SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY NOTES FOR PRIORITY DEVELOPMENT SECTORS IN BOTSWANA Mining, Agriculture, Energy, Tourism and Water 17 July 2015 Environment and Development Services – International, UK and The Southern African Institute for Environmental Assessment, Namibia in association with UNDP-Botswana SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY NOTES FOR PRIORITY DEVELOPMENT SECTORS IN BOTSWANA Mining, Agriculture, Tourism, Energy and Water By Barry Dalal-Clayton Environment and Development Services – International www.eds-international.org and Peter Tarr Southern African Institute for Environmental Assessment www.saiea.com CONTENTS Acknowledgements and caveats 4 Acronyms and abbreviations 5 Executive summary 7 1 Introduction 11 1.1 Background 1.1.1 Anchoring the Vision Beyond 2016 and NDP11 on sustainable development principles and goals 11 1.1.2 Progress towards mainstreaming sustainable development and new challenges 12 1.1.3 Realising the post-2015 Framework in Botswana 12 1.1.4 Aim of this report 13 1.2 What is sustainable development? 13 1.3 What is sustainability appraisal and methodology 15 1.3.1 Schedule of steps followed in this study/process 17 2 Mining sector 22 2.1 Baseline situation in the mining sector 2.1.1 Relative importance to economy and national development 22 2.1.2 Policy and legislative framework 22 2.1.3 Institutional framework 22 2.1.4 Mineral resources 23 2.1.5 Prospecting and mining trends 24 2.1.6 Existing environmental impacts 25 2.2 Development scenarios for the mining sector 26 2.2.1 Scenario summary 28 2.3 Sustainability appraisal of the mining sector 29 2.3.1 Selection of activities for appraisal 29 2.3.2 Overall perspective on the sustainability of the mining sector 30 2.3.3 Sustainability appraisal of selected activity 32 2.4 Conclusions and implications for national planning 34 3 Agriculture sector 36 3.1 Baseline situation in the agriculture sector 36 3.1.1 Relative importance to the economy and national development 36 3.1.2 Livestock production 36 3.1.3 Arable agriculture 38 3.1.4 Policy and legislative framework 39 3.1.5 Institutional framework 41 3.1.6 Sustainability issues in the agricultural sector 41 3.2 Development scenarios for the agriculture sector 41 3.2.1 Scenario summary 45 3.3 Sustainability appraisal of the agriculture sector 46 3.3.1 Selection of activities for appraisal 46 3.3.2 Overall perspective on the sustainability of the agriculture sector 47 3.3.3 Sustainability appraisal of selected activities 49 3.4 Conclusions and implications for national planning 55 1 4 Energy sector 56 4.1 Baseline situation in the energy sector 56 4.1.1 Relative importance to economy and national development 56 4.1.2 Policy and legislative framework 56 4.1.3 Institutional arrangements 56 4.1.4 Energy resources and products 57 4.1.5 Access to energy 61 4.1.6 Energy consumption 61 4.1.7 Power infrastructure 62 4.1.8 Sustainability implications 62 4.2 Development scenarios for the energy sector 63 4.2.1 Scenario summary 66 4.3 Sustainability appraisal of the energy sector 66 4.3.1 Selection of activities for appraisal 66 4.3.2 Overall perspective on the sustainability of the energy sector 67 4.3.3 Sustainability appraisal of selected activities 69 4.4 Conclusions and implications for national planning 73 5 Tourism sector 75 5.1 Baseline situation in the tourism sector 75 5.1.1 Relative importance to economy and national development 75 5.1.2 Policy and legislative framework 76 5.1.3 Institutional framework 77 5.1.4 Main resources and sector products 78 5.1.5 Sustainability issues 78 5.2 Development scenarios for the tourism sector 80 5.2.1 Scenario summary 85 5.3 Sustainability appraisal of the tourism sector 85 5.3.1 Selection of activities for appraisal 85 5.3.2 Overall perspective on the sustainability of the tourism sector 86 5.3.3 Sustainability appraisal of selected activities 87 5.4 Conclusions and implications for national planning 93 6 Water sector 95 6.1 Baseline situation in the water sector 95 6.1.2 Policy and legislative framework 95 6.1.3 Institutional framework 96 6.1.4 Main water resources and sector products 96 6.1.5 Sustainability issues 100 6.2 Development scenarios for the water sector 104 6.2.1 Scenario summary 107 6.3 Sustainability appraisal of the water sector 108 6.3.1 Selection of activities for appraisal 108 6.3.2 Overall perspective on the sustainability of the water sector 108 6.3.3 Sustainability appraisal of selected activity 110 6.4 Conclusions and implications for national planning 114 7 Cross sector linkages and cross-cutting