Targeting Civilians in War A volume in the series Cornell Studies in Security Affairs edited by Robert J. Art Robert Jervis Stephen M. Walt A list of titles in this series is available at www.cornellpress.cornell.edu. Targeting Civilians in War Alexander B. Downes Cornell University Press ithaca and london Copyright © 2008 by Cornell University All rights reserved. Except for brief quotations in a review, this book, or parts thereof, must not be reproduced in any form without permission in writing from the publisher. For information, address Cornell University Press, Sage House, 512 East State Street, Ithaca, New York 14850. First published 2008 by Cornell University Press Printed in the United States of America Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Downes, Alexander B., 1969- Targeting civilians in war / Alexander B. Downes. p. cm. — (Cornell studies in security affairs) Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978–0–8014–4634–4 (cloth : alk. paper) 1. Civilian war casualties—History—20th century. 2. War victims—History—20th century. 3. War and society— History—20th century. 4. Politics and war—History—20th century. 5. Military history, Modern—20th century. I. Title. II. Series. U21.2.D587 2008 172'.42—dc22 2007040729 C ornell University Press strives to use environmentally responsible suppliers and materials to the fullest extent possible in the publishing of its books. Such materials include vegetable-based, low-VOC inks and acid-free papers that are recycled, totally chlorine-free, or partly composed of nonwood fi bers. For further information, visit our website at www.cornellpress.cornell.edu. Cloth printing 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Contents Acknowledgments vii Introduction 1 1. Defi ning and Explaining Civilian Victimization 13 2. Statistical Tests: Civilian Victimization, Mass Killing, and Civilian Casualties in Interstate Wars 42 3. The Starvation Blockades of World War I: Britain and Germany 83 4. Strategic Bombing in World War II: The Firebombing of Japan and the Blitz 115 5. Guerrilla Warfare, Counterinsurgency, and Civilian Victimization: The Second Anglo-Boer War 156 6. Territorial Annexation and Civilian Victimization: The Founding of the State of Israel, 1947–49 178 7. Negative Cases: Why Civilian Victimization Doesn’t Happen 210 Conclusion 243 Notes 259 Index 309 [v] Acknowledgments Over the course of researching and writing this book, I have benefi ted from the help and advice of many people. I owe a special debt of gratitude to John Mearsheimer. I arrived at the University of Chicago in the mid-1990s as a former classical musician nervously embarking on what I hoped would be a second career as a political scientist. John took a chance that some- one who had until recently spent much of his time practicing the works of Mozart, Beethoven, and Brahms could become an international relations scholar. I am immensely grateful that he did. John read and commented on numerous drafts of this manuscript, giving feedback that was always help- ful, and improved the fi nal product immeasurably. This book literally would not have been possible without the input of Robert Pape, who suggested the question to me in a brainstorming ses- sion in January 2001. “What if you could show that democracies were more moral in the way that they fought wars? Now that would be really some- thing,” he mused. I came to a different conclusion regarding the impact of democratic war-fi ghting on civilians, but that in no way diminished Bob’s enthusiasm for the project as it progressed. I thank him for his support. Charles Glaser and Stathis Kalyvas helped sharpen my arguments and pro- vided encouragement. A few other individuals made special inspirational or practical contribu- tions to this book. Benjamin Valentino, for example, was in many ways the trailblazer whose work on mass killing brought the study of civilian victim- ization into the mainstream of security studies. Ben met with me when I was starting the project and has provided helpful comments on my work as well as encouragement and advice along the way. I have been fortunate to have his path to follow. Ivan Arreguín-Toft generously shared his data on bar- barism in asymmetric confl icts and has provided constant encouragement. [vii] Acknowledgments Jasen Castillo, Kelly Greenhill, and Sebestian Rosato each offered not only extensive feedback on my ideas but also their friendship, support, and good humor, for which I am tremendously grateful. I thank Roger Haydon at Cor- nell University Press for his interest in and detailed comments on parts of the manuscript. I also thank those people who read and commented on various versions of this project over the past several years: Laia Balcells, Barton Bernstein, Kathryn Cochran, Michael Desch, Matthew Fehrs, Martha Finnemore, Christopher Gelpi, Hein Goemans, Peter Gourevitch, Colin Kahl, Robert Keohane, Helen Kinsella, Gregory Koblentz, Matthew Kocher, Eric Mvukiyehe, Richard Price, Dan Reiter, Thomas Spragens, and Elisabeth Wood. I also thank the two anon- ymous reviewers for Cornell University Press whose comments were espe- cially helpful. I apologize to anyone I may have forgotten. Several institutions provided generous fi nancial assistance that allowed me to conduct the research and writing for this book. I spent a fruitful year at the Olin Institute for Strategic Studies at Harvard University. I thank Stephen Rosen and Monica Duffy Toft for the opportunity to participate in Olin’s program and take advantage of Harvard’s many resources. I later received a year of support from the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) at Stanford University, where I profi ted from the guidance of Scott Sagan and Lynn Eden. Along the way I also received fi - nancial assistance from the Eisenhower Institute in the form of a Dwight D. Eisenhower/Clifford Roberts Graduate Fellowship, and the Harry Frank Guggenheim Foundation, which provided a dissertation fellowship. I also thank the Triangle Institute for Security Studies and the Arts and Sciences Council for Faculty Research at Duke University, both of which gave funds for research in the book’s fi nal phases. Parts of the introduction and chapters 1 through 3 previously appeared in my article “Desperate Times, Desperate Measures: The Causes of Civilian Victimization in War,” I nternational Security 30, no. 4 (spring 2006): 152–95. Parts of chapter 2 appeared as “Restraint or Propellant? Democracy and Civilian Fatalities in Interstate Wars,” J ournal of Confl ict Resolution 51, no. 6 (December 2007): 872–904. Some of the material on the Second Anglo-Boer War in chapter 5 appeared in “Draining the Sea by Filling the Graves: In- vestigating the Effectiveness of Indiscriminate Violence as a Counterinsur- gency Strategy,” C ivil Wars 9, no. 4 (December 2007): 420–44. I thank these journals and their publishers for granting me permission to adapt the mate- rial in this book. For excellent research assistance at Duke University, I thank Soo-Jung Choi, Max Entman, Chad Troop, but especially Katherine Jordan. Katherine was instrumental in helping me prepare the fi nal version of the manuscript and saved me from innumerable errors. I cannot thank her enough. I alone am responsible for any mistakes that remain. [viii] Acknowledgments On a personal note, I thank my parents, Bryan and Sheri Downes, for their love and support through thick and thin. They have always been there to help celebrate my successes and to help pick me up when I have stumbled. As a teacher and mentor I only hope I can live up to my father’s example, demonstrated by the outpouring of affection and thanks from his former students when he retired in 2001. Finally, I thank my wife, Tanya Schreiber, who has tirelessly endured many a furrowed brow these last several years. Not only has Tanya served as a sounding board and adviser for my work—I think she can explain my arguments better than I can—but she has coaxed me through the hard times and bad days when I thought I would never fi nish. Moreover, she has shown me by example how to persevere; her quiet courage in the face of adversity has inspired me more than she knows. I dedicate this book to her. [ix]