The Center for Public Opinion Saudi Arabians Overwhelmingly Reject Bin Laden, Al Qaeda, Saudi Fighters in Iraq, and Terrorism; Also among most pro-American in Muslim world. Results of a New Nationwide Public Opinion Survey of Saudi Arabia Location: 5335 Wisconsin Ave. N.W. Suite 440, Washington, DC 20015 Mailing: P.O. Box 5704 ● Washington, DC 20016 P (202) 274-1800 ● F (202) 274-1821 www.TerrorFreeTomorrow.org Executive Summary Saudi Arabia is the birthplace of Islam and home to its holiest places. It is also the home country of Osama Bin Laden and 15 of the 19 9/11 terrorists. Yet, Bin Laden’s fellow countrymen have dramatically turned against him, his organization of Al Qaeda, Saudi fighters in Iraq, and terrorism itself. And they have also equally dramatically turned in favor of Bin Laden’s chief enemy: The United States of America. The people of Saudi Arabia are now among the most pro-American and anti-terrorist of any in the entire Muslim world. These are just some of the findings of an unprecedented and uncensored nationwide public opinion survey in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The survey was conducted by phone from November 30 to December 5, 2007 by Terror Free Tomorrow: The Center for Public Opinion and D3 Systems. Fully 69 percent of Saudis surveyed support strong and close relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia. Significantly, three-quarters of Saudis said their opinion of America would improve if the U.S. increased the number of visas for Saudis to study or work in the United States. Three-quarters of Saudis were also open to improved opinions if the U.S. took other actions, such as a free trade treaty, between Saudi Arabia and America. In fact, considering the most populous Muslim countries of the world, Saudis are among the most favorable to the United States. While currently half have an unfavorable opinion, 40 percent of Saudis expressed a favorable opinion of the U. S. This is a turnaround from just a year and a half ago. During May 2006, a smaller and more limited public opinion survey by Terror Free Tomorrow showed only 11 percent of Saudis had a favorable opinion of the United States. That percentage has now more than tripled, while unfavorable ratings have dropped from 89 percent to half. Contrast these numbers with Terror Free Tomorrow’s recent nationwide survey of Pakistan (19 percent favorable to the U.S.; 72 percent unfavorable), or other surveys of Turkey (9 percent favorable; 83 percent unfavorable; Egypt (21 percent favorable; 78 percent unfavorable), etc. From our surveys and others, there are only two major Muslim majority countries with a higher favorable opinion of the United States: Bangladesh and Iran. On Iraq, while Saudi citizens have been reported by the American military to comprise up to half of the foreign suicide bombers in Iraq, the Saudi public itself is strongly opposed to any Saudis fighting in Iraq and support working with the United States to help resolve the Iraq war instead. 2 63 percent of Saudis oppose their fellow citizens fighting against Shia militias in Iraq (66 percent against Sunni militias) and a plurality against U.S.–led coalition forces. Indeed, 69 percent of Saudis favor Saudi Arabia working with the United States to resolve the Iraq war. As they do not support their fellow citizens fighting in Iraq, Saudis also overwhelmingly disapprove of their compatriot Osama Bin Laden, as well as his organization Al Qaeda. Less than one in ten Saudis have a favorable opinion of Al Qaeda, and 88 percent approve the Saudi military and police pursuing Al Qaeda fighters. Only 15 percent of Saudis have a favorable opinion of Bin Laden himself. Upon closer analysis, however, even a favorable opinion of Bin Laden and Al Qaeda does not indicate hardened anti-American attitudes or support for terrorist attacks. Among Saudis who expressed a favorable opinion of Bin Laden, three-quarters said their opinion of the United States would improve if American policies changed—the same percentage of non-Bin Laden supporters who thought so. Two-thirds of Bin Laden and Al Qaeda supporters also favor strong and close relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia—again, basically the same percentage of Saudis who back close relations but have an unfavorable view of Bin Laden and Al Qaeda. And for those with a favorable opinion of Bin Laden and Al Qaeda, addressing the problem of terrorism is nothing less than the most important priority they have for the Saudi government, chosen by more than 90 percent. The idea of supporting Al Qaeda or Bin Laden does not equate with backing actual terrorist attacks. Nor does it mean immutable anti-American views. Saudis reject terrorism and are not clamoring for radical rule from Bin Laden and Al Qaeda; rather, for better relations with the United States. Other Important Findings In other important results, Saudis take a dim view of peace between Israel and Palestinians. Less than a third favor a peace treaty recognizing the State of Israel, even if an independent Palestinian state is established. A majority opposes a peace treaty or any recognition of the State of Israel. 89 percent have an unfavorable opinion of Jews. On Iran, 57 percent oppose the Iranian government developing nuclear weapons and a majority favors Saudi Arabia itself developing nuclear weapons (two-thirds nuclear energy). 