issues 116 7.1 Cross-sector linkages 116 7.2 Cross-cutting issues 120 7.2.1 Infrastructure 120 7.2.2 HIV and AIDS 122 7.2.3 Rural policies 123 7.2.4 Land tenure 124 7.2.5 Transboundary issues 124 2 8 Conclusions and recommendations 126 References 132 Appendices 134 1 Lists of participants in scenario workshops 135 2 Lists of participants in sustainability appraisal workshops 136 3 Baseline information for the mining sector 138 4 Baseline information for the agriculture sector 141 5 Baseline information for the energy sector 143 6 Baseline information for the tourism sector 148 7 Baseline information for the water sector 154 8 Supplementary information on Botswana’s infrastructure 162 9 Definitions of terms 166 3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS AND CAVEATS This volume of Advisory Notes is one of the products of a programme of support by UNDP-Botswana to the Government of Botswana to integrate sustainable development into the process of developing Botswana’s Vision Beyond 2016 and NDP11. It has been prepared by Professor Barry Dalal-Clayton, Environment and Development Services – International, UK, and Dr Peter Tarr, Southern African Institute for Environmental Assessment, Namibia. Guidance and inputs were provided by Dr Muyeye Chambwera, UNDP-Botswana, and by Ms Tsalano Kedikilwe, Department of Environmental Affairs, Ministry of Environment, Wildlife and Tourism, Namibia. Helpful support throughout the process of desk research and workshops leading to preparing these Advisory Notes was provided by Kudzani Koketso, UNDP intern. The source of all data provided in this report is indicated in the text, eg as published documents, unpublished information provided by government officials or online resources (url links are given). For some of the figures indicated in the sector scenarios (in chapters 2-6), where reliable data were not available, we have used guesstimates based on expert opinion given during scenario and sustainability appraisal workshops. 4 LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ARAP Advanced Rainfed Arable Programme ALDEP Arable Lands Development Programme BAMB Botswana Agricultural Marketing Board B&B Bed and breakfast BD Biodiversity BECS Botswana Ecotourism Certification System BEWRA Botswana Energy and Water Regulatory Agency BMC Botswana Meat Commission BOS Bureau of Standards BPC Botswana Power Corporation BRICS Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa BWP Botswana Pula CA Conservation agriculture CBNRM Community-based natural resource management CBM Coal bed methane CLF Coal to liquids facility CSR Corporate social responsibility DEA Department of Environmental Affairs, Botswana DDP District Development Plan DGS Department of Geological Survey DMS Department of Meteorological Services DRC Democratic Republic of Congo DWA Department of Water Affairs DWMPC Department of Waste Management and Pollution Control EA Environmental assessment EDS Environment and Development Services - International EIA Environmental impact assessment EMP Environmental management plan EPA Economic Partnership Agreement ESMP Environmental and Social Management Plan EU European Union FDI Foreign direct investment FMD Foot and Mouth Disease Forex Foreign exchange GDP Gross domestic product GDSA Gaborone Declaration for Sustainability in Africa GEF Global Environment Facility GoB Government of Botswana gt Giga tonne Gwh Giga Watt Hour ha Hectare HIV/AIDS Human immunodeficiency virus / Acquired immune deficiency syndrome HWC Human-wildlife conflict ICMM International Council for Mining and Minerals ILM Integrated land management IPP Independent power producer IRM Integrated rangeland management IRR Internal rate of return ISPAAD Integrated Support Programme for Arable Agriculture Development IWRM Integrated water resources management KAZA Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area LIMCOM Limpopo Watercourse Commission LIMID Livestock management and infrastructure development LPG Liquified petroleum gas mcts million carats M&E Monitoring and evaluation MDGs Millennium development goals MEWT Ministry of Environment Wildlife and Tourism, Botswana 5 MFDP Ministry of Finance and Development Planning, Botswana MIC Middle income country MICE Meetings, incentives, conferences and exhibitions MLGRD Ministry of Local Government and Rural Development, Botswana MMEWR Ministry of Minerals, Energy and Water Resources, Botswana MoA Ministry of Agriculture, Botswana MSW Municipal solid waste mtpa million tonnes per annum mt/yr million tonnes per year MW Mega Watt NAMPADD National Master Plan