 S3-057 2.891 2.937 3.596 1.837 3.617 1.835 3.952 2.977 5.668 3.029 S3-058 2.644 2.658 3.194 1.640 3.178 1.671 3.704 2.674 5.252 2.730 S3-059 1.546 1.543 1.821 0.937 1.788 0.966 2.240 1.452 3.088 1.636 S3-061 2.881 2.926 3.706 1.883 3.735 1.864 3.858 3.147 5.431 3.009 S3-062 2.339 2.355 2.662 1.375 2.672 1.431 3.415 2.206 5.573 2.487 S3-071 3.784 3.753 4.393 2.256 4.266 2.351 5.415 3.571 7.431 3.912 S3-072 0.256 0.348 0.828 0.474 0.902 0.358 −0.086 1.042 −1.169 0.197 S3-073 2.354 2.388 2.915 1.495 2.934 1.495 3.231 2.453 4.819 2.482 S3-074 2.298 2.266 2.687 1.404 2.532 1.467 3.230 2.200 3.506 2.349 S3-075 1.207 1.240 1.368 0.703 1.412 0.724 1.765 1.087 3.000 1.285 S3-081 1.510 1.489 1.770 0.912 1.730 0.934 2.115 1.463 2.999 1.556 S3-091 −0.557 −0.635 −0.769 −0.403 −0.835 −0.400 −0.796 −0.699 −1.235 −0.641 S3-098 2.176 2.192 2.728 1.388 2.706 1.391 2.971 2.243 3.993 2.237 S3-111 2.460 2.483 3.199 1.638 3.149 1.627 3.274 2.697 3.853 2.528 S3-112 0.367 0.394 0.268 0.142 0.374 0.161 0.643 0.280 2.414 0.483 S3-121 0.093 0.058 0.269 0.155 0.213 0.114 −0.042 0.280 −0.865 0.031 S3-122 −1.197 −1.184 −1.580 −0.798 −1.501 −0.802 −1.596 −1.266 −1.324 −1.212 S3-411 1.517 1.552 1.982 1.028 2.000 1.004 1.999 1.748 2.835 1.607 S3-421 1.382 1.416 1.840 0.959 1.879 0.920 1.759 1.667 2.571 1.451 S3-422 2.863 2.853 3.097 1.633 3.052 1.705 4.263 2.430 7.006 3.095 S3-431 2.340 2.385 2.917 1.504 2.956 1.484 3.190 2.369 4.692 2.481 Total 2.214 2.240 2.719 1.392 2.727 1.401 3.051 2.278 4.478 2.317 Source: UN Comtrade, 2010 + our own work The analysis of individual Visegrad group members’ agrarian export sensitivity 335 VII: Elasticity of individual aggregations of Polish agricultural exports to changes to the external and internal economic environment in 1993–2008 Polish – World Polish EU15 EU12 World World Polish EU15 EU12 agrarian EU trade Agrarian agrarian agrarian Agrarian trade GDP GDP GDP GDP export GDP GDP GDP GDP S3-001 0.761 0.792 0.970 0.480 1.020 0.477 1.011 0.627 1.724 0.810 S3-011 3.808 3.825 4.621 2.560 4.567 2.408 5.265 3.445 7.073 3.945 S3-012 2.847 2.876 3.496 1.903 3.495 1.804 3.917 2.545 5.649 2.962 S3-016 4.606 4.572 5.242 3.061 5.158 2.827 6.633 4.449 9.922 4.827 S3-017 1.214 1.192 1.282 0.759 1.310 0.688 1.742 1.242 3.408 1.314 S3-022 2.110 2.124 2.581 1.405 2.572 1.332 2.932 1.912 4.248 2.220 S3-023 2.516 2.573 3.132 1.662 3.212 1.602 3.488 2.291 5.793 2.724 S3-024 3.130 3.151 3.832 2.104 3.805 1.985 4.311 2.826 6.002 3.257 S3-025 4.788 4.803 5.700 3.194 5.652 3.002 6.741 4.397 9.783 4.980 S3-034 1.775 1.775 2.201 1.212 2.166 1.132 2.410 1.601 3.206 1.823 S3-035 3.616 3.653 4.465 2.414 4.456 2.294 4.974 3.224 7.077 3.772 S3-036 0.318 0.320 0.162 0.122 0.257 0.104 0.543 0.396 2.291 0.371 S3-037 2.125 2.137 2.579 1.429 2.558 1.344 2.929 1.929 