3 To improve the opinion of the United States among Saudis, withdrawal of American forces from Iraq is the most important step, with 85 percent stating it would improve their opinion. This is followed by increasing visas for Saudis to come to the U.S. (74 percent); a free trade treaty between the United States and Saudi Arabia (71 percent); increased American military aid to Saudi Arabia (63 percent); the U.S. brokering a peace treaty between Israelis and Palestinians (52 percent); and lastly, the U.S. pushing to spread democracy in the Middle East at 36 percent. The U.S. government’s proposed sale of billions of dollars in advanced weaponry to the Saudi military is favored by less than half of all Saudis surveyed. Overall, the survey shows that Saudis are divided and struggling over the future direction of their country. When asked to choose the most important priorities for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, 93 percent picked reducing unemployment and inflation, followed by addressing the problem of terrorism (88 percent); providing financial assistance to foreign mosques (81 percent); ensuring a free press and free elections (80 percent); defeating Al Qaeda and other Jihadi groups (61 percent) and permitting women to drive (43 percent). The fact that 88 percent of Saudis support pursuing Al Qaeda fighters and also see addressing terrorism as an important government goal, yet 61 percent consider defeating Al Qaeda itself as important, reveals some ambivalence towards the idea of Al Qaeda as opposed to its actions, particularly inside Saudi Arabia itself. This is also mirrored by the fact that groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah have a third or more of Saudis expressing a favorable opinion, but terrorist attacks themselves are strongly disapproved. Similarly, while only 43 percent thought permitting women to drive was important, just 15 percent of Saudis surveyed agreed with the recent sentence of 200 lashes and six months imprisonment given to a 19-year old Shiite girl for being with a male acquaintance before she was gang-raped by seven men. Likewise, 80 percent of Saudis chose ensuring a free press and free elections as an important priority for their government at the same time 79 support an absolute monarchy. Support for King Abdullah is also very high, with 95 percent of Saudis saying they have a favorable opinion of the current Saudi monarch. And lastly, in the birthplace of Islam and home to Islam’s most sacred sites, while 89 percent of Saudis say they regularly pray five times a day, only half report that they actually attend mosque at least once a week. A full statement with charts, background, complete survey methods and basis for comparisons, and topline questions and answers follows. 4 Saudi Arabians Favor Close Relations with the United States: 69% 19% Favor Strong and Close Oppose Close Relations Relations between U.S. & between U.S. & Saudi Saudi Arabia Arabia Saudi Arabians Have Improved Views with New American Policies: 74% 15% U.S. Increasing Does not Visas to Saudis to Improve Saudi Work or Study in Opinion of America America at all Improves Saudi Opinion of America 5 Overall Opinion of Saudi Arabians on the United States*: 89% 52% 40% 11% Favorable Unfavorable Favorable Unfavorable Dec’07 Dec’07 May’06 May’06 Views of Saudi Arabians and Others toward the United States*: 69% of Saudis 68%of Iranians 40%of Syrians Favor Better U.S. Favor Better U.S. Favor Better U.S. Relations Relations Relations (Dec’07) (June’07) (July’07) * Sample in Saudi Arabia for 2006 survey was urban. For details, see the Methodology section which follows. Other surveys by Terror Free Tomorrow of Iran and Syria can be accessed at www.TerrorFreeTomorrow.org 6 Percent of Saudis Who Think the Following Improves Their Opinion of U.S.: 85% 74% 71% 63% 52% 36% Withdrawal America Free Trade Increasing America America of America Increasing Treaty America Brokering Pushing to Forces from Visas for between Military Comprehensive Spread Iraq Saudis to America & Assistance Peace between Democracy Study or Saudi to Saudi Israelis & in the Work in Arabia Arabia Palestinians Middle America East On U.S. Proposed Sale of Weapons to Saudi Arabia: 49% 32% Favor Sale of Oppose Sale Billions of Dollars in Advance Weaponry from U.S. to Saudi Arabia 7 Overall Views of U.S. from Saudi Arabia and Other Countries*: Favorable Opinion Unfavorable Opinion 83% 72% 78% 52% 40% 19% 21% 9% Saudi Arabia Pakistan Egypt Turkey Saudi Arabia Pakistan Egypt Turkey 12/ 07 08/07 05/07 05/07 12/07 08/07 05/07 05/07 (TF T (TFT (PEW (PEW (TFT (TFT (PEW (PEW Su rvey) Survey) Survey) Survey) Survey) Survey) Survey) Survey) * Details for survey comparisons are set forth in the Methodology section which follows. 8 On the Iraq War, Percent of Saudis who: 69% 62% 46% 30% 19% 17% Favor Helping Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Saudis Oppose America Helping Saudis Saudis Fighting in Saudis Resolve Iraq America Fighting in Fighting in Iraq against Fighting in War Resolve Iraq Iraq U.S.-led Iraq Iraq War against against Coalition against Shia Shia Forces U.S.-led Militia Militia Coalition Forces On Terrorism, Bin Laden and Al Qaeda: Addressing Terrorism Saudi Military Should Al Qaeda Osama Bin Laden Should Be Important Pursue Al Qaeda Priority for Saudi Fighters Arabia 88% 88% 65% 64% 10% 15% 10% 4% Important Not Favor Oppose Favorable Un- Favorable Un- Important Opinion favorable favorable 9 Views of Al Qaeda and Bin Laden Supporters*: Addressing Terrorism Should Be Strong & Close Relations between Important Priority for Saudi Arabia U.S. & Saudi Arabia 66% 95% 31% 4% Favor Oppose Important Not Priority Important Priority Bin Laden/Al Qaeda Supporters who think the Following Would Improve their opinion of U.S.*: 88% 75% 73% 67% 53% 42% Withdrawal of U.S. Free Trade Increasing U.S. Brokering U.S. U.S. Forces increasing Treaty U.S. Comprehensive Spreading from Iraq Visas for between Military Peace between Democracy Saudis to U.S. and Assistance Israelis and in Middle Study or Saudi to Saudi Palestinians East Work in Arabia Arabia America * Details for survey comparisons are set forth in the Methodology section which follows. 10