The 2009 Presidential and Provincial Council Elections in Afghanistan National Democratic Institute The 2009 Presidential and Provincial Council Elections in Afghanistan National Democratic Institute National Democratic Institute 2030 M Street NW, Fifth Floor Washington, DC 20036 USA Tel: (202) 728 5500 Fax: (202) 728 5520 www.ndi.org www.afghanistanelectiondata.org The National Democratic Institute (NDI) is a nonprofit, nonpartisan, nongovernmental organization that responds to the aspirations of people around the world to live in democratic societies that recognize and promote basic human rights. Since its founding in 1983, NDI and its local partners have worked to support and strengthen democratic institutions and practices by strengthening political parties, civic organizations and parliaments, safeguarding elections, and p romoting citizen participation, openness and accountability in government. Currently, NDI works in over 70 countries. With staff members and volunteer political practitioners from more than 100 nations, NDI brings together individuals and groups to share ideas, knowledge, experiences and expertise. Partners receive broad exposure to best practices in international democratic development that can be adapted to the n eeds of their own countries. The Institute ’s multinational approach reinforces the message that while there is no single democratic model, certain core principles are shared by all democracies. NDI’s work upholds the principles enshrined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. It also promotes the development of institutionalized chan nels of communications among citizens, political institutions and elected officials, and strengthens their ability to improve the quality of life for all citizens. Copyright © National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI) 2010. All rights reserved. Portions of this work may be reproduced and/or translated for noncommercial purposes provided NDI is acknowledged as the source of the material and is sent copies of any translation. A CKNOWLEDGEMENTS The National Democratic Institute is deeply grateful for the welcome and cooperation it received from Afghan voters and election officials , candidates and their supporters , political party leaders and members, domestic election observers and civic activists. More than 100 Afghan and international observers, analysts and staff dedicated their time and expertise to the Institute’s 2009 election monitoring effort. The mission’s reports and statements, issued th roughout the electoral process, were based on findings and information gathered by mission participants deployed across Afghanistan. The Institute wishes to express its appreciation to Brian Bennett, the mission’s report coordinator and the principal author of this publication. The mission and its final report were completed under the supervision of Peter Manikas, NDI Director of Asia Programs. Raissa Tatad-Hazell, NDI Senior Program Manager for Asia, Luke Wagner, NDI Senior Program Assistant for Afghanistan and Rob Runyan, NDI Senior Public Affairs Assistant provided assistance in editing and compiling this report. NDI’s 2009 election observation mission and this report were made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) under Award No. 306 -A-00-08-00529-00 under Leader Cooperative Agreement No. DGC -A-00-01-00004-00. The opinions expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government. The 2009 observation mission builds upon NDI’s global experience NDI in monitoring more than 200 elections over the past 25 years as well Afghanistan as its election-related and operational experience in Afghanistan. The Institute arrived in Afghanistan in early 2002 and has conducted programs to promo te the participation of Afghan civic groups, political parties and government bodies in the country’s political and electoral processes. For the 2004 presidential and 2005 parliamentary and provincial council elections, NDI conducted technical assistance programs that engaged over 60,000 participants – including candidates, campaign staff and polling agents. It also assisted in the establishment of the Free and Fair Elections Foundation of Afghanistan (FEFA), an Afghan election monitoring network that conducted the most extensive domestic observation effort for the 2005 elections. Currently, NDI has seven regional offices throughout Afghanistan and its operations are staffed by over 100 Afghan employees. For the 2009 elections, the Institute’s programs were funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) , the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Supporting Electoral and Political Processes To support the 2009 elections, NDI implemented programs to promote the effective participation of political parties, candidates and local civil society monitoring groups. The Institute worked with trainers of political parties on the development of key skills, including political campaign management and direct voter contact. In addition, NDI offered technical guidance to smaller political parties on approaches to strengthen their internal structures, help them build coalitions, and better position themselves to compete in the political environment. The Institute also responded to requests for technical assistance from FEFA in the days leading up to the election. In addition, NDI conducted a program to promote women’s political participation and support Afghan women candidates co mpeting in the 2009 provincial council elections. The Institute organized Women in Politics Campaign Schools for candidates, utilizing a curriculum specifically adapted to the needs of Afghan women. More than 70% of women candidates across the country, representing 32 of the 34 provinces, participated in these activities. NDI also implemented a program to strengthen the capacity of candidate polling agents to observe and report on election- day activities. Through a pool of 80 Afghan master trainers, NDI supported workshops across Afghanistan to help more than 31,000 candidates and agents learn about election processes and procedures, effective election administration, and the rights and obligations of polling agents. Strengthening National and Local Gover nance After the 2005 elections, NDI implemented programs to help strengthen political processes in the National Assembly and provincial councils. Activity areas in the National Assembly included supporting the development of a women’s legislative network, advising parliamentary leaders on legislative rules of procedure, coordinating a parliamentary internship program, and providing professional development training to parliamentary staff. NDI also assisted five parliamentary commissions in adopting strategic workplans and coordinating oversight hearings. Through its regional offices, NDI assisted provincial councils to develop basic skills, such as holding public meetings and keeping records, and drafting provincial development plan recommendations in response to local needs through consultations with local community leaders and civil society organizations. To support these efforts, NDI coordinated a provincial council internship program that provided administrative and technical support to councilors and gave youth the opportunity to experience the operations of local government . Following the 2009 elections, the Institute initiated a nationwide program to assist all 34 newly elected provincial council s . Table of Contents I. Executive Summary....................................................................................................................1 II. The Observation Mission........................................................................................................4 Long-Term Observers.................................................................................................5 Long-Term Analysts.....................................................................................................5 Short-Term Observers................................................................................................6 Leadership Delegation................................................................................................6 III. Electoral History and Legal Framework..........................................................................6 Fall of the Taliban.........................................................................................................6 The Bonn Agreement...................................................................................................7 