4.101 2.205 S3-041 2.507 2.547 3.155 1.709 3.149 1.626 3.279 2.070 4.037 2.494 S3-042 2.848 2.862 3.176 1.814 3.231 1.676 4.100 2.852 7.602 3.049 S3-043 3.918 3.942 4.923 2.587 4.939 2.493 5.364 3.308 7.631 4.041 S3-044 3.394 3.471 4.449 2.280 4.434 2.201 4.459 2.800 4.883 3.452 S3-045 3.102 3.179 3.983 2.076 4.039 1.994 4.161 2.702 5.601 3.224 S3-046 1.984 1.998 2.039 1.207 2.110 1.103 2.932 2.146 6.345 2.201 S3-047 2.804 2.783 3.182 1.854 3.127 1.700 4.019 2.734 6.150 2.913 S3-048 3.087 3.106 3.775 2.070 3.759 1.954 4.253 2.789 6.078 3.218 S3-054 2.079 2.107 2.564 1.396 2.579 1.328 2.861 1.855 4.259 2.175 S3-056 1.679 1.682 2.100 1.150 2.067 1.078 2.264 1.503 2.941 1.729 S3-057 1.875 1.904 2.282 1.235 2.316 1.178 2.598 1.700 4.157 1.990 S3-058 1.346 1.353 1.639 0.908 1.628 0.855 1.851 1.197 2.570 1.380 S3-059 1.989 2.010 2.467 1.337 2.458 1.269 2.712 1.767 3.824 2.069 S3-061 1.297 1.302 1.620 0.858 1.625 0.816 1.746 1.130 2.404 1.351 S3-062 1.729 1.733 1.991 1.107 2.029 1.037 2.425 1.643 4.406 1.848 S3-071 1.802 1.771 2.198 1.253 2.102 1.147 2.472 1.666 2.862 1.817 S3-072 2.243 2.272 2.844 1.530 2.840 1.451 2.998 1.962 4.046 2.319 S3-073 2.175 2.173 2.660 1.464 2.634 1.371 2.979 1.994 4.279 2.273 S3-074 2.264 2.278 2.780 1.539 2.765 1.449 3.104 2.043 4.326 2.351 S3-075 2.719 2.737 3.317 1.814 3.311 1.711 3.768 2.478 5.403 2.840 S3-081 2.365 2.377 2.903 1.598 2.874 1.503 3.238 2.138 4.422 2.456 S3-091 2.734 2.701 3.158 1.849 3.061 1.687 3.856 2.617 5.151 2.797 S3-098 2.552 2.563 3.136 1.722 3.103 1.625 3.495 2.268 4.784 2.629 S3-111 2.511 2.564 3.029 1.608 3.072 1.562 3.540 2.187 5.495 2.644 S3-112 2.045 2.073 2.448 1.334 2.467 1.269 2.862 1.874 4.614 2.165 S3-121 2.597 2.580 3.139 1.768 3.071 1.647 3.609 2.372 4.681 2.672 S3-122 4.030 4.030 4.810 2.693 4.734 2.527 5.682 3.702 7.937 4.186 S3-411 2.137 2.141 2.502 1.418 2.476 1.309 2.988 2.044 4.327 2.218 S3-421 4.530 4.539 5.443 3.010 5.383 2.836 6.341 4.105 8.958 4.695 S3-422 2.629 2.589 3.031 1.808 2.934 1.645 3.793 2.549 5.282 2.694 S3-431 0.509 0.509 0.264 0.231 0.345 0.198 0.927 0.699 3.077 0.630 Total 2.316 2.331 2.822 1.548 2.812 1.461 3.196 2.092 4.602 2.413 Source: UN Comtrade, 2010 + our own work 336 M. Svatoš, L. Smutka VIII: Elasticity of individual aggregations of Hungarian agricultural exports to changes to the external and internal economic environment in 1993–2008 Hungarian World Hungarian EU15 EU12 World EU World Hungarian EU15 EU12 – agrarian Agrarian agrarian agrarian Agrarian trade trade GDP GDP GDP GDP export GDP GDP GDP GDP S3-001 0.931 0.924 1.109 0.600 1.080 0.578 1.299 0.931 1.865 0.977 S3-011 0.868 0.892 0.978 0.555 1.028 0.510 1.284 0.973 2.574 0.944 S3-012 0.597 0.600 0.709 0.394 0.715 0.369 0.827 0.606 1.411 0.640 S3-016 1.966 1.966 2.233 1.219 2.285 1.166 