for Agricultural and Dairy Development NDP National Development Plan NGO Non-governmental organisation NOAA National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration, USA NSC North-South Carrier NSO National Strategy Office, Botswana OKACOM Permanent Okavango River Basin Water Commission ORASECOM Orange-Senqu River Commission OUZIT Upper Zambezi International Tourism Initiative PPP Policy, plan or programme pppd per person per day R&D Research and development RBO River basin organisation RETOSA Regional Tourism Organisation of Southern Africa RSA Republic of South Africa RSAP-IWRM Regional Strategic Action Plan for Integrated Water Resources Development and Management SA Sustainability appraisal SACU South African Customs Union SADC Southern African Development Community SAIEA Southern African Institute for Environmental Assessment SAPP Southern African Power Pool SDGs Sustainable development goals SEA Strategic environmental assessment SME Small and medium-sized enterprise SOE State-owned enterprise STD Sexually transmitted disease TDS Total dissolved solids TFCA Transfrontier conservation areas TKR Trans Kalahari railway TWG Thematic working group UDP Urban development plan UHT Ultra high temperature UNDP-Botswana UN Development Programme, Botswana USA United States of America VFR Visiting friends and relatives WAP Water Apportionment Board, Botswana WAVES Wealth accounting and the valuation of ecosystem services WCED World Commission on Environment and Development WHO World Health Organisation WTO World Toilet Organisation WUC Water Utilities Corporation ZAMCOM Zambezi Watercourse Commission 6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY UNDP-Botswana is supporting the Government of Botswana to integrate sustainable development into the process of developing Botswana’s Vision Beyond 2016 and Eleventh National Development Plan (NDP11). This report presents a technical appraisal of the sustainable development elements and interactions of five priority sectors that are likely to be central to the new Vision (which will guide the orientation of NDP11), and determine how they are likely to contribute to the goal of sustainable development and achievement of Vision priorities. The five sectors addressed include: mining, agriculture, energy, tourism and water. Chapter 1 is an introduction providing a background to Botswana’s processes to develop a new national Vision and NDP11 and how UNDP-Botswana is helping to anchor these instruments on sustainable development goals and principles. It discusses some of the challenges of mainstreaming sustainable development and realising the UN’s Post-2015 Framework in Botswana. Some progress has already been made, particularly through government’s commitment to making sustainable development a leading goal and foundation of NDP11. But this commitment also needs to be reflected as an umbrella goal of the new Vision. Of particular note is Botswana’s selection to spearhead implementation of the Gaborone Declaration for Sustainability in Africa (GDSA). An outline is provided of the concept of sustainable development and a discussion of the aims of sustainability appraisal. In this report, sustainability appraisal is used to mean a planning and decision support tool to analyse the social, economic, environmental and governance dimensions of development in an integrated manner to inform the formulation of policies, programmes and plans and the development projects that may flow from them. The steps followed included:  Desk analysis for each sector focused on policies/regulations and their key thrusts and requirements, and identification of key baseline data sourced from available documents – to produce sector baseline profiles.  Analysis of the draft Framework for a Long-Term Vision Beyond 2016 (version dated 27 October 2014) to identify objectives, strategies, key goals and initiatives envisaged for each of the five priority sectors.  Facilitated scenario workshops involving invited experts to develop scenarios (baseline; low growth or business-as-usual; and high growth) to illustrate how each sector might play out over the forthcoming decade and the likely key thrusts, developments/initiatives or projects.  Facilitated sustainability appraisal workshops involving invited experts.  