The 2004 Presidential Elections.............................................................................8 The 2005 Parliamentary and Provincial Council Elections..........................9 The Electoral Framework..........................................................................................9 The Independent Election Commission..............................................................10 The Electoral Complaints Commission...............................................................11 The Electoral System.................................................................................................13 IV. Preparations for the 2009 Elections...............................................................................13 Attempts to Reform the Election Law..................................................................14 Voter Registration......................................................................................................14 Decision to Postpone Election Day.......................................................................17 The Security Environment for Elections............................................................17 Political Party Registration.....................................................................................18 Candidate Registration.............................................................................................19 V. The Pre-Election Period........................................................................................................19 Election Day Security Planning..............................................................................19 Recruitment of Election Officials..........................................................................21 Training of Election Officials..................................................................................22 Distribution of Materials..........................................................................................23 The Polling Center List..............................................................................................23 Voter and Civic Education........................................................................................24 Vetting Candidates.....................................................................................................24 VI. The Campaigns........................................................................................................................25 The Presidential Campaign.....................................................................................25 The Provincial Council Campaigns.......................................................................26 Political Parties and Campaigns............................................................................27 Campaign Finance.......................................................................................................28 Media...............................................................................................................................28 Presidential Debates.................................................................................................29 Violence to Candidates..............................................................................................29 Candidate Withdrawals............................................................................................31 VII. Participation of Women.....................................................................................................31 Security and Women..................................................................................................32 Cultural Barriers.........................................................................................................33 Public Debate on Women’s Rights........................................................................33 The Quota System.......................................................................................................34 The SNTV System and Women...............................................................................34 VIII. Election Day...........................................................................................................................35 Violence on Election Day...........................................................................................35 Media Blackout.............................................................................................................35 Voter Intimidation.......................................................................................................36 Opening of Polling Centers and Stations.............................................................36 Voter Turnout...............................................................................................................37 Voting Process...............................................................................................................38 Female Polling Staff....................................................................................................39 Campaigning on Election Day..................................................................................40 Counting of Votes.........................................................................................................40 Political Party and Candidate Agents...................................................................41 Domestic and International Observers...............................................................42 IX. The Post-Election Period.....................................................................................................43 The Tally Center...........................................................................................................43 Release of Results........................................................................................................43 Audit and Recount.......................................................................................................45 Complaints.....................................................................................................................46 Types of Fraud..............................................................................................................47 Results of the Presidential Election......................................................................47 Results of the Provincial Council Election..........................................................48 X. The Runoff..................................................................................................................................49 Polling Centers..............................................................................................................50 Vetting Election Officials...........................................................................................50 Women’s Participation..............................................................................................50 Campaign Period..........................................................................................................51 Voter Education............................................................................................................51 Security............................................................................................................................51 Observers and Party Agents....................................................................................52 Abdullah’s Withdrawal..............................................................................................52 The IEC Decision to Cancel the Runoff..................................................................52 XI. Election Data Mapping.........................................................................................................54 XII. Recommendations................................................................................................................58 Appendices A. NDI 2009 Election Observation Mission Personnel................................................................67 B. Voter Registration..................................................................................................................................71 C. Historical Turnout..................................................................................................................................72 D. Polling Center and