Date December, 2013 SUSTAINABLE SOCIETY DEVELOPMENT IN ARCTIC CITIES REPORT 2 3 CONTENT 1. Why this study? - Scope and objective 4 2. Summary and conclusions 5 3. A case study to gain perspective on the Arctic region 8 4. Driving forces in sustainable society development 10 5. Opportunities and challenges of six cities 13 5.1 Context of Arctic cities: challenges and opportunities 13 5.2 An introduction to case cities 14 5.3 Conclusions: City performance 18 5.4 Economy 21 5.5 Society 23 5.6 Climate and environment 28 5.7 Urban planning 29 5.8 Governance 30 6. Strategy and policy choices of focus cities 33 6.1 Conclusions: Focus on long-term sustainable development 34 6.2 Visions, potentials and challenges of focus cities 38 6.3 Economy 41 6.4 Society 42 6.5 Climate and environment 46 6.6 Urban planning 47 6.7 Governance 49 7. Case city reports 52 7.1 Tromsø 52 7.2 Narvik 58 7.3 Luleå 64 7.4 Gällivare 69 7.5 Oulu 75 7.6 Nuuk 81 SUPPLEMENTS APPENDIX 1 APPENDIX 4 Method and study design Rating of the cities APPENDIX 2 APPENDIX 5 Survey questions Key hypotheses APPENDIX 3 APPENDIX 6 Focus group Bibliography 4 1. WHY THIS STUDY? - SCOPE AND OBJECTIVE Modern society development is shaped by the global mega trends: Demographic changes, urbanization, climate change and environmental hazards, natural resource shortages, increasing globalization and more multipolar and diverse power configurations of key global actors. The ageing of populations, increased migration, the demand for cohesive and sustainable models for urbanization, global warming, heightened pressure for natural resource extraction and intensified global competition, bring forward new challenges and opportunities for societies – at global and local level. Locally, the mega trends shape societies in different ways, depending not only on structural differences such as climate, geography, natural resources etc., but also on differences in policy choices, political opportunity structures, culture and expectations from society. In the Arctic Region the trends manifest themselves most prevalently in terms of global climate changes giving rise to new opportunities in terms of natural resources extraction, new trade routes and an increased geo-strategic interest in the region from global and powerful stakeholders within business, civil society, state and supra-state political actors. The region is also marked by a general movement from periphery to center, urbanization and depopulation of rural areas. As in the rest of the world, changes imply both opportunities and threats to the region and local communities and in a context of growing competition between cities, different measures are applied, shaped not only by context conditions but also policy choices and strategies of cities. Through a case study of six Arctic cities in four countries, this analysis aims to provide insight into the dynamics of urban development and the strategic options of decision makers in the Arctic region. Looking at three mid-size knowledge cities (Luleå, Tromsø and Oulu), two smaller natural-resource driven cities (Gällivare and Narvik) and one capital (Nuuk), the ambition of the study has been to identify best practice political strategies, which in the given context are more likely to lead to long-term sustainable societal developments. Results have, throughout the study and at a final round table in Tromsø, been validated though consultations with experts, and key stakeholders and representatives from Arctic cities, It is a basic assumption of the study that successful and sustainable society development depends on holistic and integrated approach to economic, social, environmental and spatial planning informed by long-term strategic goals, framework conditions and planning. This approach, which undergirds the analysis, is illustrated in Figure 1-1. Figure 1-1 An integrated approach to sustainable society development Key research questions guiding the research are: 1: What are the main opportunities and challenges of Arctic cities in the context of globalisation, climate change, urbanisation and migration flows? 2: Which strategies and policy choices are more likely to lead to sustainable society development in Arctic cities? The results of the study will be able to inform and guide Arctic cities in their strategic considerations and decisions for sustainable society development. 5 2. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS The following pages will summarize the key conclusions from the analysis. The analysis of context conditions is based on a comparison of six case cities, whereas the analysis of city strategies is based on an in-depth analysis of two cities, Gällivare and Tromsø, supplemented by stakeholder perspectives from Luleå. Afterwards, results have been discussed and validated at the a Tromsø roundtable with broad participation from public, private and civil society stakeholders. On this background, the analysis provides conclusions and reflections on the dynamics of urban society development in the Arctic. Further research could add additional insight into the specific dynamics we have identified. Overall, the study confirms that long-term sustainable society development needs to encompass and integrate economic, social, spatial and environmental planning, guided by strong and long- term strategic decision making. In reality, these five driving forces interact closely, however for analytical clarity, we summarise key results by looking at these five driving forces one-by-one. Economy Situation report: Economic growth varies across case cities, with no apparent relation to the country or type of city (a knowledge city, capital or a smaller natural resource-based city). In some cities, economic growth is driven by natural resource extraction, where in particular rising ore demand from emerging economies is a key driver; in other cities, growth is driven by knowledge and high-tech opportunities well explored by key city stakeholders. STUDY RECOMMMENDATIONS ON CITY STRATEGIES FOR ECONOMY  Diversification of economic base  Developing a conducive business infrastructure  Attracting investments Recommendations on city strategies: Developing a diversified economic base of the city makes the city more robust to fluctuations within a single sector and more attractive for external investments. Whereas growth for a period in time may be driven by natural resource extraction – as we see in particular for some of the smaller case cities - the analysis indicates that developing complementary economic sectors is key to long-term sustainability and growth. Cities also seem to benefit from progressive development of public/private partnerships, good business support and strong relationships with regional, capital and EU stakeholders aiming to attract investments from outside. Here, not least opportunities arising from the heightened geo-strategic significance of the region should be explored. Tourism based on wild-life and nature experiences stands out as an opportunity not sufficiently explored by cities in the region. Finally, economic master planning and risk management have been emphasised a valuable tools to promote economic growth. STUDY RECOMMENDATIONS ON CITY STRATEGIES FOR SOCIETY  Retaining population and attracting resourceful citizens. Education institutions and strong city branding are key factors for this  Fostering openness towards outside world and towards diversity, e.g. through cultural offers.  Ensuring motivation and private initiative  Improving service quality and  Involving citizens 6 Society: Situation report: The demographic base and development vary across our case cities. Especially one of the smaller natural resource-based cities is challenged by population outflow and a low education rate among citizens, whereas larger knowledge cities being regional and university centres generally experience an influx of resourceful residents. All cities are quite diverse, with indigenous Sami communities and a lower rate of residents with immigrant background. Recommendations on city strategies: To retain populations, cities benefit from having or developing post-secondary education institutions. When this is not possible, best practice options indicated by the study include partnerships on distance education with nearby education institutions or ICT based-education services. Gender equality strategies may be needed to counter specific challenges of population outflux among women, Clearly branding the city as "in growth, green, diverse, open to the outside world and with a vibrant cultural life" is also crucial to attracting resourceful citizens in an increasing international competition between cities. Based on the study, we also recommend cities to develop a progressive and systematic approach to citizen involvement, ensuring meeting spaces where citizens and subcultures can meet in creative interchange, and stimulating private initiative and motivation among citizens and civil society. Urban planning and infrastructure Situation report: High accessibility and infrastructure is vital to the peripherally located Arctic cities. Mid-size university cities in the study are, not surprisingly, generally better connected than smaller resource-based cities. Nuuk is particularly challenged by long and costly travel fees to Greenland. In addition to physical connections, the cities have well-developed ICT infrastructure. In terms of urban planning, not least managing increased urbanisation and diversity of cities are of crucial importance today; some cities being challenged in accommodating rapid influx of new and diverse residents. STUDY RECOMMENDATIONS ON CITY STRATEGIES FOR URBAN PLANNING  Improving accessibility of cities  Urban planning promoting city cohesion and intercultural relations and meeting citizens need  Developing ICT and communications Recommendations on city strategies: In terms of urban planning, cities benefit from thinking strategically and long term when it comes to ensuring a coherent, well-connected city that meets citizens' needs now and tomorrow. In the increasing global competition between cities today, the study indicates that cities need