Synthesis and preparation of final report. Workshop participants, attending in their personal capacity as sector experts, were drawn from members of Thematic Working Groups as well as the agencies/ministries leading the Vision and NDP11/DDP4/UDP8 processes at national and district level (National Strategy Office, Ministry of Finance and Development Planning and Ministry of Local Government and Rural Development), the private sector, academia and NGOs. Chapters 2 - 6 address the five priority sectors, respectively: mining, agriculture, energy, tourism and water. Each chapter follows an identical format with sections discussing: the baseline situation, development scenarios, a sustainability appraisal of the sector, and conclusions and implications for national planning. The baselines profiles describe a range of factors for each sector: the relative importance of the sector to the economy and national development; policy, legislative and institutional frameworks; the main resources, products, activities and infrastructure; key sustainability issues; and key statistics. 7 Scenarios are developed for each sector. First, the factors currently driving or likely to drive the sector in the future are discussed. Then three scenarios are presented for each sector in tabular format, with assumptions set out:  Baseline scenario (the current situation) – drawing from the baseline profile;  Business as usual scenario – essentially organic growth extrapolating current plans and trends (i.e. things in the pipeline or likely to happen anyway over the next six years);  High growth scenario – the goal of the draft Vision - identifying how projects and other activities in the sector are likely to play out over the next 10 years, the reasons, how such growth can be achieved, and what factors may enhance or impede it. The scenarios are presented as bulleted factors which can be compared under each scenario column. Drawing from the baseline profile and scenarios, the main projects and other activities likely to be implemented over the next 10 years in the sector are listed and, from these, a limited number selected by workshop participants are then subjected to sustainability appraisal. An overall perspective of the sustainability of the sector is provided, followed by a sustainability appraisal in tabular format. The tables analyse how the selected projects and activities are likely to contribute to, or impede, achieving the goals of the four TWG themes (economy and employment; social upliftment; environment; and governance, safety and security) . In practice, these themes represent the pillars of sustainable development. The analysis is presented in bullet format indicating both the positive and negative impacts of each project or activity on these pillars/themes, and how to either enhance or mitigate them, respectively. For each sector appraisal, an ‘on balance’ perspective summarises the key pros and cons of the appraised activities. In addition, the key assumptions are indicated –factors it is assumed will pertain and that are needed to achieve a high-growth scenario for Botswana (as envisaged in the draft Vision Framework); and the main risks are listed – those that might impede the listed assumptions or the achievement of high growth. The key synergies and antagonisms within and between sectors are also discussed. Chapter 7 deals with cross-sector linkages and cross-cutting issues, including infrastructure, HIV and AIDS, rural policies, land tenure and transboundary issues. In planning for, and investing in, Botswana’s future development, it will be important to identify these linkages between sectors to help indicate where there is a need to work together to, for example:  promote and enhance outcomes beneficial to linked sectors;  avoid or minimise developments in a sector that could impact negatively on other sectors or inadvertently undermine or impede development policies or initiatives in other sectors;  analyse issues of mutual concern;  address common or interacting concerns;  jointly promote solutions to challenges;  engage in integrated planning. The report highlights a number of institutional shortcomings in the current arrangements, which include:  gaps and overlaps in environmental policy formulation;  inadequate coordination , integration of activities and appropriate land use zonation (so there is a need for consistent policies, planning, implementation and monitoring) (Box 7.1);  limited monitoring and response capability;  insufficient coordination;  lack of capacity to resolve differences; and  inadequate response capability. Chapter 8 sets out a number of overall conclusions and makes some recommendations. Key ones include:  A significant effort is need to raise awareness amongst stakeholders (government, private sector and civil society) at all levels in Botswana about what sustainable development is, how it can be 8