Terrorism, Elections, and Democracy PREVIOUS PUBLICATIONS Sarah Oates Introduction to Media and Politics (2008) Television, Democracy and Elections in Russia (2006) The Internet and Politics: Citizens, Voters and Activists (coeditor, 2006) Elections and Voters in Post-Communist Russia (coeditor, 1998) Lynda Lee Kaid The Encyclopedia of Political Communication (coeditor, 2008) The EU Expansion: Communicating Shared Sovereignty in the Parliamentary Elections (coeditor, 2008) The Handbook of Election News Coverage around the World (coeditor, 2008) The Sage Handbook of Political Advertising (coeditor, 2006) The Handbook of Political Communication Research (editor, 2004) Videostyle in Presidential Campaigns: Style and Content of Televised Political Advertising (coauthor, 2001) Mike Berry Israel and Palestine: Competing Histories (coauthor, 2006) Bad News from Israel (coauthor, 2004) Terrorism, Elections, and Democracy Political Campaigns in the United States, Great Britain, and Russia Sarah Oates, Lynda Lee Kaid, and Mike Berry TERRORISM, ELECTIONS, AND DEMOCRACY Copyright © Sarah Oates, Lynda Lee Kaid, and Mike Berry, 2010. Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2010 978-0-230-61357-7 All rights reserved. First published in 2009 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN® in the United States—a division of St. Martin’s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Where this book is distributed in the UK, Europe and the rest of the world, this is by Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN 978-1-349-37821-0 ISBN 978-0-230-10237-8 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/9780230102378 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available from the Library of Congress. A catalogue record of the book is available from the British Library. 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First edition: January 2010 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Contents List of Graphs and Tables vii Acknowledgments ix 1 Introduction 1 2 Candidate Messages and Terrorism in the U.S. 2004 Elections 23 3 A New U.S. News Paradigm?: Variation in Election Coverage 39 4 “Who Would Keep Me Safe?”: Americans, Terrorism, and Voting in the 2004 Presidential Elections 65 5 Terrorism, Media, and Elections in the United Kingdom 81 6 “I Think That Takes a Lot of Trust Away”: The British Audience, Elections, and Terrorism News 109 7 Limitless Threat, Limited Choices?: Party Messages and News Framing in the 2003 and 2004 Russian Elections 137 8 “One Continuous Grief”: The Russian Audience, Terrorism, and Elections 161 9 Conclusions 179 Appendix 191 Notes 217 References 223 Index 237 This page intentionally left blank Graphs and Tables Graphs 5.1 Percentage of Campaign Segments Featuring Party Leader and other MPs 99 5.2 Top 10 Campaign Issues plus Terrorism as Percentage of Frequency in Campaign Segments 100 Tables 2.1 Characteristics of 2004 Candidate and Group Ads 27 2.2 Emphasis on Specific Issues and Candidate Qualities in the 2004 Campaign Ads 28 2.3 2004 Ads with Terrorism Content 32 3.1 Issues in the 2004 Network News Coverage 44 3.2 Network Differences in Coverage of Terrorism in 2004 46 3.3 Framing Terrorism Coverage in 2004 49 3.4 Tone of Terrorism Coverage in 2004 56 3.5 Candidate Characteristics in Terrorism Stories 59 3.6 Effect of Terrorism Stories on Bush and Kerry 60 3.7 Appeals in News Stories about Terrorism 61 5.1 Percentage of Campaign Segments Featuring Selected Themes on BBC1 and ITV1 News 98 7.1 Television News Coverage of the Russian 2003 Duma Campaign: Top Topics 155 7.2 News Coverage Themes in the 2004 Russian Presidential Election Share of Coverage (%) 157 9.1 Comparison of TV News and Ads on Terrorism in the United States 187 This page intentionally left blank Acknowledgments In a broad perspective, this book addresses intersecting themes in politi- cal communication, comparative politics, and security studies. In a more pragmatic way, the genesis of this book lies in a missed meeting, a marginal cup of coffee, and a favor to a colleague at the University of Glasgow. The central idea for the book was suggested by Prof. Stuart Croft, director of the New Security Challenges program at the British Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) in the United Kingdom. Stuart had traveled to the University of Glasgow in 2003 to discuss the program with some academics, but the professor who studied Russia and international relations happened to have a class when he arrived. As a favor to the col- league and to show the polite face of the Politics Department, Sarah took Stuart to the Adam Smith Building common room for some coffee from a machine. On the way, she remarked that she had nothing to do with security in that she studied media and elections, mostly in Russia. Stuart perked up and immediately said that he thought media was an under- represented area in his grant program. Soon after, Sarah was making a surprise grant pitch, talking about how Russian leaders use security threat as a means of winning public support. While exploring the idea, it became clear that the role of terrorist threat in elections was by no means limited to the Russian case. As a former U.S. journalist, Sarah had to admit that it would be quite an important part of the U.S. 2004 elections as well. This led to the first ESRC grant award to support this book (Grant R223250028, The Framing of Terrorist Threat in U.S. and Russian Elections). At this point, Lynda agreed to come on board, and we were delighted that we were collaborating again. It is difficult to understand the role of campaign communication in one country—and very challeng- ing to try to compare it across country boundaries. Lynda also activated a network of U.S. scholars, including Mitchell McKinley, John Tedesco, and Andrew Williams as well as her smart team of graduate students at the University of Florida. They worked on a very modest budget, often volunteering their time, to create an impressive dataset for the U.S. 2004