to invest proactively in good connections internally and externally, and to an increasing extent also East-West rather than North-South. Also cies need to carry out urban planning from a citizens' needs perspective. Not only in terms of meeting present service demands for e.g. housing and schools, but also in terms of proactive urban planning making the city attractive to present and new residents - e.g. through strategic development and location of business and cultural institutions - and ensuring a cohesive city meeting diverse needs and a green perspective integrated into urban planning. STUDY RECOMMENDATIONS ON CITY STRATEGIES FOR CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENT  Green growth strategies as e.g. influencing the energy consumption and CO2 emissions of population and business; adapting to climate change, managing pollution, development of "green" infrastructure and "green" services  Climate and environment Situation report: Although all located in the Arctic Regions climate varies to some extent between case cities, due to i.e. location around the Gulf Stream, inland or sea location etc. Historically and 7 presently, this impacts opportunities of cities: Climatic changes imply increased geo-strategic significance of the Arctic region in terms of e.g. natural resource exploitation, new trade routes, transport and tourism opportunities. The study further shows that a "green" city profile is a factor of growing importance to attract resourceful citizens. The environmental situation of Arctic cities is also shaped by the economic base of the city, e.g. the presence of heavy production and industry. Recommendations on city strategies: In terms of local environment, the study recommends that cities think more progressively in terms of green growth measures than is presently the case, to both ensure a long sustainable local environment and to make the city attractive for residents. Relevant measures include influencing the energy consumption and CO2 emissions of population and business; adapting to climate change, managing pollution, development of "green" infrastructure and "green" services (e.g. eco-tourism; eco-friendly architecture and construction). STUDY RECOMMENDATIONS ON CITY STRATEGIES FOR GOVERNANCE  Applying a long-term strategic perspective on planning  Ensuring an institutional set-up that promotes strong and long-term decision making  An open attitude towards external actors (regional, national, supranational) Governance Situation report: The case cities are governed by city councils, in one instance with a parliamentary system. The cities are, to varying degrees, intertwined in larger administrative structures on regional, national and supra-national level. Recommendations on city strategies: The study clearly illustrates that long-term strategic decision making and strong leadership is vital for long-term sustainable growth. Cities, though, may face what appears to be contradictory concerns, e.g. between natural resource exploitation and environmental concerns. To the extent possible, the study indicates that cities may be able to "transcend" such contradictory concerns adapting a long-term sustainability perspective; one example may be green growth strategies. In general, the study highlights the need for long-term strategic decision making and for cities to proactively explore the opportunities that arise in the wake of heightened geo-strategic significance of the region, e.g. in attracting and developing partnerships with business, investors and other significant stakeholders, in actively seeking the exchange of experience and partnerships with other Arctic cities. as well as branding the city to make it attractive for residents. An open and positive relation to regional, national and supranational structures appears to be an asset. 8 3. A CASE STUDY TO GAIN PERSPECTIVE ON THE ARCTIC REGION To ensure a broad and comparative perspective, the study is based on case studies of six Arctic cities from four different countries, informed by existing evidence in the field. The six case cities include:  Luleå, Sweden  Gällivare, Sweden  Narvik, Norway  Tromsø, Norway  Nuuk, Greenland  Oulu, Finland. Through extensive desk research, an initial mapping of significant context conditions for all six cities was carried out, resulting in six case city profiles, where cities are mapped on the parameters listed in the table below. We recommend consulting the city profiles in Chapter 7 to get a comprehensive insight into the case cities. Table 3-1 Content of city profiles Urban planning and Climate and Economy Society physical structures environment GDP (regional) Political situation both Infrastructure Main challenges and changes nationally and locally Economic growth/ trends Accessibility Public regulation and green (locally) Age distributions growth strategies Key business sectors Populations trends Greenhouse gas emissions Public versus private sector Educational level Waste production and Natural resources / Rate of foreigners recycling extractives in area Composition of immigrants