2.818 1.972 5.165 2.116 S3-017 0.417 0.415 0.412 0.209 0.447 0.220 0.621 0.378 1.532 0.478 S3-022 2.593 2.582 3.143 1.713 3.061 1.652 3.600 2.504 4.578 2.664 S3-023 0.113 0.197 0.145 0.141 0.296 0.078 0.133 0.223 1.044 0.179 S3-024 0.466 0.463 0.643 0.378 0.615 0.325 0.588 0.515 0.476 0.475 S3-025 0.790 0.805 0.918 0.537 0.953 0.492 1.084 0.828 1.877 0.834 S3-034 −0.633 −0.621 −0.956 −0.571 −0.881 −0.474 −0.781 −0.695 0.135 −0.607 S3-036 −0.445 −0.465 −0.325 −0.135 −0.379 −0.196 −0.830 −0.442 −2.166 −0.552 S3-037 1.238 1.438 1.944 1.441 2.280 0.889 1.364 2.045 3.405 1.363 S3-041 2.164 2.184 2.519 1.362 2.512 1.328 3.014 2.121 4.834 2.305 S3-042 4.944 4.872 5.382 2.850 5.116 2.990 7.321 4.889 9.759 5.125 S3-043 3.335 3.334 3.944 2.147 3.888 2.083 4.692 3.252 6.747 3.479 S3-044 2.740 2.735 3.304 1.817 3.265 1.738 3.827 2.642 5.413 2.836 S3-045 0.598 0.615 0.598 0.305 0.676 0.323 0.852 0.530 2.309 0.677 S3-046 0.803 0.790 0.698 0.276 0.702 0.394 1.226 0.606 3.246 0.921 S3-047 1.248 1.247 1.573 0.882 1.542 0.813 1.663 1.265 2.278 1.287 S3-048 1.806 1.809 2.179 1.205 2.157 1.138 2.477 1.799 3.511 1.881 S3-054 0.781 0.793 0.949 0.534 0.960 0.492 1.076 0.810 1.765 0.825 S3-056 0.937 0.945 1.156 0.652 1.154 0.595 1.263 0.958 1.848 0.973 S3-057 0.659 0.668 0.715 0.415 0.750 0.394 0.982 0.728 1.943 0.725 S3-058 1.075 1.092 1.272 0.714 1.297 0.668 1.532 1.113 2.530 1.146 S3-059 −0.119 −0.100 −0.281 −0.170 −0.203 −0.142 −0.073 −0.067 1.157 −0.048 S3-061 2.573 2.609 3.170 1.774 3.188 1.631 3.497 2.599 5.085 2.683 S3-062 1.334 1.351 1.509 0.903 1.536 0.820 1.876 1.556 3.113 1.447 S3-071 2.783 2.807 3.444 1.919 3.429 1.774 3.828 2.810 5.445 2.890 S3-072 0.506 0.622 0.654 0.535 0.940 0.275 0.747 1.207 4.253 0.740 S3-073 1.192 1.211 1.438 0.803 1.463 0.739 1.637 1.215 2.710 1.259 S3-074 1.845 1.876 2.241 1.263 2.280 1.150 2.543 1.912 4.171 1.937 S3-075 −0.014 −0.002 −0.095 −0.057 −0.044 −0.041 0.017 −0.011 0.790 0.026 S3-081 2.302 2.333 2.922 1.677 2.913 1.498 3.100 2.442 4.164 2.386 S3-091 1.565 1.620 2.111 1.265 2.152 1.054 2.019 1.790 2.766 1.610 S3-098 1.320 1.316 1.487 0.780 1.470 0.796 1.896 1.236 2.904 1.385 S3-111 1.704 1.674 1.901 0.995 1.893 1.017 2.425 1.536 4.089 1.798 S3-112 −0.041 −0.003 −0.228 −0.144 −0.118 −0.103 0.068 −0.003 1.676 0.067 S3-121 1.116 1.167 1.534 0.988 1.614 0.770 1.443 1.500 2.539 1.243 S3-122 0.267 0.186 0.104 −0.124 0.020 0.076 0.562 −0.080 1.265 0.290 S3-411 0.522 0.540 0.527 0.307 0.584 0.290 0.844 0.619 2.008 0.602 S3-421 1.482 1.476 1.644 0.887 1.661 0.883 2.115 1.383 3.355 1.552 S3-422 4.287 4.313 5.057 2.827 5.038 2.684 6.040 4.376 9.128 4.478 S3-431 1.521 1.534 1.999 1.125 1.990 1.011 1.987 1.525 2.614 1.551 Total 1.299 1.308 1.541 0.850 1.546 0.807 1.812 1.296 2.876 1.371 Source: UN Comtrade, 2010 + our own work