Stations................................................................................................................73 E. Presidential Election: The Tally and the Results.......................................................................75 F. Votes for Women Presidential Candidates..................................................................................78 G. Detecting Election Irregularities.....................................................................................................79 H. Valid Votes Cast in Polling Stations, Frequency of the Number of Ballots per Box...80 I. Valid Votes Cast in Polling Stations, Presidential and Provincial Council Races..........81 J. Valid Votes Cast in Polling Stations, By Leading Presidential Candidates......................82 K. NDI 2009 Election Observation Mission Preliminary Statement Issued August 22, 2009......................................................................................................................83 L. NDI Expresses Concern About Afghanistan Election Fraud Complaints Issued September 9, 2009.................................................................................................................97 M. NDI Recommends Improved Security, Other Measures to Avoid Problems in Afghanistan Runoff Election, Issued October 21, 2009...................................................99 N. High-Level Review is Needed for Afghan Electoral Reform Issued November 3, 2009...............................................................................................................101 I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY On August 20, 2009 Afghans voted to elect a president and members of provincial councils for the second time in the nation’s history. The elections were the first to be organized primarily by Afghan institutions and preparations for the elections took place amid armed conflict in the southern and eastern regions and sporadic violence in other areas of the country. The polling was marred by widespread fraud particularly in areas most affected by the insurgency . The final provincial council results w ere delayed for almost four months as electoral complaints were adjudicated and audits as well as recounts were conducted. Afghanistan’s Independent Election Commission (IEC) announced a runoff election between Hamid Karzai and former foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah after no single candidate received more than 50 percent of the valid votes cast. On November 1, six days before the scheduled runoff, Abdullah announced he would not participate since adequate measures had not been taken to prevent the recurrence of fraud. The IEC cancelled the runoff and declared Karzai the winner of the 2009 presidential election. Karzai was sworn in as president on November 19 . Security affected every aspect of the electoral process in Afghanistan. As election day neared, the Taliban and other anti -government militants attempted to disrupt the polls through calls for a boycott, threats to retaliate against voters and violence directed at candidates and their supporters. Other militant groups also contributed to the overal l instability of some locations. Despite the intimidation and violence, candidates campaigned actively and Afghan citizens demonstrated a keen interest in the electoral process. On August 20, the continuing violence often targeted polling sites and sometimes on voters themselves. Nevertheless, Afghans throughout the country participated in the electoral process, often at great personal risk. The Afghan people showed extraordinary courage and resolve in holding these elections and attempting to move the nati on forward on a democratic path. The elections, however, involved serious flaws that must be addressed in order to build greater confidence in the integrity of future elections. Much work, for example, is needed to improve the electoral administration. Delays in funding from donor countries and poor allocation of international resources stunted election preparations. A flawed registration process led to multiple registrations and the registration of ineligible voters. As a result, there is widespread agreement that substantially more Afghans are registered to vote than there are eligible voters. This leaves the door open for fraud and other types of misconduct, and, if not remedied, could further erode the Afghan people’s confidence in the integrity of the electoral process. Other abuses, such as misuse of state resources, were observed in some areas of the country and adversely affected the credibility of the electinos. The fraud on election day was systematic and widespread. After vetting the results, the IEC excluded 18 percent of the votes from the final tally. While fraud was found to affect all top presidential candidates, Karzai stood to benefit most from the fraudulent votes. Seventy-six percent of the votes removed were marked in Karzai’s favor. Ballot box stuffing was the most common method of fraud. There is evidence of ballot box stuffing across Afghanistan. Most suspicious boxes , however, were found in the south, southeast, east and central regions of the country. A lack of transparency from the 1 IEC about the allocation of polling stations planned for election day initially masked the extent of the fraud. The high frequency of suspicious boxes correlated with a lack of security and poor recruitment of election officials. In the months following the August 20 polling, the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) reviewed over 2,000 complaints and examined a sample of suspicious ballot boxes, finding that no presidential candidate passed the 50 percent threshold. Election officials discussed measures to reduce the potential for fraud in the days before the November 7 runoff, although no major reforms could be carried out. Allegations of electoral fraud and other concerns surrounding the presidential vote tally also affected the provincial council vote count. In response to complaints received from candidates and polling agents, the ECC investigated cases and found indicators of fraud, such as lists of voters with fictitious voter card numbers and ballot box seal numbers that did not match figures on the official record. Responding to concerns that little had been done to prevent fraud from marring future elections, NDI called for a rigorous and impartial inquiry concerning the failures of the 2009 election process. The inquiry, described in a stateme nt by NDI on November 3, should be conducted by noted international and Afghan experts to reduce political tensions, establish credibility for future Afghan elections and reinforce the legitimacy of the Afghan governing institutions and the effectiveness o f international electoral assistance.1 In addition , NDI developed a comprehensive website to provide detailed information on election data, publicly available as a reference tool.2 The Institute also expressed concern over the lack of public confidence in the neutrality of the IEC.3 The IEC, whose members are appointed by the President without legislative approval, is viewed by many key participants in the electoral process as beholden to the executive branch . While the commission performed many of its responsibilities well in 2009, its credibility depended not only on its actions but on the public’s perception of its impartiality. The rights of women in the electoral process require special attention. There has been a slow and modest increase in the numbers of women engaging in the political process in Afghanistan , however barriers still prevent their full participation. Women candidates and political activists, for instance, were frequently the targets of threats of violence, impeding their ability to campaign freely. Women provincial council candidates indicated to NDI observers that their ability to campaign was negatively affected by the lack of security. The IEC ’s difficulty in recruiting sufficient female staff to administ er women’s polling stations deterred women from casting their ballots. Women were vulnerable to practices such as proxy voting, and, because the photograph on their voting card was optional, women were also most vulnerable to identity fraud. 1 http://www.ndi.org/node/15870 2 http://www.ndi.org/NDI_Launches_Website_that_Adds_Transparency_to_Afghanistan_Election_Dat a 3 In April 2010, IEC Chairman Azizullah Ludin and the commission’s Chief Electoral Officer Daoud Ali Najafi resigned. A new chairman, Fazel Ahmad Manavi, was appointed. 2