Employment and unemployment Indigenous people Crime Health Note: The city profiles can be found in the Appendix. Subsequently two of the cities have been studied further in-depth, namely Tromsø and Gällivare (focus cities), in order to provide further insight into the context conditions and strategic policy choices of cities, and to assess the impact of policy choices on sustainable society development. To provide a further perspective on the two focus cities, survey results have also been gathered for Luleå. The two focus cities are chosen as "archetypes" for cities in the region:  Tromsø is a mid-size university city in the Arctic region. Although the development of the city historically has been based on natural resources (fishing, etc.), today a large university, a number of research institutions and a rich cultural life are key to the city's development. Tromsø has a large public sector due to the University, the University Hospital, several research institutes, the Regional Councils sede etc. 9  Gällivare is a small mining city in the region, with an economy highly dependent on the mining industry. The population is a less educated than the population of Tromsø and the city has few educational institutions. The two cities also differ in terms of accessibility and infrastructure as well as in political and cultural differences between Sweden and Norway. Although national differences admittedly may influence city choices and opportunities, as the Swedish and Norwegian context are rather similar on many parameters, we find the comparison not only possible but also useful for ensuring an even broader perspective on strategic opportunities. The research was carried out in three phases, as illustrated in Figure 3-1. Initially, city profiles were developed through desk research. In-depth studies of focus cities were conducted though a small scale survey, focus groups and a stakeholder interview with a high ranking municipal public official. To ensure a nuanced assessment, survey and cross-sectorial focus groups have been carried out with representatives from three different stakeholder groups: namely public sector, business and civil society. We underscore that as the survey is not based on representative sampling and data is, as such, of quasi-qualitative character. Nevertheless, this provides a good impression of the cities, which in many cases points in the same direction and thus validates data obtained from the desk research, focus groups and stakeholder interviews. Although not a focus city, we have chosen to include Luleå in the survey to provide further perspective as a Swedish knowledge-city. Finally, results of the analysis have been presented and discussed in the round table discussion in Tromsø in October with participation from political decision makers, the private sector, civil society and experts. See Annex I for a detailed description of Study design and method. Figure 3-1 Phases of analysis 10 4. DRIVING FORCES IN SUSTAINABLE SOCIETY DEVELOPMENT We depart from the assumption that urban development is shaped by, on the one hand, context conditions and historic developments and, on the other, strategic choices of key decision makers. In our analysis, we aim to assess the impact of strategic choices taking into consideration the advantages and disadvantages of the respective context as illustrated by Figure 4-1. In "real life", policy choices and context conditions are hard to separate, as city strategies to a high extent seek to manage and are defined by context conditions. For the analytical focus of the analysis though, the separation is useful. Figure 4-1 Analytical focus of the analysis: Outcome of policy choices (2) taking into consideration framework conditions (1) In modern society, there may be many path(s) to urban development depending on the city, structural conditions, historical background, cultural preferences and political choices. However, to ensure long-term sustainable society growth through long-term strategic planning, cities and societies need to balance economic development with considerations for a cohesive society, a sustainable climate and environment, and hence unite all of the above elements into city and urban planning. We have integrated these five driving forces of modern society development (society, economy, environment, urban planning and governance) into a coherent model for sustainable society development, as illustrated in . In the model:  The inner circle relates to context conditions and rating illustrates city performance on outcome conditions (key indicator performance). All six case cities are assessed. This provides an answer to research question 1 on key challenges and conditions of Arctic Cities (Chapter5)  The outer circle illustrates the strategic effort of cities, and the rating illustrates the assessed substance and quality of the strategic effort. Only the two focus cities are assessed. This provides an answer to research question 2 on key strategies to be applied by cities. (Chapter 6). We describe this in further detail in the following: